The Ship is Sinking

[MikeM3]

Look at the sellers. Rockies never sell. Angels and White Sox are retarded so they'll get a Drew Thorpe back instead of something good (Getz is retarded but their PD has already passed us). The Angels don't even have anything on top of it.

 

The only dangerous sellers are that cuck Bendix in Miami and the Rays.

 

But get this, none of them can retain or take back money like us.

[glory]

This deadline is an enormous fork in the road for the next 5 years. You have to sell everything you can. If you don't you're just tacking on years to the rebuild.

 

It's a perfect storm that has landed us as one of the most well positioned sellers with a justification to sell!

 

Yup, the 2021-23 competitive window could have been much better had they sold assets in July 2017 rather than waiting a year or two like they did and getting practically nothing.

 

I have no faith in them to do it, but it’s sort of a no brainer from a baseball standpoint. Rogers may not agree from a business standpoint but on the other hand telling them they can field a 65-70 win team with a $100m payroll instead of a 75 win team with a $240m (or whatever it is now) payroll might be somewhat convincing.

[jaysblue]

Yup, the 2021-23 competitive window could have been much better had they sold assets in July 2017 rather than waiting a year or two like they did and getting practically nothing.

 

I have no faith in them to do it, but it’s sort of a no brainer from a baseball standpoint. Rogers may not agree from a business standpoint but on the other hand telling them they can field a 65-70 win team with a $100m payroll instead of a 75 win team with a $240m (or whatever it is now) payroll might be somewhat convincing.

 

The 2021-2024 window could have also been much better if Atkins actually made upgrades to areas of weakness on the roster.

[John_Havok]

This deadline is an enormous fork in the road for the next 5 years. You have to sell everything you can. If you don't you're just tacking on years to the rebuild.

 

It's a perfect storm that has landed us as one of the most well positioned sellers with a justification to sell!

 

I agree. It will be a sellers market and the jays have pieces that are always coveted at the deadline.

 

I'd be pretty shocked is someone doesn't get fired if they get swept on Cleveland.

[connorp]

Ultimately having the team go in the tank they way they have can be a blessing in disguise vs hanging around the .500 mark approaching the deadline. Barring a completely miraculous extended winning streak this team appears to be done like dinner.

 

That’s the fat lady singing, folks.

[jaysblue]

Look at the sellers. Rockies never sell. Angels and White Sox are retarded so they'll get a Drew Thorpe back instead of something good (Getz is retarded but their PD has already passed us). The Angels don't even have anything on top of it.

 

The only dangerous sellers are that cuck Bendix in Miami and the Rays.

 

But get this, none of them can retain or take back money like us.

 

Mets could be sellers if they fall out of things. They have Alonso, Severino, JDM, Manaea and Quintana.

 

Rays likely shop Eflin, who will be attractive given he's under control for another season.

 

Jack Flaherty has been one of the better arms in the AL and likely will garner a lot of interest.

[jaysblue]

I agree. It will be a sellers market and the jays have pieces that are always coveted at the deadline.

 

I'd be pretty shocked is someone doesn't get fired if they get swept on Cleveland.

 

The Jays have pieces that will be coveted, but they'll have competition. Gotta hope a lot of their big trade chips can stay hot over the next month!

[Omar]

I agree. It will be a sellers market and the jays have pieces that are always coveted at the deadline.

 

I'd be pretty shocked is someone doesn't get fired if they get swept on Cleveland.

 

I just hope they don't become stubborn and drink their own Kool Aid and do nothing or very little. After all, selling is an admission of failure to some degree. Atkins seems the type to look after himself first.

[L54]

Ultimately having the team go in the tank they way they have can be a blessing in disguise vs hanging around the .500 mark approaching the deadline. Barring a completely miraculous extended winning streak this team appears to be done like dinner.

 

I hate to say atoadaso but we f***in atoadaso

[Dick_Pole]

Here comes the loser defeatist mentality again. "If only they tanked harder in 2017, they would have been better in 2021-23".

