The Ship is Sinking

[Tim Cooke]

O"Hearn didn't get consistent playing time until the O's fixed him and made him better. I don't think he's Turner or Vogelbach.

[Brownie19]

O"Hearn didn't get consistent playing time until the O's fixed him and made him better. I don't think he's Turner or Vogelbach.

 

Great point Tim. The O's fixed him in 11 games in AAA before calling him up. Oh and his production in those 11 games (175 wRC+) was actually worse than his last stint in AAA with the Royals (251 wRC+ in 19 games)

[glory]

The Jays have done this for like 3 games man. Perhaps they want to see how Vlad looks at 3rd before they call up Horwitz?

 

Don't forget the O's created playing time for Ryan O'Hearn, who's like 30 and was a career minor leaguer.

 

They fixed O’Hearn (or he became better somehow) and then gave him more playing time. He’s more comparable to someone like Clement than Vogelbach/Turner. Regardless, the fact that they spent $15m on Turner/Vogelbach (what was their combined projection, 1 WAR?) instead of just playing the 26 year old DH they had on their roster making $700k is pretty indicative of what I’m talking about. I understand the depth and options component to all of this but it’s kind of meaningless when the depth are the ones with potential and the big leaguers (KK, Turner, Craig’s son, Vogelbach, etc) are fungible no upside talent making a combined $30m. There’s a disconnect somewhere. Or the org wasn’t being genuine about wanting “waves of talent”.

[AMS528]

The Jays have done this for like 3 games man. Perhaps they want to see how Vlad looks at 3rd before they call up Horwitz?

 

Don't forget the O's created playing time for Ryan O'Hearn, who's like 30 and was a career minor leaguer.

 

I think really I just don't get how playing a -0.3 WAR DH, who put up 0.2 WAR in 100 games last year and weighs 400 pounds give or take, provides value over just playing Horwitz who's 26 and not even young anyways.

 

If Horwitz sucks, he sucks, but at least find out what you've got. There's no long term vision in which Vogelbach means anything to this team.

 

And don't give me, they want Horwitz playing everyday. He's had over 900 AAA ABs at this point. He's been playing everyday at AAA for his third year running right now.

[Brownie19]

I think really I just don't get how playing a -0.3 WAR DH, who put up 0.2 WAR in 100 games last year and weighs 400 pounds give or take, provides value over just playing Horwitz who's 26 and not even young anyways.

 

If Horwitz sucks, he sucks, but at least find out what you've got. There's no long term vision in which Vogelbach means anything to this team.

 

And don't give me, they want Horwitz playing everyday. He's had over 900 AAA ABs at this point. He's been playing everyday at AAA for his third year running right now.

 

I don't disagree with that at all. I'm just saying it's been 2 games (not 3, my bad) that Vlad has played at 3rd. I fully agree that if they are going to play Vlad at 3rd regularly moving forward, that added Horwitz to the starting lineup, to see what he is, would be a good idea. I'm just not going to get all worked up when they don't do that immediately.

 

The team hasn't yet given up on this season (which they probably shouldn't, even if there's only a 15% chance of turning it around). Once they do wave the white flag, I fully expect we'll see more minor league guys given an extended look.

Edited June 5, 2024 by Brownie19

[Tim Cooke]

I read a Baltimore Banner article on him over the winter since I'm interested in what the O's do in terms of what Toronto could do in the future. O'Hearn changed his swing in Spring Training 2023, killed it, didn't make the team because of log jams, got called up, was okay, sent back down because of options, and then when he was needed again in late May, he was able to translate the swing and stance changes to the majors. His success with the O's versus the Royals is night and day. Apparently when the O's traded for him for cash, they had identified that the tweak in stance could make a big difference and was worth the gamble.

[Brownie19]

I read a Baltimore Banner article on him over the winter since I'm interested in what the O's do in terms of what Toronto could do in the future. O'Hearn changed his swing in Spring Training 2023, killed it, didn't make the team because of log jams, got called up, was okay, sent back down because of options, and then when he was needed again in late May, he was able to translate the swing and stance changes to the majors. His success with the O's versus the Royals is night and day. Apparently when the O's traded for him for cash, they had identified that the tweak in stance could make a big difference and was worth the gamble.

