Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Davy Andrews]

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. spoke to reporters on Tuesday morning, his deadline for negotiations, and confirmed that no deal had been reached.

Well, you can finally stop holding your breath. As promised, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. met with reporters at 8:00 AM on the morning of Tuesday, February 18, his spring training deadline for extension talks with the Blue Jays. Revealing that calls between the two parties stretched to 10:30 on Monday night, Guerrero said, “They had their numbers; I had my numbers.” And just like that, any hope of Guerrero signing an extension with the Blue Jays has been extinguished. Guerrero wants to focus on baseball during spring training and the regular season, so he will go into his contract year with everything to prove. The news ratchets up the uncertainty even further for a Blue Jays team that spent heavily during the offseason, but still ended up with a team that needs a lot to break right in order to have a chance at the playoffs.

As Guerrero is entering his age-26 season as one of the most feared sluggers in the game, his numbers are surely quite large. In the coming days and weeks, it’s possible that we’ll learn more about the specifics of the numbers that the Blue Jays proposed as the deadline. Back in December, Guerrero told reporters that the Blue Jays had made him an offer in the area of $340 million, and that it was “not even close to what we are looking for.” He also said that after his excellent 2021 season, the team offered him a seven-year, $150-million extension. Asked on Tuesday morning whether the Blue Jays were close to his number, Guerrero simply said, “No.” He also said, “I know my value.”

After Juan Soto’s record-shattering 15-year, $765-million deal with the Mets, it’s hard to fault Guerrero for having a better sense of his value. While Soto occupies an echelon of his own – his 158 wRC+ is well above Guerrero’s still-excellent 137 – his age and prowess as a slugger still make him the best comparison for Guerrero’s contract situation. Soto entered free agency before his age-26 season, while Guerrero will do so before his age-27 season. Both players are extremely one-sided, providing excellent world-class offense and some of the game’s worst defense and baserunning. It’s a recipe for a long contract, and if the Blue Jays hope to retain Guerrero, they’ll now have to compete with the rest of the league.

For those of you who’d like to panic, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman has already posted a top three list of Guerrero’s potential landing spots, “1. Red Sox 2. Mets (assuming Pete opts out) 3. Yankees.” However, Guerrero made it clear, as he has throughout the process, that he hasn’t closed any windows and would like to be a Blue Jay for life, saying "I will do anything, everything I can to stay here because I want to be here." He also made it clear that money isn't his only concern. "Winning team," he told reporters. "That’s what I’ll be looking for in free agency. As you guys know, my dad played a lot of years. He never won a World Series. My personal goal is to win a World Series and give the ring to my dad."

We’ll update this story later this morning, when Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro will address reporters about the situation.

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[John_Havok]

Lots of contradiction in Vlad's statements. 

They weren't close on numbers....I know my value.... they had their numbers, I had mine...

Money isn't the only priority ... winning is the goal....I will do everything I can to stay here...

So yeah, Vlad asking for far too much money seemingly confirmed. I doubt the number is 450/10 either as that's a number that's not so egregious it couldn't be rationalized. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

We'll probably find out more in the coming weeks, as one of these sides is going to be motivated to leak numbers to win public perception.

Either way, I consider this a pretty big fail on Atkins' part. You find a way to keep your stars, you just get it done.

[John_Havok]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

We'll probably find out more in the coming weeks, as one of these sides is going to be motivated to leak numbers to win public perception.

Either way, I consider this a pretty big fail on Atkins' part. You find a way to keep your stars, you just get it done.

I generally agree, but if the one side isn't willing to negotiate in good faith and asks for a price that is so far out there it's ridiculous and doesnt budge.. then what can ya do?

[Brownie19]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

We'll probably find out more in the coming weeks, as one of these sides is going to be motivated to leak numbers to win public perception.

Either way, I consider this a pretty big fail on Atkins' part. You find a way to keep your stars, you just get it done.

There's a point where that simply isn't the right call anymore.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I generally agree, but if the one side isn't willing to negotiate in good faith and asks for a price that is so far out there it's ridiculous and doesnt budge.. then what can ya do?

1 minute ago, Brownie19 said:

There's a point where that simply isn't the right call anymore.  

Like I said, I think we'll get numbers sooner or later. And when the dust settles, I suspect Vlad's numbers today are lower than he gets in free agency. Maybe not by much, but I doubt he's asking for $600m. He and his agent know he's a first baseman and not very good at the position. What's the point of asking for so much that you'll never get it?

[BB17]

The real question will be if in FA Vladdy signs somewhere else if the Blue jays offer the most $. Then we really find out if he “loves Toronto”

I don’t fault the FO for not signing him, however it likely will be a distraction the entire year for all the other players which will be annoying. 

[Brownie19]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Like I said, I think we'll get numbers sooner or later. And when the dust settles, I suspect Vlad's numbers today are lower than he gets in free agency. Maybe not by much, but I doubt he's asking for $600m. He and his agent know he's a first baseman and not very good at the position. What's the point of asking for so much that you'll never get it?

Because this isn't the deadline to get "that number".  Vlad can ask for the moon all he wants in hopes that someone is stupid enough to give it to him.  The only time he has to "settle" for less than the moon would be about this time next year, when he may need to compromise if nobody will pay up.

