Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[L54]

Okay okay how about Chad Kuhl? I just really wanna get out from the projected 4M Jansen will make and we need pitching

[Laika]

Okay okay how about Chad Kuhl? I just really wanna get out from the projected 4M Jansen will make and we need pitching

 

shut up

[L54]

shut up

 

That’s gonna be a no from me dog

[Brownie19]

It's just that Kirk's record of work, including minors is way more impressive than Jansen's and Kirk has a super high ceiling, especially if he could catch 120 games (his d-stats are knocked down by 50 DH games).

 

Perhaps I'm the one being illogical, but it just seems to me that guys with Kirk's hitting skills are pretty rare and have high ceilings. I've mentioned some names (Olerud, Mauer, Edgar Martinez), but here is another one. Roberto Alomar. Sort of a .290 hitter with single digit homerun power at Kirk's age, peaked as a .320 hitter with 25 homers.

 

Mistake I am making is forgetting all the guys who hit .290 with 15 homers good on base... more walks than strikeouts and failed, or peaked at 23.

 

There's no doubt that Kirk has elite bat to ball skills, but it's hard to ignore what Jansen's done too (who also had some massive offensive seasons in the minors). I'm still of the opinion that Moreno might be the 'right' guy to deal. He has the best combination of value and risk IMO. Can't wait to see what Atkins does.

[jaysblue]

In terms of the Rockies as a trading partner for Jansen, only guy I would roll the dice on would be Germán Márquez, though he even worries me. Under control for two more seasons at 15M in 2023 and a team option at 16M in 2024. Moving out of Coors could help and he could return to being a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher possibly. If you think he can be a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher or more, he would definitely be a nice add for the rotation. Or he could be Jose Berrios 2.0 next season.

 

Antonio Senzatela and Chad Kulh offer no upside whatsoever. Can easily sign FA starters and hold onto Jansen for another trade.

[Stangstag]

In terms of the Rockies as a trading partner for Jansen, only guy I would roll the dice on would be Germán Márquez, though he even worries me. Under control for two more seasons at 15M in 2023 and a team option at 16M in 2024. Moving out of Coors could help and he could return to being a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher possibly. If you think he can be a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher or more, he would definitely be a nice add for the rotation. Or he could be Jose Berrios 2.0 next season.

 

Antonio Senzatela and Chad Kulh offer no upside whatsoever. Can easily sign FA starters and hold onto Jansen for another trade.

 

How about Kirk for German and Bryant? Non-tender Teo, Bryant plays RF and then when Chapman leaves Bryant can play 3B for the remainder of his contract.

[jaysblue]

How about Kirk for German and Bryant? Non-tender Teo, Bryant plays RF and then when Chapman leaves Bryant can play 3B for the remainder of his contract.

 

Can the Blue Jays afford to pay another aging bat $164M over the next 6 years though?

 

I think Kris Bryant would be a great fit for the reasons you mentioned such as position flexibility and could move to third after Chapman leaves, though his contract is pretty steep for moving a player like Kirk with that controllability. I'm not even sure Bryant ever goes back to being a 7-8 WAR player like he was with the Cubs in 2015 and 2016. He likely settles in as a 4 WAR player at best moving forward. I don't think his trade value should be all that high given his age now, decline and contract.

 

Who can the Blue Jays sign as a FA for 6 years at $164M this offseason? Probably that money is best spent elsewhere instead on Bryant.

[Captain_Obvious]

Can the Blue Jays afford to pay another aging bat $164M over the next 6 years though?

 

I think Kris Bryant would be a great fit for the reasons you mentioned such as position flexibility and could move to third after Chapman leaves, though his contract is pretty steep for moving a player like Kirk with that controllability. I'm not even sure Bryant ever goes back to being a 7-8 WAR player like he was with the Cubs in 2015 and 2016. He likely settles in as a 4 WAR player at best moving forward. I don't think his trade value should be all that high given his age now, decline and contract.

Who can the Blue Jays sign as a FA for 6 years at $164M this offseason? Probably that money is best spent elsewhere instead on Bryant.

 

Swanson (probably for a little less AAS)

Rondon (probably for fewer years)

[Brownie19]

German is a pretty solid trade target right now. Coming off a 'down' year. He has 1 year + a club option remaining on his deal, so that fits our current window nicely. At $15.3M in 2023 (and $16M in 2024 if kept) he's perhaps a little pricey, which may actually reduce his value (to our advantage).

 

What's it take to get Marquez?

 

Could you get Marquez and Jordan Beck (or Zac Veen ) for Jansen? Maybe that's a bad idea as you could just re-sign Stripling for that kind of money and keep Jansen...

