Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[BTS]

Projected 26-man Roster

C - Jansen (nm)

1B - Guerrero Jr. (nm)

2B/SS - Semien (18)

SS - Bichette (nm)

3B/2B/OF - Biggio

CF - Springer (32)

LF - Gurriel (4.5)

RF - Hernandez (A1 (2.7))

1B - Tellez (nm)

 

CF - Grichuk (10.333)

C - McGuire (nm, no options)

3B/2B/SS - Espinal (nm)

OF - Davis (nm)

 

SP - Ryu (20)

SP - Ray (8)

SP - Pearson (nm)

SP - Matz (5.2)

SP - Roark (12)

 

 

RP - Romano (nm)

RP - Yates (5.5)

RP - Dolis (1.5)

RP - Phelps (1.75)

SP/RP - Chatwood (3)

SP - Stripling (A2 (2.5))

RP - Merryweather (nm, no options)

SP/RP - Borucki (nm, no options)

 

 

 

Also on 40-man Roster

SP - Zeuch (nm)

SP - Kay (nm)

RP - Waguespack (nm)

RP - Luciano (nm)

RP - Murphy (nm)

RP - Tice (nm)

RP - Payamps (nm)

C - Adams (nm)

C - Moreno (nm)

SS - Lopez (nm)

OF - Palacios (nm)

SP - Thornton (nm)

RP - Hatch (nm)

C - Kirk (nm)

 

 

On 40-man roster = 40

 

 

12 guaranteed contracts = $121.78M

12 near-minimum contracts ~ $6.9M

2 arbitration contracts ~ 5.2M

Yamaguchi = 3.175

 

Total 26-man roster projected payroll = $137.055M

Edited February 12, 2021 by BTS

[BTS]

Some interesting early-offseason decisions to be made:

 

- Do they pick up the 9.5M option on Anderson? (probably)

- Do they non-tender Shaw (probably) or Cole (probably not)?

- Do they cut their losses and eat the 12M Roark sunk cost? (probably not)

- Is there any reason to retain an out-of-options Reese McGuire? (meh)

[Grant77]

I have doubts that Danny Jansen has already lost his starting catcher's position to Kirk. There are a lot of reasons to believe that he is on the cusp of being a very good starting catcher.

 

I would be interested in bringing back all of Bass, Ray, and Shoemaker on 1 year deals and would not pick up the option on Anderson. The emergence of Tellez makes Shaw expendable in my opinion.

[saskjayfan]

Some interesting early-offseason decisions to be made:

 

- Do they pick up the 9.5M option on Anderson? (probably)

- Do they non-tender Shaw (probably) or Cole (probably not)?

- Do they cut their losses and eat the 12M Roark sunk cost? (probably not)

- Is there any reason to retain an out-of-options Reese McGuire? (meh)

 

Why would they pick up Anderson's option? I actually think they will tender Shaw a contract. They tendered Drury a contract.

[Laika]

I think they won’t pick up Anderson’s option. They’ll gamble that they can upgrade on him for less money in what will be a weird offseason.

 

McGuire probably hangs around as long as possible... if Tellez has offseason knee surgery or something Kirk might be the DH

 

I agree that they likely tender Shaw. Shouldn’t cost much, insures 3B. Ideally he’s just a veteran bench player though

[Abomination]

Why would they pick up Anderson's option? I actually think they will tender Shaw a contract. They tendered Drury a contract.

 

And hopefully they learned something from that. Shaw has actually had some nice seasons though. IMO he doesn't really add much to the team, so I kind of hope they don't. I don't think either decision is necessarily wrong.

[Dick_Pole]

The Jays have about 10 pitchers who could put up Anderson-like numbers for less than his salary combined. He's expensive depth and $21 million for expensive depth is poor asset allocation. I'd rather they use the money for some Liriano type of deals if they can't get some top end pitching.

[BTS]

I have doubts that Danny Jansen has already lost his starting catcher's position to Kirk. There are a lot of reasons to believe that he is on the cusp of being a very good starting catcher.

 

I would be interested in bringing back all of Bass, Ray, and Shoemaker on 1 year deals and would not pick up the option on Anderson. The emergence of Tellez makes Shaw expendable in my opinion.

 

I agree on Jansen. I think he starts 80+ games next year. Seems likely that Kirk gets the other half and DH's a fair bit when he's not catching. Could also see Kirk start in AAA (if there is a AAA).

