Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Spanky99]

Apparently we offered Matz a multi year deal extension, but he declined.

 

Wish, he took that really.

[RobinThicc]

Shi Davidis interview on blair and barker had some really nice tid bits.

 

Said if he remembers correctly, the Marlins wanted one of Bo or Vlad + Borucki, Jansen and Alford for Yelich. Says at the time it didnt make sense for the Jays, but could be something they do now with a Martinez.

[Krylian]

Apparently we offered Matz a multi year deal extension, but he declined.

 

Never got the feeling that he was on board with being here. Don't see him re-signing. Not the end of the world.

[Olerud363]

Shi Davidis interview on blair and barker had some really nice tid bits.

 

Said if he remembers correctly, the Marlins wanted one of Bo or Vlad + Borucki, Jansen and Alford for Yelich. Says at the time it didnt make sense for the Jays, but could be something they do now with a Martinez.

 

Crazy. Looks like what they actually got didn't pan out. It's almost like it's better off to make these trades when you don't have a super-prospect. Like Gurriel, Jansen, Alford and Borucki would of been a better return compared to what they got (what they got is still developing so maybe someone will break out).

 

Trade negotiation - We demand your best 4 prospects. We are Alpha, we won't give in.

 

Team with not so great top 4 prospects - We will be your Bitch. We will give in.

[Stangstag]

Crazy. Looks like what they actually got didn't pan out. It's almost like it's better off to make these trades when you don't have a super-prospect. Like Gurriel, Jansen, Alford and Borucki would of been a better return compared to what they got (what they got is still developing so maybe someone will break out).

 

Trade negotiation - We demand your best 4 prospects. We are Alpha, we won't give in.

 

Team with not so great top 4 prospects - We will be your Bitch. We will give in.

 

Yeah its dumb that trade discussions seem to be like “hey we want one of your top 2 guys plus extras” not taking into account the actual quality of each team’s farm.

 

I guarantee everyone calling the jays this year will be asking for Moreno, take it or leave it. Meanwhile they’ll call the Yanks and settle for one of their overhyped bum prospects... something like Luis Gil

[jerb]

 

Josh Goldberg

@JGoldberg12

 

Jim Bowden's contract predictions for MLB Free Agency:

 

Marcus Semien: 5 years $148 million (29.6m AAV)

Robbie Ray: 5 years $120 million (25m AAV)

 

Level of confidence that the Jays get one or both of those types of deals done?

[jerb]

 

Josh Goldberg

@JGoldberg12

 

Some @fangraphs contract predictions

 

Marcus Semien: 4 years $120 million (30m AAV)

Robbie Ray: 4 years $112 million (28m AAV)

Steven Matz: 3 years $42 million (14m AAV)

 

https://t.co/5nvCgAZrpr?amp=1

[Brownie19]

Yeah those predictions don't surprise me. The predictions from the Rotoworld article seem way too light.

[L54]

Eduardo Escobar at 1/10 needs to be a Blue Jay

[Jays24]

Wish, he took that really.

 

I would wager a guess that the offer would have been on the lowside of what Matz is expecting to get. That seems to be the way our front office operates which is a good approach. No need to outbid yourself at this stage.

[Jays24]

5/130 for Semien seems good to me. Who would have thought that Semien could earn a bigger deal than Springer a year ago lol.

 

Also, I just can't get behind giving Ray a huge long term deal. Something about a 2 pitch pitcher who has a history of control issues scares me. I would refuse to pay based on his 2021 year alone since a lot of guys lose that same focus once they get their big deal.

[jerb]

 

Mitch Bannon

@MitchBannon

 

Former #BlueJays P Brett Cecil announced his retirement on instagram yesterday. The lefty finished with 756 IP across 10 years and a career 4.29 ERA.

 

"I also want to thank the Blue Jays for giving me my first opportunity to play the game I love professionally," he wrote.

[L54]

Brett Cecil was nails for a few years in Toronto and parlayed his success into a nice pay day from the Cards.

[jerb]

 

Scott Mitchell

@ScottyMitchTSN

 

Hearing #BlueJays will be one of many teams watching the Justin Verlander showcase.

I’d say it’s more that due diligence based on the fit.

[John_Havok]

 

Josh Goldberg

@JGoldberg12

 

Some @fangraphs contract predictions

 

Marcus Semien: 4 years $120 million (30m AAV)

Robbie Ray: 4 years $112 million (28m AAV)

Steven Matz: 3 years $42 million (14m AAV)

 

https://t.co/5nvCgAZrpr?amp=1

 

MLBTraderumours predictions for Ray and Semien: The initials and the teams listed are each writer's prediction on where each player will sign. They all think we keep Ray and not Semien.

