General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Brownie19]

Yes, and it matched what David Samson was saying. He knows Vlad and his Dad well. Vlad seeking 10 years and Top 3 AAVs.

 

Its important to keep in mind that as hot as he is right now, he will probably finish the year around 3 WAR, not 6.

 

3 WAR = 6 WAR when you're a slugger like Vlad.

[John_Havok]

It is going to be fascinating to see if this is the real Vlad and he's going to be Miggy for the next 6-7 years. Is this sustainable? Who knows. I think there's a very real possibility this is mirage and we should cash in now, but I also think there's a real possibility he's finally matured and is going to be a beast moving forward. I lean towards locking him up now, but I'm still scarred by how s***** he was in 2022 and 2023 when we really needed him to be a star player. 2022 and 2023 likely finish differently if we have this version of Vlad on them.

 

It's almost like there's no right path for the Jays with Vlad. Trading him would be monumentally stupid, but signing him to a top 3 in baseball AAV would also be monumentally stupid.

[Carlos Danger]

It is going to be fascinating to see if this is the real Vlad and he's going to be Miggy for the next 6-7 years. Is this sustainable? Who knows. I think there's a very real possibility this is mirage and we should cash in now, but I also think there's a real possibility he's finally matured and is going to be a beast moving forward. I lean towards locking him up now, but I'm still scarred by how s***** he was in 2022 and 2023 when we really needed him to be a star player. 2022 and 2023 likely finish differently if we have this version of Vlad on them.

 

I agree with giving pause on Vladdy. Still a SSS compared to the past two years and the start of the season. Guys go on heaters.

 

If you don’t trade him by 6 pm tonight, you do NOT give a contract extension until at least end of season when you have the full body of work to evaluate.

 

Shapiro also is known to believe fans come to see winning teams, not specific players. I agree with Shapiro on this.

 

If you are looking for what’s best for the team long run. I would be very hesitant to dump almost $400 into just Vlad.

[Pendleton]

More like extend Vlad

Sign Soto

Sign Burnes

Sign capable backup catcher.

Figure out spots 3-8 in the pen

Get at least 1 thumper off the bench that's not totally useless in the field.

 

Rest of the bench is fine with what they have. Clement, Schneider, pick a backup CF from all the guys theyve just acquired, and the backup catcher they sign. Bench done. Decent amount of depth at AAA from the trade targets to fill in for Bo's year long calf injuries.

 

Probably need another SP though.

 

As far as the pen....Romano and Green (assuming no trade of the latter) are really the only guys I'd have any real faith in out of the gate. Swanson might pitch himself back into the circle of trust ...remains to be seen. Little I think is a capable arm, might surprise and be more than just a 2nd lefty, but not quite there yet. Cabrera is nasty and inconsistent. They've got a lot of "bottom 3" delivers, they definitely need a high leverage addition and at last 1 or 2 more mid-to high to shake out from the system or other pickups

 

But mostly they need Bo and Vlad to be great all season long

 

I have been the high guy on Jack Flaherty around here throughout his career but I'd be very ok with him as a (cheaper) alternative to Burnes if we miss on him. Bring back Kikuchi to complete the coup over Houston and you have a solid veteran four with competition for a 5th spot.

 

Flaherty, Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi, Bloss/Francis (sell Bassitt while the market is hot)

[AMS528]

Yes, and it matched what David Samson was saying. He knows Vlad and his Dad well. Vlad seeking 10 years and Top 3 AAVs.

 

If we don't give that he goes to market. The end.

 

Its important to keep in mind that as hot as he is right now, he will probably finish the year around 3 WAR, not 6. Again, he ain't a Betts.

 

He's at 2.8 fWAR and projected to finish with between 4-4.5ish. He's at 3.4 bWAR and would be projected to finish with around 5. He's also not playing like a 3 WAR player either.

[Brownie19]

It's almost like there's no right path for the Jays with Vlad. Trading him would be monumentally stupid, but signing him to a top 3 in baseball AAV would also be monumentally stupid.

 

Not exactly. Trading him now and watching him to back to the 2-3 WAR, 120-130 wRC+ player he was in 2022-23 could be a franchise altering move - as could extending him and watching him hit like Miggy from Age 26 through 33. This is a monumental decision for the Jays. There will be probabilities of each outcome and nobody will truly know what Vlad will become with any sort of certainty. Someone is going to weigh the odds of different outcomes and make a decision. I really hope they "hit". We know fans will s*** on them if they don't - even if they have very little control of the outcome.

[AMS528]

Not exactly. Trading him now and watching him to back to the 2-3 WAR, 120-130 wRC+ player he was in 2022-23 could be a franchise altering move - as could extending him and watching him hit like Miggy from Age 26 through 33. This is a monumental decision for the Jays. There will be probabilities of each outcome and nobody will truly know what Vlad will become with any sort of certainty. Someone is going to weigh the odds of different outcomes and make a decision. I really hope they "hit". We know fans will s*** on them if they don't - even if they have very little control of the outcome.

