General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Terminator]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-june-30-july-6/

The Jays have vaulted all the way to 2nd place in the Fangraphs highly respected power rankings

[Omar]

5 hours ago, Nexii said:

It definitely feels like the Jays have caught onto something as a team with regards to hitting philosophy/approach. A lot of young players significantly outplaying projections.

You know there has always been a small contingent on this board over the past few years that blamed the hitting coaches/coordinators for the Jays offensive woes.  I've always been skeptical about the overall influence of said coaches and thought that a players talent (or lack thereof) is the final arbiter of their success.   Now that they have caught lightening in a bottle this season with the advent of the Popkins era I may have to reconsider.  Could Guillermo Martinez have been that bad? He was there in 2021 after all?

[Nexii]

14 minutes ago, Omar said:

You know there has always been a small contingent on this board over the past few years that blamed the hitting coaches/coordinators for the Jays offensive woes.  I've always been skeptical about the overall influence of said coaches and thought that a players talent (or lack thereof) is the final arbiter of their success.   Now that they have caught lightening in a bottle this season with the advent of the Popkins era I may have to reconsider.  Could Guillermo Martinez have been that bad? He was there in 2021 after all?

Yea I'm kinda surprised that FG or the like haven't done more sabermetrics around off-field metrics. Like FV against actual career WAR for various teams. Or whether year-to-year WAR exceeds projections for MLB calibre players. It seems like player development is where the real surplus value is these days. On field metrics have gotten so good that FA signing values are rarely much of a surprise.

As far as the Jays yea maybe it's just luck lately after a period of bad luck. Personally I don't think it is entirely luck. Coaching/development is huge in any sport, especially one like baseball that's more on the skill side as opposed to raw athleticism. 

[june.june]

With the emergence of Barger who we all hope is not just a hot streak but more of a major step up to his development plus Clement who can slide in to assume part time 3rd base role, maybe the Jays may no longer need that added offensive boost.

 

what they need now is a no.1 or no.2 pitcher who can be the Ace with a mental strength when it matters most (playoffs) under the bright lights.

 

thank the baseball gods that we buried the stench of Guillermo.  Popkins contribution to this team cannot be underestimated. 
 

but the low hanging fruit IMO is Schneider, most I am sure have lack or zero confidence that he can be the manager to a team with deep playoff aspirations.

 

 

[Pendleton]

The boys 

[mphenhef]

12 hours ago, Pendleton said:

The boys 

I started reading this quote and thought it was referring to Vlad's bat waking up.

[Brownie19]

15 hours ago, Terminator said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-june-30-july-6/

The Jays have vaulted all the way to 2nd place in the Fangraphs highly respected power rankings

Ric Flair becoming the board's #1 meme is incredible.  I love it.  Term for Prez.

[Pendleton]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45690005/mlb-2025-midseason-grades-all-30-teams-astros-tigers-cubs-dodgers-mets-yankees

 

[Laika]

Since May 26th, Toronto is:

• #1 in MLB in hitter fWAR
• #1 in MLB in defensive value by a lot
• #1 in MLB in wRC+ and team wOBA
• #1 in MLB in lowest K rate and it's not even close. An absurd 14.9%.
• #2 in MLB in runs scored (221, vs 222 for TB and 208 for #3 LAD)
• +48 in run differential 

The pitching staff has been mediocre in that stretch. 

[Ryu In My House]

How's about this trade...

We get the following from the Pirates:

1. Mitch Keller
2. David Bednar

We trade - dunno. Anyone but Nimmala.

Maybe Orelvis Martinez, Yesavage, Clase, Wagner, Roden+ 

[Nexii]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Since May 26th, Toronto is:

• #1 in MLB in hitter fWAR
• #1 in MLB in defensive value by a lot
• #1 in MLB in wRC+ and team wOBA
• #1 in MLB in lowest K rate and it's not even close. An absurd 14.9%.
• #2 in MLB in runs scored (221, vs 222 for TB and 208 for #3 LAD)
• +48 in run differential 

The pitching staff has been mediocre in that stretch. 

