The Ship is Sinking

[5ToolPhenom]

It was obvious at the beginning of the season that the Jays wouldn't be able to keep pace with the O's and Yanks. It seems like this front office is always constructing rosters that are designed to sneak into a WC spot instead of being series World Series contenders. I get that anything can happen in the playoffs, but looking at this roster at the start of the season, it was clear that all of the best case scenarios would have to align for them to even have a chance. That's not a very sensible way to start a season when the window of opportunity for the roster is closing.

 

Frankly, I've always thought that Shapiro and Atkins have been wayyy overrated around these parts. I get that there's an inherent enthusiasm and rose colored glasses effect in any fan-base but I've never thought the hype was justified. I assumed Shatkins would have gotten the boot after the team failed to win a single game in the playoffs yet again, but I assumed maybe they were given one more chance to go all in. And then they failed to make any notable improvements going into 2024. I think it's time to move on from these guys.

[Eat My Shatkins]

f*** me I can't believe how simple some fans can be.

 

Shapiro, Atkins, Shapiro, Atkins blah blah blah

 

It doesn't really matter who the f*** is running things when your mid twenties core all s*** the bed at the same time.

 

I mean yeah, f*** Shapiro and f*** Atkins for not predicting something that nobody on the f***ing planet would have predicted either lol

[Laika]

f*** me I can't believe how simple some fans can be.

 

Shapiro, Atkins, Shapiro, Atkins blah blah blah

 

It doesn't really matter who the f*** is running things when your mid twenties core all s*** the bed at the same time.

 

I mean yeah, f*** Shapiro and f*** Atkins for not predicting something that nobody on the f***ing planet would have predicted either lol

 

Ultimately they are responsible. Really hard to say how much they could have helped, perhaps nobody could have saved Vlad, but there should be complex and modern high performance, development, fitness, game preparation systems in place so when you sit and watch players like Springer, Bo, Vlad, and Kirk all erode physically while displaying horrible approaches and game plans at the plate... it's hard to just say it's all bad luck.

 

There is also the mental scouting side of things. If Kirk and Vlad are uncoachable weirdos, for some reason, it's on the executives to determine that and act accordingly.

[Olerud363]

I wonder what the numbers are on that. How many games do the Jays need to win to ensure there are enough casuals in the stands, spending money to keep the Owner happy. There are thousands of people who just come to games for the atmosphere - who don't give a s*** about baseball, but will spend lots of money as long as it's a happy place to be. What's that number - 80 wins? I do think if we keep the payroll sky high, we can probably hover around 80 wins moving forward - but, without any home grown stud players, it's going to be tough make the playoffs and do any damage in them and the real fans are probably going to get frustrated as s*** with the team.

 

The expanded playoffs probably changes the thought process and the magic number - as I suspect their goal is to have a team that's still in contention for the playoffs in September.

 

I think that's probably the approach they'll take. Load up on the lipstick and keep decorating that pig.

 

However, there's a formula out there where you accept you're a 70 win team for 3-4 years, but if you slash payroll down to $100M, you ultimately make the same profit. I suspect Rogers have watched fans leave, and then return like little puppy dogs as soon as there's a new winner in Town. It's not like fans leave and then never return. They chase winners in TO.

 

Historical lows and highs in attendance in Skydome/Rogers Center era

 

1993 - 4 million 95 wins - like 3rd straight 4 million year.

 

2000 - 1.7 million after 88, 84 and 83 win seasons. This was the 7th or 8th year of decline after the World Series years. Having a 85 win team instead of 75 wins didn't reverse the decline. Oddly enough they contended almost the entire year and were 1 game or so out of a play spot in parts of September but faded last 3 weeks.

 

2002 - 1.6 million 78 win team. For some reason attendance rebounded in 2001 (first year Rogers ownership maybe gave some hope) with an 80 win team, but hit a new low in 2002.

