Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Deadpool]

This tells me Shapiro isn't going to break the bank for either guy. Doesn't mean they won't tender offers though.

 

 

This is fine, you really don't want to go into negotiations with a player after publicly stating "we're desperate to hold on to this guy and will pay anything they ask!"

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Kirk did lose weight last offseason. He was just really fat in 2019. You have to go back and look at the pictures. Dude probably lost 30lbs in the offseason. I hope he puts the work in again and comes in better next spring too.

Yes, that he did but he still has more to go especially if he wants to catch a majority of the games. (even though I think Jansen has a solid lock on the position if he can maintain a decent bat).

[saskjayfan]

Yes, that he did but he still has more to go especially if he wants to catch a majority of the games. (even though I think Jansen has a solid lock on the position if he can maintain a decent bat).

 

I think Kirk, especially his bat is fairly predictable. Danny Jansen is the troubling one to predict. He couldn't hit for 2 and half years and then he turned into Mike Piazza the 2nd half of last year. Would the real Danny Jansen please stand up. I expected Danny to hit at least at a decent level for seemingly forever, and then when I finally gave up he starts hitting like an MVP.

[Olerud363]

This past season Kirk witnessed first hand what being in shape did for Vladdy, if he can't get inspired and in shape after seeing that then I say the Jays should seriously think of trading him.

 

This is why I think it will be so hard to get value for him. If the Jays are shopping him, the other teams might think they are shopping him because he can't get in shape, and will be hesitant to give up value.

[Olerud363]

I think Kirk, especially his bat is fairly predictable. Danny Jansen is the troubling one to predict. He couldn't hit for 2 and half years and then he turned into Mike Piazza the 2nd half of last year. Would the real Danny Jansen please stand up. I expected Danny to hit at least at a decent level for seemingly forever, and then when I finally gave up he starts hitting like an MVP.

 

Is there any reason other than bad luck he is a life time .210 hitter? Maybe he is just a .250 hitter with a bit of walks and power that has had rotten luck.

[TwistedLogic]

The guy who broke the news of the Jays coming back to Toronto and increasing capacity a month later is saying the Jays are operating with a $180M payroll figure in mind this coming offseason. Says the team will be very busy and could go even higher than 180M if the right situation presents itself.

 

If that's true, most of my "fantasy GM" plans fit within that number.

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Jose Ramirez would fit this roster so perfectly. 3rd base, switch hitter, high OBP, high OPS....

 

Just don't see any way Cleveland moves him without a massive, massive overpay considering his contract.

 

And then, even if they do they likely find an NL team to send him to instead of potential wild card competition.

[glory]

This is why I think it will be so hard to get value for him. If the Jays are shopping him, the other teams might think they are shopping him because he can't get in shape, and will be hesitant to give up value.

 

Kirk is 22, at catcher, with an excellent offensive profile. I don't think the Jays would have trouble getting value for him.

 

It's not about shopping him necessarily, it's that he's probably the one catcher on the 40 man who is both expendable + should (in theory) have high value in a trade. The team is not going to get much value for either Jansen or McGuire, and there's a chance that Jansen still might be decent (we will have to get more sample size after his strong end to the season). They'll get a ton of value for Moreno, but he's not being moved. That leaves Kirk as the most logical piece to move in a deal.

 

The one team that jumps out to me is the Marlins. They have SP's up the wazoo and badly need MLB level offense. There's probably some deal there with the 2 teams that could be worked out.

[John_Havok]

Seriously? It would take that much to bring back Matz on 1 one year deal?

 

Kinda. 18.4 million is the expected value of the 1 year contract offer that teams must make to departing free agents if they want a pick back if the player declines.

 

It’s probably more than he is worth on a strictly AAV basis, but…Matz is at his highest value ….ever, so he may take this opportunity to take a multi year deal worth less AAV elsewhere. If he does, Jays get a pick back. If he accepts Jays get Matz for 1 year 18.4, which is totally acceptable as a 1 year deal. Having Matz back at 1 year for 18.4 is decidedly not prohibitive to them doing anything else given the state of their payroll.

