Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[max silver]

58 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

I still like the guy, but its definitely alarming he will have only played 50ish games in the first 2 years of a 5 year deal. And those 50 games were pretty abysmal.

Hard not to see the entire deal as potentially sunk cost.

He is probably primarily a DH going forward, not ideal.

I suspect that the intention was for Santander to share outfield/DH duties with Springer until Springer's deal expired with Santander shifting into more of a DH only role over time. It complicated matters that Springer had a monster bounceback season with the bat but morphed into a horrible outfield defender at the same time. 

Santander got off to a horrible start over the first 3'ish weeks and was showing signs of coming out of his funk shortly prior to blowing out his shoulder. We've barely seen a healthy Santander in a Blue Jays uniform and who knows what he'll look like once he finally comes back. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Stangstag said:

I still like the guy, but its definitely alarming he will have only played 50ish games in the first 2 years of a 5 year deal. And those 50 games were pretty abysmal.

Hard not to see the entire deal as potentially sunk cost.

He is probably primarily a DH going forward, not ideal.

I think a point to be made is that nobody could have realistically anticipated these injuries.  He wasn't someone with a long list of injury history, nor are these reoccurring injuries.  

This is bad luck. Santander fit a need (power) and by all accounts, brought a strong leadership voice to the clubhouse.  Sometimes sh*t happens.

[Terminator]

Too much Lukes hate.

He shouldn't be as good as he is but he has an ideal launch angle and doesn't strike out. Add in an average walk rate and good defense and he's fine as a strong side platoon guy.

He's twice the player that Tony Taintlicker is.

[Terminator]

Oh come on people

"Tony Taintlicker" should be flooding my inbox with "likes"

[Bob_Gratton]

19 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Now I really really wish that Kyle Tucker had taken our money

If he was really interested to sign here, he will be here. If Atkins was really all in on him like he was on Ohtani and Soto, he will have offered him simillar offers Dodgers and Mets did. This make me believe the front office wanted part away with Bichette from beginning, and to make this easier for fans to agree, they showed interest in Tucker, but at affordable price. When Tucker agreed in term with the Dodgers, Mets was quickly signed Bo after, coz they needed a good bat to replace Alonso. So the mistakes Jays did, wasn't signing Bregman, and have too much faith in Hamtander to bounce back to his 2022-2024 lvl

 

 

 

 

[sliderguy35]

51 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Too much Lukes hate.

He shouldn't be as good as he is but he has an ideal launch angle and doesn't strike out. Add in an average walk rate and good defense and he's fine as a strong side platoon guy.

He's twice the player that Tony Taintlicker is.

the problem is that the walk rate is kind of a mirage. high contact guys who chase a lot almost never have a league average walk rate. 

in the last 5 years, if you look at guys with a :

• chase rate above 30% (lukes was at 31%)
• overall contact rate above 85% (lukes was at 87.7%)
• with at least 250 PAs (lukes had 400+ last season)

there have been 38 total player seasons since 2021 and only 2(!) have an above league average walk rate, 2025 lukes and 2024 bryson stott. if his walk rate drops to like 6 or 7% (which is right around average for his chase rate / contact profile) and he doesn't start slugging any more, it's got a chance to turn into a real "alright now the tuxedo's seem kinda f***ed up" type of situation

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

Oh come on people

"Tony Taintlicker" should be flooding my inbox with "likes"

Wow!

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Bob_Gratton said:

If he was really interested to sign here, he will be here. If Atkins was really all in on him like he was on Ohtani and Soto, he will have offered him simillar offers Dodgers and Mets did. This make me believe the front office wanted part away with Bichette from beginning, and to make this easier for fans to agree, they showed interest in Tucker, but at affordable price. When Tucker agreed in term with the Dodgers, Mets was quickly signed Bo after, coz they needed a good bat to replace Alonso. So the mistakes Jays did, wasn't signing Bregman, and have too much faith in Hamtander to bounce back to his 2022-2024 lvl

 

 

 

 

[Stangstag]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I think a point to be made is that nobody could have realistically anticipated these injuries.  He wasn't someone with a long list of injury history, nor are these reoccurring injuries.  

This is bad luck. Santander fit a need (power) and by all accounts, brought a strong leadership voice to the clubhouse.  Sometimes sh*t happens.

Yes I agree, its s*** luck. He had played 150+ games for 3 straight seasons. Dont think he’s ever been this injured in his career.

Its annoying to have people shouting “told you so haha” when its just a complete fluke… like how was anyone to know?

[Stangstag]

4 hours ago, max silver said:

I suspect that the intention was for Santander to share outfield/DH duties with Springer until Springer's deal expired with Santander shifting into more of a DH only role over time. It complicated matters that Springer had a monster bounceback season with the bat but morphed into a horrible outfield defender at the same time. 

Santander got off to a horrible start over the first 3'ish weeks and was showing signs of coming out of his funk shortly prior to blowing out his shoulder. We've barely seen a healthy Santander in a Blue Jays uniform and who knows what he'll look like once he finally comes back. 

All im saying is im not so optimistic that a guy coming off 2 full seasons of injury is going to be a solid contributor.

Obviously it could happen, he could come back and be good. But common sense tells me he’s probably done being the same player he was from 2022-2024

[G-Snarls]

Saving money on Eric Lauer the Jays are 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Stangstag said:

All im saying is im not so optimistic that a guy coming off 2 full seasons of injury is going to be a solid contributor.

Obviously it could happen, he could come back and be good. But common sense tells me he’s probably done being the same player he was from 2022-2024

I'm holding out faint hope that Santander might be able to be a useful contributor later this season but based on how last season turned out I'm not going to hold my breath.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I'm holding out faint hope that Santander might be able to be a useful contributor later this season but based on how last season turned out I'm not going to hold my breath.

