Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Stangstag]

Cant wait to trade 4 years of Kirk or 6 years of Moreno so we can get 120 games out of Jansen the next two years before he bolts

 

Can’t wait to see you absolutely lose your s*** when Kirk is traded

[Terminator]

Can’t wait to see you absolutely lose your s*** when Kirk is traded

 

Yes you’ve made it very clear how you feel about Kirk and how Mexicans like him should be shipped down to Miami (which doesn’t even make sense). But if he’s traded, I won’t be mad if the return is fair for our 23 year old All-Star and Silver Slugger finalist. I just find it hard to believe that someone can offer up a package for a player that talented. A third of the league doesn’t even have someone on the roster as good as Kirk is.

 

The always hurt Four Eyes seems like an easier guy to move in a deal and if we f*** it up we’d only have him for 2 years anyway. But what do I know? I’ve only been following the game for 50+ years. And at least 8 of those years were sober too (court mandated but still).

[Spanky99]

lol

[Olerud363]

This is my mindset right now as well. It’s not that I don’t like Kirk. He’s just the most logical Catcher to trade to impact the roster in a meaningful way.

 

Impacting the roster in a meaningful way is right, but that could also be negative. You are trading the guy with the highest ceiling. Kirk gets in a bit better shape and he could be a 6 WAR guy if he doesn't fade late in the season and can play more games at catcher.

 

Also if Kirk is a big risk because of body type why are the other teams going to be giving up something meaningful for him? Wouldn't they prefer Jansen anyway for the reasons some people on the board do?

[Olerud363]

Impacting the roster in a meaningful way is right, but that could also be negative. You are trading the guy with the highest ceiling. Kirk gets in a bit better shape and he could be a 6 WAR guy if he doesn't fade late in the season and can play more games at catcher.

 

Also if Kirk is a big risk because of body type why are the other teams going to be giving up something meaningful for him? Wouldn't they prefer Jansen anyway for the reasons some people on the board do?

 

Atkins trying to get rid of Kirk for a 5 WAR young outfielder: We have a fat little guy who our fans think peaked at 23, he's got an 80 bat and stats like a young Joe Mauer but you can't trust any of that. We're going to keep our 27 year old injury prone power hitting catcher instead. Guy's got a good body. You just can't trust the fat guys so we are getting rid of ours. Anyway you guys want to give up young a 5 tool left handed hitting athletic outfielder for our fading fat guy? That would be great thanks.

[Olerud363]

Atkins trying to get rid of Kirk for a 5 WAR young outfielder: We have a fat little guy who our fans think peaked at 23, he's got an 80 bat and stats like a young Joe Mauer but you can't trust any of that. We're going to keep our 27 year old injury prone power hitting catcher instead. Guy's got a good body. You just can't trust the fat guys so we are getting rid of ours. Anyway you guys want to give up young a 5 tool left handed hitting athletic outfielder for our fading fat guy? That would be great thanks.

 

On a more serious note, people have mentioned a few young left handed hitting outfielders with 4+ control remaining. Are there any lefty hitting outfielders that are match for Jansen instead? Similar value, 2 years control remaining?

[Jimcanuck]

Lol JimCanuck, famous Jays insider who has sources close to Atkins

 

It's simply common sense man, why would the Jays trade Kirk or Moreno and take the risk of Jano walking in 2 yrs.

[glory]

On a more serious note, people have mentioned a few young left handed hitting outfielders with 4+ control remaining. Are there any lefty hitting outfielders that are match for Jansen instead? Similar value, 2 years control remaining?

 

If you think his bat is fixable, then Trent Grisham could be an option. Three years of control left, LH bat, legitimately good defensive CF, but bat was bad in 2022. Padres could probably use an upgrade at CA, and I believe they are/were considering Tatis to CF. I don't think the Cards move Nootbaar or Carlson for Jansen, and while Tyler O'Neill probably makes sense as a similar value return, the fit isn't great for the Jays (RH, not a CF). Don't think the Astros or Guardians have anyone that fits that criteria. Like I said hard to find a good deal for Jansen since only contending teams would want to trade for him, and contending teams aren't likely to trade good players with 2-3 years of control unless it's from a position of surplus.

[Brownie19]

It's simply common sense man, why would the Jays trade Kirk or Moreno and take the risk of Jano walking in 2 yrs.

 

I'm not sure I agree Jim. If we trade Kirk or Moreno and get back a young stud CFer with similar control, then we'd have that stud, plus either Kirk or Moreno still. I don't think that type of moves makes it mandatory to immediately sign Jansen long term (or to do so before you make the trade).

