Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Ryu In My House]

This is actually attainable, and looks like an extremely solid team. Ramirez might not be possible but I think as long as they get 100wRC+ from 3B with good defense (instead of negative WAR Biggio for 2 months), they should be able to hit 90+ wins.

 

I like this - very realistic and gets 'er done.

[InsideThePark]

I don't see them spending all their cash in long term deals. They have about 50-60 million to spend and 2 major holes to fill. 1 of them will be long term and the other a shorter term either buy low for 1 year Semien style, or a Scherzer type of expensive 2 year deal because he's old. Which is which position will depend on what's out there.

[RustyTrombone]

Marcus Semein - 18 M

Robbie Ray - 8 M

Steven Matz - 5.2 M

Corey Dickerson - 2.25 M

Kirby Yates - 5.5 M

David Phelps - 1.75 M

Joakim Soria - 1.2 M

AJ Cole - 800K

Tanner Roark - 12 M

Troy Tulowitzki - 4 M

Shun Yamaguchi - 3.175 M

Tyler Chatwood - 3 M

Rafael Dolis - 1.5 M

Negligible Players - 5 M

 

Equals about 71 M off the books for 2022

Say Rogers OKs a 20 M increase to payroll for 2022. Gives us roughly 90 M to work with.

 

From what I can tell, Vlad, Teo, Berrios are the main guys who will get significant raises in arbitration. Vlad probably will not break Bellingers ARB 1 record of 11.5M. Im guessing around 10M for Vladdy. Teo will get probably a healthy 10M increase for ARB 2. Berrios will get a healthy raise as well, Im guessing another 10 M. Say about 35 M in ARB raises for the team. Im not a payroll guy so maybe someone else could take a look.

 

So that leaves us still with 55 M to spend on free agents/trades in this scenario. We could very easily sign both Ray AND Semein to extensions and still have money left over to patch the holes. Move Grichuks contract and you get another 10 M. Some how finagle a trade for Jose Ramirez including Kirk and Orelvis and you got a legitimate super team in the AL to rival the Dodgers.

 

Future is extremely bright for a sustained championship bid year in year out.

[John_Havok]

Marcus Semein - 18 M

Robbie Ray - 8 M

Steven Matz - 5.2 M

Corey Dickerson - 2.25 M

Kirby Yates - 5.5 M

David Phelps - 1.75 M

Joakim Soria - 1.2 M

AJ Cole - 800K

Tanner Roark - 12 M

Troy Tulowitzki - 4 M

Shun Yamaguchi - 3.175 M

Tyler Chatwood - 3 M

Rafael Dolis - 1.5 M

Negligible Players - 5 M

 

Equals about 71 M off the books for 2022

Say Rogers OKs a 20 M increase to payroll for 2022. Gives us roughly 90 M to work with.

 

From what I can tell, Vlad, Teo, Berrios are the main guys who will get significant raises in arbitration. Vlad probably will not break Bellingers ARB 1 record of 11.5M. Im guessing around 10M for Vladdy. Teo will get probably a healthy 10M increase for ARB 2. Berrios will get a healthy raise as well, Im guessing another 10 M. Say about 35 M in ARB raises for the team. Im not a payroll guy so maybe someone else could take a look.

 

So that leaves us still with 55 M to spend on free agents/trades in this scenario. We could very easily sign both Ray AND Semein to extensions and still have money left over to patch the holes. Move Grichuks contract and you get another 10 M. Some how finagle a trade for Jose Ramirez including Kirk and Orelvis and you got a legitimate super team in the AL to rival the Dodgers.

 

Future is extremely bright for a sustained championship bid year in year out.

 

I think signing a top end starter plus a defence first IF that isn’t a complete limp noodle would be better, cheaper and still leave lots of room to play with pen additions. I’m too many vodkas into the evening to think clearly enough, but I would really consider backing up the Brinks truck to Scherzers doorstep for 3years 100m+. I doubt he gets more than 3 guaranteed years at his age despite his incredible performance this year. If needed, add an 4th year team option with 5m buyout or some s***. The Jays need a real top end guy.

 

I also haven’t looked too deep into Espinals numbers but he may have played himself into something more than just a utility bench afterthought.

[itaos]

Stack the bullpen. It was suspect before the season even with Yates.