 

I suspect a significant swing change would take most of the offseason to master (lots of muscle memory to change). Did it say if he did this under the direct supervision of the O's, or did he does this on his own with an external swing coach? I see he didn't even become an Oriole until like January 3rd.

[Masterbather]

I don't disagree with that at all. I'm just saying it's been 2 games (not 3, my bad) that Vlad has played at 3rd. I fully agree that if they are going to play Vlad at 3rd regularly moving forward, that added Horwitz to the starting lineup, to see what he is, would be a good idea. I'm just not going to get all worked up when they don't do that immediately.

 

The team hasn't yet given up on this season (which they probably shouldn't, even if there's only a 15% chance of turning it around). Once they do wave the white flag, I fully expect we'll see more minor league guys given an extended look.

I would think bringing up Horwitz is part of NOT waving the white flag. The point is he can't possibly be worse than what they are rolling out there everyday. Barger too.

[Tim Cooke]

Here is the article from a week ago: https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-ryan-ohearn-swing-change-breaking-balls-analysis-LJTFSCJKJVCB5GEC2K7CDIOIBE/

 

Ryan O’Hearn was, understandably, skeptical.

 

After years of floundering on the Royals, he was finally hitting with the Orioles. Then, one day he arrived at the ballpark and the hitting coaches told him it was time for a change.

 

“Why?” he asked. “I’m hitting .260. I haven’t hit .260 in the big leagues in a long time. This is the best it’s gone. Why would we do anything to change it?”

 

It’s been about a year since that conversation, and in that time, O’Hearn has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball. For him, the change has ensured his early season breakout with the Orioles last year wasn’t a temporary one. For the Orioles’ hitting brain trust, it was an opportunity to use data and video breakdown to show a player what holes opposing pitchers may start attacking before they arise.

 

“I trusted them, and obviously it’s paying off, big-time,” O’Hearn said.

 

The change comes down to O’Hearn’s hand placement and how he held his bat. Early in 2023, O’Hearn’s bat was much more horizontal as he awaited a pitch. His bat being flat in his stance allowed him to hit fastballs well, especially at the top of the strike zone. That’s a valuable skill in a league where so many pitchers elevate their four-seam fastballs, but left little adjustability for pitches lower in the strike zone.

 

“Breaking balls gave him a really tough time,” co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller said. “We said, ‘If we start with your bat a little bit more vertical, it’s going to be a little easier to scoop those balls when they’re in the zone at the bottom.’”

 

O’Hearn said: “What they wanted to change was my bat, and my torso and my bat were almost like all connected. There was no adjustability in my hands, to be able to adjust to a high pitch or a low pitch. It was just all together.”

 

Such a change has been a common one in the minor leagues for Orioles hitting prospects, unlocking better zone coverage for countless young hitters in the system over the last few years. The Orioles’ hitting coaches also came armed with major league success stories as they explained to O’Hearn why the change could work.

 

He had little reason to push back.

 

“Nothing else was working,” he said. “Obviously, I didn’t know what I was doing. I hadn’t had success in years. When I did have success, I didn’t know why.” A coach O’Hearn had hit with in the offseason, Dan Hennigan, vouched for Fuller.

 

“I was like, ‘If Dan says this guy is good and the O’s say this guy is good, look how good the Orioles’ offense is, and he’s been working with all these hitters,’” O’Hearn said. “Why wouldn’t I trust him?”

 

That trust was also built quickly upon O’Hearn’s arrival in the organization. In spring training, he did significant work on his lower body and posture to help him cover more of the plate, which helped spur some of his early success.

 

It’s a delicate balance as a coach to suggest something when a player is already performing, but when the alternative is to wait until they’re struggling or the results turn south, the relationships that exists between coaches and a player can make those conversations easier.

 

“It’s about not being afraid of saying, ‘This is what we believe, we want you to be your best, we care about you, here’s our thoughts right away.’” Fuller said. “We want the game to teach them lessons, but we want to be there to help make those lessons really manageable and have them be able to excel at them.”