 

I also agree on Ray, and especially Shoemaker. I'd bring Bass back on a cheap 1-year deal, but I think on a good team he's probably your 5th or 6th best reliever, and I wouldn't go much higher than the 1.5M he made in 2020.

[saskjayfan]

And hopefully they learned something from that. Shaw has actually had some nice seasons though. IMO he doesn't really add much to the team though.

 

Shaw's a stop gap to Martin or Groshans. I don't think they are going to sign Didi so he's a decent stopgap. I'm pretty sure Martin and Groshans will start in the minors next year. I'm not sure what Shaw's arb number will be, but I don't believe it will be that high. Anderson's 9.5 mil can go towards paying Bauer or Paxton.

[Dick_Pole]

Yes please. I'll give this thread a like when BTS has to edit his first post to account for Bauer's 1-year $30M+ deal.

[BTS]

Anyone know who has to be added to the 40-man this offseason?

[BTS]

I think they won’t pick up Anderson’s option. They’ll gamble that they can upgrade on him for less money in what will be a weird offseason.

 

McGuire probably hangs around as long as possible... if Tellez has offseason knee surgery or something Kirk might be the DH

 

I agree that they likely tender Shaw. Shouldn’t cost much, insures 3B. Ideally he’s just a veteran bench player though

 

This is a good point, and one I probably didn't give enough consideration. Anderson's option likely makes no sense in what will probably be a very weird/tepid offseason.

[Dick_Pole]

This team is absolutely built for Bauer. Lots of near-term budget space until the young guys hit arb. Perfect for a one-year overpay. Him plus Ryu plus Pearson assuming an optimistic development path plus the offense plus your pick of about 15 guys to fill out the pen is a pretty legit contender in 2019 format playoffs.

[BTS]

This team is absolutely built for Bauer. Lots of near-term budget space until the young guys hit arb. Perfect for a one-year overpay. Him plus Ryu plus Pearson assuming an optimistic development path plus the offense plus your pick of about 15 guys to fill out the pen is a pretty legit contender in 2019 format playoffs.

 

I'll be shocked if Bauer signs a 1-year deal. He's been asked recently if he's still only looking to go a year at a time, and said he's going to consider all options. I'm guessing if the team wants him it will require like 200-250M. Which the should absolutely do.

[Grant77]

I agree on Jansen. I think he starts 80+ games next year. Seems likely that Kirk gets the other half and DH's a fair bit when he's not catching. Could also see Kirk start in AAA (if there is a AAA).

 

I also agree on Ray, and especially Shoemaker. I'd bring Bass back on a cheap 1-year deal, but I think on a good team he's probably your 5th or 6th best reliever, and I wouldn't go much higher than the 1.5M he made in 2020.

 

I like Bass' versatility and would give him 3-4 million. His extremely high groundball rate is a nice weapon in some situations. He's also got good velocity and a track record of health.

 

Kirk in AAA would not surprise me at all. He still has things to learn on the defensive side.

[Spanky99]

This team is absolutely built for Bauer. Lots of near-term budget space until the young guys hit arb. Perfect for a one-year overpay. Him plus Ryu plus Pearson assuming an optimistic development path plus the offense plus your pick of about 15 guys to fill out the pen is a pretty legit contender in 2019 format playoffs.

 

Yup.

[Corporal Valdal]

Do we Look at a upgrade in CF with someone like Jackie Bradly Jr?

[Dick_Pole]

I'm also optimistic that the FO sees this as an 86 win team that's on an ideal win curve for FA spending.

[Corporal Valdal]

I'm also optimistic that the FO sees this as an 86 win team that's on an ideal win curve for FA spending.

 

Honestly, if the FO doesn't go out and spend this offseason when we are probably one of only 10-15 teams that have owners who have made money during the pandemic and can spend money. Im sure rogers will throw $30-70 million to the FO and say go spending it long term on something

[Spanky99]

I'll be shocked if Bauer signs a 1-year deal. He's been asked recently if he's still only looking to go a year at a time, and said he's going to consider all options. I'm guessing if the team wants him it will require like 200-250M. Which the should absolutely do.

 

Where has he changed his mind... Link please... also he still should be a target, everyone knows our direction.

