Around Baseball 2024

[L54]

I really hope Teo gets burnt on a line drive from Ketel Marte in the NLDS to end their season

[Spanky99]

I really hope Teo gets burnt on a line drive from Ketel Marte in the NLDS to end their season

 

lol

[Stangstag]

I really hope Teo gets burnt on a line drive from Ketel Marte in the NLDS to end their season

 

Camera pans to Ohtani on the bench, stone-faced

[max silver]

This should be the least controversial stance among all baseball fans. I can’t believe a group of billionaires didn’t see this coming.. dumb as f*** tbh

 

I don't think anyone really foresaw the possibility of a player agreeing to defer nearly their entire salary ten years into the future. Baseball never had a player making $40 million a season on endorsements alone but there certainly needs to be some sort of limits on deferrals in the future.

[L54]

I don't think anyone really foresaw the possibility of a player agreeing to defer nearly their entire salary ten years into the future. Baseball never had a player making $40 million a season on endorsements alone but there certainly needs to be some sort of limits on deferrals in the future.

 

No limits on deferrals. I don’t care when Ohtani gets paid or if he ever does. I honestly couldn’t care less

 

What I do care about is the language used and the rules set. If you sign a 20 year $1B contract the luxury tax hit you take is 50M/year

[L54]

Camera pans to Ohtani on the bench, stone-faced

 

One can only hope

[max silver]

No limits on deferrals. I don’t care when Ohtani gets paid or if he ever does. I honestly couldn’t care less

 

What I do care about is the language used and the rules set. If you sign a 20 year $1B contract the luxury tax hit you take is 50M/year

 

I should have been more specific in that deferrals applying to the luxury tax need to have limits if they are even allowed in the first place. I have zero concerns if a player is willing to defer money 100 years into the future but there needs to be limits of how this is applied to the luxury tax calculation.

[Carlos Danger]

I find it interesting the Jays did not appear to be in the final four of Teo suitors. I wonder if there is something we don’t know with the Jays FO and Teo. Seemed like he made sense at the deadline and they would at least be in on him somewhat if names like Soler and Joc are being bandied about by MLBTR.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I find it interesting the Jays did not appear to be in the final four of Teo suitors. I wonder if there is something we don’t know with the Jays FO and Teo. Seemed like he made sense at the deadline and they would at least be in on him somewhat if names like Soler and Joc are being bandied about by MLBTR.

 

Teo probably didn't want to risk getting any ice buckets dumped on him

[Stangstag]

I find it interesting the Jays did not appear to be in the final four of Teo suitors. I wonder if there is something we don’t know with the Jays FO and Teo. Seemed like he made sense at the deadline and they would at least be in on him somewhat if names like Soler and Joc are being bandied about by MLBTR.

 

Seems like they really soured on Teo, for whatever reason. Because he would fit nicely here on a 1 year deal. 20 million is a bit much though IMO.

[Jonn]

Dodgers have spent over a Billion dollars on free agent contracts this off-season. There are franchises that won’t spend that in 2 decades.

[Masterbather]

Can the Dodgers kindly let the rest of us know when they're done eating all the good food at the table so we can pick the f***ing scraps?

[Jays24]

Sucks, I really wanted Teo as our 4th OFer/DH.

 

I would always want to sign guys who prefer a 1 year prove it deals. Theres a long list of guys like Ray, Semien, Bellinger who perform amazing in those scenarios.

Edited January 8, 2024 by Jays24

[Dick_Pole]

What the Dodgers are doing is annoying in the short term. But as Jays fans, you need to think of the bigger picture. The Yankees reign as the incumbent or cultural leader, top revenue generator and most valuable franchise in MLB is coming to an end. And once they fall from #1, I think the fall is going to be hard. Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2009. The prospects coming up will be too young to remember them as winners. Just as a team that kind of exists in the playoffs, but fizzles out. The most hyped free agents are coming from Japan and they have an affinity for the west coast. On top of the fact that baseball is in decline in general in American cultural relevance. But rising in places where the Dodgers will be favoured.

 

What are the Yankees now? An overpaid, old, frail team that hasn't signed a relevant top free agent since Cole (but paid several guys like top FA) with a moron of a GM who is finally being exposed as such. The Dodgers are cool and hip. The Yankees are not. The team, logo and brand are going to be seen as "your dad's baseball team". It'll be interesting to see whether they simply lay down and die like Myspace or if they are going to undertake a futile fight like Blackberry. The Yankees are going to have a very bad next 5-10 years ahead of them as they have to deal with the fact that they can't just buy an all-star team anymore. That opens it up for the AL East rivals. It'll be a lot easier to try to handle the Dodgers in seven games in October.

[Olerud363]

By dramatically lowering their 2023 luxury tax hit by deferring a huge chunk of the salary to future years. From what I can gather this includes Ohtani, Betts, and now Hernandez as players who have accepted deferred payments instead of present day salary. How much is this lowering the Dodger's 2023 luxury tax hit as a result? I get that the "present value" of these deals is less but it just doesn't sit with me well that the total value of these deals isn't simply averaged out over the length of the actual contract for luxury tax purposes. This is allowing the Dodgers to essentially assemble a super team and not be hit with the appropriate luxury tax penalties as a direct result.

