Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[Laika]

May i ask why there are so many people that are so down on Ross Stripling after 1 bad year. As far as i am concerned Ryn/Pearson/Stripling are my only locks right now in that rotation. Stripling as a strong Middle Rotation starter for a contending teams for the last 4 years. Hard to read a guy after last season.

 

I also like Stripling but I'm not sure it's fair the say that he was a strong middle rotation starter for a contending team. There were parts of seasons where he looked like that, but he also pitched out of the pen a lot and in a lot of starts he was not asked to go deep. The way for the Blue Jays to optimize Stripling might be to use him in the exact same way.

[Spanky99]

I also like Stripling but I'm not sure it's fair the say that he was a strong middle rotation starter for a contending team. There were parts of seasons where he looked like that, but he also pitched out of the pen a lot and in a lot of starts he was not asked to go deep. The way for the Blue Jays to optimize Stripling might be to use him in the exact same way.

 

Piggy back with Ray, like late last season.

[Sammy225]

I also like Stripling but I'm not sure it's fair the say that he was a strong middle rotation starter for a contending team. There were parts of seasons where he looked like that, but he also pitched out of the pen a lot and in a lot of starts he was not asked to go deep. The way for the Blue Jays to optimize Stripling might be to use him in the exact same way.

 

Thats fair. I think he can be a valuable piece to our staff.

 

Has it been solidified that Walker is not coming back?

[Spanky99]

Thats fair. I think he can be a valuable piece to our staff.

 

Has it been solidified that Walker is not coming back?

 

Bigger fish to fry, bro.

[Laika]

Thats fair. I think he can be a valuable piece to our staff.

 

Has it been solidified that Walker is not coming back?

 

No but it seems like Toronto has loftier targets than Walker, and Walker might be looking for too much money. He might end up with Toronto if they both are super sad and take their 10th choice to 2021 prom.

[G-Snarls]

Angels should absolutely sign Walker

[Sammy225]

No but it seems like Toronto has loftier targets than Walker, and Walker might be looking for too much money. He might end up with Toronto if they both are super sad and take their 10th choice to 2021 prom.

 

Maybe i lack optimism but i don't see us getting Bauer (i think angels if not they fail), and then after him you got Tanaka and Paxton and they are both question marks at this point. Walker is not that far below them and i think could be more valuable than them. If we can get Sugano that would be great but i don't see any overly better options unless someone is on the market that i am missing.

[connorp]

Not a popular opinion here but I’m hoping Jays sign Odorizzi. Too small a sample size to judge last year but at least the velo increase was still there that he apparently worked on at a baseball factory before the prior year

 

Obviously I’d rather have Bauer (or trade for an ace)... prob Paxton too (only if they signed someone else with Paxton though).

But I think JO is a legit target. Him and one other guy like Walker.

[Laika]

Maybe i lack optimism but i don't see us getting Bauer (i think angels if not they fail), and then after him you got Tanaka and Paxton and they are both question marks at this point. Walker is not that far below them and i think could be more valuable than them. If we can get Sugano that would be great but i don't see any overly better options unless someone is on the market that i am missing.

 

Odorizzi should be better than Walker. There are a number of buy-lows and old guys: Kluber, Quintana, Porcello, Archer, Richards, Happ, Shoemaker, Dick Mountain, etc. Whether any of them are preferable to Walker is hard to say. I am not a huge fan of Walker's indicators from 2020 but he is the youngest option (him, Rodon, and Aaron Sanchez are all 28).

[Laika]

Not a popular opinion here but I’m hoping Jays sign Odorizzi. Too small a sample size to judge last year but at least the velo increase was still there that he apparently worked on at a baseball factory before the prior year

 

Obviously I’d rather have Bauer (or trade for an ace)... prob Paxton too (only if they signed someone else with Paxton though).

But I think JO is a legit target. Him and one other guy like Walker.

 

I think Toronto has JO high enough on their preference list. They wanted him last year.

