Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Olerud363]

Seager is somewhat intriguing. LHH - 2.5 fWAR with a 99 wRC+. Kind of a LHH Grichuk with more power when we comes to OBP and Ks this year. I don't know. Doesn't add that much if he doesn't rebound at 34.

 

Still would love to know cost of Ramirez. He just checks so many boxes for the 22 team and allows us to use Biggio/Espy at 2B. Lourdes plus top prospect/Nate? Lourdes has upside, control in an under market deal. I have no idea. I don't see us signing Semien or Ray.

 

 

I assume Ramirez would cost one of Moreno or Martinez so prefer to stay away.

 

Seager is a risk, but his home/road splits are intriguing. He's significantly better than Grichuk when you consider home/road splits and defense.

 

life time: .239 .319 .402 / .262 .322 .478

2021: .159 .245 .329 / .261 .323 .538

[BigCecil]

I think there's a team out there that gives Ray 5 and 150. I don't see us going there. I think we will sign Semien and I've felt all year that we wouldn't. 5 and 125. Santiago espinal has really good bat to ball skills. The kid is a good defender. I took my till August for me to realize he was as good as he is. I think he should be our starting 3rd baseman. Biggio can obviously be our super utility. Groshans and Smith are kids that can come up. I feel like they might move Moreno to 3rd. 15 mil on a declining Seager would be a waste. Put that money towards pitching. Ramirez would be fantastic, but I feel like Cleveland will hold on to him.

 

I don't think you can afford a 3B with no power in the AL East. Espy flew under the radar and put up incredible numbers. I don't trust them to stick if he starts. We had a great offence but it was often inconsistent. We need a solid LHH bat or SH at that position. We are too RHH dominant and so many pens now are throwing RHP V with filthy breaking balls at them. Also...we are probably losing 45 HRs from Marcus or paying a s*** ton to try and keep them.

 

I like the responses on Ramirez from all. Interesting discussion.

[Jimcanuck]

Conforto is kinda like Semien last year. Coming off a down year, but history of good / elite performance. Conforto LF, Gurriel 3B?

[Olerud363]

I think there's a team out there that gives Ray 5 and 150. I don't see us going there. I think we will sign Semien and I've felt all year that we wouldn't. 5 and 125. Santiago espinal has really good bat to ball skills. The kid is a good defender. I took my till August for me to realize he was as good as he is. I think he should be our starting 3rd baseman. Biggio can obviously be our super utility. Groshans and Smith are kids that can come up. I feel like they might move Moreno to 3rd. 15 mil on a declining Seager would be a waste. Put that money towards pitching. Ramirez would be fantastic, but I feel like Cleveland will hold on to him.

 

 

The Seager idea isn't instead of pitching. It's assuming you also sign a starter (Ray/Stroman/Someone Else).

 

It's a risk but a less risky player, late 20s, in their prime will cost a tonne of prospects or 300 million.

 

Tanner Roark was 2 years 24 million coming off of 2 WAR - that was not a good deal, it was a risk and was terrible.

 

Seager 2 years 30 million is a risk too... The main reason I think it is a good risk is home/road splits and fWAR

 

Not sure what to make of the batted ball data, seems he is an extreme flyball hitter, and hard hit rate has declined very, very slightly last year.

 

Would you rather have Kirk, Martinez, Kloffenstein and Seager at 30 million, or Ramirez 2 year 25 million (or whatever it is) ?

[saskjayfan]

I don't think you can afford a 3B with no power in the AL East. Espy flew under the radar and put up incredible numbers. I don't trust them to stick if he starts. We had a great offence but it was often inconsistent. We need a solid LHH bat or SH at that position. We are too RHH dominant and so many pens now are throwing RHP V with filthy breaking balls at them. Also...we are probably losing 45 HRs from Marcus or paying a s*** ton to try and keep them.

 

I like the responses on Ramirez from all. Interesting discussion.

 

My premise is based on Marcus resigning. Espinal has a 25.1% career 0-swing percentage. Understanding the strike zone is the hardest thing for a hitter to develop. It can improve over time to some degree, but for many it never does. League average 0-swing was 32% this year. He walked 8.9% of the time, close to league average, but only struck out 12.2% of the time. Given the power up and down the lineup he seems like exactly the type of hitter that fits with this lineup. He also is a plus base runner despite not being fast and was a ++ defender this year. He's league min. Spending 10s of millions of dollars on aging players to take bats away from this kid doesn't make sense to me. Put it into pitching.

