Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Grant77]

 

MLB Trade Rumors

@mlbtraderumors

 

Blue Jays Deny Mets' Request To Interview Mark Shapiro https://t.co/behbpRN7dk?amp=1

 

Good decision.

[Krylian]

Mets are getting skunked repeatedly

[The Cats Ass]

This is how I see the Catcher position playing out for the next year and a bit for the Jays.

 

The Jays have 3 MLB capable catchers but the guy with by far has the highest upside isn't ready. Moreno probably won't be ready to be on a WS caliber team this year. as the starting catcher. Jansen seems to be the guy that fits best with the "win-now we know who he is" role as primary catcher this year so you keep him this year and possibly trade him next off season if Moreno looks ready. Kirk has the highest trade value out of him and McGuire so you trade Kirk this off season and keep McGuire. If Moreno looks to be a capable back-up around the trade deadline you bring him up and move McGuire. If not you just keep McGuire.

 

Jansen and Kirk need to be moved if they are going to be pushed out by Moreno in 2023. A lot of MLB teams will see both of them as starting Catchers or at least a 1A/1B type guy so you need to maximize their value. I am probably missing a few points...this seems to be the best way to maximize the depth of our catcher situation right now.

 

If Moreno's bat is as advertised I think we should keep Jansen and start him the majority of the time at catcher. This would allow Moreno to still catch some, but keep his bat in the lineup more with less wear and tear on the body. Moreno catches 2 starters, Jansen catches 3. Moreno would get ~60 games behind the plate, ~90 at 3B. Jansen ~100 behind the plate.

[wilko]

Good decision.

 

Doesn't make sense anyway... He just signed an extension, and if he went to the Mets it would basically be a demotion of position.

[Stangstag]

Doesn't make sense anyway... He just signed an extension, and if he went to the Mets it would basically be a demotion of position.

 

Probably a higher salary though. Depends what's more important to him

[glory]

[Abomination]

 

Thanks for a great year Marcus! You'll be missed.

[jerb]

[wilko]

 

[Jimcanuck]

Gurriel nominated for a Gold Glove. WTF

[bendera3]

Gurriel nominated for a Gold Glove. WTF

 

He hit over 20 dingers so he qualifies.

[InsideThePark]

Gurriel nominated for a Gold Glove. WTF

 

2nd year in a row

[max silver]

Gurriel nominated for a Gold Glove. WTF

 

If you only watched the last few months of the season started to resemble a competent outfielder instead of a little leaguer playing outfield for the first time. Somehow Gurriel actually managed 7 DRS and was nearly even by UZR. Statcast OAA paints a completely different picture at -7 OAA though.

[TwistedLogic]

Boras is probably frothing at the mouth for this upcoming offseason.

 

I'm already exhausted just imagining how many ******** hot takes and annoying statements he's going to interject during the CBA negotiations.

 

[Key22]

Marcus going with Boras means that he likely won't choose California just because he lives there. Ie; the hometown thing may not factor as much as getting paid well. If anything, that may give Toronto a better shot at signing him. However, San Francisco has a ton of payroll space too. And they're a winning team who will be looking to add. Still, not sure how we improve our WAR by losing Marcus and replacing him with a AAAA player in Biggio. Team needs to add wins to the 91.

 

Losing 13-14 wins losing Macus and Robbie - we need to get those 13 back and probably add another 8 to account for a down year or injury. Biggio - meh.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Should the Jays really be handing out another $100,000,000+ multi year contract to a 30+ year old position player?

 

I love Semien, but they will hamstring themselves if they keep doing that.

[Jimcanuck]

Marcus going with Boras means that he likely won't choose California just because he lives there. Ie; the hometown thing may not factor as much as getting paid well. If anything, that may give Toronto a better shot at signing him. However, San Francisco has a ton of payroll space too. And they're a winning team who will be looking to add. Still, not sure how we improve our WAR by losing Marcus and replacing him with a AAAA player in Biggio. Team needs to add wins to the 91.

 

Losing 13-14 wins losing Macus and Robbie - we need to get those 13 back and probably add another 8 to account for a down year or injury. Biggio - meh.

 

Biggio, $600K. Semien, $25M. Jays have pitching needs. Look at bigger picture.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Full year of Berrios could bring more WAR

Full year of Manoah could bring more WAR

Full year of healthy Biggio could bring more WAR

Full year of non-s***** Jansen and healthy Kirk could bring more WAR

 

Whoever replaces Ray and Matz in the rotation may not combine for 8-9 WAR, but should replace some of it

 

Also, the you sure as f*** hope the bullpen doesn't leave as much WAR on the table this next season as it did last season.

