Former Blue Jays Thread

[Pendleton]

Wasn't Reed Johnson nicknamed Superman? Is it appropriate to call Kevin Pillar that?

 

[jaysblue]

Reed Johnson and Frank Catalanotto were an awesome LF platoon. Both of them put together some nice years here and were fun to watch!

[Olerud363]

Factor out randomness? Randomness is just a term we use as a placeholder because we don't know all the variables in any particular situation. As you yourself have noted, there are far too many variables for any model to be complete. Hence we live in a world of probabilities.

 

Factor out randomness meaning identify patterns that can't be explained by randomness. Is there more correlation month to month then expected?

 

The first obvious answer is yes. If Vladimir Guerrero Junior hits 11 homers in April, 7 in May, and 9 in June we might say he's got a great chance of hitting 10 more in July. If he hits 2, 4 and 1 the first three months 'no power bro', he'll be lucky to hit 2 in July.

 

This is probably not random... or is it? If Vladimir Guerrero Junior is the only baseball player in existence you say there is no chance that happens by random chance, something changed. However if there are over 1000 major league players a year, and 130 years of baseball lots of s*** will happen randomly.

 

So identify what is random, and what has a cause. We not know the cause but first identify if something is real.

[Olerud363]

Yeah I think PEDs hitting their peak effectiveness is the bigger factor. For example Chris Davis and adderall and 2013. Then you see the degradation factor of the drug no longer working or perhaps how he became reliant on them and his stats fell off a cliff.

 

I think the cheating scandal and the Adderall situations are a big clue. I vaguely remember hearing Aaron Hill had some exceptions for some concussion meds 2009 and rumor is had to go off them, which if true explains some things. Chris Davis is a great example.

 

If stealing signs electronically and Adderall are effective, then teams will search for legal (or illegal but not yet catchable) ways to get the same effect.

[Olerud363]

Reed Johnson and Frank Catalanotto were an awesome LF platoon. Both of them put together some nice years here and were fun to watch!

 

The 2006 Blue Jays are hilarious. Cat hit .300. Reed Johnson hit .319. Shea 'the ship is sinking' Hillenbrand hit .300 before getting released for negative attitude. The team hit .284 .348 .460.

 

They inexplicably scored 100 runs less then they should have given their underlying stats. 100 f***ING RUNS gone into the f***ing twilight zone. 100!!!!!

 

The 2015 Blue Jays scored 891 runs with worse on base and slugging. Now relative to league 2015 Jays were better. However what I am saying is this.

 

How the f*** do 100 runs just go missing?

 

2006 Jays had same batting average and on base as 2006 Twins. And same runs scored.

 

However Jays had 50 more homers and 75 more doubles. What in f***ing f*** sakes? 125 more extra base hits should have to 100 more runs.... they had the stats of a 900 run team, but the runs went missing.

 

Reed Johnson hit .320. Could run the bases. The guys behind him hit homers. Cat hit .300 got on the bases. Wells and Glauss were healthy and slugging. How the f*** could they not score runs??

 

I blame John McDonald. Glauss played short stop a few games and should have played there the entire season. Then Shea, and Hinske could have stayed and destroyed John McDonalds .220 .250 .290 line or whatever it was. John Mcdonald probably ruined every ralley. Guy was popular.

[Olerud363]

Moreno and Kirk. Also brothers from a different mother. They are the same. Kirk is fatter. Kirk walks more.

 

They both hit .230 with 'no power bro'

[Olerud363]

Power: Teoscar Hernandez, Shoeih Ohtnai, Aaron Judge, Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson

 

No power: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, George Springer, Alejandra Kirk, Kevin Keimaier.

 

The 5 on the second list together have about as many homeruns as Teoscar and less than each other individual on the first list.

[Olerud363]

Power: Teoscar Hernandez, Shoeih Ohtnai, Aaron Judge, Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson

 

No power: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, George Springer, Alejandra Kirk, Kevin Keimaier.

 

The 5 on the second list together have about as many homeruns as Teoscar and less than each other individual on the first list.

 

Correction. The 5 on the second list have 19 homers which is more than Teoscar (17). The point is still valid though.

