General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[saskjayfan]

I don't think that's true with Vlad, his decisions on the basepaths are terrible, and I love Vladdy. I'd gladfully like to be wrong here.

 

Vlad can hit a laser 117 mph off the bat right over the right fielder's head off the wall and have it bounce back hard right to the right fielder and he's on first. It's an advance attempt because of where the ball hit. He would have gotten thrown out if he had tried to advance. His base running stats in that scenario take a hit for making the right decision. Organizations can have third base coaches that hold up guys at third far too often and players base running stats will suffer. Vlad makes some boneheaded mistakes on the basepaths, but he's probably not as bad as what it says on Fangraphs.

 

FWAR is not the perfect stat. Roster construction on a team matters. The Yankees were second and won 94 games. Cleveland was 13 and won 92 games. The Tigers were 15th in team WAR and made the playoffs. The Braves were 5th in team war and barely made the playoffs. People look at the Gimenez trade and say, well the Jays got a win or two better. We're paying 19 mil a season and we didn't address what the roster needed. If we were chalk full off offense that would have been one thing, but we desperately need home runs. Committing that amount of dollars and not addressing what the roster construction required was the problem. We might climb the fantasy FWAR standings, but we're not winning more games until we address the lack of offense.

[Dagagad]

Well yeah they clearly need better player development, but that’s more of having the right coaches/systems in place. And to be honest that’s something that doesn’t just show up in one year it probably takes 3-5 years for it to show up in a meaningful way.

 

They could finally have the proper development coaches in place now, and it’s very likely Atkins is gone before we find out.

 

He'll be there ten years next december.

[Spanky99]

Vlad can hit a laser 117 mph off the bat right over the right fielder's head off the wall and have it bounce back hard right to the right fielder and he's on first. It's an advance attempt because of where the ball hit. He would have gotten thrown out if he had tried to advance. His base running stats in that scenario take a hit for making the right decision. Organizations can have third base coaches that hold up guys at third far too often and players base running stats will suffer. Vlad makes some boneheaded mistakes on the basepaths, but he's probably not as bad as what it says on Fangraphs.

 

FWAR is not the perfect stat. Roster construction on a team matters. The Yankees were second and won 94 games. Cleveland was 13 and won 92 games. The Tigers were 15th in team WAR and made the playoffs. The Braves were 5th in team war and barely made the playoffs. People look at the Gimenez trade and say, well the Jays got a win or two better. We're paying 19 mil a season and we didn't address what the roster needed. If we were chalk full off offense that would have been one thing, but we desperately need home runs. Committing that amount of dollars and not addressing what the roster construction required was the problem. We might climb the fantasy FWAR standings, but we're not winning more games until we address the lack of offense.

 

K.....

[Omar]

Vlad can hit a laser 117 mph off the bat right over the right fielder's head off the wall and have it bounce back hard right to the right fielder and he's on first. It's an advance attempt because of where the ball hit. He would have gotten thrown out if he had tried to advance. His base running stats in that scenario take a hit for making the right decision. Organizations can have third base coaches that hold up guys at third far too often and players base running stats will suffer. Vlad makes some boneheaded mistakes on the basepaths, but he's probably not as bad as what it says on Fangraphs.

 

FWAR is not the perfect stat. Roster construction on a team matters. The Yankees were second and won 94 games. Cleveland was 13 and won 92 games. The Tigers were 15th in team WAR and made the playoffs. The Braves were 5th in team war and barely made the playoffs. People look at the Gimenez trade and say, well the Jays got a win or two better. We're paying 19 mil a season and we didn't address what the roster needed. If we were chalk full off offense that would have been one thing, but we desperately need home runs. Committing that amount of dollars and not addressing what the roster construction required was the problem. We might climb the fantasy FWAR standings, but we're not winning more games until we address the lack of offense.

 

At the end of last season Atkins was tasked to fix the glaring weaknesses of this team and among other competing priorities add 60 home runs to this ball club in order to have a chance to be competitive in 2025. While we aren't even at spring training yet, so trying not to prejudge but it sure looks like this team doesn't have a concrete plan to accomplish that goal. Hope I'm wrong.

[max silver]

At the end of last season Atkins was tasked to fix the glaring weaknesses of this team and among other competing priorities add 60 home runs to this ball club in order to have a chance to be competitive in 2025. While we aren't even at spring training yet, so trying not to prejudge but it sure looks like this team doesn't have a concrete plan to accomplish that goal. Hope I'm wrong.

