Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Masterbather]

He should have been traded at last year's deadline, that was the time to do it, it was already clear that he was going to price himself out of what our front office valued him at, and I'm not even disagreeing with the front office on their valuation, but they shouldn't have let it come to this.

At the very least he should have been traded this off season. 

This s*** was fumbled completely, along with most of the rest of the off-season for what is now a Frankenstein of a roster.

[Stangstag]

23 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Could also provide us with an opportunity for a long playoff run, which would be awesome.  Then once Vlad realizes MLB doesn't pay for bat only players, he can re-sign here in the offseason after being humbled that he isn't worth half of what Soto is.

 

I’ve been thinking this is how it will go since like last year. He just needs to hit free agency to see what he’s actually worth to the league

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Jonn said:

Thought I was on Facebook for a second . Had to double check.

Hello It’s official. Signed at 3:23PM. It was even on TV. Mine really turned blue. Don't forget that tomorrow starts the new Facebook rule (aka... new name, META) where they can use your photos. Don't forget the deadline is today!!!

I do not authorize META, Facebook or any entity associated with Facebook to use my photos, information, messages or posts, past or future.

With this statement, I notify Facebook that

it is strictly prohibited to disclose, copy, distribute or take any other action against me based on this profile and/or its contents. Violation of privacy may be punishable by law.

Here's how to do If you are thinking of getting off FB because of the volume of sales ads and trash stuff. So hold your finger anywhere in this post and click ′copy’. Go to your page where it says ‘What's on your mind?’ Tap your finger anywhere in the blank field. Click paste. This upgrades the system.

Hello new and old friends!

IT ACTUALLY WORKED!!!!

Hold your finger anywhere in this message and “copy” will appear. Click “copy”. Then go to your page, create a new post and place your finger anywhere in the empty field. “Paste” will appear and click Paste.

This will bypass the system….

He who does nothing consents

According to the show 60 Minutes:

Just in case you missed it: a lawyer advised us to post this. The violation of privacy can be punished by law NOTE: Facebook Meta is now a public entity. Every member must post a note like this. If you do not publish a statement at least once, it will be technically understood that you are allowing the use of your photos, as well as the information contained in your profile status updates.

I HEREBY DECLARE THAT I DO NOT GIVE MY PERMISSION TO USE ANY OF MY PERSONAL DATA

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry. I could not resist. I have enough boomers in my life where I just had to hop over to one of my aunt's pages to find a copy-able version of that...

[Blue balls]

I’m happy they didn’t give him the moon. If he is sticking to his number, if Bo is not interested in a contract extension and if we are in a WC spot come trade deadline, I believe we should be hybrid sellers. 
 

Jays would possess the likely 2 most wanted players. Trade those two to contenders for young players/prospects. Trade lesser prospects to get good FA’s to play 1B and 2B while Gimenez moves to SS. Adress any other weakness. Re-tool next summer. I doubt they would get that much more now than at the deadline especially for Bichette.

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, Blue balls said:

I’m happy they didn’t give him the moon. If he is sticking to his number, if Bo is not interested in a contract extension and if we are in a WC spot come trade deadline, I believe we should be hybrid sellers. 
 

Jays would possess the likely 2 most wanted players. Trade those two to contenders for young players/prospects. Trade lesser prospects to get good FA’s to play 1B and 2B while Gimenez moves to SS. Adress any other weakness. Re-tool next summer. I doubt they would get that much more now than at the deadline especially for Bichette.

I think this is a viable option as well.  Like how Detroit dealt Flaherty at the deadline last year (only at a much larger scale).

[Omar]

The argument that the Jays were negligent and should have known that they couldn't sign Vlad, hence they should have traded him seems like pure hindsight to me.  Vladdy made overtures that he wanted to remain a Jay for life.  Unfortunately the Soto deal moved the goalposts an incredible amount. Its not the Jays fault that some overzealous prick in New York went crazy and gave Soto the moon. Without the Soto deal being consummated I believe Vladdy would have signed by now.  Unfortunately he has $ signs in his eyes right now. I don't think it's fair to blame the Jays if they had every intention to sign Vladdy but are disciplined enough not to throw money at an asset that could decline precipitously. 