[Spanky99]

Dildo's

[FantasyNewb]

Is there any chance Moreno will be moved to 3rd full-time, and if so, will his bat play up there?

[Dick_Pole]

The FO just needs to do what it can to bring back/extend the guys they had on this team on October 3, 2021. No real need for much improvements, honestly.

[LeafsSuck1967]

Sign Jordy Mercer and subject him to cruel and unusual punishment.

 

Playing for this organization is cruel enough.

[Dick_Pole]

Things that will be hard to repeat:

Semien, even if he comes back next year -3 WAR

Ray, see above -3 WAR

Failure to sign one of the two -4 WAR

Incredible SP health -4 WAR

 

Things that are likely to get better:

Bullpen, just by random chance, can't be as s*** as it was this year +3 WAR

Full year of Manoah +2 WAR

Full year of Berrios +2 WAR

Full year of Springer, which means less for Grishuk +2 WAR

Bichette and Guerrero get even better +2 WAR

 

That's -3 WAR on a 100 win talent team. The Jays are starting with a base of around 90 wins with the top two priorities being resigning Semien and Ray with a distant and very achievable #3 priority being re-signing Matz.

[Deadpool]

Then create a thread that’s titled “Jays Off-season thread” or something. This thread title is reserved whoever the drunkest dipshit is at 12:01 on Jan 1st 2022.

 

This. I don't want to lock this thread 'cause it's being used, so the question is which thread do I merge it into... Offseason, or General 2021?

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't think the FO will f*** around this off season.

 

They'll get done what needs to get done, and this team will have a realistic shot at 100 wins next season.

[John_Havok]

This. I don't want to lock this thread 'cause it's being used, so the question is which thread do I merge it into... Offseason, or General 2021?

 

The Offseason 21/22 thread I think.

[glory]

I don't think the FO will f*** around this off season.

 

Agreed. Unless they decide to slash payroll for some reason, I fully expect more home run swings by the front office. The chances of them hitting the holy grail of off seasons again (Semien/Springer/Ray) is very unlikely, especially now as more teams will probably spend money (as opposed to last winter when the Jays were only 1 of like 3 teams who spent anything), but either way I expect them to shop in the elite section again.

 

What remains to be seen is whether they legitimately try to re-sign Semien and Ray, or try to find the 2022 versions of Semien and Ray. I think you can make an argument for either approach depending on how you want to look at it. Not sure who the one year deals will be in 2022. Maybe one of the SS's coming off a down year or don't see a market due to heavy competition may take a one year pillow deal. Only Story and maybe Baez fit that category. A LH bat like Conforto, who the Mets may not qualify, will probably look for a one year pillow deal coming off a down season, and he fits the Jays needs perfectly (buy low). On the pitching side, ideally the Jays go bonkers and just offer a high AAV over 3 years for Scherzer, but I don't think he'd have any interest in the Jays. Syndergaard might be the 2022 version of Ray if he's healthy, but the Mets would be foolish not to qualify him.

[bronson44]

Agreed. Unless they decide to slash payroll for some reason, I fully expect more home run swings by the front office. The chances of them hitting the holy grail of off seasons again (Semien/Springer/Ray) is very unlikely, especially now as more teams will probably spend money (as opposed to last winter when the Jays were only 1 of like 3 teams who spent anything), but either way I expect them to shop in the elite section again.

 

What remains to be seen is whether they legitimately try to re-sign Semien and Ray, or try to find the 2022 versions of Semien and Ray. I think you can make an argument for either approach depending on how you want to look at it. Not sure who the one year deals will be in 2022. Maybe one of the SS's coming off a down year or don't see a market due to heavy competition may take a one year pillow deal. Only Story and maybe Baez fit that category. A LH bat like Conforto, who the Mets may not qualify, will probably look for a one year pillow deal coming off a down season, and he fits the Jays needs perfectly (buy low). On the pitching side, ideally the Jays go bonkers and just offer a high AAV over 3 years for Scherzer, but I don't think he'd have any interest in the Jays. Syndergaard might be the 2022 version of Ray if he's healthy, but the Mets would be foolish not to qualify him.