 

I think looking at the last four seasons, it's possible to see 2023 and say he underperformed his batted ball profile. When he was underperforming it earlier this year, it was easier to say, he's just a batted ball underperformer, but now his numbers line up. And they lined up in 2022, and in 2021. So there's that I guess, that last year was a down year and one where he was at least a little bit unlucky.

[Stangstag]

I have heard multiple industry sources say, and it tracks in my opinion, that if Vlad sustains the current numbers, you will need a just under $400 m contract. Probably something like $390 for 13 yrs.

 

I wouldn’t do it.

[M.E.]

I wouldn’t do it.

 

I don't know for 13 years, however I am in the camp of pay the man. It is so hard to get a player that has this skill base at this age. We need a piece to build around and we have no one in the organization that fits that mold other than Vlad. Money is not Rogers issue so I don't worry about the total salary commitments as much as some may. I would just like to pay him more early and have the per year amount decrease as he gets older. That way when he struggles as a 35-36 YO he can be dumped without as much of an impact on the roster. I don't see him playing to 40.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Imagine signing Vlad to a ~$400 million 13 year deal and then he reverts back to 1-2 fWAR...

 

Glad I don't have to make that call.

[max silver]

Yes, and it matched what David Samson was saying. He knows Vlad and his Dad well. Vlad seeking 10 years and Top 3 AAVs.

 

If we don't give that he goes to market. The end.

 

Its important to keep in mind that as hot as he is right now, he will probably finish the year around 3 WAR, not 6. Again, he ain't a Betts.

 

Vlad has been producing like a 6 WAR player over the last 3 months despite some of the worst defense and baserunning in the majors.

[Governator]

Long term deals are risky but it doesn't mean they aren't moveable after... He's not 28+ years old with a huge risk factor and lets be real studs get paid these days. If the Jays don't pay him someone certainly will. I don't beleive his position hinders his value as much as others think.

 

For those who forgot, when Vernon Wells came to this point in his career we extended him with the biggest contract in Jays history and was still able to trade him with the entire salary 3 years later. He was never a 6 WAR player...

[max silver]

Long term deals are risky but it doesn't mean they aren't moveable after... He's not 28+ years old with a huge risk factor and lets be real studs get paid these days. If the Jays don't pay him someone certainly will. I don't beleive his position hinders his value as much as others think.

 

For those who forgot, when Vernon Wells came to this point in his career we extended him with the biggest contract in Jays history and was still able to trade him with the entire salary 3 years later. He was never a 6 WAR player...

 

Trading Wells required one of MLB's dumbest owners forcing his general manager to take on a bad contract. If things go sideways with Vlad I'm not so sure you could rely on there being an equally dumb owner to once again force his front office to make this trade. Having said that I'm fully on board with extending Vlad as he's finally shown me enough to suggest that he's fixed at the plate.

[Stangstag]

Long term deals are risky but it doesn't mean they aren't moveable after... He's not 28+ years old with a huge risk factor and lets be real studs get paid these days. If the Jays don't pay him someone certainly will. I don't beleive his position hinders his value as much as others think.

 

For those who forgot, when Vernon Wells came to this point in his career we extended him with the biggest contract in Jays history and was still able to trade him with the entire salary 3 years later. He was never a 6 WAR player...

 

True. A better comp would be Stanton though. Signed a massive deal and got moved after a huge MVP season.

 

That could happen with Vlad before he even turns 30.

[metafour]

If the Jays don't pay him someone certainly will. I don't beleive his position hinders his value as much as others think.

 

Yordan Alvarez's extension just two years ago: 6 years, $115 million. He signed it when he was 24 years old, had elite seasons behind him, and was in the midst of an elite season in 2022 when he signed the extension.

 

Again, which team is lining up to pay a 1B/DH $300+ million with no guarantee on his hitting?

 

What makes Guerrero worth nearly 3x as much as Alvarez? These are the questions that any MLB front office is going to need to answer.

[max silver]

Yordan Alvarez's extension just two years ago: 6 years, $115 million. He signed it when he was 24 years old, had elite seasons behind him, and was in the midst of an elite season in 2022 when he signed the extension.

 

Again, which team is lining up to pay a 1B/DH $300+ million with no guarantee on his hitting?

 

What makes Guerrero worth nearly 3x as much as Alvarez? These are the questions that any MLB front office is going to need to answer.

 

I think Alvarez signed a bad deal so it probably shouldn't serve as a comparison. He's a 4 win player in a poor season and a 6 win player in a good season. I think he's underpaid to a great degree as one of MLB's best overall hitters and likely left a ton of money on the table vs going to free agency.

[Laika]

You can't really look at the money on the Alvarez thing because three of those contract years were salary controlled already.

 

But his AAV for the three years of free agency he gave up is $26M on the deal. That's instructive.