[Brownie19]

Still, not sure how we improve our WAR by losing Marcus and replacing him with a AAAA player in Biggio. Team needs to add wins to the 91.

 

Losing 13-14 wins losing Macus and Robbie - we need to get those 13 back and probably add another 8 to account for a down year or injury. Biggio - meh.

 

Jesus Christ man.

[RobinThicc]

Gurriel jr could be intriguing to the A's lol

[John_Havok]

Marcus going with Boras means that he likely won't choose California just because he lives there. Ie; the hometown thing may not factor as much as getting paid well. If anything, that may give Toronto a better shot at signing him. However, San Francisco has a ton of payroll space too. And they're a winning team who will be looking to add. Still, not sure how we improve our WAR by losing Marcus and replacing him with a AAAA player in Biggio. Team needs to add wins to the 91.

 

Losing 13-14 wins losing Macus and Robbie - we need to get those 13 back and probably add another 8 to account for a down year or injury. Biggio - meh.

 

91 was the real season results. Run differential and many other systems would show the Jays should have won 99ish games. Improper pen usage, some bad bounces, inexperienced kids in tight games …whatever narratives people want to spin to explain the 91 wins vs the 99…. One could say losing Semien (6.6 fWar) and Ray (4 fWar) would drop the Jays to being around 88 wins assuming all other contributions remain similar. So you don’t need to add 13-14 wins to get to 91, not even sure where you got the idea those guys were responsible for 14 wins.

 

There’s tons of room to recreate those guys in the aggregate. Couple of solid pen arms, Montoyo not being a brain dead idiot, Jansen hitting like he can see the ball again rather than waving at butterflies, Ryu remembering the goal of his job is to miss bats, Manoah starting a full season, Pearson doing something for more than 10 games….add a decent starter, grab a decent bat, some defensive depth and the Jays would be in the 95ish win projections and could easily surpass 100 wins.

 

Losing Semien and Ray is not some deathblow to the team that puts them in the mid 70s win expectations. Give your head a shake.

[John_Havok]

But just to add to the casual fan head explosion experience when they do both leave…

 

Semien and Ray just won a couple of Players Choice awards, Semien won the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award given to a player who inspires others to higher levels of achievement (beating Andrew Miller and Max Scherzer) and Ray won the AL Outstanding Pitcher over Lance Lynn and Gerrit Cole.

[Olerud363]

Losing Semien and Ray is not some deathblow to the team that puts them in the mid 70s win expectations. Give your head a shake.

 

Yeah... and Ray and Berrios were available for 8 months combined, next year it will be 6. So in one sense Berrios has replaced Ray already, and now (if trying to replicate the 2021 team) you need to replace 2 months of Berrios with another deadline deal... of course they'll do more than that and try to get another top rotation piece for the full year for 2022, and if they do team will look good going in.

 

[edit] yes injuries, health, once in a lifetime all star and cy young seasons, blah, blah, blah... but we are talking Ray and Semien leaving, not injury luck.

[Jimcanuck]

Also, the you sure as f*** hope the bullpen doesn't leave as much WAR on the table this next season as it did last season.

 

Yep, improving the arm barn is critical.

[The Cats Ass]

Gurriel nominated for a Gold Glove. WTF

 

He is tied for the lead in DRS and laps the other options in assists. LF fielders are just generally bad.

[Spanky99]

He is tied for the lead in DRS and laps the other options in assists. LF fielders are just generally bad.

 

Yeah, that's pretty much the nail on the head.

[Jimcanuck]

He is tied for the lead in DRS and laps the other options in assists. LF fielders are just generally bad.

 

I know. I simply sorted the FG leaderboard by defensive contribution to WAR, and Duvall, Hays and O'Neill are top 3, Lourdes #8. Not a real egregious nomination, just odd for a guy regularly replaced for defensive reasons to be a GG finalist.

[Spanky99]

I know. I simply sorted the FG leaderboard by defensive contribution to WAR, and Duvall, Hays and O'Neill are top 3, Lourdes #8. Not a real egregious nomination, just odd for a guy regularly replaced for defensive reasons to be a GG finalist.

 

It's all nonsense anyway... I only like the player choice awards.

[TwistedLogic]

Didn't know this page existed but it's a great resource for payroll estimates. They've plugged in MLBTR's arbitration projections too:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays

[Jimcanuck]

Didn't know this page existed but it's a great resource for payroll estimates. They've plugged in MLBTR's arbitration projections too:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays

 

Also great for 40 man status and R5 eligibilities