[Captain_Obvious]

German is a pretty solid trade target right now. Coming off a 'down' year. He has 1 year + a club option remaining on his deal, so that fits our current window nicely. At $15.3M in 2023 (and $16M in 2024 if kept) he's perhaps a little pricey, which may actually reduce his value (to our advantage).

 

What's it take to get Marquez?

 

Could you get Marquez and Jordan Beck (or Zac Veen ) for Jansen? Maybe that's a bad idea as you could just re-sign Stripling for that kind of money and keep Jansen...

 

Is Colorado even contending in the next couple of years? If not, they have no use for Jansen in the next couple years. They should probably be looking for prospects for their assets.

[jaysblue]

Swanson (probably for a little less AAS)

Rondon (probably for fewer years)

 

Yeah exactly. Would rather spend that money if available on Rondon or Swanson. Doesn't make sense trading valuable assets for a dead contract and aging asset like Bryant.

[Stangstag]

Is Colorado even contending in the next couple of years? If not, they have no use for Jansen in the next couple years. They should probably be looking for prospects for their assets.

 

They just extended their elite closer, Daniel Bard. Of course they’re contending

[Stangstag]

Yeah exactly. Would rather spend that money if available on Rondon or Swanson. Doesn't make sense trading valuable assets for a dead contract and aging asset like Bryant.

 

(My mock trade was a joke to get Term riled up)

[jaysblue]

German is a pretty solid trade target right now. Coming off a 'down' year. He has 1 year + a club option remaining on his deal, so that fits our current window nicely. At $15.3M in 2023 (and $16M in 2024 if kept) he's perhaps a little pricey, which may actually reduce his value (to our advantage).

 

What's it take to get Marquez?

 

Could you get Marquez and Jordan Beck (or Zac Veen ) for Jansen? Maybe that's a bad idea as you could just re-sign Stripling for that kind of money and keep Jansen...

 

If the Jays have the money like you said, Marquez would be a good tradetarget. Even still, his salary over the next two season isn't too bad. Some upside with him if he returns to being a 3-4 WAR pitcher or more since he'll only be 28 next season. Depends on what the Rockies expect in a trade.

[jaysblue]

They just extended their elite closer, Daniel Bard. Of course they’re contending

 

In that case, Bryant isn't going anywhere haha.

[Brownie19]

If the Jays have the money like you said, Marquez would be a good trade target. Even still, his salary over the next two season isn't too bad. Some upside with him if he returns to being a 3-4 WAR pitcher or more since he'll only be 28 next season. Depends on what the Rockies expect in a trade.

 

This just seems like a great opportunity to take advantage of the f***tards in Colorado's FO before Ownership smartens up and fires them. They should be rebuilding, they should want prospects. Is Orelvis too much for Marquez? What about like Robberse, Barger and Horwitz or some package like that?

[Terminator]

How about Kirk for German and Bryant? Non-tender Teo, Bryant plays RF and then when Chapman leaves Bryant can play 3B for the remainder of his contract.

 

I wouldn't take German and Bryant if they offered them to us for free. Bryant's contract is atrocious.

[Laika]

Is Colorado even contending in the next couple of years? If not, they have no use for Jansen in the next couple years. They should probably be looking for prospects for their assets.

 

they will definitely not contend

 

but they THINK they can contend lmao

[Olerud363]

As others have said, there is an argument to be made for all 3 of the catchers to be kept or traded. Maximize the next 2-3 years? Trade Moreno. Try to sustain contention for as long as possible? Keep the players with the most control (i.e. trade Jansen). Looking for the best return in general? Trade either Kirk or Moreno. There really isn't a "wrong" answer unless Atkins gets f***ed in a trade return, but of the 3 catchers, Jansen is the one where the likelihood of getting a return that instantly makes us say "that's it?" is much higher. No one is saying Jansen is the next great catcher in baseball, but a 2.6 WAR in less than half a season of PA's this season and a 4.5 WAR/140 wRC+ in his last 400 PA dating back to 2021 makes him a pretty valuable player even with the caveats (injury prone). On top of that, we have no idea what Moreno will eventually become and/or how long it will take for him to get there, and the next 2-3 years are essentially the team's best competitive window with this group. Not the easiest decision, but obviously, Atkins is in the driver's seat.

 

This is why I am in trade Jansen camp. "We have no idea what Moreno will become" is true and means he has a high ceiling.... really high ceiling. We have no idea if 2021 was real and the power drought of 2022 just a sample size fluke.

 

Kirk and Moreno have very high ceilings. Jansen not so much. Never trust an age 27 season. blaahhh... maybe I've just been reading too much 1980s Bill James.