Yea I feel like too many fans hype up the Jays pitching to be way better than it actually is. Especially considering our elite defense. I guess we've always had slugging teams when competitive as opposed to pitching. So maybe that's why

[jaysblue]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Since May 26th, Toronto is:

• #1 in MLB in hitter fWAR
• #1 in MLB in defensive value by a lot
• #1 in MLB in wRC+ and team wOBA
• #1 in MLB in lowest K rate and it's not even close. An absurd 14.9%.
• #2 in MLB in runs scored (221, vs 222 for TB and 208 for #3 LAD)
• +48 in run differential 

The pitching staff has been mediocre in that stretch. 

Ironic that when the pitching staff has been lights out in the past (whether it was earlier this season or in 2023 for example), the hitting was mediocre during those stretches. During those time periods, the team never really went on a run like they have over this last month. Things just feel different and the results in the standings show. 

[jaysblue]

52 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Yea I feel like too many fans hype up the Jays pitching to be way better than it actually is. Especially considering our elite defense. I guess we've always had slugging teams when competitive as opposed to pitching. So maybe that's why

Yeah this team has been its most competitive when they've had teams solid offensively (2015, 2016, 2021 and now currently). When the Jays have had elite pitching and no bats (for example, 2008, 2022, 2023), things were frustrating at times and those teams were never really able to go on a run like we saw the other teams and this years team has done. 

Makes you want to conclude that it's more important to have a very good lineup that could also field very well, over elite pitching during the regular season. If this team could add deGrom to the top of the rotation, this Jays team becomes a serious World Series contender. 

[Terminator]

Just now, Ryu In My House said:

How's about this trade...

We get the following from the Pirates:

1. Mitch Keller
2. David Bednar

We trade - dunno. Anyone but Nimmala.

Maybe Orelvis Martinez, Yesavage, Roden+ 

I'd rather keep Yeasavage and trade Nimmala tbh but I like getting that package.

Keller is a playoff starter and Bednar is a high-velocity late-inning guy.

Keller under team control through 2028 and Bednar through 2026 so neither are rentals.

[glory]

Keller does seem like a realistic Atkins pickup. Locked up for a few years and has a history of durability. Not sure I'd trust him any more or less than what the Jays currently have, seems like another #3-ish type to add to the rotation full of #3's the Jays already have, but might be as good of a SP as they can realistically get at the deadline. Whether I'd trade Nimmala for him is a different story. Nimmala has been on a horrendous slump for over a month, and is still a league average offensive player at 19 in A+ with respectable a BB%, K%, and ISO. If you're trading him, then I'd prefer someone with a bit more upside coming back. Though I don't know how the Jays feel about him, nor what the league as a whole does. If he actually makes MLB at some point, then I'm sure Rogers could probably get some extra dollars from that (especially if he's good), but that's far from a certainty at this point. 

[PickleJ]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I'd rather keep Yeasavage and trade Nimmala tbh but I like getting that package.

Keller is a playoff starter and Bednar is a high-velocity late-inning guy.

Keller under team control through 2028 and Bednar through 2026 so neither are rentals.

Any way to do that deal without Yesevage or Nimmala? Those are the only two prospects I don’t want dealt. I think you can get either one individually without Yesevage or Nimmala. 

On a Pirates related note, are they obligated to sign every lefty that the Jays let go? I see they’ve trotted out Mayza, Borucki, and Cabrera so far this year. 

[PickleJ]

7 minutes ago, glory said:

Keller does seem like a realistic Atkins pickup. Locked up for a few years and has a history of durability. Not sure I'd trust him any more or less than what the Jays currently have, seems like another #3-ish type to add to the rotation full of #3's the Jays already have, but might be as good of a SP as they can realistically get at the deadline. Whether I'd trade Nimmala for him is a different story. Nimmala has been on a horrendous slump for over a month, and is still a league average offensive player at 19 in A+ with respectable a BB%, K%, and ISO. If you're trading him, then I'd prefer someone with a bit more upside coming back. Though I don't know how the Jays feel about him, nor what the league as a whole does. If he actually makes MLB at some point, then I'm sure Rogers could probably get some extra dollars from that (especially if he's good), but that's far from a certainty at this point. 

