Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[Terminator]

Springer and Barger are getting close to returning. Will be interesting to see what they do with the roster when they are back.

• Sosa is out of options
• Straw is out of options
• Eloy is out of options
• Lukes has an option
• Schneider has an option

Seems like Eloy is an easy choice unless he starts hitting for power ASAP. The second move is pretty tough though.

 

 

[Orgfiller]

17 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Springer and Barger are getting close to returning. Will be interesting to see what they do with the roster when they are back.

• Sosa is out of options
• Straw is out of options
• Eloy is out of options
• Lukes has an option
• Schneider has an option

Seems like Eloy is an easy choice unless he starts hitting for power ASAP. The second move is pretty tough though.

 

 

How close is "close"? I don't think either have started minor league assignments just yet, and these things tend to resolve themselves.

As it stands, Eloy is for sure being DFA'd since he's been a slap hitter, and to be honest I could see the same for Sosa even though he's under team control and they traded something for him. He doesn't cost anything and hasn't been good.

Lukes is starting to show signs of life and the Jays love platooning him with Straw/Schneider.

[Terminator]

14 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

How close is "close"? I don't think either have started minor league assignments just yet, and these things tend to resolve themselves.

As it stands, Eloy is for sure being DFA'd since he's been a slap hitter, and to be honest I could see the same for Sosa even though he's under team control and they traded something for him. He doesn't cost anything and hasn't been good.

Lukes is starting to show signs of life and the Jays love platooning him with Straw/Schneider.

Both are now running so hopefully they are back in the next week or two?

Good point on Sosa. The PTBNL/cash considerations part of that trade may factor in his performance and how long he's on the team anyway. Dump him and we are out a 13th rounder that hasn't even debuted yet.

So it's probably Sosa and Eloy if no one else gets hurt. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some phantom injuries too, aka the Dodgers special.

[Laika]

Yeah it's 100% Sosa and Eloy gone

They didn't trade this "Jordan Rich" guy (if he even exists) for Lenyn Sosa under the assumption that they would actually control Sosa for a long time. It was just the price of a stop-gap. Very possible Sosa stinks it up for two weeks and is then gone. But he also makes $800k and has control + some pop and hitability, so even if Toronto DFAs him they can probably trade him for "Justin Rich" or whatever. Some other causasian NPC who won't get above the FCL. 

Schneider, Lukes, and Straw just do too many things right as "glue guys" to even think about optioning them 

[The_DH]

3 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

How close is "close"? I don't think either have started minor league assignments just yet, and these things tend to resolve themselves.

As it stands, Eloy is for sure being DFA'd since he's been a slap hitter, and to be honest I could see the same for Sosa even though he's under team control and they traded something for him. He doesn't cost anything and hasn't been good.

Lukes is starting to show signs of life and the Jays love platooning him with Straw/Schneider.

The minor league games may be 2-4 games only.   And for Eloy, he wasn't hitting for power in AAA either.

[Stangstag]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Yeah it's 100% Sosa and Eloy gone

They didn't trade this "Jordan Rich" guy (if he even exists) for Lenyn Sosa under the assumption that they would actually control Sosa for a long time. It was just the price of a stop-gap. Very possible Sosa stinks it up for two weeks and is then gone. But he also makes $800k and has control + some pop and hitability, so even if Toronto DFAs him they can probably trade him for "Justin Rich" or whatever. Some other causasian NPC who won't get above the FCL. 

Schneider, Lukes, and Straw just do too many things right as "glue guys" to even think about optioning them 

I feel like optioning any of those guys in favor of keeping Sosa would be the death of the clubhouse. Vibes would evaporate 

[hanton]

whoever this behemoth is we're going to destroy him

[Jonn]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Yeah it's 100% Sosa and Eloy gone

They didn't trade this "Jordan Rich" guy (if he even exists) for Lenyn Sosa under the assumption that they would actually control Sosa for a long time. It was just the price of a stop-gap. Very possible Sosa stinks it up for two weeks and is then gone. But he also makes $800k and has control + some pop and hitability, so even if Toronto DFAs him they can probably trade him for "Justin Rich" or whatever. Some other causasian NPC who won't get above the FCL. 

Schneider, Lukes, and Straw just do too many things right as "glue guys" to even think about optioning them 

Low key hope Jordan Rich becomes a star so I can quote this again one day.

[Jonn]

6 hours ago, Terminator said:

Springer and Barger are getting close to returning. Will be interesting to see what they do with the roster when they are back.

• Sosa is out of options
• Straw is out of options
• Eloy is out of options
• Lukes has an option
• Schneider has an option

Seems like Eloy is an easy choice unless he starts hitting for power ASAP. The second move is pretty tough though.

 

 

I feel like Eloy is gone for sure. It will come down to Sosa vs Schneider more than likely. I guess will see if Sosa was a stop gap or someone they actually like pretty soon.