The criticism is probably that the FO didn't pull the plug on extending Vlad sooner and didn't pull the trigger to trade him at the start of the offseason.  That will certainly be the narrative if we don't make the playoffs this year.

I suspect the FO thought there would be more mutual interest in compromising and finding a number they could both accept (which doesn't appear to be true) and/or they simple were committed to trying to win this year, which may have been a influenced by Rogers (win to keep your job boys).

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

We'll probably find out more in the coming weeks, as one of these sides is going to be motivated to leak numbers to win public perception.

Either way, I consider this a pretty big fail on Atkins' part. You find a way to keep your stars, you just get it done.

Totally agree with you.  This is just sad.

I bet the Jays didn't even offer 400 million.  I hope the numbers are leaked so we'll know for sure.

Reading Atkins chatgpt-like quotes the other day about it made me want to poke pencils into my eyes.

[Masterbather]

This front office I tell ya!

Complete disaster. Complete and total f***ing disaster. That we left it to these idiots to deal with our most important asset is beyond comprehension.

 

 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

How can anyone blame Vlad here?

He's said for years he's wanted to play his entire career here.  This front office has never seriously tried to sign him.  Their only attempt was an insulting offer.

These guys offered Soto and Ohtani 700+ million.  There's no way Vlad asked for that kind of money, but obviously he deserves 400+ if they offered Soto 700+.

This is all on the F/O.  Just add it to the top of a long list of screw ups.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

2 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

This front office I tell ya!

Complete disaster. Complete and total f***ing disaster. That we left it to these idiots to deal with our most important asset is beyond comprehension.

 

 

Exactly.  So frustrating.

 

[Omar]

Well the true deadline isn't until his contract expires and before he signs elsewhere. Nothing wrong with him trying to get all he can and perhaps all this talk about wanting to stay a Blue Jay for life is just posturing.   If his asking price is a contract that begins with the number 5 (and  I suspect it does) then we all know what the prudent course of action should be:  Trade him while you can.

Yeah, the usual suspects will blame this on Jays management not being able to close a deal with their franchise player but at some point common sense has to prevail, right?

I've always been in the sign Vladdy camp but looking at the situation from a purely analytical perspective, in a few short years he will be on the wrong side of 30, do you really want to empty your pocket book for what could be Prince Fielder 2.0 at that point?  

[glory]

This is why keeping a lame duck front office was a bad idea. They have zero reason to care about anything other than 2025, so trading Vlad and hurting the 2025 team (even if it helps the 2026-beyond teams) wouldn’t be in their best interest. The only other option then would be an extension but they are extremely committed to their own internal valuations/plan, and Vlad has no reason to compromise when every big market team will be after him this winter, so there was very little chance this was ever going to lead to an extension.

It’s strange that if both Vlad and Bo are still on the team by the end of 2025, then I actually think Bo is more likely to come back. I don’t see a clear market for him as a shortstop. 

 

[John_Havok]

41 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Because this isn't the deadline to get "that number".  Vlad can ask for the moon all he wants in hopes that someone is stupid enough to give it to him.  The only time he has to "settle" for less than the moon would be about this time next year, when he may need to compromise if nobody will pay up.

The criticism is probably that the FO didn't pull the plug on extending Vlad sooner and didn't pull the trigger to trade him at the start of the offseason.  That will certainly be the narrative if we don't make the playoffs this year.

I suspect the FO thought there would be more mutual interest in compromising and finding a number they could both accept (which doesn't appear to be true) and/or they simple were committed to trying to win this year, which may have been a influenced by Rogers (win to keep your job boys).

You pretty nailed the Shapiro quote. 

[John_Havok]

35 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How can anyone blame Vlad here?

He's said for years he's wanted to play his entire career here.  This front office has never seriously tried to sign him.  Their only attempt was an insulting offer.

These guys offered Soto and Ohtani 700+ million.  There's no way Vlad asked for that kind of money, but obviously he deserves 400+ if they offered Soto 700+.

This is all on the F/O.  Just add it to the top of a long list of screw ups.

How can anyone blindingly say Vlad has no responsibility in the situation?

Negotiations are a two way street. 

[BTS]

The biggest failure here isn’t not signing him - it’s going into the season with him unsigned. If Houston can trade Tucker and SD can trade Soto they could have traded Vlad, but they won’t because Atkins is too passive for the job. 

[AMS528]

Just now, BTS said:

The biggest failure here isn’t not signing him - it’s going into the season with him unsigned. If Houston can trade Tucker and SD can trade Soto, but they won’t because Atkins is too passive for the job. 

Like if they were as far apart as this is indicating, how do you not realize that and then drag out this extension talk all the way to spring training. 

Passive like you said, just a failure on the front office to figure it out in either direction. 

People brushed over it at the time, but this happened with Donaldson, and that was a failure on their part. 

Now we've got both Bo and Vladdy sitting around and as we know freeing up their money is useless because players have to want to come here and that's no guarantee. 

