General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[RustyTrombone]

Not sure if anyone else caught BNS appearance on Jays Talk Plus yesterday, but he cleared up a lot of the confusion surrounding the Manoah situation to the point where it's pretty easy to infer what's going on at this point.

 

Quote from BNS yesterday: "My understanding is Manoah's going to have some further testing done, that's going to happen sometime soon. Manoah has reported some physical symptoms related to his quad, back and knee and wants to get those checked out, and it sounds like the Blue Jays are on board with him getting those things checked out. But at this point no injury has been found, and Manoah is going to continue visiting specialists and see where that leads."

 

Before I continued listening to this BNS segment, my first thought immediately was "Manoah is just trying to find a specialist who will diagnose him with an injury so he can go on the IL and continue collecting major league pay and service time instead of grinding it out on that minors salary."

 

The very next part of the segment, Blake Murphy wonders why Manoah's camp hasn't pushed back against the Jays not putting him on IL if he's still reporting physical symptoms. BNS responds with "I'm not sure why you would assume that hasn't happened, I would think that it probably has happened already."

 

The Manoah mystery is over everyone. Manoah thinks he's too good to be grinding it out in the minors, is seeking out a specialist that is willing to diagnose him with something and is having trouble (because he isn't actually hurt he just thinks he's too good for the minors), and the Jays are challenging him to find a specialist who will say he's injured while they continue to (rightfully) play hardball with placing him on IL.

 

Wow so that actually makes a s*** ton of sense and clears up whats happening.

[Olerud363]

Such a weird year. Teo and Vlad have the exact same wRC+

 

How is this even possible? Vlad has a bb/k of like 58/85 Teoscar 31/178

 

Vlad has literally put 100 more balls in play and walked twice as much and yet the outcomes are the same.

 

Scanning fangraphs Vlad actually pulls the ball more, their hard hit rates are similar and the only significant difference is ground ball rate (Vlad 47 Teoscar 41).

 

The ground ball rate explains some of it but it has to be spray angle on fly balls that explains the whole thing.

 

Need to start including spray angle in the stats, and list spray angle on ground balls and fly balls separately. The board has talked about this endlessly but it seems like the explanation has to be Vlad is just hitting an insane number of 388 foot fly balls to center and while he 'pull dat ball' on the ground he can't pull it in the air, and needs a swing overhall.

[mphenhef]

How is this even possible? Vlad has a bb/k of like 58/85 Teoscar 31/178

 

Vlad has literally put 100 more balls in play and walked twice as much and yet the outcomes are the same.

 

Scanning fangraphs Vlad actually pulls the ball more, their hard hit rates are similar and the only significant difference is ground ball rate (Vlad 47 Teoscar 41).

 

The ground ball rate explains some of it but it has to be spray angle on fly balls that explains the whole thing.

 

Need to start including spray angle in the stats, and list spray angle on ground balls and fly balls separately. The board has talked about this endlessly but it seems like the explanation has to be Vlad is just hitting an insane number of 388 foot fly balls to center and while he 'pull dat ball' on the ground he can't pull it in the air, and needs a swing overhall.

 

Vlad has some weirdness going on with spin off the bat or something like that. His flyballs routinely go less far than they should based on launch angle and velocity. Chris Black had a twitter thread on it about a month ago I think.

[Laika]

How is this even possible? Vlad has a bb/k of like 58/85 Teoscar 31/178

 

Vlad has literally put 100 more balls in play and walked twice as much and yet the outcomes are the same.

 

Scanning fangraphs Vlad actually pulls the ball more, their hard hit rates are similar and the only significant difference is ground ball rate (Vlad 47 Teoscar 41).

 

The ground ball rate explains some of it but it has to be spray angle on fly balls that explains the whole thing.

 

Need to start including spray angle in the stats, and list spray angle on ground balls and fly balls separately. The board has talked about this endlessly but it seems like the explanation has to be Vlad is just hitting an insane number of 388 foot fly balls to center and while he 'pull dat ball' on the ground he can't pull it in the air, and needs a swing overhall.

 

I'm not even sure anymore that this is it

 

anecdotally, I don't remember a huge amount of warning track flyouts to CF or RF. Sure, he hits a number of them but it's not like this is repeatedly happening.

 

No, the failures tend to be lazy groundballs or double plays or cheezy pop ups.

 

So hard to fix him but I think it's just mental. He needs to:

 

- trust his instincts

- get started earlier

- swing harder

- try to homer or turn the ball to dust all the time

 

My gut says he is just stuck in a glass case of emotions in his head all the time. In between pitches, trying to be perfect, trying to pull line drives or serve singles into right field. Overthinking everything. Guessing and committing to swings without really seeing the ball first.

