General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Terminator]

Maybe being back at home is what we need.

Just one week at home before we were off to play in s***** weather for two weeks.

Get back inside in the dome conditions and now it's time to mash. 

[BatFlip]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

Maybe being back at home is what we need.

Just one week at home before we were off to play in s***** weather for two weeks.

Get back inside in the dome conditions and now it's time to mash. 

[max silver]

38 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

BA has Jays taking HS shortstop Willits, in its latest mock.

 

8. Blue Jays — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS

As noted above, Willits has a significant opportunity to make noise later this week in a matchup with Ethan Holliday and Stillwater High. He’s a model darling already given his age, performance history and defensive profile. Toronto clearly values the age component and, given their pick of Arjun Nimmala at 20th overall in 2023, this selection would make a lot of sense for them. Willits has a legitimate chance to be the first shortstop off the board, and I could see him in play as high as first overall. At this point, it feels to me that he’s more likely to go first overall than to slide out of the first 10 picks.

Super small sample size alert but Nimmala is sitting at a 21% k rate right now.

[Spanky99]

47 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

BA has Jays taking HS shortstop Willits, in its latest mock.

 

8. Blue Jays — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS

As noted above, Willits has a significant opportunity to make noise later this week in a matchup with Ethan Holliday and Stillwater High. He’s a model darling already given his age, performance history and defensive profile. Toronto clearly values the age component and, given their pick of Arjun Nimmala at 20th overall in 2023, this selection would make a lot of sense for them. Willits has a legitimate chance to be the first shortstop off the board, and I could see him in play as high as first overall. At this point, it feels to me that he’s more likely to go first overall than to slide out of the first 10 picks.

You forgot the link to the video, jimmyc...
 

 

[L54]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

That team slapped it's way to a world series championship.

Correct 

[Laika]

54 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

BA has Jays taking HS shortstop Willits, in its latest mock.

 

8. Blue Jays — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS

As noted above, Willits has a significant opportunity to make noise later this week in a matchup with Ethan Holliday and Stillwater High. He’s a model darling already given his age, performance history and defensive profile. Toronto clearly values the age component and, given their pick of Arjun Nimmala at 20th overall in 2023, this selection would make a lot of sense for them. Willits has a legitimate chance to be the first shortstop off the board, and I could see him in play as high as first overall. At this point, it feels to me that he’s more likely to go first overall than to slide out of the first 10 picks.

Probably a good guess. I really do think Toronto is a "model driven" team at this point

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Silver linings for Vlad:

•  Despite the power outage, he's still putting up a passable 118 wRC+, with a pretty decent .366 OBP which is mostly carried by a high batting average (which xBA actually thinks undersells him). 
• His xSLG is .478, which is over 100 points higher than his actual
• The major change here has been that he's not really putting the ball in the air all that much, except for a brutal IFFB rate of his few flyballs
• He's making up for it with a big jump in line drive rate, and he's not actually hitting ground balls at a higher rate than normal. So the getting on base ability hasn't been fluky thus far, he just hasn't been a HR threat at all, barrel rate is down and this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone
• His oppo % is huge, kind of in a gross way. He's going to the opposite field more often than he's pulling the ball. This could be fine, because he has the raw power to cause damage to the opposite field, but the eye test tells me most of those oppo batted balls are well placed line drives for singles. He either needs to start pulling the ball more, or start launching bombs to the opposite field

Given that we've now paid him and he's not going away any time soon, might as well start sniffing the copium, look under the hood and hope that he is that hitting powerhouse capable of carrying our offense. This start for him was essentially the recipe for 2024 Vlad, lots of singles and a decent OBP, xWOBA looking like a real threat waiting to break out with some regression.

slashing a lot of "doubles trajectory" liners to the opposite field and an unlucky number of those have been caught 

definitely a much better disease than slapping everything into the dirt 

the xwOBA god has a .385 xwOBA after all 

King Vlad 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Super small sample size alert but Nimmala is sitting at a 21% k rate right now.

who you take in the draft should not be impacted by the minor league or major league rosters one bit.  Take the best player available regardless of position.

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Super small sample size alert but Nimmala is sitting at a 21% k rate right now.

Yeah, 158 wRC+ over his first 8 games at high A

Hopefully he keeps that up and moves on to AA later this season.

[max silver]

35 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

who you take in the draft should not be impacted by the minor league or major league rosters one bit.  Take the best player available regardless of position.

Absolutely, I wasn't implying the team shouldn't be drafting more short stop but was simply outlining the early improvements to Nimmala's strikeout rate early in the season.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Spanky99 said:

You forgot the link to the video, jimmyc...
 