 

2010 - 1.5 million 85 win team. Attendance improved from 2002 to 2008 or so with 85 win teams but with some big signings. 2010 was post Halladay trade so that gave a bad vibe I guess.

 

2013 - 2.4 million 74 wins - Attendance improved from 2010 to 2013 without winning improving... in fact they lost more games each year, but I guess people like hope? (Track team + Marlins pitchers + RA)

 

2016 - 3.4 million 89 win team - OK. This is a high not a low, but attendance improved from 2010 to 2016. Obviously 2015 was a big factor, but attendance was improving anyway before that.,

 

2019 - 1.9 million - They dropped real quick after falling from contention.

 

2023 - 3.2 million - 89 wins back up real quick to after contending again (pandemic screwed other year up).

 

So I guess Toronto fans kind of like hope and winning.

 

85 wins is sometimes like a 1.5 million attendance year.

75 wins can be a 2.5 million attendance year if there is big signings or trades.

90 wins a couple of years in a row and contending is 3 million +

 

Have not had real bad years. lol. If you plotted all this end extrapolated to 55 wins, you'd probably have 725,121 attendance.

 

So one hard truth is this: Toronto market is so fickle they might draw below 700 thousand for a terrible run while even Baltimore gets 1.5 million for their 48 win team.

[BigCecil]

Ultimately they are responsible. Really hard to say how much they could have helped, perhaps nobody could have saved Vlad, but there should be complex and modern high performance, development, fitness, game preparation systems in place so when you sit and watch players like Springer, Bo, Vlad, and Kirk all erode physically while displaying horrible approaches and game plans at the plate... it's hard to just say it's all bad luck.

 

There is also the mental scouting side of things. If Kirk and Vlad are uncoachable weirdos, for some reason, it's on the executives to determine that and act accordingly.

 

Exactly. We mused about how in the worse case scenario we could become the White Sox with all that young talent in MLB and all the expectations. They failed.

 

I don't think we are there, but glossing over the situation or blaming employees does not help. We aren't the only team to have players not pan out or get hurt, suspended or whatever.

 

The FO is paid well to deal with variables, which occur in the baseball business and any other, and when the sample size is 8/9 years that is material.

[Olerud363]

f*** me I can't believe how simple some fans can be.

 

Shapiro, Atkins, Shapiro, Atkins blah blah blah

 

It doesn't really matter who the f*** is running things when your mid twenties core all s*** the bed at the same time.

 

I mean yeah, f*** Shapiro and f*** Atkins for not predicting something that nobody on the f***ing planet would have predicted either lol

 

People were predicting that Vlad could bust since 2020 when the 'Send Vlad to Indy ball thread started'. 2021 obviously puts those concerns to rest for a few months, but by mid 2022 lots of posters here were expressing concerns. So nobody predicted this? Not this bad but people saw warning sings.

 

Anyway their job is not to predict but to prevent.

[L54]

f*** me I can't believe how simple some fans can be.

 

Shapiro, Atkins, Shapiro, Atkins blah blah blah

 

It doesn't really matter who the f*** is running things when your mid twenties core all s*** the bed at the same time.

 

I mean yeah, f*** Shapiro and f*** Atkins for not predicting something that nobody on the f***ing planet would have predicted either lol

 

Man stop simping for Atkins

 

Wahhhh our mid twenties core is collectively worth 0 WAR. WHAT WAS ROSS SUPPOSED TO DO???

[Olerud363]

People say 'f*** Joe Biden' or 'f*** Trump' or 'f*** Trudeau' all the time. Not being political just trying to establish that 'f*** Shapiro' is not over the top, just as 'f*** Trump', 'f*** Biden', 'f*** Trudeau' is not over the top.

 

Baseball is complicated stuff, running an economy and a society is complicated stuff, the expectation is that Shapiro, Trump, Biden, and Trudeau have resources, data access, and a thoughtfulness that exceeds that of the common man including your Blue Jays Message Board posters, and if we get the impression they are not doing a good job, then f*** them.