[Captain_Obvious]

This is why I am in trade Jansen camp. "We have no idea what Moreno will become" is true and means he has a high ceiling.... really high ceiling. We have no idea if 2021 was real and the power drought of 2022 just a sample size fluke.

 

Kirk and Moreno have very high ceilings. Jansen not so much. Never trust an age 27 season. blaahhh... maybe I've just been reading too much 1980s Bill James.

 

I am in the camp for trading anyone who brings full value back and improves the team in the process. If Moreno brings back Corbin Carroll.. why not? They are at identical stages of their career and probably have similar potential. The only difference is position. Carroll's position is of higher need to the Blue Jays, and Arizona could really use a catcher of the future.

 

Similarly, trade Jansen if he brings back full value in a position of need. Not my idea, but seems like it is liked enough by all sides:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105658/

[goldbug103]

This is why I am in trade Jansen camp. "We have no idea what Moreno will become" is true and means he has a high ceiling.... really high ceiling. We have no idea if 2021 was real and the power drought of 2022 just a sample size fluke.

 

Kirk and Moreno have very high ceilings. Jansen not so much. Never trust an age 27 season. blaahhh... maybe I've just been reading too much 1980s Bill James.

 

I would trade Groundbollo for Ohtani if the latter accepted the trade and was agreeable to an extension. Jays rid themselves of a GB machine and get a superstar in return, one that hits LH and pitches lights out.

[Stangstag]

I would trade Groundbollo for Ohtani if the latter accepted the trade and was agreeable to an extension. Jays rid themselves of a GB machine and get a superstar in return, one that hits LH and pitches lights out.

 

Maybe throw Kirk in to sweeten the pot

[Olerud363]

I am in the camp for trading anyone who brings full value back and improves the team in the process. If Moreno brings back Corbin Carroll.. why not? They are at identical stages of their career and probably have similar potential. The only difference is position. Carroll's position is of higher need to the Blue Jays, and Arizona could really use a catcher of the future.

 

Similarly, trade Jansen if he brings back full value in a position of need. Not my idea, but seems like it is liked enough by all sides:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105658/

 

Corbin for Moreno would be great. It's too bad Moreno had a bit of a down year. I think the perceived difference between them might be too much right now, but it's a weird, because a hot couple of months from Moreno in Buffalo would have changed that.

 

Like Moreno spent almost 2 months in Toronto and played 20 something games. If he had stayed in Buffalo padding his stats he'd probably be ranked more highly. And in fact he is no longer even ranked on prospect lists because of time he spent mostly sitting in Toronto.

[Brownie19]

This is why I am in trade Jansen camp. "We have no idea what Moreno will become" is true and means he has a high ceiling.... really high ceiling. We have no idea if 2021 was real and the power drought of 2022 just a sample size fluke.

 

Kirk and Moreno have very high ceilings. Jansen not so much. Never trust an age 27 season. blaahhh... maybe I've just been reading too much 1980s Bill James.

 

It also means he has the highest risk and the lowest floor of the 3.

[The Iceman]

How about Kirk for German and Bryant? Non-tender Teo, Bryant plays RF and then when Chapman leaves Bryant can play 3B for the remainder of his contract.

 

Are you saying Teo has ZERO value?

In what universe would this be??

[Stangstag]

Are you saying Teo has ZERO value?

In what universe would this be??

 

Im not sure tbh. I thought he had value but i’ve heard other people talk like no team would take him in a trade since his salary will be like 15 mil

 

Either way I was joking in that post

[Olerud363]

It also means he has the highest risk and the lowest floor of the 3.

 

Totally. His past performance is small sample size so has high range of outcomes.

[Brownie19]

Totally. His past performance is small sample size so has high range of outcomes.

 

What do you think the odds are that he's better than 2022 Kirk? (or just better than Kirk in general)

What do you think the odds are that he's better than Jansen?

Edited November 1, 2022 by Brownie19

[jaysblue]

Im not sure tbh. I thought he had value but i’ve heard other people talk like no team would take him in a trade since his salary will be like 15 mil

 

Either way I was joking in that post

 

Jays definitely tender him a contract for 2023, even if his salary is going to be around $15M. His trade value however is probably limited unless a team who is looking to contend and is in dire needs a corner OF power bat.

 

I think Teo bounces back big in 2023. It's a contract year and I think we might see some new career highs in offensive categories. He's going to be extremely motivated and will want to sign that one big life changing contract in his career that sets his family up for the rest of their lives. Hopefully he puts up a 4-5 WAR season in 2023!

[Terminator]

Are you saying Teo has ZERO value?

In what universe would this be??

 

Absolutely insane isn't it? Dude hits 2 home runs in an elimination game and the casual fans want to non-tender him