The Ship is Sinking

[wilko]

Thank f*** we have the positivity thread. This place stinks!

[leaffie]

why the f*** does everyone always say this? is there any evidence for it?

 

dude worked in CLEVELAND for like 24 years, and he's 57 years old now. if he had commissioner's office ambitions you'd think he would have lateraled to a New York team like 20 years ago

 

He has been asked that question numerous times and he never denies it, just waltzes around the question.

[AMS528]

Jays FO built a solid and deep team around a rotten core.

 

Two years ago nobody thought we'd be imploding because the core would fail this badly, but everybody wants to act like they had it all figured out ages ago lol

 

If the Atkins has to take the fall for that, so be it.

 

Just don't hire somebody worse.

 

What players are you considering as the "core" they built around? For me it's really just two guys in Vlad and Bo. If Springer is part of it because that was their big signing to start our new contention window, then that's certainly a strike on them, not for the signing itself but to expect him to maintain his level in the back half of the deal, given he's 34 and at the age where players really start to decline.

 

There were 7 qualified batters last year who were 34 or above. Exactly one of those guys (Paul Goldschmidt) managed above 2 WAR. If you drop it to 300PAs, you get 26 guys and add JD Martinez and Belt to the list who managed above 2 WAR. Basically we're talking about the 90% outcome for 34 and above. The expectation for Springer is to get like 1.5 to 2 WAR in a decent scenario. I think that had to be something people knew was coming.

 

I think when you look at it, there just wasn't really much of a core to this team. Not compared to the types of teams that Atlanta and Houston built and Baltimore has started to build.

 

Depth is great but you've gotta have more than a limited core to build it around, and some of those pieces should also be prospects you develop and that hasn't happened. If the core was a couple more reliable guys, then maybe you can take Vladdy not turning out.

 

I think a strike on them is that there should be core pieces now performing that would be coming to replace the cheap production that we should have gotten from Vlad (and Bo who has generally otherwise performed). They're not there. Maybe Schneider is one of those pieces, but we're not rolling in top prospects here.

[Olerud363]

I think a strike on them is that there should be core pieces now performing that would be coming to replace the cheap production that we should have gotten from Vlad (and Bo who has generally otherwise performed). They're not there. Maybe Schneider is one of those pieces, but we're not rolling in top prospects here.

 

The series of transactions that gets me is that in July 2019 they had Stroman, the 5th pick in the draft and 120 million to spend on a free agent contract and they turned it into Berrios, who has been up and down a bit, an innings eater, not bad at times, but honestly should have done better than Berrios for Stroman and the 5th pick and 120 million.

[Eat My Shatkins]

All I'm saying is not as simple as the simpletons clamoring for Atkins/Shapiros heads want to believe. That's what every idiot fan whines for when their favorite sports team goes south. Sometime it is deserved.

 

The #1 reason this team has gone off the rails is because Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Manoah and also Springer have completely s*** the bed. This is a group of players I'm sure 99% of the fans here were just fine building around two years ago, and that's what Atkins did. And he did a good job of it because they still won 89 games last year despite not getting anything near projections from that group of players.

 

So the question is why have these players s*** the bed? Is it Atkins fault? Shapiros?

 

I get that ultimately the responsibility falls on them, but maybe they kinda/sorta saw this coming a little bit? I mean, last I looked they didn't go and hand out any mega deals back when these players looked like gold. Or maybe they just got lucky avoiding that trap...

 

If they need to go then they need to go, but not because of the lynch mob. You have to weigh the good against the bad and find the root of the problem or you might just make things worse.

[Brownie19]

What players are you considering as the "core" they built around? For me it's really just two guys in Vlad and Bo.

 

As of the end of the 2020 season, the core was:

 

- Vlad (generational type hitter - Pujols and Miggy potential)

- Bo (all-star SS)

- Biggio (4 WAR combined in his first 159 MLB games - versatile defensively, great eye)

- Teo (brokeout in 2020 and we still had 3 more years of control)

- LGJ (125 and 134 wRC+ seasons in 2019/2020 and was signed to a VERY team friendly deal)

- Jansen (hadn't broken out yet, but held his own behind the disk and was a very good hitter in the minors, so you expected the offense was coming)

- Kirk (arrived in 2020 after tearing up the minors like very few have)

- Pearson (Top 10 prospect in baseball - top of the rotation potential)

- Romano (Canadian who was emerging as a force at the back end of the pen)

- Merryweather (0.5 WAR in just 13 innings in 2020 - looked electric)

- Manoah (11th overall pick in the 2019 draft - fast tracked to the majors)

- Austin Martin (5th overall draft pick in 2020 - was projected to go 1st overall and move quickly through the minors)

 

Then we had SWR, Kay, Groshans, Orelvis, Moreno and Hatch as all 45+ prospects.