 

6. Marcus Semien. Six years, $138MM.

 

TD: Red Sox / SA: Dodgers / AF: Angels

 

Semien settled in as Oakland’s dependable starting shortstop as of 2015, but his offense skyrocketed in 2019 en route to a third-place finish in AL MVP voting. An unimpressive regular season in 2020 led to Semien betting on himself in free agency, signing a one-year, $18MM deal with the Blue Jays and moving to second base. With the Jays, Semien established that 2020 was the fluke, as his monster 45 home run 2021 campaign will net him MVP votes once again. Semien’s Statcast batting metrics don’t stand out this year, but you can’t argue with the results.

 

Defensively, Semien may profile better at second base than shortstop, but he’s played significantly more short in his career and should at least be good for a few years there. Semien does carry the weight of a qualifying offer, but interest should be robust for clubs that missed out on Correa and Seager or prefer not to shop in the $300MM aisle. His market also may differ from Correa and Seager in that he’s more likely to be signed as a second baseman. As a 31-year-old, Semien may be limited to a six-year pact, itself hard to achieve at this age. The Blue Jays will surely attempt to re-sign Semien, but otherwise the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cardinals, and Dodgers are other potential matches.

 

7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.

 

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays

 

Drafted by the Nationals out of high school in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was traded to the Tigers in the December 2013 Doug Fister deal. A year later, Ray was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the three-way trade that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees. Ray found success in his first five seasons for the D’Backs as a high-strikeout, high-walk, homer-prone southpaw. In 2017, he made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting. But in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ray’s already-high walk rate jumped to an untenable 20.1% through seven starts, and with free agency looming he was shipped to Toronto mostly as a salary dump.

 

Ray’s brief effort for the 2020 Jays didn’t stand out, and he still walked batters at a higher rate than he had from 2015-19 in Arizona. Toronto saw something they liked nonetheless, making an early free agent strike by re-upping him to a one-year, $8MM deal in November last year.

 

Ray began the 2021 season on the IL for a bruised elbow suffered falling down some stairs. After a six-walk outing on April 18th, the notion of Ray contending for the AL Cy Young award would have been laughable — but that’s exactly what he did. The 30-year-old lefty led all of baseball with 248 strikeouts, also solving his longstanding walk issue with a career-best 6.9 BB%. Ray’s 2.84 ERA was the best in the American League. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic put it, “How Ray went from good to elite took a change in his mechanics, a change in his approach and a change in his physique.” Still, it wasn’t a radical overhaul in terms of pitch selection for Ray, who has remained a fastball-slider pitcher.

 

Ray showed strong control over a five-month period this year. For a potential new team, how much does that erase his 13 BB% from the three prior years? It’s also worth considering that Ray allowed a home run to 4.3% of batters faced this year, 19th-worst in MLB among those with at least 100 innings pitched. While Ray is about nine months younger than fellow top free agent Gausman, the lefty bears the burden of a qualifying offer. Their markets figure to be similar.

[jerb]

 

Robert Murray

@ByRobertMurray

 

Source: The Baltimore Orioles have claimed pitcher Bryan Baker off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays. Baker made his MLB debut in 2021 (one scoreless inning) and had a 1.31 ERA in 41.1 innings in AAA.

[John_Havok]

 

Robert Murray

@ByRobertMurray

 

Source: The Baltimore Orioles have claimed pitcher Bryan Baker off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays. Baker made his MLB debut in 2021 (one scoreless inning) and had a 1.31 ERA in 41.1 innings in AAA.

 

Another career ruined.

[Jays24]

 

Robert Murray

@ByRobertMurray

 

Source: The Baltimore Orioles have claimed pitcher Bryan Baker off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays. Baker made his MLB debut in 2021 (one scoreless inning) and had a 1.31 ERA in 41.1 innings in AAA.

 

Well that's s*****. Sucks that the dude had great numbers in AAA and never really got a shot at the big club.

[Jimcanuck]

Well that's s*****. Sucks that the dude had great numbers in AAA and never really got a shot at the big club.

 

Meh, these guys are a dime a dozen.

[z3r0s]

So what are ppl's thought on Semien vs Bryant as a target? I love Marcus (obviously) but I imagine they're going to command pretty similar contracts and we might have a harder time filling 3B than 2B with our current guys. Bryant's a bit younger and a bit more consistent, but Marcus has the more recent big WAR years.

 

If I had to choose I might lean Bryant, but maybe I'm crazy.