[Brownie19]

Jose Ramirez would fit this roster so perfectly. 3rd base, switch hitter, high OBP, high OPS....

 

Just don't see any way Cleveland moves him without a massive, massive overpay considering his contract.

 

And then, even if they do they likely find an NL team to send him to instead of potential wild card competition.

 

If Cleveland is moving Ramirez, I don't think they'll be a contender for the WC anytime soon. I suspect they will move him to the club that offers the best package.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If Cleveland is moving Ramirez, I don't think they'll be a contender for the WC anytime soon. I suspect they will move him to the club that offers the best package.

 

Good point.

 

Let's hope it happens. That'd be a game changer.

[Jimcanuck]

Moreno+ is what it would take for Ramirez.

 

Let's say its Moreno, Hoglund, and Beltre

 

Do you do it?

[max silver]

Moreno+ is what it would take for Ramirez.

 

Let's say its Moreno, Hoglund, and Beltre

 

Do you do it?

 

I certainly wouldn't do it. I would rather the club spend the necessary dollars to resign Semien, and then midseason have the ability to add another potential impact bat to the lineup once Moreno is deemed ready for his shot. Semien+Moreno would be a far stronger combination than Ramirez alone. This certainly would have a negative effect on future financial flexibility, but in a lot of ways I think Semien is a perfect fit due to being a little older, in that he won't require an 8-10 year mega contract that would be required to bring in a player with comparable impact such as Correa or Corey Seager.

[Daniel Labude]

I certainly wouldn't do it. I would rather the club spend the necessary dollars to resign Semien, and then midseason have the ability to add another potential impact bat to the lineup once Moreno is deemed ready for his shot. Semien+Moreno would be a far stronger combination than Ramirez alone. This certainly would have a negative effect on future financial flexibility, but in a lot of ways I think Semien is a perfect fit due to being a little older, in that he won't require an 8-10 year mega contract that would be required to bring in a player with comparable impact such as Correa or Corey Seager.

 

This

[Jimcanuck]

I certainly wouldn't do it. I would rather the club spend the necessary dollars to resign Semien, and then midseason have the ability to add another potential impact bat to the lineup once Moreno is deemed ready for his shot. Semien+Moreno would be a far stronger combination than Ramirez alone. This certainly would have a negative effect on future financial flexibility, but in a lot of ways I think Semien is a perfect fit due to being a little older, in that he won't require an 8-10 year mega contract that would be required to bring in a player with comparable impact such as Correa or Corey Seager.

 

Maybe Semien would be enticed with a heavy front loaded contract. It will take something different + more dollars to lure him from the west coast.

[Jimcanuck]

This

 

Dude, LOD thread needs your attention.

[Brownie19]

Moreno+ is what it would take for Ramirez.

 

Let's say its Moreno, Hoglund, and Beltre

 

Do you do it?

 

I understand the benefit of trading to acquire great players when the time is right on the win curve - but I really struggle with this type of thing. I want a sustainable winner in TO - not a team that has a couple of years 'go for it'. Emptying the farm system to add guys like Marquis and Ramirez seems like a 'go for it' move instead of a sustainable winner move. Teams that are in a position to win now are really enticing for free agents in general, but really enticing for those looking for short term pillow contracts. Especially on offense (who doesn't want to hit in our offensive lineup/stadium?), I think we can add really good players without trading prospects....all without crippling our financial situation. That's the route I'd prefer to go.

[Dokken]

The guy who broke the news of the Jays coming back to Toronto and increasing capacity a month later is saying the Jays are operating with a $180M payroll figure in mind this coming offseason. Says the team will be very busy and could go even higher than 180M if the right situation presents itself.

 

If that's true, most of my "fantasy GM" plans fit within that number.

 

 

WOW $180 M is a big number!! If true, finally thinking like a big market team. My concern would be multi-year commitments that blow up in their faces like Morales and Roark, even those were not huge contracts. I hope they don't break the bank for Ray; he seems likely to turn back into a pumpkin and soon.