[L54]

People say 'f*** Joe Biden' or 'f*** Trump' or 'f*** Trudeau' all the time. Not being political just trying to establish that 'f*** Shapiro' is not over the top, just as 'f*** Trump', 'f*** Biden', 'f*** Trudeau' is not over the top.

 

Baseball is complicated stuff, running an economy and a society is complicated stuff, the expectation is that Shapiro, Trump, Biden, and Trudeau have resources, data access, and a thoughtfulness that exceeds that of the common man including your Blue Jays Message Board posters, and if we get the impression they are not doing a good job, then f*** them.

 

Amen

[glory]

Yes and no. He sort of just flubbed those Happ and Stroman trades. The timing wasn't wrong, Toronto had the top or one of the top SP on the block at two consecutive deadlines... the returns were wrong though. I suppose you could say the returns were wrong because Atkins may have gotten tunnel vision on getting mostly "MLB ready" players back?

 

I agree they they will do a half-assed deadline and reload for 2025. They'll probably just submit to their fate with Vlad and pay him $23M for who the f*** knows what. They will go into 2025 hoping:

 

- Vlad figures something out

- Bassitt can have an ERA under 5

- Gausman gets his stuff back

- They can replace Kikuchi

- Half of their relievers can get their stuff back

- Kirk figures it out offensively

- They can replace Jansen and find a 50% catcher

- Springer has a dead cat bounce

 

There will be a lot of wishing and hoping

 

Yeah that’s what I expect. Impending FAs will be moved and anyone controlled through 2025 will be kept. Then they’ll sell for real next summer if 2025 goes south (they’ll have no choice at that point). In that scenario, they better hope that Atkins gets massive hauls for Kikuchi, Jimi, Jansen, Turner, etc. If they want to delay the inevitable then they’ll have to hit on whatever selling they can do. Though selling or not, I hope they work something out with Jansen. Not expecting it but he’s a legit top catcher when he’s on the field and his injury history might make him reasonably priced even coming off a great season. Or maybe the thought of Kirk playing everyday is just that terrifying.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Man stop simping for Atkins

 

Wahhhh our mid twenties core is collectively worth 0 WAR. WHAT WAS ROSS SUPPOSED TO DO???

 

I'm not simping for anyone you f***tard, they can fire the whole lot I don't really give a s***. It's just funny to read all you know it alls calling for people heads like you had a f***ing clue in 2021 or 2022 we'd get zero WAR a month into the 2024 season from Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Manoah and Pearson and also have 5 high leverage relievers all die at atvyhe same time too.

[Olerud363]

I'm not simping for anyone you f***tard, they can fire the whole lot I don't really give a s***. It's just funny to read all you know it alls calling for people heads like you had a f***ing clue in 2021 or 2022 we'd get zero WAR a month into the 2024 season from Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Manoah and Pearson and also have 5 high leverage relievers all die at atvyhe same time too.

 

 

I think the calling for people's heads is because of articles like this one https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/big-read-inside-toronto-blue-jays-high-performance-department/

 

The article is from 2017. It says "That’s thanks to the Blue Jays’ high performance department, an interdisciplinary collection of specialists covering everything from strength and conditioning to psychology. It’s an all-encompassing collective the Blue Jays hope will provide each and every player in the organization, from the teenager at the bottom of the minors to the $20-million asset playing every day on the big-league roster, the tools and resources they need to be at their best."

 

Can we agree this program has been a complete failure - let's count the failures by year

 

2017 - Could not keep Bautista from an early decline, could not keep Sanchez coming off of an ERA title healthy. Tulo played hardly at all. (among other failures)

2018 - Could not keep Donaldson/Tulo healthy (combined 20 games) and Donaldson's trade value tanked

2019 - Could not get Vlad Guerrero Jr. off to that great of a start

2020 - VJG shows up at 380 pounds,

2021 - some positives of course, but could not keep Kirby Yates healthy, Springer while playing his best as a Blue Jay missed 80 games

2022 - The VJG decline starts,

2023 - The Manoah collapse, Kirk loses all power

2024 - The singularity. 5 or so formerly good young players collapse to 0 WAR at age 25.