 

That is a pretty terrible showcase video.  I saw lots of little flairs blooped over the infielders head.  Looks like he's a switch hitter though, which is pretty cool.

[Terminator]

Varsho should be back soon and Scherzer sounds cooked

[Laika]

Scherzer legit conned ross for $15m

He knew he could barely pitch and just wanted one last payday 

That or he spent a month in the clubhouse and just said nah f*** this time to do the thumb scam again 

[Terminator]

The imaging keeps coming up clean so I am using my internet MD to diagnose him with some sort of nerve issue

 

[glory]

Yeah there's a real possibility Scherzer doesn't pitch again from the looks of it. Not sure if he'd consider trying to come out of the pen every few days but if that flares up every time he starts and gets to around 50 pitches or so, then the chances of him starting again seem really low. 

(B)Easton Lucas being this year's Bowden Francis went from a nice outcome to a necessity at this point. There really isn't much dependable SP depth otherwise. 

[John_Havok]

3 hours ago, mphenhef said:

who you take in the draft should not be impacted by the minor league or major league rosters one bit.  Take the best player available regardless of position.

One caveat to that applies, take the best player available that you have a damn good idea will sign with you regardless of position

 

[glory]

Alan Roden's statcast page right now is disgusting. Ranks between 1-8 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg EV, barrel %, hard hit %, and LA sweet spot. On top of well below average bat speed. It's still very early, and he's obviously getting his first taste of the big leagues, but he's not young, and I believe there were concerns about a lot of those things (quality of contact) in the minors. Wagner hasn't been quite as bad from a statcast standpoint, but still pretty bad. 

If the Jays are still in it at the deadline then I think they probably need 2 bats, one at 3B (definitely) and another at DH/OF (unless Roden turns things around). 

[BB17]

5 minutes ago, glory said:

Alan Roden's statcast page right now is disgusting. Ranks between 1-8 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg EV, barrel %, hard hit %, and LA sweet spot. On top of well below average bat speed. It's still very early, and he's obviously getting his first taste of the big leagues, but he's not young, and I believe there were concerns about a lot of those things (quality of contact) in the minors. Wagner hasn't been quite as bad from a statcast standpoint, but still pretty bad. 

If the Jays are still in it at the deadline then I think they probably need 2 bats, one at 3B (definitely) and another at DH/OF (unless Roden turns things around). 

He's got to make an adjustment, teams are just throwing down and in breaking stuff/high and away fastballs. Until he can show he can handle it, its going to be a struggle. 

Not uncommon at all for rookies to struggle but everyone probably got caught up in the good spring and in reality he's still a pretty fringe player (at least for this year). Also doesn't look like he can hit lefties which doesn't help his case. The defense does seem pretty good, so that's a positive.

[Laika]

45 minutes ago, glory said:

Alan Roden's statcast page right now is disgusting. Ranks between 1-8 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg EV, barrel %, hard hit %, and LA sweet spot. On top of well below average bat speed. It's still very early, and he's obviously getting his first taste of the big leagues, but he's not young, and I believe there were concerns about a lot of those things (quality of contact) in the minors. Wagner hasn't been quite as bad from a statcast standpoint, but still pretty bad. 

If the Jays are still in it at the deadline then I think they probably need 2 bats, one at 3B (definitely) and another at DH/OF (unless Roden turns things around). 

I don't think I have seen either of them really square up a baseball yet. 

[keggy]

20 hours ago, Laika said:

Scherzer legit conned ross for $15m

He knew he could barely pitch and just wanted one last payday 

That or he spent a month in the clubhouse and just said nah f*** this time to do the thumb scam again 

Scherzer is one of the most competitive psychopaths in baseball

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Alan Roden's statcast page right now is disgusting. Ranks between 1-8 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg EV, barrel %, hard hit %, and LA sweet spot. On top of well below average bat speed. It's still very early, and he's obviously getting his first taste of the big leagues, but he's not young, and I believe there were concerns about a lot of those things (quality of contact) in the minors. Wagner hasn't been quite as bad from a statcast standpoint, but still pretty bad. 

If the Jays are still in it at the deadline then I think they probably need 2 bats, one at 3B (definitely) and another at DH/OF (unless Roden turns things around). 

Yeah I’d give Roden and Wagner more rope but you're right to start scrutinizing them.

The margins between the various Buffalo Boys were razor-thin to start the year. I think we chose the guys with the best projections, but if one hits his 60th percentile and another hits his 45th, the former’s better. That's how close they are.

By the end of April we might want to consider the following:

• Clase is obviously getting some BABIP luck but his BB/K rates are MUCH improved and he’s an 80-grade runner. No power upside but could be a fine bottom of the order option.
• Barger’s got big raw power and has been playing playing the infield more than OF this year. I hated his defense last year but he can't be any worse than Wagner.
• Stefanic is a righty infield option with an elite hit tool that has been playing SS.