 

I think we've become a pretty good destination for position players willing to take a pillow contract. The lineup we are able to put around them should be enticing and they have seen what Semien was able to do here and parlay into a huge payday. I'm cautiously optimistic they will be able to sign somebody looking to rebound. Looking at you Story.

[Ryu In My House]

This. I don't want to lock this thread 'cause it's being used, so the question is which thread do I merge it into... Offseason, or General 2021?

 

For sure merge.

 

title idea: General Blue Jays Offseason Discussion (for 2022 Season)

[Slade]

What are they going to do about C? Jansen has really bounced back nicely, Kirk is such a great bat at the position, and Moreno is probably the best of all 3.

 

If the reports are true that they wanted Yan Gomes at the deadline, I think it's likely they trade two of Jansen, Kirk, McGuire and opt for a Veteran backup maybe even Gomes again.

[Mikeleelop]

do the Jays package Gurriel/Kirk for an impact SP or LHH OF,2b/3b?

 

does that combo get you anything of any value?

 

are the Jays prepared to sell high on Gurriel?

[Mikeleelop]

would Jays fans be excited to add Baez at SS/2B for a one year deal ?

 

he's Berrios brother in law i believe, but he is a defensive wizard with the flair for the dramatic hit (but does strike out a lot and makes Bo's eye at the plate look elite)

[RustyTrombone]

do the Jays package Gurriel/Kirk for an impact SP or LHH OF,2b/3b?

 

does that combo get you anything of any value?

 

are the Jays prepared to sell high on Gurriel?

 

Move Kirk and Groshans/Orelvis + for Jose Ramirez. I bet Pearson gets dangled in trades this off season too. Gurriel would be a bit of sell low IMO. I think he breaks out like Teo next season and puts up a 130 wrc+ in 2022.

 

We have the payroll flexibility to take on tons of salary as well. Could take 2 Springer type of deals this winter. Bring back Ray and Semien or go balls out for Corey Seager who would be the absolute perfect fit if he is willing to move to 3rd full time.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Here is what the Jays are looking at right now without any off-season moves made yet:

 

C - Jansen

1B - Vladdy

2B - Biggio

3B - Espinal

SS - Bo

LF - Gurriel

CF - Springer

RF - Teo

DH -

 

Bench OF - Grichuk

Bench IF -

Bench UT - Valera

Bench C - Kirk

 

Depth position players on the 40 man: Mcguire, Smith, Moreno, Lopez, Palacios

 

SP - Berrios

SP - Ryu

SP - Manoah

SP - Stripling

SP - Pearson

 

CL - Romano

SU - Cimber

RP - Merryweather

RP - Mayza

RP - Richards

RP -

RP -

RP -

 

Depth pitchers on the 40 man: Hatch, Castro, Kay, Thornton, Snead, Borucki, Saucedo, Baker

 

 

It's actually a pretty decent team just like that to be honest, and there are several different ways the FO can go to try and improve on it.

 

Biggest places to make improvements:

 

Position players/bench: 2B (Biggio), 3B (Espinal) and 4th OF (Grichuk)

Starting pitching: Stripling, Pearson

Relief pitching: Probably need to sign 2 or 3 high quality arms with a history of durability.

 

They also don't have a full time DH, but if they can upgrade the 4th OFer spot they can keep rotating players through the DH role to give position players a day off in the field while keeping their bat in the line up. This is why landing Brantley would have been so nice last off season. Maybe they can snag Schwarber this off season to take that type of role.

[Mikeleelop]

Here is what the Jays are looking at right now without any off-season moves made yet:

 

C - Jansen

1B - Vladdy

2B - Biggio

3B - Espinal

SS - Bo

LF - Gurriel

CF - Springer

RF - Teo

DH -

 

Bench OF - Grichuk

Bench IF -

Bench UT - Valera

Bench C - Kirk

 

Depth position players on the 40 man: Mcguire, Smith, Moreno, Lopez, Palacios

 

SP - Berrios

SP - Ryu

SP - Manoah

SP - Stripling

SP - Pearson

 

CL - Romano

SU - Cimber

RP - Merryweather

RP - Mayza

RP - Richards

RP -

RP -

RP -

 

Depth pitchers on the 40 man: Hatch, Castro, Kay, Thornton, Snead, Borucki, Saucedo, Baker

 

 

It's actually a pretty decent team just like that to be honest, and there are several different ways the FO can go to try and improve on it.