 

Bad stuff happens to all teams, but what evidence in minors or majors is there that the so-called 'high performance team' led to anything but low performance and injuries?

 

Shouldn't the people who made these claims in 2017 be fired ?

 

What would happen to you at your job at Burger King if you introduced the high performance Whopper program that would lead to better taste and less e-coli but in fact more Whopper's had e-coli? Even if was a weird random new strain of e-coli that no one could have predicted you still likely get fired.

[Olerud363]

March 2017 Shapiro makes special announcement

 

"I am Shaprio. I have nice suit., But that is not all. I now present to you the Blue Jays’ high performance department, an interdisciplinary collection of specialists covering everything from strength and conditioning to psychology. It’s an all-encompassing collective the Blue Jays hope will provide each and every player in the organization, from the teenager at the bottom of the minors to the $20-million asset playing every day on the big-league roster, the tools and resources they need to be at their best."

 

2017/18 20 million dollar a year assets playing everday (Bautista/Tulo/Donaldson) collapse to zero value

 

Those who were teenagers in 2017 have their moments but collapse to zero value in 2024, when they should be at their prime.

 

How can we not fire Shaprio? Like right now. For that 'High performance' ******** article from 2017 alone.

[L54]

I'm not simping for anyone you f***tard, they can fire the whole lot I don't really give a s***. It's just funny to read all you know it alls calling for people heads like you had a f***ing clue in 2021 or 2022 we'd get zero WAR a month into the 2024 season from Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Manoah and Pearson and also have 5 high leverage relievers all die at atvyhe same time too.

 

No you are simping, and hard. Have been for months.

[Eat My Shatkins]

No you are simping, and hard. Have been for months.

 

lmao K.......

[Eat My Shatkins]

Jays FO built a solid and deep team around a rotten core.

 

Two years ago nobody thought we'd be imploding because the core would fail this badly, but everybody wants to act like they had it all figured out ages ago lol

 

If the Atkins has to take the fall for that, so be it.

 

Just don't hire somebody worse.

[L54]

Jays FO built a solid and deep team around a rotten core.

 

Two years ago nobody thought we'd be imploding because the core would fail this badly, but everybody wants to act like they had it all figured out ages ago lol

 

If the Atkins has to take the fall for that, so be it.

 

Just don't hire somebody worse.

 

Who else? The janitor at the Rogers Centre? The head groundskeeper at the Player Development Complex?

[Omar]

f*** me I can't believe how simple some fans can be.

 

Shapiro, Atkins, Shapiro, Atkins blah blah blah

 

It doesn't really matter who the f*** is running things when your mid twenties core all s*** the bed at the same time.

 

I mean yeah, f*** Shapiro and f*** Atkins for not predicting something that nobody on the f***ing planet would have predicted either lol

 

Yeah, you're right about not being able to predict things. But it's more than that. It's about development, it's about spending 230 plus million and having very little to show for it, it's about not having a backup plan, it's about accountability,. Anything less is a cop out.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Who else? The janitor at the Rogers Centre? The head groundskeeper at the Player Development Complex?

 

The fat useless core players who had the shelf life of a tomato, that's who. They're the ones that appear to have failed more than anyone else.

[Stangstag]

The fat useless core players who had the shelf life of a tomato, that's who. They're the ones that appear to have failed more than anyone else.

 

Then maybe the front office shouldn’t have relied so much on guys that were out of shape for their entire minor league careers?

 

If you think that the overweight thing is the main issue.

 

I feel more like the main issue is the coaching and development at the higher levels. Its quite possible that the major league coaching staff is dogwater. Or maybe its the inability of our front office to properly identify key metrics when evaluating players.

 

Or maybe it was all just bad luck that half our roster blew up at the same time.