[glory]

After Bauer, I'm not sure there is a right answer as far as which SP to sign. There are a lot of pitchers coming off down years or injury, and a pitcher like Tanaka whose arm will always be considered a risk. Sugano could easily be the 2nd best SP on the market despite the uncertainty of how he will perform in the Majors. I'm sure there will be at least one SP out of the group of risks (Odorizzi, Kluber, Paxton, Quintana, Tanaka, Archer, etc) that will end up having a great season in 2021, but it's really a coin flip, and hard to know whether those pitchers would even want to sign with the Jays if their intention is to increase their value for a future payday. Ray falls under that same group, but he just happened to pitch here for a month so the Jays got the advantage of building a relationship with him.

 

If Passan is correct and the Jays could steal Springer from the Mets, then a Springer/Kim/Sugano off season would be pretty good, IMO. Even if Springer signs with the Mets, the Jays could spread the $25m that they would have paid Springer into multiple holes (ex. JBJ and another SP). CF might be the hardest position to fill if Springer and JBJ sign elsewhere, but other than that, the Jays are in a good spot.

[Deadpool]

I think Toronto has JO high enough on their preference list. They wanted him last year.

 

Who doesn't prefer a good JO?

[Jimcanuck]

After Bauer, I'm not sure there is a right answer as far as which SP to sign. There are a lot of pitchers coming off down years or injury, and a pitcher like Tanaka whose arm will always be considered a risk. Sugano could easily be the 2nd best SP on the market despite the uncertainty of how he will perform in the Majors. I'm sure there will be at least one SP out of the group of risks (Odorizzi, Kluber, Paxton, Quintana, Tanaka, Archer, etc) that will end up having a great season in 2021, but it's really a coin flip, and hard to know whether those pitchers would even want to sign with the Jays if their intention is to increase their value for a future payday. Ray falls under that same group, but he just happened to pitch here for a month so the Jays got the advantage of building a relationship with him.

 

If Passan is correct and the Jays could steal Springer from the Mets, then a Springer/Kim/Sugano off season would be pretty good, IMO. Even if Springer signs with the Mets, the Jays could spread the $25m that they would have paid Springer into multiple holes (ex. JBJ and another SP). CF might be the hardest position to fill if Springer and JBJ sign elsewhere, but other than that, the Jays are in a good spot.

 

"pretty good"? It would be awesome.

[glory]

"pretty good"? It would be awesome.

 

That too.

[Deadpool]

"pretty good"? It would be awesome.

 

Yeah, Springer/Kim/Sugano (and ideally another mid-tier starter, and a few good bullpen pieces) would be my ideal off season. I've kinda soured on the Lindor idea, I just think he's going to cost too much in terms of human capital and future salary. He's objectively a great addition to the team, but what else could those players and that money buy?

[connorp]

We hear DJL is pushing for 5 years, JTR $200m...

I wonder if Springer is pushing for 6/150 rather than 5/125. Makes him a little less attractive if that’s the case. I’d still be ok with it if that’s what it took because Mets offered 5/125 and were first choice

[Laika]

If JTR is truly asking for $200m then his agent probably f***ed him out of like $30m+.

 

How do they not read the market and just take the Mets best offer? Chance they got greedy, lost the Mets, and now will have to settle for like $90M from the Phillies or something.

[Ray]

Bauers 11 starts in 2020, the opponents team OPS+, and their runs scored rank:

 

3 against MIL, 88 OPS+ (13th in NL runs scored)

2 against DET, 89 OPS+ (12th in AL runs scored)

2 against CHC, 90 OPS+ (10th in NL runs scored)

2 against PIT, 74 OPS+ (15th in NL runs scored)

1 against KCR, 92 OPS+ (13th in AL runs scored)

1 against CHW, 113 OPS+ (2nd in AL runs scored)

 

There's a case to be made that his true talent level isn't what he showed. He faced a total of two good offenses all season. The Braves in the playoffs, where he was really good, and the White Sox, who were slumping badly towards the end of the season when he faced them. Whoever ends up paying Bauer $35M AAV thinking he's a bonafide #1 may end up regretting it when he slides in as a good #2.