[Laika]

Jeff McNeil - too good but 2 years control

Verdugo - 2 years control

Winker - 1 year control

Bryan Reynolds - 3 years control, Pitt won't want a C with less control

Ian Happ - 1 year of control

Santander - no trade fit

Mike Yastrzemski - 3 years control but 32

Grisham - 3 years control

Bellinger - no value, one year control, expensive

[Jimcanuck]

I'm not sure I agree Jim. If we trade Kirk or Moreno and get back a young stud CFer with similar control, then we'd have that stud, plus either Kirk or Moreno still. I don't think that type of moves makes it mandatory to immediately sign Jansen long term (or to do so before you make the trade).

 

It's about maximizing value. If the Jays and Jansen can come to a reasonable extension agreement, then maximizing value is to trade Kirk or Moreno. If they can't, the maximum value is by trading Jansen. Extending Jansen and trading Kirk or Moreno can be done in parallel, the trade being the conditional piece.

 

Of course, if someone wants to overpay for Kirk or Moreno, then you just do the deal, extension or no.

 

Jays are in a unique situation of having 3 starter calibre MLB catchers, and hence value each catcher less than other teams. They can parlay that into a fairly significant team improvement, even more so if they look after the player salary end at the same time.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Jimcanuck

[Laika]

It's funny to see people scoff at Tyler O'Neill

 

Cardinals fans (and fans of other teams) very likely look at Jansen's Fangraphs page and RIGHTLY categorize him as a guy who cannot stay healthy and has been a fringe-average hitter throughout his career with one partial MLB season of really good offensive performance.

 

The Blue Jays are quite simply not going to get trade value for Danny Jansen as if he is a 4 WAR player. They just won't. Because he's never done that.

 

Tyler O'Neill in 2021 alone put up almost as much WAR as Jansen has in his entire career.

 

Swapping Jansen for O'Neill improves Toronto is basically every way. Defensively, on the bases, offensively...

[jaysblue]

If you think his bat is fixable, then Trent Grisham could be an option. Three years of control left, LH bat, legitimately good defensive CF, but bat was bad in 2022. Padres could probably use an upgrade at CA, and I believe they are/were considering Tatis to CF. I don't think the Cards move Nootbaar or Carlson for Jansen, and while Tyler O'Neill probably makes sense as a similar value return, the fit isn't great for the Jays (RH, not a CF). Don't think the Astros or Guardians have anyone that fits that criteria. Like I said hard to find a good deal for Jansen since only contending teams would want to trade for him, and contending teams aren't likely to trade good players with 2-3 years of control unless it's from a position of surplus.

 

Tyler O'Neill is Canadian. Good for marketing.

[Stangstag]

If you think his bat is fixable, then Trent Grisham could be an option. Three years of control left, LH bat, legitimately good defensive CF, but bat was bad in 2022. Padres could probably use an upgrade at CA, and I believe they are/were considering Tatis to CF. I don't think the Cards move Nootbaar or Carlson for Jansen, and while Tyler O'Neill probably makes sense as a similar value return, the fit isn't great for the Jays (RH, not a CF). Don't think the Astros or Guardians have anyone that fits that criteria. Like I said hard to find a good deal for Jansen since only contending teams would want to trade for him, and contending teams aren't likely to trade good players with 2-3 years of control unless it's from a position of surplus.

 

I’d do Jansen for Grisham. Kirk for Grisham no f***ing way.

[jaysblue]

Jeff McNeil - too good but 2 years control

Verdugo - 2 years control

Winker - 1 year control

Bryan Reynolds - 3 years control, Pitt won't want a C with less control

Ian Happ - 1 year of control

Santander - no trade fit

Mike Yastrzemski - 3 years control but 32

Grisham - 3 years control

Bellinger - no value, one year control, expensive

 

Do you think Bellinger is possibly non-tendered by the Dodgers?

[Brownie19]

It's about maximizing value. If the Jays and Jansen can come to a reasonable extension agreement, then maximizing value is to trade Kirk or Moreno. If they can't, the maximum value is by trading Jansen. Extending Jansen and trading Kirk or Moreno can be done in parallel, the trade being the conditional piece.

 

Of course, if someone wants to overpay for Kirk or Moreno, then you just do the deal, extension or no.