[saskjayfan]

WOW $180 M is a big number!! If true, finally thinking like a big market team. My concern would be multi-year commitments that blow up in their faces like Morales and Roark, even those were not huge contracts. I hope they don't break the bank for Ray; he seems likely to turn back into a pumpkin and soon.

 

Ray could get an AAV of 25 to 30 mil. I just don't see the Jays going there. If his AAV was 20 I would do that. I just feel he will get better offers elsewhere. I'd do 5 years 125 on Semien though. Pitchers are such a gamble. I'd rather gamble on Verlander for 1 year, but the sticky stuff and how much he relied on that has to factor in too. Lots of options to discuss endlessly for months on end.

[Stangstag]

Ray could get an AAV of 25 to 30 mil. I just don't see the Jays going there. If his AAV was 20 I would do that. I just feel he will get better offers elsewhere. I'd do 5 years 125 on Semien though. Pitchers are such a gamble. I'd rather gamble on Verlander for 1 year, but the sticky stuff and how much he relied on that has to factor in too. Lots of options to discuss endlessly for months on end.

 

5/100 for Ray or 5/125 for Semien?

 

Or sign Matz and 1 of Syndergaard/Verlander?

[max silver]

5/100 for Ray or 5/125 for Semien?

 

Or sign Matz and 1 of Syndergaard/Verlander?

 

If payroll parameters would allow for it I would qualify Matz with hopes of him signing a slightly cheaper AAV multi year deal (something like 3 years/$40 million), sign Semien and go hard after one of Syndergaard or Verlander.

[Stangstag]

If payroll parameters would allow for it I would qualify Matz with hopes of him signing a slightly cheaper AAV multi year deal (something like 3 years/$40 million), sign Semien and go hard after one of Syndergaard or Verlander.

 

The most exciting thing is that this actually seems like a realistic scenario. I think the bullpen still needs to be addressed though. We should be looking to add 2 legit arms there IMO

[Dokken]

5/100 for Ray or 5/125 for Semien?

 

Or sign Matz and 1 of Syndergaard/Verlander?

 

Oh Semien for 5/125 for sure! I would only go 3/45 on Ray with a 4th year option for $20M or $5 M buyout. What about Mad Max? He seems like a guy that really wants to win, and might be just the type who would relish having all of Canada cheering him on. Then again he is old as dirt, so maybe 3/75 ?

[saskjayfan]

Oh Semien for 5/125 for sure! I would only go 3/45 on Ray with a 4th year option for $20M or $5 M buyout. What about Mad Max? He seems like a guy that really wants to win, and might be just the type who would relish having all of Canada cheering him on. Then again he is old as dirt, so maybe 3/75 ?

 

Do you tip 10% when you go to restaurants?

[Eat My Shatkins]

I can't wait to watch this off season play out. I believe that even without any signings or trades they already have a solid team.

 

But, they obviously won't stand pat. They will be in on so many things and they have payroll room to make big signings, they also have prospect capital to make big trades.

 

There are several different ways they can try to go.

[Dokken]

Do you tip 10% when you go to restaurants?

 

Nice try but, in this case it is not my money so what would I care anyways. Feel free to spend Rogers' money as you wish!

 

P.S. I only tip 5 % if everything is excellent, otherwise zero;)

 

ETA: I have zero faith that Robbie Ray will follow up this career season with anything even close.

[Eat My Shatkins]

You're talking about tipping 5% like it doesn't make you a cheap ass motherf***er.

[connorp]

Nice try but, in this case it is not my money so what would I care anyways. Feel free to spend Rogers' money as you wish!

 

P.S. I only tip 5 % if everything is excellent, otherwise zero;)

 

ETA: I have zero faith that Robbie Ray will follow up this career season with anything even close.

 

I’d the supposed board sociopath and I can even say you’re f***ed up. In respect of the rules of the forum, I will not speculate on your race:)

[John_Havok]

I’d the supposed board sociopath and I can even say you’re f***ed up. In respect of the rules of the forum, I will not speculate on your race:)

 

Jews are a religion, not a race.

[connorp]

Jews are a religion, not a race.

 

Ah. I was going another way with the stereotype lol…but that works just as well