 

The approach worked well with O’Hearn. It was a gradual process, one he feels started to take hold when he hit a game-tying home run off a slider from Blue Jays reliever Jordan Romano a little over a year ago. He believes something clicked pre-game that day on hitting sliders, and the moment he broke through into Orioles’ fans’ consciousness doubled as a breakthrough moment in his work.

 

“I had that confidence that this really was working,” he said.

 

The first time you could noticeably tell his bat was being held at a different angle in-game was May 31. Before that change, O’Hearn was a career .180 hitter on non-fastballs with a .342 slugging percentage, .330 expected slugging percentage, a .245 weighed on-base average (wOBA) and .251 xwOBA.

 

In the year since, entering Tuesday’s game, he was hitting .246 on non-fastballs with a .454 slugging percentage, .448 expected slugging, and .316 wOBA and .307 xwOBA. Given O’Hearn still crushes fastballs, covering those pitches helped him sustain an .813 OPS since last May 31 and an .809 OPS with 21 home runs in an Orioles uniform.

 

He’s cut down on his swing-and-miss and strikeout rates while enjoying some of the best expected stats of anyone in the game, thanks to his consistent hard elevated contact. In 2024, he entered Tuesday’s game with seven home runs and an expected slugging percentage of .593 against an actual slugging percentage of .485.

 

“Now, when you look at his performance against pitch types, he’s hitting breaking balls really well and fastballs,” Fuller said. “That’s what we want our guys to be able to do.”

Edited June 5, 2024 by Tim Cooke
added article date

[Brownie19]

Interesting - thanks for sharing. So this wasn't an offseason change, nor did they fix him before they called him up and put him in the lineup. Amazing how a subtle change in his bat angle can be fixed so quickly, with such great results. I know Varsho made similar adjustments to his bat angle this offseason too. It's wild to think the 102 win O's gave a 29 year old who hadn't broken a 71 wRC+ in the majors over the past 4 years extended time in the lineup....and it totally worked! They are certainly playing 4D chess right now.

[Tim Cooke]

No problem. I would still call it a fix - Spring Training 2023 was when he showed massive improvement. At the very least a transformation. Never had that level of sustained success at the major league level.

 

I think it's working well at the margins. I remember when Steve Pearce killed us in 2014. I had no idea who this journeyman guy was who all of the sudden has a .930 OPS. O's won division in 2014 and he was a big reason. He was even DFA'ed early in the season that year! Getting value out of every person on the 26 man roster / 40 man matters. Mixture of luck and development but also need that dose of luck.

 

But not everything works. O's picked up Thyago Viera from the Brewers with the hopes of working with him but the numbers game caught him and he was DFA'ed after 1 horrible performance. Bautista and Cano were also reclamantion projects.

[Brownie19]

No problem. I would still call it a fix. At the very least a transformation. Never had that level of sustained success at the major league level.

 

I think it's working at the margins. I remember when Steve Pearce killed us in 2014. I had no idea who this journeyman guy was. O's won division in 2014 and he was a big reason. He was even DFA'ed early in the season that year! Getting value out of every person on the 26 man roster / 40 man matters.

 

But not everything works. O's picked up Thyago Viera from the Brewers with the hopes of working with him but the numbers game caught him and he was DFA'ed after 1 horrible performance. Bautista and Cano were also reclamantion projects.

 

Typically, when you're not a contending team, you can take on a lot more reclamation projects (like the O's did with Bautista and Cano - or the Jays did with Bautista and EE). It's less common to see it happen on good baseball teams like the 2023 O's with O'Hearn, or even the 2015/2016 Jays (Chris Colabello and Justin Smoak). FWIW, I don't consider what they did with O'Hearn a transformation. What Justin Turner or Jose Bautista did to their swings was a transformation. Changing a bat angle (seemingly overnight) is just a tweak.

[CrackerJack]

Just under 29000 last night at RC on a beautiful June evening against a Division rival (well. Kind of) Do the math and draw your own conclusions.