[Olerud363]

My premise is based on Marcus resigning. Espinal has a 25.1% career 0-swing percentage. Understanding the strike zone is the hardest thing for a hitter to develop. It can improve over time to some degree, but for many it never does. League average 0-swing was 32% this year. He walked 8.9% of the time, close to league average, but only struck out 12.2% of the time. Given the power up and down the lineup he seems like exactly the type of hitter that fits with this lineup. He also is a plus base runner despite not being fast and was a ++ defender this year. He's league min. Spending 10s of millions of dollars on aging players to take bats away from this kid doesn't make sense to me. Put it into pitching.

 

Espinal's exit velocity is really low I think. Laika or someone went in depth about it. It's a big red flag if I remember right.

[glory]

Conforto is kinda like Semien last year. Coming off a down year, but history of good / elite performance. Conforto LF, Gurriel 3B?

 

I wouldn't say he's like Semien (whose ceiling is basically a MVP candidate), but Conforto could easily be a 3-4 WAR players next year, and from the left side which would help balance out the lineup a bit.

 

It's too bad Michael Brantley didn't sign. He was practically the perfect player for this offense.

[Olerud363]

hate this

 

Don't care if it's Seager and Conforto, but on offense I'd like to see

 

Improve DH numbers - seems like all DHs suck for some reason now, so Jays are like an above average DH even hitting like s***, still... seems like some low hanging fruit to get better DH production.

 

Improve left/right balance - Maybe this doesn't matter, but maybe facing 100 mph right handed relievers it does.. I don't know.

 

Make sure Biggio/Espinal is 10th man or lower, Grichuk 11th or lower -- Grichuk shouldn't get more than 300 PAs

 

Any set of ideas that accomplishes above for the offense is great with me.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I still think JD is a good target as long as he and the FO can bury the hatchet.

 

He can come here, fill a huge hole but he doesn't have to be THE guy this time around, which is good because he's 36 now. Plus he only has two seasons left so it's not a long term commitment.

 

Send them Grichuk and Smith.

 

Grichuk has two years left at $10,333,333 and JD has two years left at $21,000,000 (plus a team option).

 

Then as I've said plenty, try to sign Schwarber as the 4th OF, DH and once in a while 1B.

 

1. CF Springer

2. 1B Vladdy

3. 3B Donaldson

4. SS Bichette

5. DH Schwarber

6. RF Hernandez

7. LF Gurriel

8. C Jansen / Kirk

9. 2B Biggio

 

 

That line up would murder pitchers.

[saskjayfan]

Espinal's exit velocity is really low I think. Laika or someone went in depth about it. It's a big red flag if I remember right.

 

Exit velocity isn't everything. He obviously doesn't have power. He has a career .361 OBP and doesn't strike out. I don't see this changing much because he has the bat to ball skills. He derives most of his value from defense anyways, but hits .300. We have plenty of bombers. Seager would be a massive waste of money.

[Brownie19]

Don't care if it's Seager and Conforto, but on offense I'd like to see

 

Improve DH numbers - seems like all DHs suck for some reason now, so Jays are like an above average DH even hitting like s***, still... seems like some low hanging fruit to get better DH production.

 

Improve left/right balance - Maybe this doesn't matter, but maybe facing 100 mph right handed relievers it does.. I don't know.

 

Make sure Biggio/Espinal is 10th man or lower, Grichuk 11th or lower -- Grichuk shouldn't get more than 300 PAs

 

Any set of ideas that accomplishes above for the offense is great with me.

 

I see you listing this on multiple posts. Do you consider them a platoon? or we'd have one or the other? I just can't imagine we'll go into next season with both Biggio and Espinal as bench players unless we really increase payroll or ignore pitching altogether. I think you'll see one of those 2 as a bench piece, along with Grichuk - which still would be the makings of a great bench (especially when you consider how strong our backup catcher is likely to be).

[Brownie19]

Conforto has to be one of the best pillow contract options on the market. He'd be an incredible addition to this team.

[Olerud363]

I see you listing this on multiple posts. Do you consider them a platoon? or we'd have one or the other? I just can't imagine we'll go into next season with both Biggio and Espinal as bench players unless we really increase payroll or ignore pitching altogether. I think you'll see one of those 2 as a bench piece, along with Grichuk - which still would be the makings of a great bench (especially when you consider how strong our backup catcher is likely to be).

 

I'm assuming some combination of increasing payroll or acquiring players better/less risky than Biggio/Espinal/Grichuk.