 

Uhh, no. If this team was better at drafting and player development, it would have been better in 2017 AND 2021.

 

Trading the pending free agents aren't going to bring in a haul big enough to move the needle long term. Bichette is at his lowest possible value and Guerrero has settled in to become an okay player but no one is going to pay much for his skill set. The only true rebuild is if you trade the four main starters and even that is questionable with Gausman not doing great and Berrios' value muted by his contract. Teams that have worse records than the Jays have better trade prospects. Which is a function of what this team has built. A 26 man roster of mediocrity. No one obscenely terrible except Springer and elements of the BP, no one great. 35-41 would have brought that fait to this team. A team performing just poorly enough that none of the guys to be traded in a proposed rebuilt are worth a damn.

 

The only option this team has is to roll with it and hope for the best. Don't be like the Angels last year, but it's also pointless to tear it down. Hope the team gets hot in the latter half of the year like historically it tends to do.

 

*my opinion is in no way shape or form biased by my bets I made a couple of weeks ago

[Dick_Pole]

Ultimately having the team go in the tank they way they have can be a blessing in disguise vs hanging around the .500 mark approaching the deadline. Barring a completely miraculous extended winning streak this team appears to be done like dinner.

 

No, it's not a blessing in disguise. A tank implies worse performing players and a declining trade value for these players. Enough with this loser mentality. Losing begets more losing it doesn't beget winning. Houston and Baltimore had more going on than just a bunch of 100 loss seasons.

[L54]

Here comes the loser defeatist mentality again. "If only they tanked harder in 2017, they would have been better in 2021-23".

 

Uhh, no. If this team was better at drafting and player development, it would have been better in 2017 AND 2021.

 

Trading the pending free agents aren't going to bring in a haul big enough to move the needle long term. Bichette is at his lowest possible value and Guerrero has settled in to become an okay player but no one is going to pay much for his skill set. The only true rebuild is if you trade the four main starters and even that is questionable with Gausman not doing great and Berrios' value muted by his contract. Teams that have worse records than the Jays have better trade prospects. Which is a function of what this team has built. A 26 man roster of mediocrity. No one obscenely terrible except Springer and elements of the BP, no one great. 35-41 would have brought that fait to this team. A team performing just poorly enough that none of the guys to be traded in a proposed rebuilt are worth a damn.

 

The only option this team has is to roll with it and hope for the best. Don't be like the Angels last year, but it's also pointless to tear it down. Hope the team gets hot in the latter half of the year like historically it tends to do.

 

*my opinion is in no way shape or form biased by my bets I made a couple of weeks ago

 

Wat

 

Ya hold the guys who aren’t even going to return the Jays calls in the offseason good idea

[Carlos Danger]

Here comes the loser defeatist mentality again. "If only they tanked harder in 2017, they would have been better in 2021-23".

 

Uhh, no. If this team was better at drafting and player development, it would have been better in 2017 AND 2021.

 

Trading the pending free agents aren't going to bring in a haul big enough to move the needle long term. Bichette is at his lowest possible value and Guerrero has settled in to become an okay player but no one is going to pay much for his skill set. The only true rebuild is if you trade the four main starters and even that is questionable with Gausman not doing great and Berrios' value muted by his contract. Teams that have worse records than the Jays have better trade prospects. Which is a function of what this team has built. A 26 man roster of mediocrity. No one obscenely terrible except Springer and elements of the BP, no one great. 35-41 would have brought that fait to this team. A team performing just poorly enough that none of the guys to be traded in a proposed rebuilt are worth a damn.

 

The only option this team has is to roll with it and hope for the best. Don't be like the Angels last year, but it's also pointless to tear it down. Hope the team gets hot in the latter half of the year like historically it tends to do.

 

*my opinion is in no way shape or form biased by my bets I made a couple of weeks ago

 

So if I am reading this correctly, just remain status quo and hope for the best? Normally your posts are more substantive than this.