 

They actually aren't dodging anything. My understanding is that they have to put the present day value of the money into a safe investment to guarantee it will be there in the future. And the luxury tax hit is the present day value. I also assume this changes every year depending on interest rates.

 

So basically take Ohtani. He is owed 70 million in 2034 so they need to put 48 million in a 10 year U.S. treasury or something safe. They get the 70 million out in 10 years and pay him, but the current tax hit is 48, and they actually have to spend 48 on the investment this year.

 

It's a bit confusing as to why they are even bothering with this. Just pay him 48 million and let Ohtani put it in 10 year treasuries if he wants. It might be a tax advantage to the player.

 

Interesting thing is if interest rates go down Dodgers have to put in more. So if interest rates 2% next year, they'll have to put in 60 million or something and I assume that will be their luxury tax hit.

 

Can anyone confirm this? Do they re-do the present day value of the deferred money each year? If not then their are some scenarios where this could be unfair depending what happens with interest rates.

[JaysAllMighty]

Teo probably didn't want to risk getting any ice buckets dumped on him

 

Ya, that s*** has to stop, Vladdy needs to grow up.

[saskjayfan]

They actually aren't dodging anything. My understanding is that they have to put the present day value of the money into a safe investment to guarantee it will be there in the future. And the luxury tax hit is the present day value. I also assume this changes every year depending on interest rates.

 

So basically take Ohtani. He is owed 70 million in 2034 so they need to put 48 million in a 10 year U.S. treasury or something safe. They get the 70 million out in 10 years and pay him, but the current tax hit is 48, and they actually have to spend 48 on the investment this year.

 

It's a bit confusing as to why they are even bothering with this. Just pay him 48 million and let Ohtani put it in 10 year treasuries if he wants. It might be a tax advantage to the player.

 

Interesting thing is if interest rates go down Dodgers have to put in more. So if interest rates 2% next year, they'll have to put in 60 million or something and I assume that will be their luxury tax hit.

 

Can anyone confirm this? Do they re-do the present day value of the deferred money each year? If not then their are some scenarios where this could be unfair depending what happens with interest rates.

 

They are putting money into an escrow account. This is the thing people don't understand. They aren't just outlaying 2 million dollars for Ohtani. It's not 70 mil but it's the 46 mil a year that counts against the luxury tax. The dodgers have a ridiculous lineup right now. The pitching staff is fragile, but I'm sure Kershaw will practically play for free if he's able to get back mid summer.

[BTS]

Teo is a year younger than Soler. They were about equally valuable in 2023. They project to be equally valuable in 2024. I don't see why Soler's market would be any better than Teo's. Hopefully Atkins is on it.

[Laika]

Teo is a year younger than Soler. They were about equally valuable in 2023. They project to be equally valuable in 2024. I don't see why Soler's market would be any better than Teo's. Hopefully Atkins is on it.

 

IMO it is weird people were even expecting them to sign similar deals.

 

Soler has had one great year, one okay year (2023) and then a bunch of useless seasons. He had to hit 36 homers to be a league average player in 2023 because everything else is so bad.

 

Teoscar has 70% more career WAR in 60 less games. Since he became established, he has never been bad. His "disappointing" 2023 was as valuable as Soler's "strong" platform 2023.

 

If nobody was offering Hernandez a good enough long-term deal for him to even consider, then Soler's market might be ugly. I am looking forward to him signing an incentive laden 1 year deal with Toronto. Maybe a cute little 2 year deal with little risk. Some team options for fun.

 

Now, Hernandez is simply so much better that he can reasonably try to have an elite 2024 and then get a Castellanos contract. Soler would be a fool to do that and should take the most guaranteed money he is offered.

[BTS]

IMO it is weird people were even expecting them to sign similar deals.

 

Soler has had one great year, one okay year (2023) and then a bunch of useless seasons. He had to hit 36 homers to be a league average player in 2023 because everything else is so bad.

 

Teoscar has 70% more career WAR in 60 less games. Since he became established, he has never been bad. His "disappointing" 2023 was as valuable as Soler's "strong" platform 2023.

 

If nobody was offering Hernandez a good enough long-term deal for him to even consider, then Soler's market might be ugly. I am looking forward to him signing an incentive laden 1 year deal with Toronto. Maybe a cute little 2 year deal with little risk. Some team options for fun.

 

Now, Hernandez is simply so much better that he can reasonably try to have an elite 2024 and then get a Castellanos contract. Soler would be a fool to do that and should take the most guaranteed money he is offered.

 

Ross is going to get him for like 18 + a team option with a 2M buyout. He's going to hit 40 bombs and we will all be celebrating the masterful offseason.

[Frenchsoup]

15 million for teo plus 8 million in deferred payments.....looks like quite an overpay for an AAA scrub...

[John_Havok]

IMO it is weird people were even expecting them to sign similar deals.

 

Soler has had one great year, one okay year (2023) and then a bunch of useless seasons. He had to hit 36 homers to be a league average player in 2023 because everything else is so bad.