They've been chasing the market the entire way with this Vladdy thing. It was noted in an article that Tatis changed the market and the Jays couldn't sign Vladdy to their number, given what he made in arb, it probably would have been fine in hindsight, would have just bought his arb years and his free agent years would have been significantly cheaper than discussions that took place now. Then Soto set the market and they were screwed again. It's their jobs to be able to predict and see how things will play out and they have utterly failed. 

Now if Vladdy sucks, the team probably will as well, and he will return less in a trade. If they don't trade him, even if his value is cheapened it means more teams can get in on him and there's no guarantee he sticks around at that lower price. He does great and now you're probably paying even more for him if you can manage it. 

There's not really any good outcomes that take place from here on out unless you're trading him in the next three weeks, and even then teams know you're on a timeline. 

[Krylian]

Who could've predicted this? Shatkins too afraid to make the tough call and trade him to maximize his value.  Now he's just a rental.

[Barrelsandbombs]

 

[GNick92]

Get a huge year out of Vlad anyway

[leaffie]

So trade him now.  Dont  wait til deadline.  If Vladdy really wanted to be here, he would have signed .

I have never liked Shatkins for one minute, but I dont blame them for this.

Halladay took less money to help make the team better, but Vladdy knows his worth.

Vladdy wants to win a world series, but if the Jays gave him whatever he was asking for, how much would be left to sign better players.

TRADE HIM to whoever comes with the best offer.

[JaysAllMighty]

Like I said before, Vladdy is milking the cow,  he's not Soto or Othani,  FO should call his bluff and see what they can get in a trade for him.

[Jays24]

32 minutes ago, BTS said:

The biggest failure here isn’t not signing him - it’s going into the season with him unsigned. If Houston can trade Tucker and SD can trade Soto they could have traded Vlad, but they won’t because Atkins is too passive for the job. 

Exactly... this is 100% the issue. 

I said from the start, that you need to figure out the Vlad situation at the beginning of free agency before teams fill up their 1B spots and have more money to throw around.  This would also allow the Jays to pivot and spend accordingly in free agency.  

Now any bidding war would include far less teams and know the Jays are in a position of complete desperation.  This front office is full of f***ing idiots and only the same people here will defend them while 95% of the fan base want these idiots gone. 

[Laika]

It's still not a cemented failure. Look at all of the possible scenarios:

1. They fall out of it and trade him at the deadline, for a good return 
2. They fall out of it and trade him at the deadline, for a poor return
3. They fall out of it and don't trade him and he doesn't sign back
4. They fall out of it and don't trade him and he signs back
5. They compete, don't trade him, miss the playoffs, and he doesn't sign back 
6. They compete, don't trade him, miss the playoffs, but he signs back here 
7. They compete, don't trade him, make the playoffs, flame out again, and he doesn't sign back 
8. They compete, don't trade him, make the playoffs, flame out again, but he signs back here 
9. They compete, don't trade him, make the playoffs, win it all, and he leaves
10. They compete, don't trade him, make the playoffs, win it all, and he returns

Only the 4/10 bolded scenarios are obvious flops. We still have to wait and see it all unfold. 

For all we know his demands are completely unrealistic and he will hit free agency after a decent but not phenomenal 4 WAR year and be humbled. 

There is also a further scenario where his contract ends up being a disaster, which would colour all of the "he leaves" outcomes differently.

[Eat My Shatkins]

 

Haha

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Vladdywagon said:

These guys offered Soto and Ohtani 700+ million.  There's no way Vlad asked for that kind of money, but obviously he deserves 400+ if they offered Soto 700+.

This is what chaps my ass about the situation. The Jays are obviously willing to offer sky-high dollar amounts to free agents. No, Vlad is not as valuable on the field as Ohtani or Soto... but he's more valuable from a fan standpoint than Soto. And it's okay to cater to the fanbase, as they're the ones who pay the contracts.

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Lots of contradiction in Vlad's statements. 

They weren't close on numbers....I know my value.... they had their numbers, I had mine...

Money isn't the only priority ... winning is the goal....I will do everything I can to stay here...

So yeah, Vlad asking for far too much money seemingly confirmed. I doubt the number is 450/10 either as that's a number that's not so egregious it couldn't be rationalized. 

 

Yeah he doesn’t even seem like he’s negotiating anything. He’s sticking to his number and thats it.

fine, that’s what the open market is for. See if there’s a team willing to give you your ridiculous demands.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

I've always been in the sign Vladdy camp but looking at the situation from a purely analytical perspective, in a few short years he will be on the wrong side of 30, do you really want to empty your pocket book for what could be Prince Fielder 2.0 at that point?  

Most free agent contracts are bad deals for the team. If we fret too much over worst-case scenarios, there's no point in ever signing a free agent or retaining a hometown star past their control years.

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Like I said, I think we'll get numbers sooner or later. And when the dust settles, I suspect Vlad's numbers today are lower than he gets in free agency. Maybe not by much, but I doubt he's asking for $600m. He and his agent know he's a first baseman and not very good at the position. What's the point of asking for so much that you'll never get it?

It entirely depends on whether he has a good season or a bad season this year. And that’s part of the reason the front office doesn’t agree on his value, because he’s been so inconsistent