[Olerud363]

Vlad has some weirdness going on with spin off the bat or something like that. His flyballs routinely go less far than they should based on launch angle and velocity. Chris Black had a twitter thread on it about a month ago I think.

 

Interesting. I thought about that and was scanning the exit velocity box scores but at first glance Vlad's distances did make sense.

 

A lot of times he was hitting balls at like 100-105, 18-22 degress, to center, and they were being caught.

 

Other plays would hit the same exit-v, but at 27 degrees and they'd be 420 foot homeruns.

[Stangstag]

I'm not even sure anymore that this is it

 

anecdotally, I don't remember a huge amount of warning track flyouts to CF or RF. Sure, he hits a number of them but it's not like this is repeatedly happening.

 

No, the failures tend to be lazy groundballs or double plays or cheezy pop ups.

 

So hard to fix him but I think it's just mental. He needs to:

 

- trust his instincts

- get started earlier

- swing harder

- try to homer or turn the ball to dust all the time

 

My gut says he is just stuck in a glass case of emotions in his head all the time. In between pitches, trying to be perfect, trying to pull line drives or serve singles into right field. Overthinking everything. Guessing and committing to swings without really seeing the ball first.

 

Nope its just bad luck

[Laika]

Nope its just bad luck

 

Completely possible

 

Or it WAS just bad luck and at some point festered into a mental issue

 

The repeated groundouts and GIDP in any clutch situation or with anybody on base...

[glory]

Not sure. DickPole came in hot and said he put big money down on Jays getting 95 Ws. I don't think he is in the money on that one.

 

Such a weird year. Teo and Vlad have the exact same wRC+, and Gabby Moreno has outslugged Kirk.

 

Today begins the final push. Go Jays!

 

Vlad, Springer, Varsho, and Kirk have a 5.6 WAR combined this season. A lot of teams have had injuries, but the Jays have had ridiculous underachievement combined with good health (until recently with Bo and others). Between that and Manoah’s implosion, it’s actually a bit of a shock that they are playing meaningful baseball in the final 2 weeks of September.

[bones10]

Nope its just bad luck

 

The optimist in me says he can still go on a heater and carry this team

[Brownie19]

Nope its just bad luck

 

You keep saying this sarcastically like luck isn't a significant component of the outcomes in baseball. How come?

[Stangstag]

You keep saying this sarcastically like luck isn't a significant component of the outcomes in baseball. How come?

 

Because I don’t think its bad luck when it goes on for this long, and when multiple players on the team are having the same issues.

 

I like Laika’s explanation

[Stangstag]

The optimist in me says he can still go on a heater and carry this team

 

Obviously he can, but its not going to magically just happen. He has to change his approach and actually decide what he wants to do at the plate instead of just swinging at every strike

[Spanky99]

Because I don’t think its bad luck when it goes on for this long, and when multiple players on the team are having the same issues.

 

I like Laika’s explanation

 

I'm going to roll with Tango on this one.

[Laika]

I'm going to roll with Tango on this one.

 

huh

[Olerud363]

Because I donÂ’t think its bad luck when it goes on for this long, and when multiple players on the team are having the same issues.

 

I like LaikaÂ’s explanation

 

Vlad has 100 less strike-outs than Teoscar yet they have the same wRC+. Luck? Teoscar is hitting more long fly balls. Then compare Vlad21 to Vlad23 the difference is insane.

 

If it is luck it like -- guys can go from 35 400 foot fly balls to 16 just by random luck in the launch angle....

 

Hit over 400 feet - Teoscar leads 20-16

Hit over 380 feet - Teoscar leads 30-26

Hit over 360 feet - Teoscar leads 46-41

Hit over 300 feet - Tied at 102

Hit over 200 feet - Vlad leads 183 to 167

Hit over 100 feet - Vlad leads 249 to 226

Hit over 0 feet - Vlad leads 448 to 369

 

This brings up another question. How the f*** does a guy who hit 48 homers 2 years go only have 41 hits over 360 feet this year? Vlad 23 vs Vlad 21 (season has 20 games or left so Vlad 23 can add to his totals still)

 

Hits over 400 feet Vlad21 35-16

Hits over 380 feet Vlad21 53-26

Hits over 360 feet Vlad21 72-41

[wilko]

Not sure if anyone else caught BNS appearance on Jays Talk Plus yesterday, but he cleared up a lot of the confusion surrounding the Manoah situation to the point where it's pretty easy to infer what's going on at this point.