[wilko]

13 minutes ago, Omar said:

The argument that the Jays were negligent and should have known that they couldn't sign Vlad, hence they should have traded him seems like pure hindsight to me.  Vladdy made overtures that he wanted to remain a Jay for life.  Unfortunately the Soto deal moved the goalposts an incredible amount. Its not the Jays fault that some overzealous prick in New York went crazy and gave Soto the moon. Without the Soto deal being consummated I believe Vladdy would have signed by now.  Unfortunately has $ signs in his eyes right now. I don't think it's fair to blame the Jays if they had every intention to sign Vladdy but are disciplined enough not to throw money at an asset that could decline precipitously. 

100% Agree. I can see the Jays offering 375/400 tops. Vladdy probably has closer to 500+ in mind. If that truly is the case, let the year play out and see what happens. 

[Bananamon]

3 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

That would be a huge mistake.

As far as signing Vlad for what he wanted, likely $40M+ AAV and $500M+ total, the Jays can get more WAR through multiple next tier FA.  Vlad is a great bat no doubt, but he sucks at everything else, including the clubhouse (more Gatorade dumps, anyone?).

Trade him now for the best return you can get.

His defense at 1b sucks? He has become an elite defender at his position and his over the shoulder catches, which most other first basemen flail at, he makes look easy. Not to mention the fact that he makes throws with pin point accuracy to second when he's starting dp's

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Bananamon said:

His defense at 1b sucks? He has become an elite defender at his position and his over the shoulder catches, which most other first basemen flail at, he makes look easy. Not to mention the fact that he makes throws with pin point accuracy to second when he's starting dp's

Welcome to Jays Centre!

Don't know about "elite"... DRS is pretty meh on Vlad while OAA flat-out hates him at first base.

[Bananamon]

I think they let it play out and trade both Vlad and Bo for a couple of stud young starters and a decent bat or two and piece the rest together through free agency. Other that or rebuild your entire farm system. A lot of teams such as the dodgers, mets,, bosox and many others that would pony up big time for these two guys. One more year after this and springer minus the dinger is off the book too, unless I am incorrect

[Bananamon]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Jays Centre!

Don't know about "elite"... DRS is pretty meh on Vlad while OAA flat-out hates him at first base.

Maybe so but his GG and my eyes tell me he is easily amongst the best at his position.

Thanks for the welcome!

[jaysblue]

7 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Because this isn't the deadline to get "that number".  Vlad can ask for the moon all he wants in hopes that someone is stupid enough to give it to him.  The only time he has to "settle" for less than the moon would be about this time next year, when he may need to compromise if nobody will pay up.

The criticism is probably that the FO didn't pull the plug on extending Vlad sooner and didn't pull the trigger to trade him at the start of the offseason.  That will certainly be the narrative if we don't make the playoffs this year.

I suspect the FO thought there would be more mutual interest in compromising and finding a number they could both accept (which doesn't appear to be true) and/or they simple were committed to trying to win this year, which may have been a influenced by Rogers (win to keep your job boys).

Your second point: I think the Vlad situation definitely should have been resolved early in the offseason instead of being dragged out all the way to Spring Training.

First off, a Vlad extension earlier in the offseason would have set a direction for this team and might have helped lure other top FA's who the Jays were in on. 

Secondly, if an extension couldn't be reached with Vladdy, then Atkins could have explored some trade options and the Jays might have been able to get a solid package in return, similar to what the Padres got for Soto last offseason. Instead, now Atkins/Shapiro are pretty much stuck in limbo with Vlad. It's likely too late now to trade him, unless it's at the trade deadline and with Vladdy being a two-month rental, you won't be getting as much. 

I still think the Jays could win with or without Vladdy, but it would have been nice to have that clarity earlier in the offseason and plan accordingly. Now, we might see Vlad walk at the end of the season and receive nothing of value in return. 

[Terminator]

It doesn’t sound like Vlad is giving much of a hometown discount at all. And if that’s the case might as well do it this way. It’s riskier that he leaves, and he probably will tbh, but there’s no point in giving an extension when the team isn’t getting any sort of discount over what he’d get in FA. Theres a chance his market doesn’t develop. 