 

All these guys were like 27 or younger. It was a legit core.

 

We added Ryu and Springer to supplement the core - not to form "part" of the core. We knew Springer wouldn't be great in 2024-2026, but it was reasonable to expect a couple of 4-6 WAR seasons in 2021-2023.

 

That's it - that's what they built and it literally all became a flaming pile of s*** in the matter of 3 years.

Edited May 9, 2024 by Brownie19

[Brownie19]

The series of transactions that gets me is that in July 2019 they had Stroman, the 5th pick in the draft and 120 million to spend on a free agent contract and they turned it into Berrios, who has been up and down a bit, an innings eater, not bad at times, but honestly should have done better than Berrios for Stroman and the 5th pick and 120 million.

 

Your timelines are a bit off. I believe the move was to trade Stro for SWR and Kay in 2019 and then use the money they would have paid Stro to sign Ryu in 2020. It looked glorious in 2020. Ryu was a stud and Stro didn't play baseball. Just think, if Pearson actually develops into a legit starting pitcher, perhaps they don't pivot and trade for Berrios in 2021...

 

I never did like trading that haul for Berrios and then paying him FA money (even if those players traded suck), but 2021 was the f***ing year. We looked like a GREAT team, so I supported moves to "go for it". We went so hard after Berrios that we didn't have a lot left to shore up the bullpen and Brad Hand f***ed us over in 8 innings.

[Nexii]

People fixate on the offense, but even if we were 1st in hitting we'd be at .500. Look at the records of all the other teams giving up 5 runs/game

 

I wish someone with FanGraphs knowledge could break it down where the pitching has failed

[Eat My Shatkins]

People fixate on the offense, but even if we were 1st in hitting we'd be at .500. Look at the records of all the other teams giving up 5 runs/game

 

I wish someone with FanGraphs knowledge could break it down where the pitching has failed

 

Gausman missed ST and is just getting up to speed

5 high leverage relievers that were studs last year have either spent time on the IL or lost effectiveness (Romano, Swanson, Mayza, Green, Garcia)

[BigCecil]

I wish someone with FanGraphs knowledge could break it down where the pitching has failed

 

Yumi good but hurt

Kooch very good

Berrios good but lucky. xERA 4.87

Gausman coming back looking better. FIP down to 3.65

Hound - Meh - Work in progress

 

The rest suck

 

Does that help?

[polar bear]

It just doesn't make sense for Rogers to be a $230M+ payroll team for that level of excitement when they can reasonably accomplish the same thing by spending like, $150M annually.

 

Maybe even less than $150m.Jays have become unwatchable

[Terminator]

Jays FO built a solid and deep team around a rotten core.

 

Two years ago nobody thought we'd be imploding because the core would fail this badly, but everybody wants to act like they had it all figured out ages ago lol

 

If the Atkins has to take the fall for that, so be it.

 

Just don't hire somebody worse.

 

Don't even bother getting into it with these clowns. The haters and losers are going to label you a simp because they have to.

 

99% of this board had concerns about the onfield performance team as well as the drafting and development entering the year. The Jays are off to a brutal start in this regard and if it carries on we all agree that Atkins should go.

 

But in a lot of ways the "simps" more correctly identified Atkins' problems then the haters and losers did bc 90% of their bitching revolved around trades (Varsho), signings (IKF, Turner, etc.) or not reading the FA market correctly (so they could re-sign Matt Chapman) when Atkins has actually done a pretty good job in that regard.

 

So even though they've basically been wrong about most of the stuff they've been bitching about, they feel vindicated about their blanket negativity because the results have been poor.

 

But that's not enough because the "pro-Atkins" side (which doesn't even exist) can tell you exactly why the results have been poor so they have to lie and label you a simp. That way you are wrong and they and their misguided negativity are right.

 

MetaFour pointed all this out in his brilliant takedown a a little while ago. https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11721-GDT-1-3-Toronto-Blue-Jays-San-Diego-Padres-(9-40pm-et)?p=1788922#post1788922

[Eat My Shatkins]

Don't even bother getting into it with these clowns. The haters and losers are going to label you a simp because they have to.

 

99% of this board had concerns about the onfield performance team as well as the drafting and development entering the year. The Jays are off to a brutal start in this regard and if it carries on we all agree that Atkins should go.

 

But in a lot of ways the "simps" more correctly identified Atkins' problems then the haters and losers did bc 90% of their bitching revolved around trades (Varsho), signings (IKF, Turner, etc.) or not reading the FA market correctly (so they could re-sign Matt Chapman) when Atkins has actually done a pretty good job in that regard.