 

Sort of a bench platoon. Biggio can cover outfield/3b/2b against righties, Espinal/Grichuk against lefties. You want Biggio to get the most plate appearances (almost all against righties), Espinal seconds most, and Grichuk 3rd, try to avoid giving Grichuk 550 plate appearances by having Biggio be the injury replacement outfielder against righties. Have a real DH so you are not using these guys, or half-injured players at DH.

 

One of my assumptions is Biggio and Espinal are really risky because of Biggio's issue with the fastball, and Espinal's low exit velocity... I'm open to arguments that both could be every day guys, I just don't see that being the consensus from what I read.

[Olerud363]

Exit velocity isn't everything. He obviously doesn't have power. He has a career .361 OBP and doesn't strike out. I don't see this changing much because he has the bat to ball skills. He derives most of his value from defense anyways, but hits .300. We have plenty of bombers. Seager would be a massive waste of money.

 

I would like nothing better than Espinal to become an every day guy. If he really could hit .280 with a .340 on base percentage he'd have value because of his defense.

 

The concern I have is that in 2022 baseball they'll just start coming right at him, never walk him, outfield will be positioned perfectly for him (in, slightly to oppo-field, plugging gaps) and he might really struggle.

 

I think I read a post or article comparing him to David Fletcher, so that's not my analysis, just what I read somewhere else.

[Daniel Labude]

I don't think the InGuardians will trade Ramirez, but if they do, they always seem to prioritize some sort of short term help along with prospect capital. Maybe they would have interest in Gurriel, but he'd have to be included along with top prospects. To me, I'd want to hold on to Moreno and Martinez, but I'd be ok moving anyone else. Montoyo didn't seem all that eager to play Kirk down the stretch so maybe he's trade bait. I don't know if Groshans, Kirk, and Gurriel even gets their attention, but something like that is probably a starting point. They may insist on Moreno + others.

 

I still think Matt Chapman is a better target. Should be cheaper to acquire and the A's are almost guaranteed to cut payroll.

 

I dont see us trading Martinez or Moreno. Seems the team has identified them as the next top prospects. Gurriel seems like a no go as well due to how close he is with Vlad, Bo, and Teo

[JFD]

Improve left/right balance - Maybe this doesn't matter, but maybe facing 100 mph right handed relievers it does.. I don't know.

 

Jays were a bottom 10 team vs righty relievers this year.

[max silver]

I still think JD is a good target as long as he and the FO can bury the hatchet.

 

He can come here, fill a huge hole but he doesn't have to be THE guy this time around, which is good because he's 36 now. Plus he only has two seasons left so it's not a long term commitment.

 

Send them Grichuk and Smith.

 

Grichuk has two years left at $10,333,333 and JD has two years left at $21,000,000 (plus a team option).

 

Then as I've said plenty, try to sign Schwarber as the 4th OF, DH and once in a while 1B.

 

1. CF Springer

2. 1B Vladdy

3. 3B Donaldson

4. SS Bichette

5. DH Schwarber

6. RF Hernandez

7. LF Gurriel

8. C Jansen / Kirk

9. 2B Biggio

 

 

That line up would murder pitchers.

 

JD would be an awesome addition but I don't see it happening. I don't necessarily think there's a lot of lingering ill will between JD and the front office but I suspect it's more due to lack of fit in the ingrained culture that would prevent a reunion. With how desperate the front office was to move out Donaldson for peanuts instead of simply offering a qualifying offer and hoping for a bounceback shows you exactly how interested they likely are in having him around the young players on the team. Maybe it's possible that they really liked the potential upside that Merryweather could bring but that whole trade just reeked of desperation and trying to get literally anything they could while removing Donaldson from the picture.

[Jimcanuck]

JD would be an awesome addition but I don't see it happening. I don't necessarily think there's a lot of lingering ill will between JD and the front office but I suspect it's more due to lack of fit in the ingrained culture that would prevent a reunion. With how desperate the front office was to move out Donaldson for peanuts instead of simply offering a qualifying offer and hoping for a bounceback shows you exactly how interested they likely are in having him around the young players on the team. Maybe it's possible that they really liked the potential upside that Merryweather could bring but that whole trade just reeked of desperation and trying to get literally anything they could while removing Donaldson from the picture.

 

The jersey exchange with Vladdy was cool. Maybe JD has mellowed out a bit in his advanced age?

[max silver]

The Seager idea isn't instead of pitching. It's assuming you also sign a starter (Ray/Stroman/Someone Else).