[John_Havok]

8 hours ago, Terminator said:

Both are now running so hopefully they are back in the next week or two?

Good point on Sosa. The PTBNL/cash considerations part of that trade may factor in his performance and how long he's on the team anyway. Dump him and we are out a 13th rounder that hasn't even debuted yet.

So it's probably Sosa and Eloy if no one else gets hurt. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some phantom injuries too, aka the Dodgers special.

Just pull a John MacDonald and send Sosa himself back as the PTBNL. 

Is that still allowed?

[Spanky__99]

 

This page will be updated throughout the year with all the latest Blue Jays injury news and transactions.

LATEST INJURIES

RHP Trey Yesavage
Injury: Right shoulder impingement
IL date: March 25 (15-day IL, retroactive to March 22)
Expected return: Late April
Status: Completed rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo on April 21. Velocity reached 96 mph, though he struggled with command. Team will determine if he needs one more Minor League start to reach 80-pitch threshold. (updated: April 21) More >>

DH/OF George Springer
Injury: Left big toe fracture
IL date: April 12 (10-day IL)
Expected return: Late April
Status: Participated in straight-line running and on-field batting practice on April 21. Manager John Schneider characterized his status as day to day, noting that next steps will be determined after team's April 23 off-day. (updated: April 21) More >>

RF/3B Addison Barger
Injury: Left ankle sprain
IL date: April 7 (10-day IL)
Expected return: Late April
Status: Resumed running on April 21; appeared to move normally. Also has been hitting, throwing and fielding ground balls. Will continue to build up his running intensity. (updated: April 21) More >>

RHP José Berríos
Injury: Right elbow stress fracture
IL date: March 25 (15-day IL, retroactive to March 22)
Expected return: Late April or early May
Status: Scheduled to throw around 60 pitches in a rehab assignment for Single-A Dunedin on April 22. (updated: April 20) More >>

RHP Yimi García
Injury: Rehab from 2025 right elbow surgery
IL date: March 25 (15-day IL, retroactive to March 22)
Expected return: Potentially early-mid May
Status: Scheduled to throw live to hitters for the first time April 22. (updated: April 20)

RHP Shane Bieber
Injury: Right elbow inflammation
IL date: March 25 (60-day IL, retroactive to March 22)
Expected return: Potentially mid-late May
Status: Scheduled to throw another bullpen session in Dunedin on April 21. (updated: April 20) More >>

[Olerud363.354]

I posted this on the game thread but it's kind of cool so I'll post it here again.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Reggie Jackson have almost the same home run totals and same season to season variation between age 22 and 26 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml

Both had a high 40s (Vlad 48 Reggie 47), both had a low 20s (both 23).  Both had a 25 (well Vlad 26).  Both had a 30 (well Reggie 29), both had exactly 32.

Despite this Reggie isn't on Vlad's comparable list through age 26.   Justin Upton who seems less comparable to me is. 

I guess they weight batting average, k-rate and other things just as much as homers.

Most comparable are Eddie Murray and Freddie Freeman.  Still on track with Ramirez and Cabrera through age 26.  Their numbers looked bigger because of very different environment but normalized to environment still with them. 

HOWEVER.  Cabrera and Ramirez dominated age 27-32.  Triple crowns.  Near triple crowns.  Batting titles.  .350 with great power and a great eye.   Vlad has to take it to the next level to keep up now. 

[glory]

The bench when everyone is healthy is going to be Straw/DS/Lukes. Sosa isn’t good enough to care about the years of control, and Eloy is a lottery ticket with no value outside of his bat (which may or may not even be good). If they fixed Eloy then it becomes a tougher decision but I don’t think there will be a large enough sample size to determine that by the time they have to decide on roster moves.

[Olerud363.354]

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 147, 146, 146, 144. 125

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. top RBAT+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 -   168,  163, 133, 133, 120

When you order it like that you can see they are comparable through age 26.  Vlad has more variation.  Manny raw numbers seems better because average team hit .260 .340 .450 or something back then. 

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 27-31 - 186, 184, 174, 161, 158

Manny took it to the next level age 27-31

 

[Laika]

30 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 147, 146, 146, 144. 125

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. top RBAT+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 -   168,  163, 133, 133, 120

When you order it like that you can see they are comparable through age 26.  Vlad has more variation.  Manny raw numbers seems better because average team hit .260 .340 .450 or something back then. 

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 27-31 - 186, 184, 174, 161, 158

Manny took it to the next level age 27-31

 

Manny's K%+ is probably much higher than Vlad 

League K/9 was like 6.5 during Manny's first ten years. It's like 8.5 now. Despite that, Vlad's K rate is lower. 

I feel like we can just call him Vladdy Murray and move on EXCEPT Guerrero has that freaking 48 homer season hanging around.

Reasonably I guess we cannot except Eddie Murray's longevity but we can probably expect at least a couple more 40(ish) homer seasons in his prime. 