 

What is the corrective action beside hope?

 

The issue with Bo and Vladdy, is that time is more of an enemy than performance.

 

If the Jays trade either or both, a team will have them for two playoff runs/playoffs.

 

Don’t trade prior to this year’s deadline. They have one year of value left to the receiving team.

 

Their value is not going to be higher than the 2024 pre trade deadline.

[Dick_Pole]

Wat

 

Ya hold the guys who aren’t even going to return the Jays calls in the offseason good idea

 

If the player in question would net you Jacob Waguespack or less in a deal, then yes, standing pat and hoping for the best is a perfectly viable choice.

[Dick_Pole]

So if I am reading this correctly, just remain status quo and hope for the best? Normally your posts are more substantive than this.

 

What is the corrective action beside hope?

 

The issue with Bo and Vladdy, is that time is more of an enemy than performance.

 

If the Jays trade either or both, a team will have them for two playoff runs/playoffs.

 

Don’t trade prior to this year’s deadline. They have one year of value left to the receiving team.

 

Their value is not going to be higher than the 2024 pre trade deadline.

 

No one is going to pay through the roof for a 120 OPS+ slap hitting first baseman with no speed making $20+ million a year. CJ Cron can be had for free basically any time. What did Juan Soto net this past offseason? Divide that by, like, 10 and that's Guerrero's return potential right now. Who gives a s*** if they trade him June 23, 2024 or July 31, 2025? At least in the latter scenario you have an outside chance of this guy getting his Babe Ruth mojo back and you have someone of value.

 

f***ing former MVP Josh Donaldson got you Jacob Waguespack in a similar down/injury year as Bichette is having. You think the O's are calling up and offering Jackson Holliday for him? Especially with a GM known to be a desperate beta male that accepts returns like Anthony Kay for top trade bait?

 

People are saying that the Jays shouldn't do a rebuild until Atkins is gone which is essentially the same as me saying stand pat yet my post isn't substantive. I guarantee you if Atkins went full on with the rebuild as those with the loser mentality wish, they all would be VERY disappointed with the return. And then have a 60 win team on top of it.

 

The biggest asset this team has right now is payroll flexibility. High payroll, relatively low long term commitments with nothing bad outside of Springer. The last thing we need is for Rogers to pull the plug on that and chop it down to $125 million or something during lean years. This team can't afford lean years and frankly should have the ability to avoid lean years.

[Carlos Danger]

No one is going to pay through the roof for a 120 OPS+ slap hitting first baseman with no speed making $20+ million a year. CJ Cron can be had for free basically any time. What did Juan Soto net this past offseason? Divide that by, like, 10 and that's Guerrero's return potential right now. Who gives a s*** if they trade him June 23, 2024 or July 31, 2025? At least in the latter scenario you have an outside chance of this guy getting his Babe Ruth mojo back and you have someone of value.

 

f***ing former MVP Josh Donaldson got you Jacob Waguespack in a similar down/injury year as Bichette is having. You think the O's are calling up and offering Jackson Holliday for him? Especially with a GM known to be a desperate beta male that accepts returns like Anthony Kay for top trade bait?

 

People are saying that the Jays shouldn't do a rebuild until Atkins is gone which is essentially the same as me saying stand pat yet my post isn't substantive. I guarantee you if Atkins went full on with the rebuild as those with the loser mentality wish, they all would be VERY disappointed with the return. And then have a 60 win team on top of it.

 

The biggest asset this team has right now is payroll flexibility. High payroll, relatively low long term commitments with nothing bad outside of Springer. The last thing we need is for Rogers to pull the plug on that and chop it down to $125 million or something during lean years. This team can't afford lean years and frankly should have the ability to avoid lean years.

 

I said value now vs in 2025. I never said Vlad will get us an elite prospect haul. However, whatever his value is, is higher now, than it will be with one year remaining in FA.