 

It's a risk but a less risky player, late 20s, in their prime will cost a tonne of prospects or 300 million.

 

Tanner Roark was 2 years 24 million coming off of 2 WAR - that was not a good deal, it was a risk and was terrible.

 

Seager 2 years 30 million is a risk too... The main reason I think it is a good risk is home/road splits and fWAR

 

Not sure what to make of the batted ball data, seems he is an extreme flyball hitter, and hard hit rate has declined very, very slightly last year.

 

Would you rather have Kirk, Martinez, Kloffenstein and Seager at 30 million, or Ramirez 2 year 25 million (or whatever it is) ?

 

The only Seager I would be interested in for third base duty would be Corey. There's a very good chance you would receive equal if not better overall production from some combination of Espinal/Smith/Valera for league minimum salaries vs paying Kyle Seager 15 million per year or whatever it would take. I don't think the Jays should be paying real money for marginal upgrades and would be far better off aiming for impact players given where they already fall in the win curve.

[John_Havok]

The only Seager I would be interested in for third base duty would be Corey. There's a very good chance you would receive equal if not better overall production from some combination of Espinal/Smith/Valera for league minimum salaries vs paying Kyle Seager 15 million per year or whatever it would take. I don't think the Jays should be paying real money for marginal upgrades and would be far better off aiming for impact players given where they already fall in the win curve.

 

I don’t necessarily agree. Marginal upgrades are quite valuable on an already high win projected team. The question is where you get the marginal upgrades from and how much you pay for them.

[Brownie19]

JD would be an awesome addition but I don't see it happening. I don't necessarily think there's a lot of lingering ill will between JD and the front office but I suspect it's more due to lack of fit in the ingrained culture that would prevent a reunion. With how desperate the front office was to move out Donaldson for peanuts instead of simply offering a qualifying offer and hoping for a bounceback shows you exactly how interested they likely are in having him around the young players on the team. Maybe it's possible that they really liked the potential upside that Merryweather could bring but that whole trade just reeked of desperation and trying to get literally anything they could while removing Donaldson from the picture.

 

I may be mis-remembering, but I didn't think the qualifying offer (1 year $18M or get a 2nd round comp pick) was an option in 2018. Am I wrong (again)? If so, it does seem odd we didn't go that route.

[thatoneguy]

I wouldn't say he's like Semien (whose ceiling is basically a MVP candidate), but Conforto could easily be a 3-4 WAR players next year, and from the left side which would help balance out the lineup a bit.

 

It's too bad Michael Brantley didn't sign. He was practically the perfect player for this offense.

 

f***, I forgot about that.

 

Probably have a good chance of getting into the playoffs with him in the fold.

[Brownie19]

The only Seager I would be interested in for third base duty would be Corey. There's a very good chance you would receive equal if not better overall production from some combination of Espinal/Smith/Valera for league minimum salaries vs paying Kyle Seager 15 million per year or whatever it would take. I don't think the Jays should be paying real money for marginal upgrades and would be far better off aiming for impact players given where they already fall in the win curve.

 

I tend to agree - but who the F is going to pay Seager $15M coming off his age 33 season when his wRC+ was only 99 (counting stats be damned). He's clearly in decline and there's probably a strong chance he's a 1.5 WAR player who's below average with the bat next year. If you're getting him on a 1 year, $5M deal, then sure, that minor upgrade may be worth it.

[max silver]

I don’t necessarily agree. Marginal upgrades are quite valuable on an already high win projected team. The question is where you get the marginal upgrades from and how much you pay for them.

 

I just far prefer the idea of concentrating the available dollars into true impact players instead of small upgrades. If the team loses Semien that's a massive loss of overall value in the position player core that will be hard to make up by making small upgrades with the likes of Kyle Seager and players of his ilk. Most of the position player core is pretty solid outside of a potential 3rd base upgrade and impending hole at second base, so it will be hard to replace the massive value of a Semien level player with small upgrades unless you start making wholesale changes throughout the roster. Depending on how you view Gurriel perhaps left field could be one spot to upgrade as well, but other than that the rest of the starters should be set in stone heading into 2022.

[max silver]

I may be mis-remembering, but I didn't think the qualifying offer (1 year $18M or get a 2nd round comp pick) was an option in 2018. Am I wrong (again)? If so, it does seem odd we didn't go that route.

 

From a quick glance it appears as though the qualifying offer system was first implemented in 2012.