[Terminator]

21 minutes ago, Laika said:

Manny's K%+ is probably much higher than Vlad 

League K/9 was like 6.5 during Manny's first ten years. It's like 8.5 now. Despite that, Vlad's K rate is lower. 

I feel like we can just call him Vladdy Murray and move on EXCEPT Guerrero has that freaking 48 homer season hanging around.

Reasonably I guess we cannot except Eddie Murray's longevity but we can probably expect at least a couple more 40(ish) homer seasons in his prime. 

I like the Murray comp. And like Murray, Vlad has a shot at 500 homers and 300 hits.

Needs to average about 24 homers and 136 hits a year over the course of his contract in order to get there. 

[Olerud363.354]

32 minutes ago, Laika said:

Reasonably I guess we cannot except Eddie Murray's longevity but we can probably expect at least a couple more 40(ish) homer seasons in his prime. 

That would make him Vladdy Jackson, with lower k-rate and lower walk rate,  Reggie did not win a homerun title young, but won a few after with 41, 39, 36 and 33.  Those totals probably won't win homerun titles in the strange land of 2020s baseball.  

2028 homerun leaders (predicted)

1.  Murakami - White Sox 58 (221 ks)

2. Nick Kurtz - Las Vegas Athletics 56 (229 ks)

3. Aaaron (old) Judge - New York Yankees 49 (198 ks)

....

8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Toronto Blue Jays 38 (83 ks)

[Olerud363.354]

2027 homerun leaders (predicted)

NA (non applicable season canceled because of Strike)

2026 Dodgers 112-50 3rd World Series victory in a row

2026 Mets 70-92 sadness - Mets ownership grumpy and bitter, cast tie breaking strike vote. 

[Olerud363.354]

2 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

2026 Mets 70-92 sadness - Mets ownership grumpy and bitter, cast tie breaking strike vote.

A bit of a tangent but do the Mets save 45 million on Bo Bichette if a strike?  I know some players got big bonuses and stuff to bypass strike things (like Vlad might have 400 million bonus or something)... but is Bo protected from strike?  

Not good news for 2027 if Mets have multiple reasons to vote for the strike (bitterness, bad attitude, plus need to get out of Bo Bichette payments). 

[Laika]

15 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I like the Murray comp. And like Murray, Vlad has a shot at 500 homers and 300 hits.

Needs to average about 24 homers and 136 hits a year over the course of his contract in order to get there. 

If the Jays get a Mr. 3000 with 500+ Homers it will be invaluable for the franchise 

Their current in-uniform leaders have 1583 hits (Fernandez) and 336 homers (Delgado)

Vlad is going to end up the franchise leader, for eternity, for most counting stats other than stolen bases 

[Terminator]

I've been trying to figure out this Sosa acquisition ever since we got him and I think I might have found something.

He's played in 6 games as a Blue Jays so far and 2 of them featured him as a pinch hitter. He's 2-2 pinch hitting as a Jay and both hits were huge in securing us the win.

I think they like him, especially as a pinch hitter, because he can hit high velo. Here's his career xBA depending on the pitch velo.

• 96 mph and below = .264 xBA
• 97 and above = .281 xBA
• 98 and above = .321 xBA
• 99 and above = .366 xBA
• 100 and above = .271 xBA
• 101 and above = .333 xBA

The league average xBA on pitches thrown 99 mph or greater is .185. For pitches thrown 101 mph it's .104. 

This man is a psychopath. He has no business hitting high velo this well.

Is Ross cooking here?

 

 

[max silver]

22 hours ago, BTS said:

I'm still on the Hoffman train. His K-BB is like 33% and the stuff is still above average. Just have to assume the results fall into place eventually. 

xFIP is 1.22

xERA 2.57

ERA inflated with a 0.571 BABIP and 33.3% HR/FB. Easiest regression candidate in baseball right now, 

I like Hoffman's stuff but his command is just abysmal at times. He has a tendency to fall behind in counts and groove pitches in the middle of the zone which is a recipe for disaster at times. 

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I've been trying to figure out this Sosa acquisition ever since we got him and I think I might have found something.

He's played in 6 games as a Blue Jays so far and 2 of them featured him as a pinch hitter. He's 2-2 pinch hitting as a Jay and both hits were huge in securing us the win.

I think they like him, especially as a pinch hitter, because he can hit high velo. Here's his career xBA depending on the pitch velo.

• 96 mph and below = .264 xBA
• 97 and above = .281 xBA
• 98 and above = .321 xBA
• 99 and above = .366 xBA
• 100 and above = .271 xBA
• 101 and above = .333 xBA

The league average xBA on pitches thrown 99 mph or greater is .185. For pitches thrown 101 mph it's .104. 

This man is a psychopath. He has no business hitting high velo this well.

Is Ross cooking here?

 

 

Makes sense given his skill set that he might be able to just grip it and rip it against almost anything 

Still not sure how he sticks if everyone gets healthy