 

I don't think it's some sort of insurmountable task to add 50-60 home runs to the lineup. A typical healthy Bichette season on it's own adds 15-20 home runs. Add a bat like Teoscar or Santander and there's another 30. It appears as though Popkins is being brought aboard with a task of squeezing a little more power out of the existing roster but that's certainly not close to enough on it's own without meaningful external adds.

[Omar]

I don't think it's some sort of insurmountable task to add 50-60 home runs to the lineup. A typical healthy Bichette season on it's own adds 15-20 home runs. Add a bat like Teoscar or Santander and there's another 30. It appears as though Popkins is being brought aboard with a task of squeezing a little more power out of the existing roster but that's certainly not close to enough on it's own without meaningful external adds.

 

I agree not insurmountable with a Bo positive regression and maybe some overachievers plus a heavy bat added to the lineup, but I have my doubts.

[keggy]

 

Looking at that list it's probably better that he doesn't sign more extensions.

[Stangstag]

Looking at that list it's probably better that he doesn't sign more extensions.

 

I honestly feel like the Berrios extension and him looking terrible the 1st year gave Shatkins a major scare and is a big reason they never extended Bo/Vlad.

 

Berrios was about as consistent as they come, and he turned into a pumpkin almost immediately. He’s been up and down since.

 

Vlad and Bo have not shown themselves to be consistent.

[max silver]

I honestly feel like the Berrios extension and him looking terrible the 1st year gave Shatkins a major scare and is a big reason they never extended Bo/Vlad.

 

Berrios was about as consistent as they come, and he turned into a pumpkin almost immediately. He’s been up and down since.

 

Vlad and Bo have not shown themselves to be consistent.

 

Bo had been a very consistent performer as by the end of each season he would typically settle into the 4.5-5 win/700 PA range. It's only the injury riddled 2024 season in which he hasn't performed to his typical standards.

[Brownie19]

Bo had been a very consistent performer as by the end of each season he would typically settle into the 4.5-5 win/700 PA range. It's only the injury riddled 2024 season in which he hasn't performed to his typical standards.

 

Bo also comes with a very risky profile for long term success. But that, or the inconsistencies of Vlad don't really matter. Atkins is s*** for not extending players period. I mean some nobody from the Score, who gets paid based on the number of clicks said so in a tweet that lacks context, or any type of comparison. We should all be alarmed and angry.

 

Who doesn't want Kirk locked up for the next 6 years?

[Stangstag]

Bo also comes with a very risky profile for long term success. But that, or the inconsistencies of Vlad don't really matter. Atkins is s*** for not extending players period. I mean some nobody from the Score, who gets paid based on the number of clicks said so in a tweet that lacks context, or any type of comparison. We should all be alarmed and angry.

 

Who doesn't want Kirk locked up for the next 6 years?

 

I remember the Manoah extension talks in 2022

[Brownie19]

I remember the Manoah extension talks in 2022

 

Oh that's a great one. Shame on that **** Atkins for not giving Manoah a massive extension. We should all shame him. Espinal too - that guy was an all-star and we didn't extend him? f***ing morons.

[Vdubfan]

I honestly feel like the Berrios extension and him looking terrible the 1st year gave Shatkins a major scare and is a big reason they never extended Bo/Vlad.

 

Berrios was about as consistent as they come, and he turned into a pumpkin almost immediately. He’s been up and down since.

 

Vlad and Bo have not shown themselves to be consistent.

 

Or Vlad always saw himself as Tatis and that would've felt INSANE either of the previous two offseasons.

[Jonn]

My main issue with Atkins is he doesn’t commit to a direction. Back to back off seasons is willing to commit to the biggest contract in the history of Baseball. But it hasn’t happened and he seemingly has no pivot. Did he expect to sign Ohtani or Soto and just expect everything to fall in place? Team has a variety of holes and it makes it seem like we’re in a state of limbo opposed to actually fielding a competitive team. The AL is pretty weak in general and it’s possible with a couple of strong additions the team could be in the wild card situation with good health. But it’s hard to imagine this team actually winning anything significant. Is sneaking in the backdoor of a wild card spot and playing 1 game really the best we could hope for? Because that’s all this core has shown. I don’t even think Ohtani or Soto alone could fix that. Does one of the make another star come along. That’s how it might work in Basketball but doesn’t really work in Baseball.