 

So even though they've basically been wrong about most of the stuff they've been bitching about, they feel vindicated about their blanket negativity because the results have been poor.

 

But that's not enough because the "pro-Atkins" side (which doesn't even exist) can tell you exactly why the results have been poor so they have to lie and label you a simp. That way you are wrong and they and their misguided negativity are right.

 

MetaFour pointed all this out in his brilliant takedown a a little while ago. https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11721-GDT-1-3-Toronto-Blue-Jays-San-Diego-Padres-(9-40pm-et)?p=1788922#post1788922

 

 

My favorite part is when they cry "they did nothing to address the hitting"

 

I always respond "you mean other than try to bring in the only two elite bats that were available, including throwing a meager $700 million at Ohtani? There was no one else out there"

 

Then you get the "they should have signed *same handful of players*"

 

Meanwhile at least half of those *handful of players* suck balls right now and wouldn't have helped at all but would have cost more money and term.

 

So now as the season wears on that *handful of players* they like to bring up keeps getting smaller and smaller as they use hind sight to see which of them are actually hitting this year.

[BCZ]

Guerrero could hit 40+ HR every year if he just fixed his swing... on pace for ~16-20 HR... what a waste

[jaysblue]

your timelines are a bit off. I believe the move was to trade stro for swr and kay in 2019 and then use the money they would have paid stro to sign ryu in 2020. It looked glorious in 2020. Ryu was a stud and stro didn't play baseball. Just think, if pearson actually develops into a legit starting pitcher, perhaps they don't pivot and trade for berrios in 2021...

 

I never did like trading that haul for berrios and then paying him fa money (even if those players traded suck), but 2021 was the f***ing year. We looked like a great team, so i supported moves to "go for it". we went so hard after berrios that we didn't have a lot left to shore up the bullpen and brad hand f***ed us over in 8 innings.

 

lol

 

Excuses!

[jaysblue]

Watching Eat My Shatkins trying to defend Atkins and this front office is hilarious! He is definitely getting paid haha.

[Laika]

It's not a "defense of Atkins" - it's a defense of reason!

[Eat My Shatkins]

Watching Eat My Shatkins trying to defend Atkins and this front office is hilarious! He is definitely getting paid haha.

 

I'm not defending Atkins you f***wit

 

I'm saying make sure they are the problem before you send them packing

[Olerud363]

Your timelines are a bit off. I believe the move was to trade Stro for SWR and Kay in 2019 and then use the money they would have paid Stro to sign Ryu in 2020. It looked glorious in 2020. Ryu was a stud and Stro didn't play baseball. Just think, if Pearson actually develops into a legit starting pitcher, perhaps they don't pivot and trade for Berrios in 2021...

 

I never did like trading that haul for Berrios and then paying him FA money (even if those players traded suck), but 2021 was the f***ing year. We looked like a GREAT team, so I supported moves to "go for it". We went so hard after Berrios that we didn't have a lot left to shore up the bullpen and Brad Hand f***ed us over in 8 innings.

 

 

I realize Berrios wasn't signed until 2021 but what I mean is standing there in July 2019 you had

 

Stroman to trade

The 5th round pick

120 million for a contract offseason 2021/2022

 

Stroman was traded for Kay and SWR, the 5th round pick was Martin, Martin and SWR was Berrios, and the 120 million tagged for offseason 2021/2022 also went to Berrios.

 

So you had those 3 things and that turned into Berrios

[jaysblue]

It's not a "defense of Atkins" - it's a defense of reason!

 

You definitely are a voice of reason. Two weeks ago you said this bullpen was so elite and the Jays were clutch team that knew how to win lol. Then this week you come out saying the exact opposite lol.

[L54]

Eat My Shatkins is a play on words for Tongue Shatkins Fart Box

[Olerud363]

The core was as of 2020:

 

- Vlad (generational type hitter - Pujols and Miggy potential)

- Bo (all-star SS)

- Biggio (4 WAR combined in his first 159 MLB games - versatile defensively, great eye)

- Teo (brokeout in 2020 and we still had 3 more years of control)

- LGJ (125 and 134 wRC+ seasons in 2019/2020 and was signed to a VERY team friendly deal)

- Jansen (hadn't broken out yet, but held his own behind the disk and was a very good hitter in the minors, so you expected the offense was coming)

- Kirk (arrived in 2020 after tearing up the minors like very few have)

- Pearson (Top 10 prospect in baseball - top of the rotation potential)

- Romano (Canadian who was emerging as a force at the back end of the pen)

- Merryweather (0.5 WAR in just 13 innings in 2020 - looked electric)

- Manoah (11th overall pick in the 2019 draft - fast tracked to the majors)

- Austin Martin (5th overall draft pick in 2020 - was projected to go 1st overall and move quickly through the minors)

 

Then we had SWR, Kay, Groshans, Orelvis, Moreno and Hatch as all 45+ prospects.