[max silver]

So what are ppl's thought on Semien vs Bryant as a target? I love Marcus (obviously) but I imagine they're going to command pretty similar contracts and we might have a harder time filling 3B than 2B with our current guys. Bryant's a bit younger and a bit more consistent, but Marcus has the more recent big WAR years.

 

If I had to choose I might lean Bryant, but maybe I'm crazy.

 

For me it would be Semien and it's not even close. Semien provides Gold glove defence at second vs merely adequate defence for Bryant, can cover short stop if Bo needs a day off or misses time, and has provided MVP caliber seasons in the last two full MLB seasons while playing every single day. Bryant could be a fallback option if Semien signs elsewhere but he's a secondary target at best.

[The Cats Ass]

Players that MLBTR guessed to sign with the Bluejays.

 

7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays

 

15. Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.

TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals

 

17. Raisel Iglesias. Four years, $56MM.

TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays

 

29. Kenley Jansen. Two years, $26MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals

 

31. Kyle Seager. Two years, $24MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets

 

35. Eduardo Escobar. Two years, $20MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: White Sox / AF: Blue Jays

[Stangstag]

Players that MLBTR guessed to sign with the Bluejays.

 

7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays

 

15. Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.

TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals

 

17. Raisel Iglesias. Four years, $56MM.

TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays

 

29. Kenley Jansen. Two years, $26MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals

 

31. Kyle Seager. Two years, $24MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets

 

35. Eduardo Escobar. Two years, $20MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: White Sox / AF: Blue Jays

 

Feels like Seager is the most likely on this list. If he only costs 2/24 that would be an excellent fit. Schwarber would be a nice add too, that would give us 3 LHB (includes Biggio at 2B) which is something we were severely lacking last year.

 

Iglesias would be nice

[Ehjays]

Players that MLBTR guessed to sign with the Bluejays.

 

7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays

 

15. Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.

TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals

 

17. Raisel Iglesias. Four years, $56MM.

TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays

 

29. Kenley Jansen. Two years, $26MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals

 

31. Kyle Seager. Two years, $24MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets

 

35. Eduardo Escobar. Two years, $20MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: White Sox / AF: Blue Jays

 

A BIG NO on Jansen. His better days are behind him especially at 26mil. Hope we dont go down that road.

[Abomination]

Players that MLBTR guessed to sign with the Bluejays.

 

7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays

 

15. Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.

TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals

 

17. Raisel Iglesias. Four years, $56MM.

TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays

 

29. Kenley Jansen. Two years, $26MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals

 

31. Kyle Seager. Two years, $24MM.

TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets

 

35. Eduardo Escobar. Two years, $20MM.

TD: Nationals / SA: White Sox / AF: Blue Jays

 

Hell yeah to Escobar and/or Seager at those prices. Big pass on the closers. I wouldn't be upset with Ray at that price, but there's other options I'd be happy with too. Schwarber I'm not sure on. The price isn't insane, and could allow trading Teoscar or likely Gurriel to fill a big hole elsewhere. Probably a no, but I could see the logic.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Would it be a good idea or a bad idea to spend $20-25 million on Iglesias and Mchugh combined? Relievers can be so volatile, but those two seem consistent.

 

I also wonder what it would cost to acquire Taylor Rogers from the Twins. A year left at $6 million on his contract.

 

Iglesias

Romano

Mchugh

Rogers

Mayza

Cimber

Richards

Merryweather

 

That could be one hell of a good bullpen.

[Jimcanuck]

Bullpen just needs a couple of mid game, set-up types for the offseason. Never go whole hog on the bullpen in the offseason. Save bullets for reinforcements mid season as needed.

[Maahfaace]

Oakland firesale incoming. Montas, Bassitt, or Manaea would all be nice adds to the rotation if the price is decent.

 

Report: A's put several star players on trade block to slash payroll

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2221117

[saskjayfan]

Feels like Seager is the most likely on this list. If he only costs 2/24 that would be an excellent fit. Schwarber would be a nice add too, that would give us 3 LHB (includes Biggio at 2B) which is something we were severely lacking last year.

 

Iglesias would be nice

 

Seager at 24 mil....Yuck. There's no way the Jays are taking on 92 mil in salary anyways.

[THANOS]

Feels like Seager is the most likely on this list. If he only costs 2/24 that would be an excellent fit. Schwarber would be a nice add too, that would give us 3 LHB (includes Biggio at 2B) which is something we were severely lacking last year.

 

Iglesias would be nice

 

I don't want to waste 12M AAV on Kyle Seager when Espinal likely equals his WAR for league min.