 

Perfect night for baseball on Monday as well, and the giveaway was a Vladdy bobblehead. My wife and niece attended the game. They didn’t get to the Rogers Centre early to get the bobbleheads, instead we all went for a relaxing dinner downtown and then they just showed up at their empty stadium gate at a normal time. I couldn’t believe that they both still got a bobblehead. (It was the second smallest home crowd of the season so far.)

[hanton]

Here is the article from a week ago: https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-ryan-ohearn-swing-change-breaking-balls-analysis-LJTFSCJKJVCB5GEC2K7CDIOIBE/

 

Ryan O’Hearn was, understandably, skeptical.

 

After years of floundering on the Royals, he was finally hitting with the Orioles. Then, one day he arrived at the ballpark and the hitting coaches told him it was time for a change.

 

“Why?” he asked. “I’m hitting .260. I haven’t hit .260 in the big leagues in a long time. This is the best it’s gone. Why would we do anything to change it?”

 

It’s been about a year since that conversation, and in that time, O’Hearn has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball. For him, the change has ensured his early season breakout with the Orioles last year wasn’t a temporary one. For the Orioles’ hitting brain trust, it was an opportunity to use data and video breakdown to show a player what holes opposing pitchers may start attacking before they arise.

 

“I trusted them, and obviously it’s paying off, big-time,” O’Hearn said.

 

The change comes down to O’Hearn’s hand placement and how he held his bat. Early in 2023, O’Hearn’s bat was much more horizontal as he awaited a pitch. His bat being flat in his stance allowed him to hit fastballs well, especially at the top of the strike zone. That’s a valuable skill in a league where so many pitchers elevate their four-seam fastballs, but left little adjustability for pitches lower in the strike zone.

 

“Breaking balls gave him a really tough time,” co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller said. “We said, ‘If we start with your bat a little bit more vertical, it’s going to be a little easier to scoop those balls when they’re in the zone at the bottom.’”

 

O’Hearn said: “What they wanted to change was my bat, and my torso and my bat were almost like all connected. There was no adjustability in my hands, to be able to adjust to a high pitch or a low pitch. It was just all together.”

 

Such a change has been a common one in the minor leagues for Orioles hitting prospects, unlocking better zone coverage for countless young hitters in the system over the last few years. The Orioles’ hitting coaches also came armed with major league success stories as they explained to O’Hearn why the change could work.

 

He had little reason to push back.

 

“Nothing else was working,” he said. “Obviously, I didn’t know what I was doing. I hadn’t had success in years. When I did have success, I didn’t know why.” A coach O’Hearn had hit with in the offseason, Dan Hennigan, vouched for Fuller.

 

“I was like, ‘If Dan says this guy is good and the O’s say this guy is good, look how good the Orioles’ offense is, and he’s been working with all these hitters,’” O’Hearn said. “Why wouldn’t I trust him?”

 

That trust was also built quickly upon O’Hearn’s arrival in the organization. In spring training, he did significant work on his lower body and posture to help him cover more of the plate, which helped spur some of his early success.

 

It’s a delicate balance as a coach to suggest something when a player is already performing, but when the alternative is to wait until they’re struggling or the results turn south, the relationships that exists between coaches and a player can make those conversations easier.

 

“It’s about not being afraid of saying, ‘This is what we believe, we want you to be your best, we care about you, here’s our thoughts right away.’” Fuller said. “We want the game to teach them lessons, but we want to be there to help make those lessons really manageable and have them be able to excel at them.”

 

The approach worked well with O’Hearn. It was a gradual process, one he feels started to take hold when he hit a game-tying home run off a slider from Blue Jays reliever Jordan Romano a little over a year ago. He believes something clicked pre-game that day on hitting sliders, and the moment he broke through into Orioles’ fans’ consciousness doubled as a breakthrough moment in his work.

 

“I had that confidence that this really was working,” he said.

 

The first time you could noticeably tell his bat was being held at a different angle in-game was May 31. Before that change, O’Hearn was a career .180 hitter on non-fastballs with a .342 slugging percentage, .330 expected slugging percentage, a .245 weighed on-base average (wOBA) and .251 xwOBA.