 

Quote from BNS yesterday: "My understanding is Manoah's going to have some further testing done, that's going to happen sometime soon. Manoah has reported some physical symptoms related to his quad, back and knee and wants to get those checked out, and it sounds like the Blue Jays are on board with him getting those things checked out. But at this point no injury has been found, and Manoah is going to continue visiting specialists and see where that leads."

 

Before I continued listening to this BNS segment, my first thought immediately was "Manoah is just trying to find a specialist who will diagnose him with an injury so he can go on the IL and continue collecting major league pay and service time instead of grinding it out on that minors salary."

 

The very next part of the segment, Blake Murphy wonders why Manoah's camp hasn't pushed back against the Jays not putting him on IL if he's still reporting physical symptoms. BNS responds with "I'm not sure why you would assume that hasn't happened, I would think that it probably has happened already."

 

The Manoah mystery is over everyone. Manoah thinks he's too good to be grinding it out in the minors, is seeking out a specialist that is willing to diagnose him with something and is having trouble (because he isn't actually hurt he just thinks he's too good for the minors), and the Jays are challenging him to find a specialist who will say he's injured while they continue to (rightfully) play hardball with placing him on IL.

 

Quad, back and knee. It stems from carrying an extra 95 lbs into spring training.

[Laika]

Vlad has 100 less strike-outs than Teoscar yet they have the same wRC+. Luck? Teoscar is hitting more long fly balls. Then compare Vlad21 to Vlad23 the difference is insane.

 

If it is luck it like -- guys can go from 35 400 foot fly balls to 16 just by random luck in the launch angle....

 

Hit over 400 feet - Teoscar leads 20-16

Hit over 380 feet - Teoscar leads 30-26

Hit over 360 feet - Teoscar leads 46-41

Hit over 300 feet - Tied at 102

Hit over 200 feet - Vlad leads 183 to 167

Hit over 100 feet - Vlad leads 249 to 226

Hit over 0 feet - Vlad leads 448 to 369

 

This brings up another question. How the f*** does a guy who hit 48 homers 2 years go only have 41 hits over 360 feet this year? Vlad 23 vs Vlad 21 (season has 20 games or left so Vlad 23 can add to his totals still)

 

Hits over 400 feet Vlad21 35-16

Hits over 380 feet Vlad21 53-26

Hits over 360 feet Vlad21 72-41

 

It's insane, man

 

The decline is insane.

 

Here is one tiny slice of hopium - Vlad's wRC+ right now (age 24) is the same as Acuna's last year (his age 24).

[Olerud363]

Hits over 400 feet Vlad21 35-16

Hits over 380 feet Vlad21 53-26

Hits over 360 feet Vlad21 72-41

 

So basically my first theory about Vlad hitting 385 foot fly balls to center all the time is completely stupid and wrong, he actually hardly hits 380 foot flyballs at all, like at half the rate of his former self.

[Brownie19]

Because I don’t think its bad luck when it goes on for this long, and when multiple players on the team are having the same issues.

 

I like Laika’s explanation

 

That's fair. I would never say it's "all bad luck" - but there's probably a significant portion that is, which, as Laika said, may have lead to a variety of other issues/factors.

[jaysblue]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, 15-18 over 2 seasons.

 

Haha you just said $15-18M for one season. Stop changing your words around you dingleberry haha.

[MikeM3]

Vlad, Springer, Varsho, and Kirk have a 5.6 WAR combined this season. A lot of teams have had injuries, but the Jays have had ridiculous underachievement combined with good health (until recently with Bo and others). Between that and Manoah’s implosion, it’s actually a bit of a shock that they are playing meaningful baseball in the final 2 weeks of September.

 

We gotta be up there in terms of pitching health and that's especially important because we have no depth

[jaysblue]

AAV? That seems a bit lofty

 

Maybe 2 years at an AAV of $8M or $9M

 

he is throwing well enough but the velo is still declined

 

Nah, that's really light. If Ryu came back and had a 5 something ERA, probably would get a 1 year deal at that amount.

 

Kyle Gibson got $10M and he sucks. Ryu has actually pitched well since coming back and has the pedigree of years where he has been solid. He'll get above $10M easily in this market. $15M being the max but probably see him settling for something more around $12M.

[Spanky99]

Haha you just said $15-18M for one season.

 

No I didn't? Guaranteed money with a buyout read it again, meat. Honestly thought you meant multiple years, 2.

[Stangstag]

It's insane, man

 

The decline is insane.

 

Here is one tiny slice of hopium - Vlad's wRC+ right now (age 24) is the same as Acuna's last year (his age 24).