Yanks and Red Sox aren’t really the mega spenders they used to be. Dodgers and Mets could be tapped out on a player like Vlad but I do worry about the Mets. Giants would be a horrible fit for a right handed power hitter. Phillies don’t need him with Harper moving to 1B. Could a team like the Rangers make a play?

Tucker being available would also likely eliminate the team that signs him so that will play a factor too.

 

 

[jaysblue]

5 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Lots of people arguing with emotions here instead of logic.

I suspect we will look back on this in a few months time (or a few years) and be very happy we didn’t sign Vlad for some ridiculous amount.

I'm okay if they don't sign Vlad to an extension, but it would have been nice not to drag it all the way to Spring Training. Instead they should have dealt with the Vlad situation earlier in the offseason. Seems like this FO was way too passive and likely missed the boat in trading Vlad for a solid package that could have helped this team in the longer term. 

[Brownie19]

17 minutes ago, Bananamon said:

Maybe so but his GG and my eyes tell me he is easily amongst the best at his position.

Thanks for the welcome!

Welcome to the board.  You should get your eyes checked.

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Nice to see some sense in this thread. The money Vlad is asking for is insane, and people want to chastise the FO for not giving it to him? 

Life will go on if the overweight 1B who can't play D or base run walks in FA. Sure, when he's on he can hit, but when he's off he brings nothing else to the table.

Not chastising the FO for not giving Vlad insane money. Instead, criticizing the timing of everything and that the Vlad situation should have been dealt with earlier. If Vlad's demands were insane at the beginning of November and the Jays couldn't negotiate a deal with him, then look to trade him, 

[Brownie19]

27 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Your second point: I think the Vlad situation definitely should have been resolved early in the offseason instead of being dragged out all the way to Spring Training.

First off, a Vlad extension earlier in the offseason would have set a direction for this team and might have helped lure other top FA's who the Jays were in on. 

Secondly, if an extension couldn't be reached with Vladdy, then Atkins could have explored some trade options and the Jays might have been able to get a solid package in return, similar to what the Padres got for Soto last offseason. Instead, now Atkins/Shapiro are pretty much stuck in limbo with Vlad. It's likely too late now to trade him, unless it's at the trade deadline and with Vladdy being a two-month rental, you won't be getting as much. 

I still think the Jays could win with or without Vladdy, but it would have been nice to have that clarity earlier in the offseason and plan accordingly. Now, we might see Vlad walk at the end of the season and receive nothing of value in return. 

It would have been GREAT if the Jays and Vlad could have sat down in October 2024 and nailed down whether they could come to an agreement or not on an extension.  But that comes with issues over leverage and a willingness to decide at that point.  True negotiation typically doesn't happen until there's a legit deadline looming.  I think it's obvious to say Vlad wasn't going to have any serious talks until Soto signed.  Then once he signed (December 11, 2024), the goal posts moved and both parties needed to re-group.  Even if they agreed to reconvene in early January, the issue is there's still no reason for Vlad to truly negotiate.  He can just stick to his guns and ask for the moon.

The only way to pull the plug on extending Vlad was to make that decision on their own - without any true negotiations with him.  They'd never know what the true number for Vlad was - all they'd have to go off is his "ask for the moon" offer.  The other option was to give him the moon right after the Soto signing.

They've chosen to negotiate with him against his self imposed deadline - which should be taken as an act of good faith and now have chosen to head into the season without a deal.  This could certainly all blow up in their faces - but we shouldn't pretend it was as easy as negotiation with him early on and then making that decision with all that good information in hand.  They'd have been making those decisions blindly - without true information.

[Bananamon]

I don't get the hate on his defense at 1b. His arm is easily in the 90th percentile in all the MLB when it comes to accuracy. I've literally watched him flag down foul balls that I've watched numerous others reach out and flail at, almost as if they're closing their eyes and hoping to catch a fish. Vlad does it consistently with ease. I'll readily admit that at third, he looked like a fish outta water, kinda like he does when he runs the bases. Could be one of the worst I've seen in that department. Especially annoying when he tumbles into second safe once in a while with that stupid look on his face, almost like he's actually admiring himself when the joke is actually on him

[Bananamon]

18 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Welcome to the board.  You should get your eyes checked.