 

Jays are in a unique situation of having 3 starter calibre MLB catchers, and hence value each catcher less than other teams. They can parlay that into a fairly significant team improvement, even more so if they look after the player salary end at the same time.

 

That's fair. No harm in having discussions with Jansen to see what it would take to extend him. And yes, if he's willing to sign a sweetheart extension then that would impact the decision of which catcher to move (it would also make him much more appealing to other teams - although that's probably dirty pool to extend him and then trade him).

[Laika]

Do you think Bellinger is possibly non-tendered by the Dodgers?

 

Yeah I could see it.

 

They might think they can construct a roster that is simply better than one with him on it. It's also a bit of an awkward situation and clubhouse distraction.

 

Obviously I don't really think they would non-tender him to save money. It's the Dodgers... they'd pay $19M for a platoon player without worrying too much.

[MikeM3]

It's funny to see people scoff at Tyler O'Neill

 

Cardinals fans (and fans of other teams) very likely look at Jansen's Fangraphs page and RIGHTLY categorize him as a guy who cannot stay healthy and has been a fringe-average hitter throughout his career with one partial MLB season of really good offensive performance.

 

The Blue Jays are quite simply not going to get trade value for Danny Jansen as if he is a 4 WAR player. They just won't. Because he's never done that.

 

Tyler O'Neill in 2021 alone put up almost as much WAR as Jansen has in his entire career.

 

Swapping Jansen for O'Neill improves Toronto is basically every way. Defensively, on the bases, offensively...

 

Not interested in any RHB who is susceptible to sliders. Shift is gone next year. Find me fat LHBs.

[Olerud363]

Do you think Bellinger is possibly non-tendered by the Dodgers?

 

I think he will almost certainly be non-tendered. He has been very bad for 2 years. Only tendered last year because they thought 2021 could have been a fluke.

[Captain_Obvious]

It's funny to see people scoff at Tyler O'Neill

 

Cardinals fans (and fans of other teams) very likely look at Jansen's Fangraphs page and RIGHTLY categorize him as a guy who cannot stay healthy and has been a fringe-average hitter throughout his career with one partial MLB season of really good offensive performance.

 

The Blue Jays are quite simply not going to get trade value for Danny Jansen as if he is a 4 WAR player. They just won't. Because he's never done that.

 

Tyler O'Neill in 2021 alone put up almost as much WAR as Jansen has in his entire career.

 

Swapping Jansen for O'Neill improves Toronto is basically every way. Defensively, on the bases, offensively...

 

It absolutely does not. O'Neill was not good last year, suffered leg injuries (not HBP), and his production can be mostly matched by Gurriel who is worse defensively but better offensively. O'Neill has been injury prone as well (only full season is 2021). Trading Jansen for someone who produced half Jansen's WAR in 50% more PA in 2022 is stupid.

[Olerud363]

Obviously I don't really think they would non-tender him to save money. It's the Dodgers... they'd pay $19M for a platoon player without worrying too much.

 

Isn't their excess payroll taxed, and they lose draft picks and signing money? Unless they are at a point where they've already maxed the penalties out, you think there would incentive to avoid wasting 20 million.

[John_Havok]

It absolutely does not. O'Neill was not good last year, suffered leg injuries (not HBP), and his production can be mostly matched by Gurriel who is worse defensively but better offensively. O'Neill has been injury prone as well (only full season is 2021). Trading Jansen for someone who produced half Jansen's WAR in 50% more PA in 2022 is stupid.

 

I'm beginning to undertand that your posting name is one of the greatest ironies out there right now.

[Olerud363]

If you think his bat is fixable, then Trent Grisham could be an option. Three years of control left, LH bat, legitimately good defensive CF, but bat was bad in 2022. Padres could probably use an upgrade at CA, and I believe they are/were considering Tatis to CF. I don't think the Cards move Nootbaar or Carlson for Jansen, and while Tyler O'Neill probably makes sense as a similar value return, the fit isn't great for the Jays (RH, not a CF). Don't think the Astros or Guardians have anyone that fits that criteria. Like I said hard to find a good deal for Jansen since only contending teams would want to trade for him, and contending teams aren't likely to trade good players with 2-3 years of control unless it's from a position of surplus.

 

Grisham would be interesting. His bat actually seems similar to Jansen's but he is at a down point with rates similar to what Jansen had in 2020.

[Laika]

It absolutely does not. O'Neill was not good last year, suffered leg injuries (not HBP), and his production can be mostly matched by Gurriel who is worse defensively but better offensively. O'Neill has been injury prone as well (only full season is 2021). Trading Jansen for someone who produced half Jansen's WAR in 50% more PA in 2022 is stupid.