[TheHurl]

Reece McGuire is such a fit in Atlanta who could work in a semi-platoon with TdA. They have way too many relievers/young starters committed (I think only Martin and Smyly come off the books). I'd like to give Spencer Strider a shot at a bullpen role.

[TwistedLogic]

Manager: Fire Charlie Montoyo. Bring back John Gibbons or promote John Schneider. Offer Montoyo the bench coach role, which he will likely decline.

 

OF: Get rid of Grichuk. Sign Kyle Schwarber for 15M AAV or Nick Castellanos for 20M AAV. Move Teoscar Hernandez to DH or rotate the four OFs through DH/1B.

 

3B: Option 1 - Trade for Jose Ramirez if he's available, using a package around Biggio and Martinez. Option 2 - Sign Nolan Arenado if he opts out. Option 3 - Sign Kris Bryant. Option 4 - Trade spare parts for Josh Donaldson. Keep Espinal as the starting 3B whenever Donaldson is injured. Even if Donaldson goes down long term, the position can be used to eventually try out Martinez or Moreno or patched with a midseason trade. Option 5 - Sign Chris Taylor.

 

SP: Sign Maxwell Scherzer for 96M over 3 years. Sign Noah Syndergaad for 25M over 1 year. Move Pearson back to the rotation. With Scherzer being old as s***, Manoah in his first full season, Ryu showing fatigue and Syndergaard and Pearson having injury concerns, a 6 man rotation can be good for everyone here.

 

RP: Re-sign Kirby Yates on a cheap one year deal. Try to sign Kenley Jansen, fail, then make a play for Aaron Loup.

 

Lineup:

 

1 | CF: George Springer

2 | 1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

3 | SS: Bo Bichette

4 | RF: Nick Castellanos

5 | DH: Teoscar Hernandez

6 | 3B: Josh Donaldson

7 | LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

8 | C: Alejandro Kirk

9 | 2B: Cavan Biggio

 

Rotation:

 

1 | Max Scherzer

2 | Alek Manoah

3 | Jose Berrios

4 | Noah Syndergaard

5 | Hyun-Jin Ryu

6 | Nate Pearson

 

Bullpen:

 

1 | Jordan Romano

2 | Aaron Loup

3 | Kirby Yates

4 | Julian Merryweather

5 | Tim Mayza

6 | Trevor Richards

7 | Adam Cimber

 

Bench:

 

B1 | C | Danny Jansen

B2 | IF | Santiago Espinal

 

B3/B4 | Smith, Palacios, Valera, Capra, etc.

Edited October 5, 2021 by TwistedLogic

[Olerud363]

I just far prefer the idea of concentrating the available dollars into true impact players instead of small upgrades. If the team loses Semien that's a massive loss of overall value in the position player core that will be hard to make up by making small upgrades with the likes of Kyle Seager and players of his ilk. Most of the position player core is pretty solid outside of a potential 3rd base upgrade and impending hole at second base, so it will be hard to replace the massive value of a Semien level player with small upgrades unless you start making wholesale changes throughout the roster. Depending on how you view Gurriel perhaps left field could be one spot to upgrade as well, but other than that the rest of the starters should be set in stone heading into 2022.

 

Seager had 2.5 WAR in a down year, 1.5 WAR in a 60 game season in 2020, and 3 WAR in a 100 game season in 2019.

 

He's a 2.5 WAR guy even hitting .215, who could rebound...

 

Seager isn't the Semien replacement. You'd sign Semien back or try for Story or a big trade to replace Semien.

 

Seager pushes Biggio back on the depth chart (and Biggio will get playing time anyway) and replaces whoever is behind Biggio and Espinal in the pecking order.

 

It doesn't have to be Seager, but adding 2 wins with crazy depth is worth 15 million for a 90 win team.

 

And the idea is that Rogers increases payroll so there is still money for more pitching.

[Jimcanuck]

I say, sign Kyle immediately. Then make a competitive offer for Corey. Win-win-win.

 

1B - Guerrero

2B - C. Seager

SS - Bo

3B - K. Seager

[Stangstag]

I say, sign Kyle immediately. Then make a competitive offer for Corey. Win-win-win.

 

1B - Guerrero

2B - C. Seager

SS - Bo

3B - K. Seager

 

Would love to have Corey. But I think Kyle is a realistic piece that won’t be too costly and can give us some Vetrin Presents. LH bat, fills a desperate hole.... yada yada.

 

He’s at least a league average bat, and thats always welcome. Especially if its on a 1 year deal.