Oh im not even expecting to see him at all this year

[Brownie19]

51 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Oh im not even expecting to see him at all this year

Same, unfortunately.  I'd rather expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised if he provides anything.

[Jays24]

3 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Saving money on Eric Lauer the Jays are 

[Spanky__99]

 

[Olerud363.354]

14 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

the problem is that the walk rate is kind of a mirage. high contact guys who chase a lot almost never have a league average walk rate. 

in the last 5 years, if you look at guys with a :

• chase rate above 30% (lukes was at 31%)
• overall contact rate above 85% (lukes was at 87.7%)
• with at least 250 PAs (lukes had 400+ last season)

there have been 38 total player seasons since 2021 and only 2(!) have an above league average walk rate, 2025 lukes and 2024 bryson stott. if his walk rate drops to like 6 or 7% (which is right around average for his chase rate / contact profile) and he doesn't start slugging any more, it's got a chance to turn into a real "alright now the tuxedo's seem kinda f***ed up" type of situation

How different is this analysis if Lukes is the middle of the group?  Like chase above 30% and Lukes is 31% couldn't he be compared to guys between 27 and 35 or something?

Lukes also has a decade of minor league ball, and his line last year makes perfect sense when compared to his minor league numbers.  .289 .352 .420 minor hitter, and .259 .328 .400 or so last year.  

[Spanky__99]

That's a very good zoom interview, just saying. 👆

[Spanky__99]

Until Olerud ruins my connection.

 

[Spanky__99]

Jay's can role with 6 later, but their being smart with Bieber.

 

[Angrioter]

 

Healthy Santader is a very  bad player. Now with his injuries he suck. One of the worst deal ever for the jays

 

[Ryu In My House]

52 minutes ago, Angrioter said:

 

Healthy Santader is a very  bad player. Now with his injuries he suck. One of the worst deal ever for the jays

 

These are not the fWAR numbers of a very bad player when healthy...

[glory]

16 hours ago, Stangstag said:

All im saying is im not so optimistic that a guy coming off 2 full seasons of injury is going to be a solid contributor.

Obviously it could happen, he could come back and be good. But common sense tells me he’s probably done being the same player he was from 2022-2024

Yeah assuming he misses all/most of 2026, he will head into 2027 at age 32 after having two injury shortened seasons in a row. He literally has one skill, and shoulder injuries combined with aging may impact that moving forward.

Tony being cooked seems like a pretty fair expectation, IMO. Obviously would be great if he proves me wrong on that. 

[Olerud363.354]

36 minutes ago, glory said:

Tony being cooked seems like a pretty fair expectation, IMO. Obviously would be great if he proves me wrong on that. 

So don't we still have Eloy Jiminez?  Jiminez at this point is just as good as Tony.  Both had good seasons once, both will have ended up playing 50 games over 2 years.

Jiminez is two years younger.  Admittedly Jiminez has only had 1 healthy season (and not this decade) with Satander 3.  Jiminez has better minor league numbers and maybe more talent. 

The chance of either coming back is probably literally lower than Jesus Christ coming back this year.

Not even kidding.   On betting sites the chances of Jesus Christ coming back ends up being between 3 to 7%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/08/odds-of-jesus-christ-appearing-in-2026-double-beating-return-on-bitcoin  

It's a very weird thing and I honestly haven't looked into it much,  I would assume the payoff for Jesus Christ not coming back should be just below 1 year CD rates minus administrative costs then you could just make a bit of free money by accepting bets for it... but it is a bit higher than that.  

Not sure what the odds are on Jiminez or Satander coming back. 

 

[Pendleton]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

So don't we still have Eloy Jiminez?  Jiminez at this point is just as good as Tony.  Both had good seasons once, both will have ended up playing 50 games over 2 years.

Jiminez is two years younger.  Admittedly Jiminez has only had 1 healthy season (and not this decade) with Satander 3.  Jiminez has better minor league numbers and maybe more talent. 

The chance of either coming back is probably literally lower than Jesus Christ coming back this year.

Not even kidding.   On betting sites the chances of Jesus Christ coming back ends up being between 3 to 7%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/08/odds-of-jesus-christ-appearing-in-2026-double-beating-return-on-bitcoin  

It's a very weird thing and I honestly haven't looked into it much,  I would assume the payoff for Jesus Christ not coming back should be just below 1 year CD rates minus administrative costs then you could just make a bit of free money by accepting bets for it... but it is a bit higher than that.  

Not sure what the odds are on Jiminez or Satander coming back. 

 

Eloy looked like he was on his way to a JC comparison at one point, but not like this 

[Terminator]

Sounds like Bieber is fine and that starting him out slow is just a way to limit his innings this year as much as anything. That seems like it could be a new trend where you just sign extra starters and then claim vague injuries to keep them fresh for the duration of the season. The Dodgers do this every year. 

[Stangstag]

7 hours ago, Angrioter said:

 

Healthy Santader is a very  bad player. Now with his injuries he suck. One of the worst deal ever for the jays

 

No.

[Brownie19]

Berríos apologized to Blue Jays for leaving during WS: 'Bad decision'

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3477604

[Brownie19]

7 hours ago, Angrioter said:

 

Healthy Santader is a very  bad player. Now with his injuries he suck. One of the worst deal ever for the jays

 

C'mon Ang.  That's a bad take man.

[G-Snarls]

Do we want Nick Castellanos for cheap?

Phillies just released him 

Is he any better than our internal options for COF?