Surrrrrrrrrrrrrrre i should

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, Bananamon said:

Surrrrrrrrrrrrrrre i should

I'm just joking around with you (couldn't resist).  Welcome aboard.  This is a sabr heavy board and although most of us use a combination of stats and our eyes/experience as baseball fans to form opinions, there is one thing that nearly everyone on this board agrees with - and it's that Vlad's defense and base running are dog sh*t.

[JaysfaninFL]

I'm somewhere in the middle on Vlad's 1B defense.  I know the metrics don't love him, but I think he easily holds his own there.  From pop-ups in foul ground, turning DPs and scooping poor throws.  He may not be elite and will likely never win another GG, but I think he would be fine there defensively for another 5 years for a playoff-caliber team before needing to move to DH.

[itaos]

If the worst case scenario plays out will Atkins really be in charge of the rebuild mid season? Is Click the defacto next in line?

[max silver]

36 minutes ago, Bananamon said:

I don't get the hate on his defense at 1b. His arm is easily in the 90th percentile in all the MLB when it comes to accuracy. I've literally watched him flag down foul balls that I've watched numerous others reach out and flail at, almost as if they're closing their eyes and hoping to catch a fish. Vlad does it consistently with ease. I'll readily admit that at third, he looked like a fish outta water, kinda like he does when he runs the bases. Could be one of the worst I've seen in that department. Especially annoying when he tumbles into second safe once in a while with that stupid look on his face, almost like he's actually admiring himself when the joke is actually on him

Vlad has a tremendous arm but that doesn't really make up for the rest of his defensive deficiencies. A plus plus arm on a first baseman is mitigated to a large degree by the lower amount of throws that a first baseman needs to make.

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, Bananamon said:

Maybe so but his GG and my eyes tell me he is easily amongst the best at his position.

Thanks for the welcome!

FYI, GG are meaningless and your eyes cannot possibly assess the quality of a defensive play in relation to all other 1B

[Nexii]

Vlad gets rated down on range which seems to be the most weighted metric for infield. Guess it's more of a jump thing because he isn't slow in terms of run speed. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

It seems they don't have a metric yet for 1B catching ability? I feel like he's probably about average at that, by the eye test. He probably makes more than average catches while also allowing more passed balls for extra bases. That is to say he doesn't step off on lost cause throws very often

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, itaos said:

If the worst case scenario plays out will Atkins really be in charge of the rebuild mid season? Is Click the defacto next in line?

If the team doesn't make the post season this year Atkins is fired the next day 

Or even sooner if they're out of it at the All Star break 

[G-Snarls]

9 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Vlad gets rated down on range which seems to be the most weighted metric for infield. Guess it's more of a jump thing because he isn't slow in terms of run speed. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

It seems they don't have a metric yet for 1B catching ability? I feel like he's probably about average at that, by the eye test. He probably makes more than average catches while also allowing more passed balls for extra bases. That is to say he doesn't step off on lost cause throws very often

His fragile glove webbing adds to the problem greatly LOL

[PhillyBlueJay]

""I'm confident that we exhausted the communication, the ideas, the thoughts and communicated every dollar and felt that Barry and Vlad got to the point that they were comfortable as well. It just wasn't close enough," Atkins said."

Just tell me point blank that both sides were off by 100 million. I suspect Vladdy wanted 600 million and and max offer from Atkins and Co. was 500 million. 

This lines up with comment of we went further than we wanted from Atkins and Vladdy acting all righteous based on Soto numbers that he values himself a step down at 600 million. Atkins and Shapiro you can see feel very disappointed and comments of "risk" from both indicated they were at their max of 500 million but not willing to go 600 million because of Vladdy's past history.

Will be interesting if Vladdy swings for the fences this year and screws up his approach trying to prove he is a 600-700 million man!

[Mac]

The worst part for me was how inevitable today's news was. I hoped but really had no confidence in this front office to get anything done.

The first thing they did to upset me is when they rushed out to sign Kendrys Morales a month after Edwin walked off the Wild Card game. These two don't know how to value their own players. The cost to this franchise if Vlad walks over to Boston will be incalculable.