 

In the year since, entering Tuesday’s game, he was hitting .246 on non-fastballs with a .454 slugging percentage, .448 expected slugging, and .316 wOBA and .307 xwOBA. Given O’Hearn still crushes fastballs, covering those pitches helped him sustain an .813 OPS since last May 31 and an .809 OPS with 21 home runs in an Orioles uniform.

 

He’s cut down on his swing-and-miss and strikeout rates while enjoying some of the best expected stats of anyone in the game, thanks to his consistent hard elevated contact. In 2024, he entered Tuesday’s game with seven home runs and an expected slugging percentage of .593 against an actual slugging percentage of .485.

 

“Now, when you look at his performance against pitch types, he’s hitting breaking balls really well and fastballs,” Fuller said. “That’s what we want our guys to be able to do.”

 

Thanks for posting this, did a bit of digging on Fuller, seems he's a swing path/pitch plane guy, influenced by Josh Donaldson and even Springer believe it or not. Looks like the Orioles implemented a new hitting philosophy through-out the entire organization - it has worked

 

Amazing stuff

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/orioles-co-hitting-coach-ryan-fuller-meets-players-where-they-are/

[Brownie19]

They fixed O’Hearn (or he became better somehow) and then gave him more playing time. He’s more comparable to someone like Clement than Vogelbach/Turner. Regardless, the fact that they spent $15m on Turner/Vogelbach (what was their combined projection, 1 WAR?) instead of just playing the 26 year old DH they had on their roster making $700k is pretty indicative of what I’m talking about. I understand the depth and options component to all of this but it’s kind of meaningless when the depth are the ones with potential and the big leaguers (KK, Turner, Craig’s son, Vogelbach, etc) are fungible no upside talent making a combined $30m. There’s a disconnect somewhere. Or the org wasn’t being genuine about wanting “waves of talent”.

 

What do you know. Just calm your tiddies...they've made room for Horwitz.

[BigCecil]

$50M AAV off season investment decisions - JT, Green, Y-Rod, KK, IKF, Vogelbach

 

42% of the season in the books & collective 2024 net positive WAR total = 0.9

[Stangstag]

$50M AAV off season investment decisions - JT, Green, Y-Rod, KK, IKF, Vogelbach

 

42% of the season in the books & collective 2024 net positive WAR total = 0.9

 

Not exactly a fair assessment since 3 of those guys were injured… but yeah not great so far

[Eat My Shatkins]

$50M AAV off season investment decisions - JT, Green, Y-Rod, KK, IKF, Vogelbach

 

42% of the season in the books & collective 2024 net positive WAR total = 0.9

 

 

The more damning an concerning problem is Bo 0.3 fWAR, Springer 0.3 fWAR and also Vladdy 1.2 fWAR

[L54]

Not exactly a fair assessment since 3 of those guys were injured… but yeah not great so far

 

Sure it is. They’re paying them that money and have gotten basically 0 return

[mphenhef]

Not exactly a fair assessment since 3 of those guys were injured… but yeah not great so far

 

Isn't it just 2 of them injured (Green and Y-Rod)? And you have to factor in injuries when a front office signs a 39 year old, a guy who hasn't pitched in a year and a guy coming off tommy john.

[max silver]

Sure it is. They’re paying them that money and have gotten basically 0 return

 

Green has allowed a few too many solo home runs which is primary reason for the low WAR total. The 2.03 ERA based on actual runs allowed is solid at this point. Rodriguez is more of a long term play, and as such I don't know if it's particularly reasonable to make an assessment on the quality of the deal at this juncture as it's such a small sample size. IKF has been a bit of a revelation and a home run signing based on the low AAV vs WAR production so far. Vogelbach makes chump change so it doesn't move the needle much either way. Turner has been a real mixed bag so far, as he was great in April (153 wRC+/0.6 FWAR), and then conversely awful in May (9 wRC+/-0.9 FWAR). That month of May is one of the worst I can recall in all of my time watching this team. He's shown signs of turning things around in recent weeks with a 139 wRC+ in his last 10 games so hopefully the worst is behind him.