[Masterbather]

The fat useless core players who had the shelf life of a tomato, that's who. They're the ones that appear to have failed more than anyone else.

It's over, the emperor has no clothes.

[Stangstag]

Exactly. We mused about how in the worse case scenario we could become the White Sox with all that young talent in MLB and all the expectations. They failed.

 

I don't think we are there, but glossing over the situation or blaming employees does not help. We aren't the only team to have players not pan out or get hurt, suspended or whatever.

 

The FO is paid well to deal with variables, which occur in the baseball business and any other, and when the sample size is 8/9 years that is material.

 

The whitesox are actually a good comp. Sadly.

 

But it feels like the great orgs like Astros, Dodgers, Rays, Braves, etc don’t miss like that. Or don’t miss that badly.

 

Although 2 of those teams look like s*** right now…

[Nexii]

Farm systems should be rated based on their ability to develop players, not on what prospects are the pipeline. Trades and draft slots can make a farm system look better or worse than it really is.

 

The Jays so rarely bring up good players, I have to believe they're bottom third for development in the league

 

We're probably also top third for picking good free agents, but that's not enough

[Olerud363]

I'm not simping for anyone you f***tard, they can fire the whole lot I don't really give a s***. It's just funny to read all you know it alls calling for people heads like you had a f***ing clue in 2021 or 2022 we'd get zero WAR a month into the 2024 season from Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Manoah and Pearson and also have 5 high leverage relievers all die at atvyhe same time too.

 

Your implying that the collapse of Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Springer/Manoah/Pearson was random. Chances of this being random are actually pretty low.

 

If it was like a weird cluster of disease, like say 5 people in your town got a rare cancer at the same time, first thing to do (before identifying the cause) would be to run some statistical tests to see if it is random. If it's not random then you send the team in to test for PCBs and stuff.

 

So if Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Manoah and Pearson collapse to nothing

 

a) Commisioner gets stats guys to run tests to see if it is random

If there is chance it isn't random look for more cases including early onset decline injury from Bautista/Tulo/Sanchez/Devon Travis and injury for Donaldson.

c) If data indicates Blue Jays players are being harmed some how get players union and commissioner to make joint statement suspending Shapiro and Atkins while investigation is done.

[Spanky99]

I'm throwing names out there Spanky. Aging players with awful contracts have been traded before. Why don't you come up with some ideas?

 

Why would I come up with ideas, jaysblue, I just said it's an unmovable contract? Were you watching the Mets and Cards game last night and came up with that bright idea, those teams would laugh and hang up the phone.

[glory]

The fat useless core players who had the shelf life of a tomato, that's who. They're the ones that appear to have failed more than anyone else.

 

Then why enter 2024 with the same core and expect different results? That’s the definition of insanity, not bad luck.

[Brownie19]

People say 'f*** Joe Biden' or 'f*** Trump' or 'f*** Trudeau' all the time. Not being political just trying to establish that 'f*** Shapiro' is not over the top, just as 'f*** Trump', 'f*** Biden', 'f*** Trudeau' is not over the top.

 

Wow - I really disagree with this. If I see someone with a f*** TRUDEAU sticker on their truck, or a couple of flags on their front lawn, I immediately think that person is a complete douchebag. And do support Trudeau? No, I do not. Do people really go "oh yeah - this guy gets it! What a cool sticker/flag"? I think that type of behavior is completely over the top and illustrates zero emotional intelligence.

 

I guess I could look at them and assume they've given Trudeau lots of rope and while they appreciate how complicated running an entire country is, they feel the end result just isn't good enough and thus have lost faith in him. However, I've yet to meet anyone who's bought a f*** TRUDEAU sticker who can articulate anything intelligent about politics. Most just lean on something that affects them directly - like an alcohol tax and without understanding why that's in place, they get angry and outraged (because f*** everyone else).