Then add in Varsho returning and you've got 4 options to replace Roden, Wagner, Lukes and Schneider. The clocks ticking for these guys! Better start hittin' or you can pack your bags for Buffalo!

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

He's got to make an adjustment, teams are just throwing down and in breaking stuff/high and away fastballs. Until he can show he can handle it, its going to be a struggle. 

Not uncommon at all for rookies to struggle but everyone probably got caught up in the good spring and in reality he's still a pretty fringe player (at least for this year). Also doesn't look like he can hit lefties which doesn't help his case. The defense does seem pretty good, so that's a positive.

It's a little early to write Roden off this early in the season before giving him a chance to prove he can make some adjustments. He had an awful debut in AAA last season over the first 3 weeks or thereabouts before he flipped a switch and entered beast mode the rest of the way out.

[Laika]

16 minutes ago, keggy said:

Scherzer is one of the most competitive psychopaths in baseball

that's why it was such an effective con 

[Terminator]

Looks like Barger is up for Lukes who is going to the paternity list

Lukes seemed like he wanted to stay with the club anyway, I wonder if this is a precursor to a demotion

[Laika]

16 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Looks like Barger is up for Lukes who is going to the paternity list

Lukes seemed like he wanted to stay with the club anyway, I wonder if this is a precursor to a demotion

Wife was in labour during last night's game. Feel bad for the dude, he knows how precarious his job is. 

[mphenhef]

21 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

That is a pretty terrible showcase video.  I saw lots of little flairs blooped over the infielders head.  Looks like he's a switch hitter though, which is pretty cool.

Maybe they are targeting Ross with this showcase?

[mphenhef]

22 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Looks like Barger is up for Lukes who is going to the paternity list

Lukes seemed like he wanted to stay with the club anyway, I wonder if this is a precursor to a demotion

Babies are expensive and major league salary is much nicer than minor league salary.

[Orgfiller]

33 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah I’d give Roden and Wagner more rope but you're right to start scrutinizing them.

The margins between the various Buffalo Boys were razor-thin to start the year. I think we chose the guys with the best projections, but if one hits his 60th percentile and another hits his 45th, the former’s better. That's how close they are.

By the end of April we might want to consider the following:

• Clase is obviously getting some BABIP luck but his BB/K rates are MUCH improved and he’s an 80-grade runner. No power upside but could be a fine bottom of the order option.
• Barger’s got big raw power and has been playing playing the infield more than OF this year. I hated his defense last year but he can't be any worse than Wagner.
• Stefanic is a righty infield option with an elite hit tool that has been playing SS.

Then add in Varsho returning and you've got 4 options to replace Roden, Wagner, Lukes and Schneider. The clocks ticking for these guys! Better start hittin' or you can pack your bags for Buffalo!

 

I actually think Clase's power potential isn't all that bad, it's whether he'll really get to it in games. In 2023 as a 21 year old he hit 20 HR with a .208 ISO, and in 2024 with Seattle's AAA affiliate he had 10 HR in 280 PAs with a .176 ISO before the trade. Fangraphs gave him a 50 raw power tool last season. He just hasn't gotten to that power in our org which unfortunately entirely adds up lol. He's quite the sleeper prospect, still hasn't even turned 23.

[glory]

8 minutes ago, Laika said:

Wife was in labour during last night's game. Feel bad for the dude, he knows how precarious his job is. 

He's been on the 40 man roster for what feels like 10 years and he still has an option remaining, so yeah he was probably like "I'm getting MLB money for as long as I can get it".

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Alan Roden's statcast page right now is disgusting. Ranks between 1-8 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg EV, barrel %, hard hit %, and LA sweet spot. On top of well below average bat speed. It's still very early, and he's obviously getting his first taste of the big leagues, but he's not young, and I believe there were concerns about a lot of those things (quality of contact) in the minors. Wagner hasn't been quite as bad from a statcast standpoint, but still pretty bad. 

If the Jays are still in it at the deadline then I think they probably need 2 bats, one at 3B (definitely) and another at DH/OF (unless Roden turns things around). 

Roden needs to start putting the ball in the air. He has a disgusting > 60% groundball rate, with a 10% line drive rate and a 30% IFFB rate. The ABs themselves haven't been poor and he's making contact, but he's not driving the ball at all. Seems like any pitch low in the zone is a recipe for a groundball, and on high pitches he's popping it up instead. You could at least live with a bit of a slap hitter if he turned a number of those ground balls into soft line drives into the outfield, but he's not doing that at the moment. He needs to work on his swing path badly.