[Spanky99]

My main issue with Atkins is he doesn’t commit to a direction. Back to back off seasons is willing to commit to the biggest contract in the history of Baseball. But it hasn’t happened and he seemingly has no pivot. Did he expect to sign Ohtani or Soto and just expect everything to fall in place? Team has a variety of holes and it makes it seem like we’re in a state of limbo opposed to actually fielding a competitive team. The AL is pretty weak in general and it’s possible with a couple of strong additions the team could be in the wild card situation with good health. But it’s hard to imagine this team actually winning anything significant. Is sneaking in the backdoor of a wild card spot and playing 1 game really the best we could hope for? Because that’s all this core has shown. I don’t even think Ohtani or Soto alone could fix that. Does one of the make another star come along. That’s how it might work in Basketball but doesn’t really work in Baseball.

 

Look no further than the Angels with Trout and Ohtani.

[Jonn]

I honestly feel like the Berrios extension and him looking terrible the 1st year gave Shatkins a major scare and is a big reason they never extended Bo/Vlad.

 

Berrios was about as consistent as they come, and he turned into a pumpkin almost immediately. He’s been up and down since.

 

Vlad and Bo have not shown themselves to be consistent.

 

Honestly there was a point where giving Vlad the kind of money being discussed would have been a ludicrous situation. We were thinking that in May before he exploded and had a monster rest of the Season. Now the Jays have too pay him. It really is a moot point though… I don’t think Vlad was ever going to sign an extension early. Especially when he wasn’t performing anything like he did in 2021. They really are in a position now that they either have to sign him for more than they ever wanted or trade him. They either overpay him or lose him for nothing otherwise. Which one is better it’s hard to tell unless they actually plan on putting a team around him.

[Brownie19]

Honestly there was a point where giving Vlad the kind of money being discussed would have been a ludicrous situation. We were thinking that in May before he exploded and had a monster rest of the Season. Now the Jays have too pay him. It really is a moot point though… I don’t think Vlad was ever going to sign an extension early. Especially when he wasn’t performing anything like he did in 2021. They really are in a position now that they either have to sign him for more than they ever wanted or trade him. They either overpay him or lose him for nothing otherwise. Which one is better it’s hard to tell unless they actually plan on putting a team around him.

 

That is really well put Jonn.

[Masterbather]

Honestly there was a point where giving Vlad the kind of money being discussed would have been a ludicrous situation. We were thinking that in May before he exploded and had a monster rest of the Season. Now the Jays have too pay him. It really is a moot point though… I don’t think Vlad was ever going to sign an extension early. Especially when he wasn’t performing anything like he did in 2021. They really are in a position now that they either have to sign him for more than they ever wanted or trade him. They either overpay him or lose him for nothing otherwise. Which one is better it’s hard to tell unless they actually plan on putting a team around him.

 

This seems really easy to me, I don't know why this is so complicated, you have to trade him. That's the simple answer. Signing him to the kind of contract he's looking for is something they obviously are not going to do, nor should they do. Losing him for nothing is utterly ridiculous, that option cannot be entertained. Trading him at the deadline makes no sense because if they're in a wild card race it'll look horrible on the organization to trade him, but you can't lose him for nothing I don't care if they are in a wild card race. Thus, you have to trade him and it has to be this offseason. There's every chance you get more value out of the pieces you get back, especially for the money you will be saving.

 

Same goes for Bo. I still think you can get more than pennies on the dollar for him, he had a consistent run of all star success outside of one injury plagued season. It seems even more certain that they're unlikely to sign him so trade him too.

 

Pull off the f***ing Band-Aid already.

[jaysblue]

Oh that's a great one. Shame on that **** Atkins for not giving Manoah a massive extension. We should all shame him. Espinal too - that guy was an all-star and we didn't extend him? f***ing morons.

 

Man I love sarcasm at times, but your sarcasm is kind of cringe.

[JaysAllMighty]

This seems really easy to me, I don't know why this is so complicated, you have to trade him. That's the simple answer. Signing him to the kind of contract he's looking for is something they obviously are not going to do, nor should they do. Losing him for nothing is utterly ridiculous, that option cannot be entertained. Trading him at the deadline makes no sense because if they're in a wild card race it'll look horrible on the organization to trade him, but you can't lose him for nothing I don't care if they are in a wild card race. Thus, you have to trade him and it has to be this offseason. There's every chance you get more value out of the pieces you get back, especially for the money you will be saving.

 

Same goes for Bo. I still think you can get more than pennies on the dollar for him, he had a consistent run of all star success outside of one injury plagued season. It seems even more certain that they're unlikely to sign him so trade him too.

 

Pull off the f***ing Band-Aid already.

 

100% agree.

[Brownie19]

Man I love sarcasm at times, but your sarcasm is kind of cringe.

 

Oh great - you've got a new shtick.

[mphenhef]

Looking at that list it's probably better that he doesn't sign more extensions.