[Dick_Pole]

Honestly, if the FO doesn't go out and spend this offseason when we are probably one of only 10-15 teams that have owners who have made money during the pandemic and can spend money. Im sure rogers will throw $30-70 million to the FO and say go spending it long term on something

 

One thing that might be a factor is if the team is allowed to play in Toronto by then. Can't discount the fact that a. It'll be harder to recruit FA to play in an AAA stadium and b. Rogers will have less incentive to spend to show off in front of a Buffalo (or no) crowd. Most teams will have to deal with the latter depending on if fans are allowed back in and how much % of capacity. But the Jays are in a unique disadvantage with the former.

[Spanky99]

Do we Look at a upgrade in CF with someone like Jackie Bradly Jr?

 

Likely as a platoon, 4th OF

[connorp]

Do we Look at a upgrade in CF with someone like Jackie Bradly Jr?

 

Think the board agreed on Springer w/Gri being the 4th OF

[BTS]

Where has he changed his mind... Link please... also he still should be a target, everyone knows our direction.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/trevor-bauer-on-free-agency.html

 

"Again, I think it comes back to I just want a chance to win every year. I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that’s going to be a situation that’s good for me, I would consider it. I do think that in order to do the things that I want to do, I think I’m going to have to take on a little more risk than normal in those long-term contracts. …I’m not afraid of the one-year deals. I’m not afraid of the longer deals. It’s just going to be a case-by-case basis, and we’ll see what the situations look like."

 

Some big market team is going to throw $250M on the table and I'm guessing he won't be able to turn it down to go 1 year at a time.

[Spanky99]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/trevor-bauer-on-free-agency.html

 

"Again, I think it comes back to I just want a chance to win every year. I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that’s going to be a situation that’s good for me, I would consider it. I do think that in order to do the things that I want to do, I think I’m going to have to take on a little more risk than normal in those long-term contracts. …I’m not afraid of the one-year deals. I’m not afraid of the longer deals. It’s just going to be a case-by-case basis, and we’ll see what the situations look like."

 

Some big market team is going to throw $250M on the table and I'm guessing he won't be able to turn it down to go 1 year at a time.

 

Thank you, bud.

[Spanky99]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/trevor-bauer-on-free-agency.html

 

"Again, I think it comes back to I just want a chance to win every year. I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that’s going to be a situation that’s good for me, I would consider it. I do think that in order to do the things that I want to do, I think I’m going to have to take on a little more risk than normal in those long-term contracts. …I’m not afraid of the one-year deals. I’m not afraid of the longer deals. It’s just going to be a case-by-case basis, and we’ll see what the situations look like."

 

Some big market team is going to throw $250M on the table and I'm guessing he won't be able to turn it down to go 1 year at a time.

 

I still see him maxing 1 year deals.

[saskjayfan]

I find Paxton an interesting case. When you factor in Covid and what it did to revenues and Paxton's injury risk, I'm very interested in what his market looks like.

[Stangstag]

I'm also optimistic that the FO sees this as an 86 win team that's on an ideal win curve for FA spending.

 

I wouldn’t get your hopes up about spending this offseason. With the whole covid season, I can’t really see Rogers opening the purse until next offseason.

[glory]

Agreed about Buffalo. The Jays having to play there in 2021 could definitely factor into how successful they can be in signing free agents. There's no guarantee that they'll be allowed to play in Canada by the start of next season, so convincing a (good) FA to sign with a team that might have to play in a minor league park some/most/all season could be difficult. Plus, if there is a minor league season, how do you juggle the AAA affiliate in Buffalo with the Jays having to play there? Unless the Jays play in Dunedin instead. Lots of uncertainty there. Of course, money talks.

 

Anderson's option should not be picked up. As mentioned, there will probably be a slow free agent market after Covid, so $9m for someone like him would be absurd. Pay the buyout, and get someone better. Roark should be dumped, but don't think he will be. Over a 162 game season when he doesn't have to pitch against all East teams, he might go from awful to just bad. Plus the money isn't going anywhere, they have to pay him anyway, so unless he's traded for a worse contract belonging to a more useful player, they probably hold on to him.

 

I've said before I think there's going to be a s*** ton of non tenders this winter. I wouldn't make any unnecessary financial commitment until I know what's available. The supply is most likely going to exceed the demand. That's where the Jays can really take advantage (assuming Rogers will spend).

[connorp]

I find Paxton an interesting case. When you factor in Covid and what it did to revenues and Paxton's injury risk, I'm very interested in what his market looks like.

 

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