 

We added Ryu and Springer to supplement the core - not to form "part" of the core. We knew Springer wouldn't be great in 2024-2026, but it was reasonable to expect a couple of 4-6 WAR seasons in 2021-2023.

 

That's it - that's what they built and it literally all became a flaming pile of s*** in the matter of 3 years.

 

Man. So brutal. The Vlad/Bo collapse dominates but Summer of 2021 it looked so good...

 

Moreno - hitting .388 .430 .620 and looked to be another generational hitter

Austin - thought of as having first overall talent and had .420 on base percentage

Manoah - dominating his first 10 starts in the majors

Orelvis - hitting great as a teenager... like .290 with power for a while

Teo - looking like Edwin with a tad fewer walks. Hitting near .300 with massive power

Guerrero - contending for triple crown at 22

 

I'm repeating was said kind of, but these guys looked so good up through late July 2021... and still great until mid April 2022. Then every player went negative within 1 year

 

Guerrero - not a triple crown guy, but a 1 WAR guy

Teoscar - not a .300 hitter but .250 which is big difference with his walk rate

Kirk - not edgar martinez but more like John McDonald or something

Bo - Never able to control the strike zone so is less than useless in a slump

[Laika]

You definitely are a voice of reason. Two weeks ago you said this bullpen was so elite and the Jays were clutch team that knew how to win lol. Then this week you come out saying the exact opposite lol.

 

The bullpen collapsed almost over night! We all saw it happen!

[Brownie19]

I realize Berrios wasn't signed until 2021 but what I mean is standing there in July 2019 you had

 

Stroman to trade

The 5th round pick

120 million for a contract offseason 2021/2022

 

Stroman was traded for Kay and SWR, the 5th round pick was Martin, Martin and SWR was Berrios, and the 120 million tagged for offseason 2021/2022 also went to Berrios.

 

So you had those 3 things and that turned into Berrios

 

I guess. I guess add Ryu to the equation then too? I showed me logic. I think they pivoted to Berrios to "go for it" in 2021 and to get us up for more success in 2022-2026. I never liked we had to give up prospects to get him (and then pay him), but we did. It's crazy to think if we get a couple bounces late in 2021 and get into the playoffs, there's a good chance we win a couple of rounds and Atkins get a key to the city. Didn't materialize though.

[Stangstag]

I guess. I guess add Ryu to the equation then too? I showed me logic. I think they pivoted to Berrios to "go for it" in 2021 and to get us up for more success in 2022-2026. I never liked we had to give up prospects to get him (and then pay him), but we did. It's crazy to think if we get a couple bounces late in 2021 and get into the playoffs, there's a good chance we win a couple of rounds and Atkins get a key to the city. Didn't materialize though.

 

Watching those Yankees/Rays and Redsox/Nationals games in the final hour of the season and praying for a loss was rough. That f***ing Redsox comeback. The Jays dominated Baltimore over that final series at home. They looked primed and ready for the postseason.

 

Ughh

[Brownie19]

Watching those Yankees/Rays and Redsox/Nationals games in the final hour of the season and praying for a loss was rough. That f***ing Redsox comeback. The Jays dominated Baltimore over that final series at home. They looked primed and ready for the postseason.

 

Ughh

 

Yep - that's baseball for you.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Eat My Shatkins is a play on words for Tongue Shatkins Fart Box

 

Cute.

 

And L54 = your Level of IQ I assume...

 

40 to 54: Moderate mental disability. 55 to 69: Mild mental disability. 70 to 84: Borderline mental disability. 85 to 114: Average intelligence

 

I might have to break out Spankys handyman picture every time you post because your reading comprehension is about as good as this Jays team right now

[Stangstag]

Yep - that's baseball for you.

 

On the other hand, Orioles looked elite last year winning 100+ games and got spanked in their first postseason series

 

Beesbol

[L54]

Cute.

 

And L54 = your Level of IQ I assume...

 

40 to 54: Moderate mental disability. 55 to 69: Mild mental disability. 70 to 84: Borderline mental disability. 85 to 114: Average intelligence

 

I might have to break out Spankys handyman picture every time you post because your reading comprehension is about as good as this Jays team right now

 

Good one

[Eat My Shatkins]

On the other hand, Orioles looked elite last year winning 100+ games and got spanked in their first postseason series

 

Beesbol

 

There were three 100+ win teams last year and one 99 win team.

 

Those four teams combined for one playoff win.

 

Meanwhile an 84 win team came one win from winning the whole thing

 

Beisbol is right