 

I wonder if we'll see Doctors start erecting f*** TRUDEAU flags in response to the new capital gains tax. I kind of doubt we will. Sorry for the politics. No more from me.

 

At the root of it all - I get fans are upset and I agree that ultimately it's the FO's responsibility to deliver. I think I get frustrated because I get the impression some underestimate how difficult it is to successful execute the vision of bringing a WS champion to Toronto. There are infinite variables and lots of things that are outside of their control. Boston and Chicago both went like 100 years without a championship. It feels far to simplistic to just shift to "f*** ATKINS" when you aren't gifted a championship after 8-9 years (or after 4-5 years in some cases). If you took the very best GM in baseball and he signed in Toronto in 2016 instead of Atkins, I honestly believe there's a 80%+ chance that we still don't have a ring and would be looking to re-tool/re-build. And that's why I think f*** ATKINS stickers would be completely over the top.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I feel.

[Brownie19]

Not sure if this is sarcastic or not. The entire Baltimore denial is hilarious on this board. I guess the truth hurts.

 

Can you tell me who's in denial that the O's are a very good team and their future looks REALLY bright? It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. It's all in place now, much like it seemed that way for the Jays in 2020 (albeit the O's future looks wayyyy better IMO). How many titles will they win?

[Carlos Danger]

Wow - I really disagree with this. If I see someone with a f*** TRUDEAU sticker on their truck, or a couple of flags on their front lawn, I immediately think that person is a complete douchebag. And do support Trudeau? No, I do not. Do people really go "oh yeah - this guy gets it! What a cool sticker/flag"? I think that type of behavior is completely over the top and illustrates zero emotional intelligence.

 

I guess I could look at them and assume they've given Trudeau lots of rope and while they appreciate how complicated running an entire country is, they feel the end result just isn't good enough and thus have lost faith in him. However, I've yet to meet anyone who's bought a f*** TRUDEAU sticker who can articulate anything intelligent about politics. Most just lean on something that affects them directly - like an alcohol tax and without understanding why that's in place, they get angry and outraged (because f*** everyone else).

 

I wonder if we'll see Doctors start erecting f*** TRUDEAU flags in response to the new capital gains tax. I kind of doubt we will. Sorry for the politics. No more from me.

 

At the root of it all - I get fans are upset and I agree that ultimately it's the FO's responsibility to deliver. I think I get frustrated because I get the impression some underestimate how difficult it is to successful execute the vision of bringing a WS champion to Toronto. There are infinite variables and lots of things that are outside of their control. Boston and Chicago both went like 100 years without a championship. It feels far to simplistic to just shift to "f*** ATKINS" when you aren't gifted a championship after 8-9 years (or after 4-5 years in some cases). If you took the very best GM in baseball and he signed in Toronto in 2016 instead of Atkins, I honestly believe there's a 80%+ chance that we still don't have a ring and would be looking to re-tool/re-build. And that's why I think f*** ATKINS stickers would be completely over the top.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I feel.

 

All I get from this post once you get past the political and class rambling is baseball is hard. I see no accountability in your posts and understanding that the FOs job and sole objective is to be better than 29 other teams every year.

 

Winning the WS and how you are moving towards that goal is the only metric that counts.

 

The Jays FO has not moved the needle on that metric in 7 years. Time for accountability. Not sure what line of work you are in, but I suspect not very results oriented. Results matter.

[Omar]

One thing I distinctly remember when Mark Shapiro arrived here in Toronto, he lamented the fact that Alex Anthopoulis had drained the farm system in order to build the 2015 team. I thought okay. This guy is going to come in and rebuild our farm system from scratch and have a constant pool of Major League ready players or potential players. How wrong I was? In actual fact we hired the wrong guy. We should have hired Chris antonetti out of Cleveland and not Shapiro because Chris antonetti is the one who built the Cleveland farm system at that time. Shapiro didn't do much for Cleveland after 2010. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall and jumped ship for that reason. Either way Shapiro has been a let down for me, cupholders notwithstanding.