 

Teoscar has 70% more career WAR in 60 less games. Since he became established, he has never been bad. His "disappointing" 2023 was as valuable as Soler's "strong" platform 2023.

 

If nobody was offering Hernandez a good enough long-term deal for him to even consider, then Soler's market might be ugly. I am looking forward to him signing an incentive laden 1 year deal with Toronto. Maybe a cute little 2 year deal with little risk. Some team options for fun.

 

Now, Hernandez is simply so much better that he can reasonably try to have an elite 2024 and then get a Castellanos contract. Soler would be a fool to do that and should take the most guaranteed money he is offered.

 

All of this.

 

Soler should sign the next deal that comes his way that looks even remotely close to what Teo just got.

[Terminator]

Ben Clemens was spot on with Lourdes and Garver.

 

And he has Teo, Soler and Hoskins all ranked right next to each other and getting 3 year 45 million dollar deals. Clemens also had Pederson getting 1 year and 12 mil and Turner getting 1 year and 10 mil.

 

I'm not sure the Teo deal blows up the rest of his predictions just yet. Seems like the Dodgers are a unique situation where a guy like Teo would be willing to sign a 1 year deal.

 

But regardless, one of Soler, Hoskins and Pederson are going to get less than what everyone thinks and I'd be fine with any of the three. They all project similarly so I'd probably prefer whoever is cheapest.

 

Turner I would be less thrilled with but he could make sense if he can chip in at 3B for 40+ games but I'm not sure that he can anymore.

[Brownie19]

Ben Clemens was spot on with Lourdes and Garver.

 

And he has Teo, Soler and Hoskins all ranked right next to each other and getting 3 year 45 million dollar deals. Clemens also had Pederson getting 1 year and 12 mil and Turner getting 1 year and 10 mil.

 

I'm not sure the Teo deal blows up the rest of his predictions just yet. Seems like the Dodgers are a unique situation where a guy like Teo would be willing to sign a 1 year deal.

 

But regardless, one of Soler, Hoskins and Pederson are going to get less than what everyone thinks and I'd be fine with any of the three. They all project similarly so I'd probably prefer whoever is cheapest.

 

Turner I would be less thrilled with but he could make sense if he can chip in at 3B for 40+ games but I'm not sure that he can anymore.

 

Man - how good would 2021/2022 Turner be for this team? Start 60-90 games at 3rd and DH the rest. 125 wRC+ If only he could turn back the clock.

[connorp]

Yeah this is gross. Intentional and targeted. And mocking the outrage. He has predator tendencies similar to R. Kelly and should be punished as such.

 

But...if we are still doing this s***:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedophilia

 

Pedophilia (alternatively spelled paedophilia) is a psychiatric disorder in which an adult or older adolescent experiences a primary or exclusive sexual attraction to prepubescent children.[1][2]: vii  Although girls typically begin the process of puberty at age 10 or 11, and boys at age 11 or 12,[3] psychiatric diagnostic criteria for pedophilia extend the cut-off point for prepubescence to age 13.[4] People with the disorder are often referred to as pedophiles (or paedophiles).

 

I can't speak for connor but he probably has the same type of reasoning based on his posts. I'm not defending Franco. I'm defending the definition of the word "pedophile".

 

I’m glad that you don’t need to be a sociopath to understand there’s a difference between Jared from Subway and Wander Franco. R Kelly is actually a really great comp. Just a weird dude that wanted to find younger girls (14-18) to try to control/brainwash them.

 

While R Kelly succeeded, Wander seems to have picked the wrong 14yo. He comes off as desperately looking for love and trying to groom her for the kitchen and she ate his ass for breakfast. Was banging another dude and basically said you better give me money too, or I’ll turn your ass in. He called her bluff and his career is likely over.

 

Anyways, that’s concludes it for me. But I’m curious why Jim hasn’t traded him to me for a draft pick.

[BigCecil]

Happy for Teo.

 

Going from being the guy who almost killed Altuve in HOU, not knowing if we would have a MLB career, to family financial security through arb year payments and this deal. No matter what happens with the rest of his career after 2024, they are set for life. The deferred salary has lower NPV but its essentially a pension plan for them. I think he will have a huge year with LAD anyway and it won't be his last deal.

 

Good for them.

[connorp]

Teo has such a wide variety of outcomes. I could see him being a .920 OPS bat and also his career basically being over. I wouldn’t bet on either. Worth the shot for a team with deep pockets though for sure.

[connorp]

Seems like they really soured on Teo, for whatever reason. Because he would fit nicely here on a 1 year deal. 20 million is a bit much though IMO.

 

I’d take one year of Teo over 2 of IKF but not anything to gloom over I guess.

[Grant77]

Yankees grab Kevin Smith. That must knock them out of the Chapman sweepstakes.

[Jays24]

Teo has such a wide variety of outcomes. I could see him being a .920 OPS bat and also his career basically being over. I wouldn’t bet on either. Worth the shot for a team with deep pockets though for sure.

 

Like I've said before, you always want the guys who opt for 1 year "prove it" deals. More often than not, these guys work their asses off during the offseason and put up one of their best seasons. I would wager Teo will do just that, health permitting.