[Terminator]

 

"Three strikeouts on called pitches suggests he’s still not swinging the bat at borderline strikes."

[Omar]

 

"Three strikeouts on called pitches suggests he’s still not swinging the bat at borderline strikes."

 

That's our boy!

[wilko]

 

"Three strikeouts on called pitches suggests he’s still not swinging the bat at borderline strikes."

 

Some things never change.

[G-Snarls]

Some things never change.

 

2/13 since the trade

 

Curious if they can make anything work better with him but I doubt it. They can't afford to play him regularly if he's not hitting. He might have been better off going to a non-contender.

[glory]

Damn that dude was starting over DS in the playoffs last season. Still not over that.

[Laika]

 

art.

[L54]

 

"Three strikeouts on called pitches suggests he’s still not swinging the bat at borderline strikes."

 

f***in guy is gonna run himself outta the bigs by not taking the bat off his shoulder like the kid hitting ninth on the U9 team

[G-Snarls]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2570[/ATTACH]

 

art.

 

[Stangstag]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2570[/ATTACH]

 

art.

 

Embarrassing

[G-Snarls]

Embarrassing

 

Bo would have swung at every one of those goddamn pitches!

[Pendleton]

[Jonn]

 

Good for him. He looked like he wasn’t going to make it and has rebounded nicely the past year and half.

[Pendleton]

[Pendleton]

[Omar]

[max silver]

Good for him. He looked like he wasn’t going to make it and has rebounded nicely the past year and half.

 

Super small sample size alert but Kloffenstein scored an overall 61 Stuff+ rating including a 48 on his sinker which appears to be his most commonly used pitch.

[wilko]

 

Pillar's having the time of his life with the Angels.

[G-Snarls]

Pillar's having the time of his life with the Angels.

 

56 games this year:

 

.290/.354/.510

wRC+ 142

 

I mean it won't last of course but where the fk did that even come from???

[Omar]

56 games this year:

 

.290/.354/.510

wRC+ 142

 

I mean it won't last of course but where the fk did that even come from???

 

Home cookin'?

[BigCecil]

Just looking this morning.

 

Since the trade of LGJ + Moreno for Varsho 1.5+ seasons ago, both Moreno and Varsho have been produced the exact same WAR total of 3.8

 

LGJ was a 2 WAR player in '23 and is having a 1.3 WAR '24 so far.

[AMS528]

What people always forget with Lourdes, is that he is the streakiest player to ever exist so even if he's struggling early all he needs is a hot month. And if he's doing great than all he needs is a s***** month to pull him back to his equilibrium.

 

In a way it makes him perfect for this trade because depending on the month he's sitting right there to be used for each agenda. Very helpful for the discourse on this board and elsewhere.

 

Varsho is streaky as well so you've got that.

 

Now that Moreno's gone on his own little heater, he's been worth as much as Varsho probably, and he's showing a bit more power as well. It's probably never going to be a horrible trade, but if I was picking which side of the trade I'd rather have, I'd probably take Arizona's now. Lourdes has gotten them a decent little bit of value and is signed to a not unreasonable deal. Moreno has more years of control, is younger and his bat has a much more sustainable approach.

 

He's improved his K/BB ratio and it looks quite good now. You add that with a touch of power and his already very good defensive numbers and that's going to have value. Varsho's value is going to have a steady floor with his defense, but any upside is going to depend on what is a very very shaky looking batted ball profile.

[glory]

Just looking this morning.

 

Since the trade of LGJ + Moreno for Varsho 1.5+ seasons ago, both Moreno and Varsho have been produced the exact same WAR total of 3.8

 

LGJ was a 2 WAR player in '23 and is having a 1.3 WAR '24 so far.

 

Varsho has 267 more plate appearances than Moreno over that span, and a lower wRC+ (89 vs 103 for Moreno), which makes the WAR comparison worse for Varsho.

 

Moreno is not the 2nd coming of Jason Kendall like some Jays fans were acting like last year, but the Jays clearly whiffed on this deal. Not only did they miscalculate what Varsho is offensively, but they intentionally put him in LF for reasons that I still can't comprehend, so it was just doomed to fail from the beginning.