 

Freeman - $27M

Olson - $22M

 

I dunno man. Vlad would be insane to turn down $200M.

[BTS]

I really get the impression that Vlad wouldn't think twice about 200M, and might not even sign for 300M if it were offered to him tomorrow.

[Carlos Danger]

Long term deals are risky but it doesn't mean they aren't moveable after... He's not 28+ years old with a huge risk factor and lets be real studs get paid these days. If the Jays don't pay him someone certainly will. I don't beleive his position hinders his value as much as others think.

 

For those who forgot, when Vernon Wells came to this point in his career we extended him with the biggest contract in Jays history and was still able to trade him with the entire salary 3 years later. He was never a 6 WAR player...

 

That was a unicorn due to the dumb ass owner.

[metafour]

I think Alvarez signed a bad deal so it probably shouldn't serve as a comparison. He's a 4 win player in a poor season and a 6 win player in a good season. I think he's underpaid to a great degree as one of MLB's best overall hitters and likely left a ton of money on the table vs going to free agency.

 

Did he sign a "bad deal", or are you seriously understating the fact that DH/1B contracts are clearly suppressed and have been for 7+ years now?

 

Even if he signed a "bad deal", he didn't leave $200 million on the table. Its not like the Astros were sitting there expecting to have to pay him $300M, and Alvarez turned around and said "how about $115M?"

 

Players in the MLB are paid relative to other similar players.

 

The impasse here is that a totally "fair" offer for Vlad is likely ~$200-225M. But he expects to be paid $300+M. And there is no precedent for that signing, so what makes him the exception?

[dineke]

I really get the impression that Vlad wouldn't think twice about 200M, and might not even sign for 300M if it were offered to him tomorrow.

 

Easy decision then. He'd probably get fat again as soon as he signs anyways.

[Masterbather]

This is really simple: Trade him, get a haul. Let someone else be saddled with whatever enormous contract he gets.

 

He should have been gone at this deadline. I think we're going to look back at this deadline with a lot of regret once the Vlad endgame plays out.

[Omar]

$30M per would be an automatic for me to sign Vladdy.

[max silver]

Did he sign a "bad deal", or are you seriously understating the fact that DH/1B contracts are clearly suppressed and have been for 7+ years now?

 

Even if he signed a "bad deal", he didn't leave $200 million on the table. Its not like the Astros were sitting there expecting to have to pay him $300M, and Alvarez turned around and said "how about $115M?"

 

Players in the MLB are paid relative to other similar players.

 

The impasse here is that a totally "fair" offer for Vlad is likely ~$200-225M. But he expects to be paid $300+M. And there is no precedent for that signing, so what makes him the exception?

 

I think if Alvarez went to free agency he would have set a new standard for 1B/DH contracts as there aren't any recent players who reached free agency who are comparable based on elite offensive production from an early age and reaching free agency at a very young age as well. All of the other first basemen to sign in free agency were quite a bit older than Alvarez and didn't really offer the same type of consistent offensive output.

[Brownie19]

Is this the biggest decision in Blue Jays history?

[Carlos Danger]

Did he sign a "bad deal", or are you seriously understating the fact that DH/1B contracts are clearly suppressed and have been for 7+ years now?

 

Even if he signed a "bad deal", he didn't leave $200 million on the table. Its not like the Astros were sitting there expecting to have to pay him $300M, and Alvarez turned around and said "how about $115M?"

 

Players in the MLB are paid relative to other similar players.

 

The impasse here is that a totally "fair" offer for Vlad is likely ~$200-225M. But he expects to be paid $300+M. And there is no precedent for that signing, so what makes him the exception?

 

Vlad will make $25-$27M in in Arb, why the F would he take a contract for $20M AAV on a 10 yr deal.

 

Why would a 26 yr old FA sign a less than 10 year deal, so that brings it to $20M. No fnn way.

 

Even Vladdy said during an interview yesterday that baseball is a business. His agent will advise him, his dad will advise him, you don't give discounts, you get paid as much as you can.

[Masterbather]

$30M per would be an automatic for me to sign Vladdy.

If that's the case I got some Rolecks watches I'd love to sell you.

[Laika]

Something like 8 years at $27M per year, including 2025.

 

He would be 33 in the final year of that. If he is still good, he would have a chance to tack on one more decent contract.

 

That's still an uncomfortable amount of money IMO. For a fat guy with no defensive value and a track record of obesity issues.

[Omar]

If that's the case I got some Rolecks watches I'd love to sell you.

 

We're paying Springer $25M per annum and it barely gets a whisper around here and now you get your panties in a twist with $30M per for Vladdy. It is just the cost of doing business in 2024.

Get over it.

[Governator]

Is this the biggest decision in Blue Jays history?

 

 

I think so, we're talking about a franchise calibre player under team control that we are committing to build around. Although trading for Tulo's contract at the time was a pretty big decision too. The only thing certain was his defense... too bad his payments for the next 6 years was also.