I like Keller. Not many true aces out there. And Keller can replace Bassitt’s mid rotation spot next season and for a lower dollar figure. But I’m not a big fan of including either Yesevage or Nimmala. He’s not David Cone. 😊 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, Ryu In My House said:

How's about this trade...

We get the following from the Pirates:

1. Mitch Keller
2. David Bednar

We trade - dunno. Anyone but Nimmala.

Maybe Orelvis Martinez, Yesavage, Clase, Wagner, Roden+ 

Yesavage is too much to give up for them imo but I could see any of those others guys (not sure they get it done but it is the Pirates so you never know)

 

[glory]

4 minutes ago, PickleJ said:

I like Keller. Not many true aces out there. And Keller can replace Bassitt’s mid rotation spot next season and for a lower dollar figure. But I’m not a big fan of including either Yesevage or Nimmala. He’s not David Cone. 😊 

Keller is a good SP, but makes $16.5M in 2026, $18M in 2027, and $20M in 2028. That's not unreasonable for what he is, but it's closer to a FA contract, so you'd be paying very close to full freight from an AAV standpoint. The Pirates should still be able to get a good package for him, but I don't think it would require Nimmala or Yesavage, though I could be wrong.

Atkins has invested a lot with SP's that have a history of durability, and Keller is on pace for his 4th straight 30+ start season. I think there will be real interest there. 

[Terminator]

17 minutes ago, PickleJ said:

Any way to do that deal without Yesevage or Nimmala?

I doubt it.

These are pretty good pitchers with multiple years of control so we will have to give up something of significance to (1) make it worth the Pirates' while (they could just keep these guys and try again next year) and (2) outbid other teams.

Nimmala is ranked around #50 on the top prospect lists and is a 50 FV. Seems like it would be a fair ask of the Pirates to have him included. 

[PickleJ]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I doubt it.

These are pretty good pitchers with multiple years of control so we will have to give up something of significance to (1) make it worth the Pirates' while (they could just keep these guys and try again next year) and (2) outbid other teams.

Nimmala is ranked around #50 on the top prospect lists and is a 50 FV. Seems like it would be a fair ask of the Pirates to have him included. 

You are probably right. It would be reasonable for the Pirates to ask for Nimmala and they have the advantage of holding on to them both (I’m sure why they wouldn’t, actually). It probably will come down to how many buyers they are, how many other options the Jays have, and how funky the Pirates decision making process is (they can deal both these guys for good returns, but do they really need Yesevage or Nimmala; they already have starting pitching depth and I would think they would want players closer to the majors than Nimmala to help Skenes.)

[Terminator]

9 minutes ago, PickleJ said:

You are probably right. It would be reasonable for the Pirates to ask for Nimmala and they have the advantage of holding on to them both (I’m sure why they wouldn’t, actually). It probably will come down to how many buyers they are, how many other options the Jays have, and how funky the Pirates decision making process is (they can deal both these guys for good returns, but do they really need Yesevage or Nimmala; they already have starting pitching depth and I would think they would want players closer to the majors than Nimmala to help Skenes.)

I guess the Pirates owner is facing heat for being cheap and not winning when he's got Skenes and Cruz.

If he actually cares maybe they would consider taking 4 MLB-ready Buffalo Boys for Keller and Bednar? Their lineup is trash and they have no bench.

So something like 3 or 4 of Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, Schreck, Jimenez, Pinango and Clase? We could also send them Francis as well.

The Marlins are another team that could go for something like that I guess.

[jaysblue]

People tend to forget that Bednar is already 30 and last season looked toast. Granted, he's bounced back big this season so that's a plus, but couldn't care about how much control a 30+ year old reliever has left. He is only under control for one more season anyways, so not crazy about giving up a top guy like Nimmala + more to get Bednar included in a deal. 

As for Keller, he has control for three more seasons and Atkins historically has liked trading for players with control. $16.9M in 2026, $18.4M in 2027 and $20.4M in 2028, which is quite reasonable if he continues to post 2-3 WAR seasons. Pirates might want to rid themselves of that contract anyways, so who knows what they ask for. 