 

Acuna was coming back from an ACL tear though after missing a whole year lol

[thatoneguy]

Not sure if anyone else caught BNS appearance on Jays Talk Plus yesterday, but he cleared up a lot of the confusion surrounding the Manoah situation to the point where it's pretty easy to infer what's going on at this point.

 

Quote from BNS yesterday: "My understanding is Manoah's going to have some further testing done, that's going to happen sometime soon. Manoah has reported some physical symptoms related to his quad, back and knee and wants to get those checked out, and it sounds like the Blue Jays are on board with him getting those things checked out. But at this point no injury has been found, and Manoah is going to continue visiting specialists and see where that leads."

 

Before I continued listening to this BNS segment, my first thought immediately was "Manoah is just trying to find a specialist who will diagnose him with an injury so he can go on the IL and continue collecting major league pay and service time instead of grinding it out on that minors salary."

 

The very next part of the segment, Blake Murphy wonders why Manoah's camp hasn't pushed back against the Jays not putting him on IL if he's still reporting physical symptoms. BNS responds with "I'm not sure why you would assume that hasn't happened, I would think that it probably has happened already."

 

The Manoah mystery is over everyone. Manoah thinks he's too good to be grinding it out in the minors, is seeking out a specialist that is willing to diagnose him with something and is having trouble (because he isn't actually hurt he just thinks he's too good for the minors), and the Jays are challenging him to find a specialist who will say he's injured while they continue to (rightfully) play hardball with placing him on IL.

 

What an egotistical, entitled POS. You’re a professional athlete, train/condition like one ffs.

[Laika]

Nah, that's really light. If Ryu came back and had a 5 something ERA, probably would get a 1 year deal at that amount.

 

Kyle Gibson got $10M and he sucks. Ryu has actually pitched well since coming back and has the pedigree of years where he has been solid. He'll get above $10M easily in this market. $15M being the max but probably see him settling for something more around $12M.

 

Drew Smyly made 22 starts in 2022 with a 3.47 ERA and he got 2/$19M

 

Ryu is old as f***

 

Gibson was a 2 WAR pitcher in 2022 and 3 WAR the year prior

[RustyTrombone]

Ryu will sign like a 1yr 12M dollar deal with a bad team, like maybe the Pirates or Royals, or Oakland who will look to flip him at the deadline for a lottery ticket.....

 

He aint getting a multi year deal at age 37/38 coming off TJ. No way. Hes not Verlander.

[Laika]

Ryu will sign like a 1yr 12M dollar deal with a bad team, like maybe the Pirates or Royals, or Oakland who will look to flip him at the deadline for a lottery ticket.....

 

He aint getting a multi year deal at age 37/38 coming off TJ. No way. Hes not Verlander.

 

He might get enough money to go home and pitch, actually...

[BlueBaller]

Not sure if anyone else caught BNS appearance on Jays Talk Plus yesterday, but he cleared up a lot of the confusion surrounding the Manoah situation to the point where it's pretty easy to infer what's going on at this point.

 

Quote from BNS yesterday: "My understanding is Manoah's going to have some further testing done, that's going to happen sometime soon. Manoah has reported some physical symptoms related to his quad, back and knee and wants to get those checked out, and it sounds like the Blue Jays are on board with him getting those things checked out. But at this point no injury has been found, and Manoah is going to continue visiting specialists and see where that leads."

 

Before I continued listening to this BNS segment, my first thought immediately was "Manoah is just trying to find a specialist who will diagnose him with an injury so he can go on the IL and continue collecting major league pay and service time instead of grinding it out on that minors salary."

 

The very next part of the segment, Blake Murphy wonders why Manoah's camp hasn't pushed back against the Jays not putting him on IL if he's still reporting physical symptoms. BNS responds with "I'm not sure why you would assume that hasn't happened, I would think that it probably has happened already."

 

The Manoah mystery is over everyone. Manoah thinks he's too good to be grinding it out in the minors, is seeking out a specialist that is willing to diagnose him with something and is having trouble (because he isn't actually hurt he just thinks he's too good for the minors), and the Jays are challenging him to find a specialist who will say he's injured while they continue to (rightfully) play hardball with placing him on IL.

 

Was what I thought when they called him right back up. Refusal.

[keggy]

Was what I thought when they called him right back up. Refusal.

 

People honestly thought that the front office was "figuring out" where to assign him. The guy hasn't thrown a professional pitch in a month, even the Angels aren't this incompetent.

 

Do the tests to shut him up, then it's time to come down hard. Management has completely lost control of the clubhouse.