 

who have they let walk that would have been a good extension other than maybe Teo? you have to develop players to be able to extend them and that is a glaring weakness of this front office.

[mphenhef]

This seems really easy to me, I don't know why this is so complicated, you have to trade him. That's the simple answer. Signing him to the kind of contract he's looking for is something they obviously are not going to do, nor should they do. Losing him for nothing is utterly ridiculous, that option cannot be entertained. Trading him at the deadline makes no sense because if they're in a wild card race it'll look horrible on the organization to trade him, but you can't lose him for nothing I don't care if they are in a wild card race. Thus, you have to trade him and it has to be this offseason. There's every chance you get more value out of the pieces you get back, especially for the money you will be saving.

 

Same goes for Bo. I still think you can get more than pennies on the dollar for him, he had a consistent run of all star success outside of one injury plagued season. It seems even more certain that they're unlikely to sign him so trade him too.

 

Pull off the f***ing Band-Aid already.

 

Are you happy with a trade that brings back the equivalent of Isaac Parades, Hayden Wesniski and Cam Smith? I'm not sure I would be but that's about the value vlad would bring back.

[mphenhef]

My main issue with Atkins is he doesn’t commit to a direction. Back to back off seasons is willing to commit to the biggest contract in the history of Baseball. But it hasn’t happened and he seemingly has no pivot. Did he expect to sign Ohtani or Soto and just expect everything to fall in place? Team has a variety of holes and it makes it seem like we’re in a state of limbo opposed to actually fielding a competitive team. The AL is pretty weak in general and it’s possible with a couple of strong additions the team could be in the wild card situation with good health. But it’s hard to imagine this team actually winning anything significant. Is sneaking in the backdoor of a wild card spot and playing 1 game really the best we could hope for? Because that’s all this core has shown. I don’t even think Ohtani or Soto alone could fix that. Does one of the make another star come along. That’s how it might work in Basketball but doesn’t really work in Baseball.

 

He committed to defense pretty hard.

[JaysAllMighty]

He committed to defense pretty hard.

 

What good is defense when you can't score runs

[max silver]

who have they let walk that would have been a good extension other than maybe Teo? you have to develop players to be able to extend them and that is a glaring weakness of this front office.

 

Both Semien and Chapman were good extension candidates, but it would have taken a full freight free agent type of deal to prevent either of them heading to free agency.

[The_DH]

The Old Cardinals from the White Rat days used to have top notch defense, but they backed it up with great speed to make up for their slap and go hitters. We can't make that claim.

[Olerud363]

The Old Cardinals from the White Rat days used to have top notch defense, but they backed it up with great speed to make up for their slap and go hitters. We can't make that claim.

 

It was actually all about on base percentage. 85 and 87 Cardinals led league in on base percentage... somehow 1986 Cardinals in between were last.

 

Here are the numbers on base, steals, runs

 

'85 .339 316 750

'86 .309 260 601

'87 .340 248 798

 

Any team that can get on base .340 and slug .380 probably scores 730 runs with average baserunning and 750 with great baserunning.

 

Teams just can't apparently get on base anymore because of the pitching and defense... Like I think if Jays went 50 less homers but got on base at .340 they would score more runs... but that is not happening this day and age.

[Olerud363]

It was actually all about on base percentage. 85 and 87 Cardinals led league in on base percentage... somehow 1986 Cardinals in between were last.

 

Here are the numbers on base, steals, runs

 

'85 .339 316 750

'86 .309 260 601

'87 .340 248 798

 

Any team that can get on base .340 and slug .380 probably scores 730 runs with average baserunning and 750 with great baserunning.

 

Teams just can't apparently get on base anymore because of the pitching and defense... Like I think if Jays went 50 less homers but got on base at .340 they would score more runs... but that is not happening this day and age.

 

 

86 Cardinals stole 260 but only 600 runs

 

87 Cardinals went down a bit in steals, but up 200 in runs.

[Olerud363]

86 Cardinals stole 260 but only 600 runs

 

87 Cardinals went down a bit in steals, but up 200 in runs.

 

 

I'm not sure how much the baserunning helped. 80s Cardinals did often score more runs then you would expect. 80s Red Sox were a better hitting team, like they'd hit .270 .340 .400 and Cardinals would hit .270 .340 .380, and Cardinals would score a bit more some years. But other years Cardinals would score 600 with great baserunning.

 

So like if the trade off is team that steals 200 bases or a team that hits a bit better, I think the team that hits a bit better scores more runs. Like the late 80s Red Sox scored lots of runs just by hitting for average and on base but were horrible base runners.