 

JD was injured and in his FA season.

 

Most teams look at a 3 year sample size to determine what they have. We have more than 3 years to see what Vladdy is. Why do you think, hope he will all of a sudden change into something more than he is, has been.

 

Point being, value is higher now, than it will be in 2025. Unless you plan on signing him to an extension. Something as a baseball chat board/internet semi-pro commentator who lives in his mom's basement, would strongly advise against.

Edited June 23, 2024 by Carlos Danger

[L54]

Saying you want to trade Kikuchi, Jansen and Garcia is completely different than saying trade Bo when he’s got an 85 wRC+

 

No reason to hold impending FA. None zilch nada. It would be a Rockies esque move

[Spanky99]

No one is going to pay through the roof for a 120 OPS+ slap hitting first baseman with no speed making $20+ million a year. CJ Cron can be had for free basically any time. What did Juan Soto net this past offseason? Divide that by, like, 10 and that's Guerrero's return potential right now. Who gives a s*** if they trade him June 23, 2024 or July 31, 2025? At least in the latter scenario you have an outside chance of this guy getting his Babe Ruth mojo back and you have someone of value.

 

f***ing former MVP Josh Donaldson got you Jacob Waguespack in a similar down/injury year as Bichette is having. You think the O's are calling up and offering Jackson Holliday for him? Especially with a GM known to be a desperate beta male that accepts returns like Anthony Kay for top trade bait?

 

People are saying that the Jays shouldn't do a rebuild until Atkins is gone which is essentially the same as me saying stand pat yet my post isn't substantive. I guarantee you if Atkins went full on with the rebuild as those with the loser mentality wish, they all would be VERY disappointed with the return. And then have a 60 win team on top of it.

 

The biggest asset this team has right now is payroll flexibility. High payroll, relatively low long term commitments with nothing bad outside of Springer. The last thing we need is for Rogers to pull the plug on that and chop it down to $125 million or something during lean years. This team can't afford lean years and frankly should have the ability to avoid lean years.

 

They can trade impending FA's in a few weeks dude, if they continue to slide it's going to happen.

[glory]

Here comes the loser defeatist mentality again. "If only they tanked harder in 2017, they would have been better in 2021-23".

 

Uhh, no. If this team was better at drafting and player development, it would have been better in 2017 AND 2021.

 

Trading the pending free agents aren't going to bring in a haul big enough to move the needle long term. Bichette is at his lowest possible value and Guerrero has settled in to become an okay player but no one is going to pay much for his skill set. The only true rebuild is if you trade the four main starters and even that is questionable with Gausman not doing great and Berrios' value muted by his contract. Teams that have worse records than the Jays have better trade prospects. Which is a function of what this team has built. A 26 man roster of mediocrity. No one obscenely terrible except Springer and elements of the BP, no one great. 35-41 would have brought that fait to this team. A team performing just poorly enough that none of the guys to be traded in a proposed rebuilt are worth a damn.

 

The only option this team has is to roll with it and hope for the best. Don't be like the Angels last year, but it's also pointless to tear it down. Hope the team gets hot in the latter half of the year like historically it tends to do.

 

*my opinion is in no way shape or form biased by my bets I made a couple of weeks ago

 

Only 6 teams have worse run differentials than the Jays do: White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, A's, Angels, and Rays. That's 5 god awful teams, and a good team that has lost a lot of players due to injury/legal issues (and they'll still finish better than the Jays in all likelihood). Standing pat and hoping the team gets hot down the stretch would be an insane expectation based on what we have seen so far. The fact that they are 7 games back of a playoff spot with about 100 teams to pass makes it even worse.