 

Biggest places to make improvements:

 

Position players/bench: 2B (Biggio), 3B (Espinal) and 4th OF (Grichuk)

Starting pitching: Stripling, Pearson

Relief pitching: Probably need to sign 2 or 3 high quality arms with a history of durability.

 

They also don't have a full time DH, but if they can upgrade the 4th OFer spot they can keep rotating players through the DH role to give position players a day off in the field while keeping their bat in the line up. This is why landing Brantley would have been so nice last off season. Maybe they can snag Schwarber this off season to take that type of role.

 

 

i do like the add of Schwarber to this team

[Stangstag]

would Jays fans be excited to add Baez at SS/2B for a one year deal ?

 

he's Berrios brother in law i believe, but he is a defensive wizard with the flair for the dramatic hit (but does strike out a lot and makes Bo's eye at the plate look elite)

 

Don’t really want him around the young guys... plus he’s probably going back to the Mets anyways

[Slade]

Move Kirk and Groshans/Orelvis + for Jose Ramirez. I bet Pearson gets dangled in trades this off season too. Gurriel would be a bit of sell low IMO. I think he breaks out like Teo next season and puts up a 130 wrc+ in 2022.

 

We have the payroll flexibility to take on tons of salary as well. Could take 2 Springer type of deals this winter. Bring back Ray and Semien or go balls out for Corey Seager who would be the absolute perfect fit if he is willing to move to 3rd full time.

 

How they going to take back 2 Springer type deals and bring back Ray and Semien who are going to take Springer type deals?

[BuffaloWings]

Any post season idea that includes Biggio was a full time starter is a bad one in my opinion.

[Stangstag]

Any post season idea that includes Biggio was a full time starter is a bad one in my opinion.

 

Biggio is a good player, but he sucks at 3rd base. And he wasn’t really healthy most of the year.

 

He’s at least a 3 WAR player at 2B

[RustyTrombone]

How they going to take back 2 Springer type deals and bring back Ray and Semien who are going to take Springer type deals?

 

Ray and Semien would be the Springer type deals. Split 50m between the 2 of them and you still have another 5-10m to spend depending on how much Rogers increases payroll.

[Olerud363]

Do you believe in Alejandra Kirk's bat? His current lifetime stats are .245 .330 .430 or so. His minor league stats are great. He k'd only 22 times in 160 at bats this year. Walked 19.

 

Blue Jays DHs hit .220 .305 .405 this year. Just putting Kirk there and leaving him there would improve the position even if he hit at his lifetime rate, which is low sample size, and he is young, and he should be even better a year older and hypothetically not catching.

 

Jays DHs were horrible. If it's not Kirk it should be someone who can hit. Forget this rotating guys into it.

 

The rotating guys are

 

a) George Springer with one knee

Lourdes Gurriel with his finger sliced in 2

 

No more rotating injured players into DH. It should be spot for some hitting, not a rehabilitation service.

[Olerud363]

OK. I know sliced finger Lourdes only got 4 or 5 games DH and one knee Springer maybe 20.

 

How did it get so bad? Rowdy messed up. Panic probably DH'd some games, and Grichuk, lol

 

Get a guy who can hit. DH position shouldn't hit .220 with a .300 on base percentage.

[Laika]

Do you believe in Alejandra Kirk's bat? His current lifetime stats are .245 .330 .430 or so. His minor league stats are great. He k'd only 22 times in 160 at bats this year. Walked 19.

 

Blue Jays DHs hit .220 .305 .405 this year. Just putting Kirk there and leaving him there would improve the position even if he hit at his lifetime rate, which is low sample size, and he is young, and he should be even better a year older and hypothetically not catching.

 

Jays DHs were horrible. If it's not Kirk it should be someone who can hit. Forget this rotating guys into it.

 

The rotating guys are

 

a) George Springer with one knee

Lourdes Gurriel with his finger sliced in 2

 

No more rotating injured players into DH. It should be spot for some hitting, not a rehabilitation service.

 

Yeah I kind of like Kirk @ DH (maybe he catches 20% of the time), Jansen and Moreno start in a time-share with the hope that Moreno takes the starting job and Jansen becomes a backup. That's if there are no trades.