[max silver]

Bauer had a monster 2018 season as well with the Indians, so it's not like 2020 is the only good season he's had in his career. He was good for 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP/3.14 xFIP and 5.8 FWAR. His numbers were off a little in 2019, but he revealed that he was dealing with partially torn ankle ligaments and back spasms throughout that season that affected his mechanics.

[L54]

Bauer had a monster 2018 season as well with the Indians, so it's not like 2020 is the only good season he's had in his career. He was good for 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP/3.14 xFIP and 5.8 FWAR. His numbers were off a little in 2019, but he revealed that he was dealing with partially torn ankle ligaments and back spasms throughout that season that affected his mechanics.

 

I bet he faced a lot of bad offenses in 2018 too.

[max silver]

I bet he faced a lot of bad offenses in 2018 too.

 

You can say the same of every starting pitcher in baseball though. He's still putting up elite numbers against MLB competition either way in 2 out of the last 3 seasons.

[Ray]

You can say the same of every starting pitcher in baseball though. He's still putting up elite numbers against MLB competition either way in 2 out of the last 3 seasons.

 

And put up roughly league average starter numbers (career 99 ERA+) in the 6 seasons before that. There's a larger track record that dictates he's more just 'good' than elite.

 

He'll improve any rotation he joins, I just think giving an AAV close to Gerrit Cole for a guy with 1.5 elite seasons is a little dangerous. If you think he's figured something out and will join that upper echelon of starters and be more consistent going forward, I see an argument for that. There are red flags though.

[max silver]

And put up roughly league average starter numbers (career 99 ERA+) in the 6 seasons before that. There's a larger track record that dictates he's more just 'good' than elite.

 

He'll improve any rotation he joins, I just think giving an AAV close to Gerrit Cole for a guy with 1.5 elite seasons is a little dangerous. If you think he's figured something out and will join that upper echelon of starters and be more consistent going forward, I see an argument for that. There are red flags though.

 

I think the guy took a clear step forward in 2018. What are the red flags with regards to Bauer? He's not getting a Gerrit Cole 10 year contract, if it only takes 5 years to lock him up then that's a no brainer decision.

 

During the last 3 seasons he's accumulated the 6th most pitcher FWAR, I really don't get how people are viewing him as a one year flash in the pan.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

[wamco]

Urena back

[BTS]

What people are also missing about Bauer is that if he's healthy he could start 40 games and throw 250 innings. That masks some decline performance.

[Spanky99]

Per MLBTR...

 

The Blue Jays and free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim “have been in touch,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The 25-year-old Kim hasn’t played in the majors yet, but he starred with the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization from 2014-20 and currently ranks as one of the top free agents on the market. It’s unclear where he would play in Toronto because the club has Bo Bichette occupying short, but Kim may be a fit at either second or third base.

[Ehjays]

What people are also missing about Bauer is that if he's healthy he could start 40 games and throw 250 innings. That masks some decline performance.

 

Bauer scoring the Blue Jays Fans today

[Carlos Danger]

Shapiro will be on the Lead off Spot on MLB radio Sirius/XM @ 9:30 ET

 

They had Montoyo on earlier, Charlie was taking hits for his looks and being short.. But the key part was, he said Jays are prioritizing run prevention over anything else this off season.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Carlos Danger

[Spanky99]

Shapiro will be on the Lead off Spot on MLB radio Sirius/XM @ 9:30 ET

 

They had Montoyo om earlier, Charlie was taking hits for his looks and being short.. But the key part was, he said Jays are prioritizing run prevention over anything else this off season.

 

I guess this is over now, is it the same as MLBN???

[Carlos Danger]

I guess this is over now, is it the same as MLBN???

 

If you have access to the App/online you can rewind and listen.