 

The team has one of the worst farm systems in the league, a tax paying big league roster that stinks, and like 80% of the roster is not controlled beyond 2025 or 2026. The only reason you (and frankly me too) are afraid of a Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, and Billy McKinney trade deadline is because of the guy who would be making the deals. So if your argument is stand pat so that Atkins can't trade Jansen for a 26 year old starter in AA with a 92 MPH fastball, then I could see the logic in that. But sometimes you have to see a team for what it is, and if you're not trading Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc, now, then you're guaranteeing the asset being diminished/wasted by waiting a year. We have seen how this story ends. The spoilers are the 2017-18 seasons.

[Dick_Pole]

different than saying trade Bo when he’s got an 85 wRC+

 

 

Okay then take it up with the guy who is saying the Jays should do such a thing. Because every day that passes erodes value.

 

Saying you want to trade Kikuchi, Jansen and Garcia

 

Well then prepare to get excited over three 26 year old AAAA guys with o0o0o0o0odles of control!!! Because that's exactly what the Jays are going to get with the current dope in charge making those trades. This team needs top end talent not more Espinal-like depth piece jobbers. It already has plenty of that. Yeah, in lieu of getting top end talent, I'd rather go the Rockies way of sinking or swimming with the roster as is than the Blue Jays way of collecting s*** bags then having to watch Max scour the internet for data points that suggest they aren't shitbags and have the board pretend those were good moves.

[Spanky99]

Wow Max, you've been Attacked, lol.

[Dick_Pole]

Only 6 teams have worse run differentials than the Jays do: White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, A's, Angels, and Rays. That's 5 god awful teams, and a good team that has lost a lot of players due to injury/legal issues (and they'll still finish better than the Jays in all likelihood). Standing pat and hoping the team gets hot down the stretch would be an insane expectation based on what we have seen so far. The fact that they are 7 games back of a playoff spot with about 100 teams to pass makes it even worse.

 

The team has one of the worst farm systems in the league, a tax paying big league roster that stinks, and like 80% of the roster is not controlled beyond 2025 or 2026. The only reason you (and frankly me too) are afraid of a Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, and Billy McKinney trade deadline is because of the guy who would be making the deals. So if your argument is stand pat so that Atkins can't trade Jansen for a 26 year old starter in AA with a 92 MPH fastball, then I could see the logic in that. But sometimes you have to see a team for what it is, and if you're not trading Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc, now, then you're guaranteeing the asset being diminished/wasted by waiting a year. We have seen how this story ends. The spoilers are the 2017-18 seasons.

 

You get my viewpoint. Except for the fact that you're going back to this default of "diminished value" as justification to make moves just for making moves' sake. If Jansen nets you one 26 year old 92 MPH fastball pitcher, netting two for Guerrero or three for Gausman is going to help absolutely nothing. But it will turn the MLB team into a laughingstock, crater the near term revenue potential and entice Rogers to cut bait and reduce payroll. Like I said, the biggest asset this team has is payroll flexibility. The second biggest asset is the ability to fire Atkins and clean house. Try to bury your PTSD over the Donaldson trade for a moment and realize that there are bigger things to worry about than "maximizing the value of every player".

 

If the Jays maintain their payroll, some smart flexing of that cash can see the Jays follow a Phillies-like trajectory instead of a White Sox one.

[connorp]

Just looking and 2015-2019 Top 10 draft pics there’s a lot of busts and meh players. No franchise players. Definitely not something anyone was missing. Well, unintentionally, the only * would be Royce Lewis. Let’s see if he can stay healthy.

 

2019 was a good Top 10. More recently it’s premature to judge

[Spanky99]

You get my viewpoint. Except for the fact that you're going back to this default of "diminished value" as justification to make moves just for making moves' sake. If Jansen nets you one 26 year old 92 MPH fastball pitcher, netting two for Guerrero or three for Gausman is going to help absolutely nothing. But it will turn the MLB team into a laughingstock, crater the near term revenue potential and entice Rogers to cut bait and reduce payroll. Like I said, the biggest asset this team has is payroll flexibility. The second biggest asset is the ability to fire Atkins and clean house. Try to bury your PTSD over the Donaldson trade for a moment and realize that there are bigger things to worry about than "maximizing the value of every player".