[Laika]

Green has allowed a few too many solo home runs which is primary reason for the low WAR total. The 2.03 ERA based on actual runs allowed is solid at this point. Rodriguez is more of a long term play, and as such I don't know if it's particularly reasonable to make an assessment on the quality of the deal at this juncture as it's such a small sample size. IKF has been a bit of a revelation and a home run signing based on the low AAV vs WAR production so far. Vogelbach makes chump change so it doesn't move the needle much either way. Turner has been a real mixed bag so far, as he was great in April (153 wRC+/0.6 FWAR), and then conversely awful in May (9 wRC+/-0.9 FWAR). That month of May is one of the worst I can recall in all of my time watching this team. He's shown signs of turning things around in recent weeks with a 139 wRC+ in his last 10 games so hopefully the worst is behind him.

 

Yeah but you can still add it all up and do maths

[BatFlip]

$50M AAV off season investment decisions - JT, Green, Y-Rod, KK, IKF, Vogelbach

 

42% of the season in the books & collective 2024 net positive WAR total = 0.9

 

I ranted enough right after the IKF and KK signings, but the Y-Rod signing could still be sneaky good in the coming years.

[Terminator]

Allow me to polish this turd for everyone.

 

-Yariel is the only long term deal and early returns are encouraging.

-IKF was who we needed to pan out the most and he's delivering.

-Green has been solid to amazing according to bWAR, RA-9WAR, ERA, xERA and even xFIP. fWAR is the only one hating on him right now.

-Turner has had bad luck but even so he's a league average bat.

-Vogelbach has had AWFUL luck.

-Kiermaier is back in the black by accumulating .3 WAR since coming off the DL in about a month's worth of games. fWAR has always hated him.

[Laika]

Okay, Sheriff Fudge

[Masterbather]

The game plan from every team in baseball should be to throw fastballs down the middle to everyone except to maybe Jano, Varsho and Schneider.

 

I've never seen a team look so bad on middle middle fastballs.

[Masterbather]

Allow me to polish this turd for everyone.

 

-Yariel is the only long term deal and early returns are encouraging.

-IKF was who we needed to pan out the most and he's delivering.

-Green has been solid to amazing according to bWAR, RA-9WAR, ERA, xERA and even xFIP. fWAR is the only one hating on him right now.

-Turner has had bad luck but even so he's a league average bat.

-Vogelbach has had AWFUL luck.

-Kiermaier is back in the black by accumulating .3 WAR since coming off the DL in about a month's worth of games. fWAR has always hated him.

 

Damn, so much bad luck. It's incredible how we continue to have bad luck after a year of bad luck.

 

Since management is obviously doing a great job and we are just victims of bad luck what should we do?

 

Animal sacrifice? Human sacrifice? Do we call in a priest? Bishop? The Pope?!

[Laika]

The game plan from every team in baseball should be to throw fastballs down the middle to everyone except to maybe Jano, Varsho and Schneider.

 

I've never seen a team look so bad on middle middle fastballs.

 

They go up there with this dumb as f***, almost defensive mindset

 

Almost none of these hitters are thinking about crushing meatballs, ever

 

Vlad is trying to hit liners and groundballs up the middle for some genetic reason

 

Bo is trying to be Derek f***ing Jeter and slash every fastball to right field

 

I want to cry and die

[wilko]

Damn, so much bad luck. It's incredible how we continue to have bad luck after a year of bad luck.

 

Since management is obviously doing a great job and we are just victims of bad luck what should we do?

 

Animal sacrifice? Human sacrifice? Do we call in a priest? Bishop? The Pope?!

 

What the hell is Bishop from Aliens going to do?

[Terminator]

Damn, so much bad luck. It's incredible how we continue to have bad luck after a year of bad luck.

 

Since management is obviously doing a great job and we are just victims of bad luck what should we do?

 

Animal sacrifice? Human sacrifice? Do we call in a priest? Bishop? The Pope?!

 

Who said we have bad luck every year? I also never said that management is obviously doing a great job either.

 

Varsho seems to be having some amazing luck. Jansen and IKF are having good luck. A decent number of pitchers are having some good luck too.

 

The best luck of all is our pytho W-L which has us 3 wins better than what we deserve.