Keller is a solid arm, but he's no different than what the Jays have right now IMO with Berrios, Gausman and Bassitt. He's a solid mid-rotation arm and in essence replaces Bassitt for next season. As well, Jays would save money with Keller since signing a similar starter likely would be around $20M+ AAV per season. 

You can never have enough pitching especially down the stretch, so Keller would be a nice addition. Not an ace by any means, though he could start a Postseason game for sure and maybe Pete Walker could untap some more potential from him. 

[jaysblue]

1. Berrios
2. Keller
3. Gausman
4. Bassitt
5. Lauer
6. Scherzer 
7. Manoah
8. Francis

Nice depth for sure if Keller is added. 

Tough right now in terms of who you would lock into the Jays Postseason rotation other than around 2 names. I guess depends on how everyone is pitching and who has been dealing leading into October. 

Like for example, if Scherzer puts together a string of starts like he did vs. the Yankees on June 30th, you have to factor him into the rotation. But yeah that's a huge IF haha. 

[PickleJ]

18 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I guess the Pirates owner is facing heat for being cheap and not winning when he's got Skenes and Cruz.

If he actually cares maybe they would consider taking 4 MLB-ready Buffalo Boys for Keller and Bednar? Their lineup is trash and they have no bench.

So something like 3 or 4 of Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, Schreck, Jimenez, Pinango and Clase? We could also send them Francis as well.

The Marlins are another team that could go for something like that I guess.

Sorry if this becomes a double post. I thought I submitted a reply but it vanished into the ether. Short for of that…

Helps to deal with teams facing external pressures. 

If I’m the Pirates, then I’d be searching for line up help a level up from the buffalo boys., especially for Keller. It sure the Jays can provide that. Too bad Martinez wasn’t  on a heater in AAA.

We did trade Martin and Woods-Richardson for Berrios. I like Nimmala and yes save better, but that could be recency bias  

[John_Havok]

Injury updates:

Burr: probably dead

Manoah: Tentatively scheduled to move into rehab games after his most recent two-inning live BP went well, but the Blue Jays will continue to evaluate Manoah daily. (updated July 9). Mid to late August return target.

Varsho: Status: Continues to run the bases without issue and should progress to rehab games soon. (updated July 9). Possible mid-July return.

Sandlin: Felt the elbow discomfort during his recent appearance in Chicago and will continue to be evaluated. (updated July 9). Guesstimate is late July unless damage is found. Right now just inflammation.

Santander: Still not swinging the bat, but "hopefully soon," according to John Schneider. (updated July 7). Anyone's guess is as good as theirs on a return date. Late August?

Francis: Has thrown one side session at the club's complex in Florida and "is doing all right." (updated July 7) return date is TBD

Schultz: Started playing catch on flat ground and will continue to ramp up. (updated July 7). R middle finger inflammation.

Yimi: Slipped in the hot/cold tub after a recent appearance against the Yankees, so he will undergo an MRI and the club hoped he just needs some rest through the All-Star break.

Tiedeman: nothing really new, his status hasn't been updated since he was throwing on flat ground out to 120 feet in early May. The organization hopes Tiedemann will see game action by the end of 2025. 

[Laika]

Will Robertson to CHW for cash. 

Pretty gross turn of events. Pushed off the roster for Burr who has his arm blow up immediately. 

[John_Havok]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Will Robertson to CHW for cash. 

Pretty gross turn of events. Pushed off the roster for Burr who has his arm blow up immediately. 

Unfortunately yeah, but good for him to get to go to a place where he'll get a chance to play. 

Wish the return was at least a warm body, but...oh well

[Grant77]

Is DJ LeMahieu the righty bench bat that some think we need? I personally think he's toast, but he fits the profile somewhat.

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, Grant77 said:

Is DJ LeMahieu the righty bench bat that some think we need? I personally think he's toast, but he fits the profile somewhat.

He has reverse splits this year and last so not sure he is the bat they are looking for.