 

If the Jays maintain their payroll, some smart flexing of that cash can see the Jays follow a Phillies-like trajectory instead of a White Sox one.

 

FWIW... I don't think the Jays move either of Vlad and Bo at this deadline.

[Olerud363]

If the player in question would net you Jacob Waguespack or less in a deal, then yes, standing pat and hoping for the best is a perfectly viable choice.

 

The player could also net Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanarcian, or Stantiago Espinal, or Eric Hinske.

 

This group is done. Collect a bunch of new players. Anybody from 18 year old lottery tickets to 25 year olds who need a fresh start. Core pieces of good teams are acquired with deadline deals.

 

Also loser mentality is winning 71 games for no reason. The loser tries hard, so hard, and loses anyway. The winner knows when to take a step back for longer term gain.

[Olerud363]

The player could also net Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanarcian, or Stantiago Espinal, or Eric Hinske.

 

Yes Erik Hinske or Santiago Espinal. Both have been helpful pieces of playoff teams. So ...no... Deadline trade of Jansen probably won't get the next Mike Trout, but get some hopefully useful pieces for next run. And winning 67 instead of 73 has some advantages. Winning 67 instead of 85 is probably not good, if the 85 is an option, but probably isn't this year.

[connorp]

Going to play the miss game of 1st and Comp round. Behind the Jays pick any franchise changers a reasonable distance where you’d assume they were in contention.

 

2015- Jays #29 Jon Harris (don’t remember him)…not much after, only Austin Riley #41

2106- #21 Zuech- not much after him but behind their next pick #57 JB Woodman was Pete Alonso. They did pick Bo next

2017- Jays whiff three times, only providing some prospect porn with pics #22/28/29- Wormoth/Pearson/Siese (who again)

The year seemed to a bunch of s*** early though

2018- #12 Groshans right after Grayson. Losing a couple would’ve been good. Logan Gilbert went 2 picks later, Casas/McClanahan later in the round if you think they’re a miss but not much otherwise

2019- #11 Manoah. Couple picks later Corbin Carrol

2020- #5 Martin. Interesting players behind that but at this point it’s premature to judge

 

So many mlb misses though. Outside of the Top 5 it’s just such a crap shoot to tank. Even Top 5, there’s a lot of misses. Trading for minor league guys is good for rebuilding obviously, but draft position matters a lot less

[L54]

Okay then take it up with the guy who is saying the Jays should do such a thing. Because every day that passes erodes value.

 

 

 

Well then prepare to get excited over three 26 year old AAAA guys with o0o0o0o0odles of control!!! Because that's exactly what the Jays are going to get with the current dope in charge making those trades. This team needs top end talent not more Espinal-like depth piece jobbers. It already has plenty of that. Yeah, in lieu of getting top end talent, I'd rather go the Rockies way of sinking or swimming with the roster as is than the Blue Jays way of collecting s*** bags then having to watch Max scour the internet for data points that suggest they aren't shitbags and have the board pretend those were good moves.

 

But your point makes zero sense, unless you want to protect the fraction of percent chance your blue jay investments have to cash

 

10 games back at the deadline and holding Kikuchi would be mind numbing incompetence

[connorp]

Geez. Just looking at their Top pick going back 20 years. The most successful I guess is RP Jeff Hoffman (my neck of woods in HS).

 

Next I guess you go to Ricky Romero and his couple of successful mlb years. Dumpster fire other than that mostly

[connorp]

But your point makes zero sense, unless you want to protect the fraction of percent chance your blue jay investments have to cash

 

10 games back at the deadline and holding Kikuchi would be mind numbing incompetence

 

Well, don’t be like the guys that don’t understand there’s two parts to the business. You’re trying to do the best with your baseball roster, while juggling the business side of things.

 

Something that may be an objective win on the former, could hurt you in the latter.

So, I can see DP’s point.