 

No.

 

Gurriel and O'Neill have identical career wRC+ but O'Neill has a much better demonstrated ceiling. So I would say O'Neill is better offensively. BaseRunning is part of offense and O'Neill blows Gurriel out of the water. Defense is not close at all; fringe CF vs fringe DH.

 

O'Neill even had a higher xwOBA in 2022 than Gurriel; you can argue that O'Neill was a better hitter results aside.

 

I really think O'Neill has a lot of positive regression in 2023. He is in his physical prime and his advanced stats were quite good in 2022. He was unlucky. Yes, injuries might be a thing that he is prone to but Jansen is in the same boat. TO broke out in 2021 and then improves his K-BB significantly the next year...

 

I didn't say I would want to do Jansen straight up but the gap between Jansen and O'Neill is not big.

[L54]

On a team full of holes and limited spending abilities with WS aspirations it makes no sense to use your most valuable trade chip on a player that is redundant on the roster.

 

O’Neil has had one good season and that’s the only year he has over 400 AB’s.

 

Jansen doubled his WAR in 100 fewer AB’s this year

 

The team has enough RHH outfielders and I hate the low BA high K profile.

 

O’Neil is an extremely high variance player. He could put up 6 WAR next year or 1 WAR. The Jays aren’t in the position where the need to hit home runs with player acquisitions, they just need production they can count on.

[Laika]

On a team full of holes and limited spending abilities with WS aspirations it makes no sense to use your most valuable trade chip on a player that is redundant on the roster.

 

O’Neil has had one good season and that’s the only year he has over 400 AB’s.

 

Jansen doubled his WAR in 100 fewer AB’s this year

 

The team has enough RHH outfielders and I hate the low BA high K profile.

 

O’Neil is an extremely high variance player. He could put up 6 WAR next year or 1 WAR. The Jays aren’t in the position where the need to hit home runs with player acquisitions, they just need production they can count on.

 

I would prefer various other trades but finding a dance partner for Kirk or Moreno is much harder.

 

And holding three catchers like this is probably a woefully inefficient use of resources.

 

Even in his down season O'Neill played okay, like a league average corner outfielder.

[L54]

If that is the rationale, and it's a logical one, then Kirk is the one to move because he's far more likely to get the type of return that would help the team short/long term over whatever Jansen will bring back. The reason to trade Jansen is almost entirely due to years of control. He has the least. Age is another factor, but honestly, given how unpredictable Kirk's aging curve will be due to his body type, I'm not even sure that's as big of a deal. If you can get Jansen on a team friendly extension, and then trade Kirk for a SP/CF/whatever that will significantly improve the club short and long term, then that's not a bad option at all. Really depends on what Kirk's market is right now.

 

Hard to say really IMO. If I could trade Jano for an SP with 2 years left and like 2-3 projected WAR I’d rather do that and keep Kirk.

[L54]

I would prefer various other trades but finding a dance partner for Kirk or Moreno is much harder.

 

And holding three catchers like this is probably a woefully inefficient use of resources.

 

Even in his down season O'Neill played okay, like a league average corner outfielder.

 

I agree that keeping all three would wind up being a waste. I just don’t think Tyler O’Neil is the guy I would target is all.

 

I would also explore Moreno + another prospect for a starter. Moreno + Tiedemann would land you a front line starter with control.

[John_Havok]

I agree that keeping all three would wind up being a waste. I just don’t think Tyler O’Neil is the guy I would target is all.

 

I would also explore Moreno + another prospect for a starter. Moreno + Tiedemann would land you a front line starter with control.

 

Any teams out there shopping front line starters with control?

[Terminator]

It's funny to see people scoff at Tyler O'Neill

 

Cardinals fans (and fans of other teams) very likely look at Jansen's Fangraphs page and RIGHTLY categorize him as a guy who cannot stay healthy and has been a fringe-average hitter throughout his career with one partial MLB season of really good offensive performance.

 

The Blue Jays are quite simply not going to get trade value for Danny Jansen as if he is a 4 WAR player. They just won't. Because he's never done that.

 

Tyler O'Neill in 2021 alone put up almost as much WAR as Jansen has in his entire career.

 

Swapping Jansen for O'Neill improves Toronto is basically every way. Defensively, on the bases, offensively...

 

Jansen fanboys are some of the most unreasonable people in all of baseball. You just can’t reason with them.