Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[BlueRocky]

There’s a cluster of mediocre bats on the roster and bench. This is a symptom of Atkins accumulating a bunch of replacement level talent hoping one of them will pan out. One kinda did pan out with Teoscar. And Rowdy remains to be seen, so it’s hard to judge their strategy.

 

But it looks like a few trades are necessary to consolidate a few of their minor assets and make a meaningful upgrade, the roster needs a bit of clean up work. A lot of the fringe dudes will be rule-5 eligible and we can’t (and shouldn’t) keep a bunch of replaceable dudes on roster. They need impact talent and need to stop exclusively shopping in the bargain bin. Ryu was a good first step.

[Terminator]

There’s a cluster of mediocre bats on the roster and bench. This is a symptom of Atkins accumulating a bunch of replacement level talent hoping one of them will pan out. One kinda did pan out with Teoscar. And Rowdy remains to be seen, so it’s hard to judge their strategy.

 

But it looks like a few trades are necessary to consolidate a few of their minor assets and make a meaningful upgrade, the roster needs a bit of clean up work. A lot of the fringe dudes will be rule-5 eligible and we can’t (and shouldn’t) keep a bunch of replaceable dudes on roster.

 

The 60 game season really hampered that strategy. Another 100 games would have been great to evaluate all of these guys. I agree that we will probably see a decent number of trades this year.

[Stangstag]

2016-2020

 

2241 PA, 101 wRC+, .242/.290/.477, 5.8 BB%

 

He's the same guy except now with less exit velo and less strike outs.

 

I like how you conveniently left out his 2015 season. Either way im looking at his seasons withe Jays. Yeah his 2019 sucked but he had 115wRC+ in 2018 and 112 in 2020.

[glory]

I like how you conveniently left out his 2015 season. Either way im looking at his seasons withe Jays. Yeah his 2019 sucked but he had 115wRC+ in 2018 and 112 in 2020.

 

I used his last 5 years. That's a pretty big sample. The 2015 season is irrelevant because it was six seasons ago and a complete outlier compared to the rest of his career. He's been ~100 wRC+ for the last five years. Some years a little better, some years a little worse, but that's what he's been. That's what he's likely going to be in a full time role, give or take. Maybe he pulls off a late career breakout at age 30, but I wouldn't count on it.

[glory]

There’s a cluster of mediocre bats on the roster and bench. This is a symptom of Atkins accumulating a bunch of replacement level talent hoping one of them will pan out. One kinda did pan out with Teoscar. And Rowdy remains to be seen, so it’s hard to judge their strategy.

 

But it looks like a few trades are necessary to consolidate a few of their minor assets and make a meaningful upgrade, the roster needs a bit of clean up work. A lot of the fringe dudes will be rule-5 eligible and we can’t (and shouldn’t) keep a bunch of replaceable dudes on roster. They need impact talent and need to stop exclusively shopping in the bargain bin. Ryu was a good first step.

 

Yeah I expect a bunch of trades/roster moves this winter, especially if the minor league contraction or whatever the hell that is ends up happening. Given where the Jays are in their competitive window (not quite a playoff team but maybe a few pieces away), it might make sense to trade prospects for big leaguers this winter. With Kirk on the 40 man, wouldn't shock me if Moreno is moved as I believe he is Rule 5 eligible.

[RobinThicc]

Do we really think Merryweather can be stretched out still? The guy pitched 0 innings in 2018, 6 innings in 2019 and only managed 13 innings this year before heading back to the IL yet again.

 

Merryweather will never be a starter, it would be a waste of time. He is what he is at this point. Ill take it.

[saskjayfan]

Jays are much more likely to believe in Grichuk, than Rowdy who caps at 1.5-2.0 WAR. It's funny how recency bias comes into play in 3 week hot streaks.

 

When Rowdy puts up a 140+ wRC+ next year you can take your 1.5 WAR and shove it where the sun don't shine! Defensively he's an above 1st baseman to go along with that bat. You'd think "recency bias" would have some merit when you're talking about a young developing player who meaningfully cut his strike out rate and had his walk rate tick up. We're also talking about a player with a very good swing and a ton of power.

 

Why would the Jay believe in Gruchuk and his ability to take it to the next level when he's been in the league for 7 years. I'd say we have a pretty good handle on what Grichuk is.

[Spanky99]

When Rowdy puts up a 140+ wRC+ next year you can take your 1.5 WAR and shove it where the sun don't shine! Defensively he's an above 1st baseman to go along with that bat. You'd think "recency bias" would have some merit when you're talking about a young developing player who meaningfully cut his strike out rate and had his walk rate tick up. We're also talking about a player with a very good swing and a ton of power.

 

Why would the Jay believe in Gruchuk and his ability to take it to the next level when he's been in the league for 7 years. I'd say we have a pretty good handle on what Grichuk is.

 

Your Rowdy love is going full tilt, lol.

[Spanky99]

Ross Atkins Discusses Blue Jays’ Offseason

 

By Mark Polishuk | October 3, 2020 at 10:46am CDT

 

After a 95-loss season in 2019, the Blue Jays’ rebuild began to bear fruit in 2020 as the team went 32-28 and earned a wild card playoff berth. This result has left the Jays eager for more, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi) that despite all the financial uncertainty caused by the pandemic, “the quickest way to recovery is winning. The quickest way to getting our business back to a very good financial spot is winning and our ownership knows that.”

 

The Blue Jays have their own unique set of revenue issues to deal with heading into 2021, such as not yet knowing if they’ll be permitted to play in Toronto next season. In terms of pure player payroll, however, the Jays are in better shape than most teams. The Blue Jays have less than $54MM on the books for next season since so many of Toronto’s key players have yet to reach salary arbitration, or (like Teoscar Hernandez) are only just entering the arb process for the first time.

 

This flexibility allows the Jays to pursue upgrades in several different ways, and Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility of another big-splash acquisition like the Hyun Jin Ryu signing last offseason. “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact….We’re going to continue to think about how we can build upon this group, and hopefully it’s both complementary as well as making as making a really high impact,” Atkins said.

 

Speaking of the broader offseason landscape, Atkins noted that “the COVID-19 pandemic hit the finances of different clubs in different ways, creating an extremely uncertain outlook as we eventually approach free agency. Some believe this could open up the trade market, with teams more willing to use prospects over cash to acquire talent entering 2021.” It’s safe to assume the Blue Jays will look into both trades and free agent signings, though Atkins’ comment could be interpreted in two different ways — the Jays could be one of those teams that prefer trades to signings, or they could use their payroll space to be more aggressive in free agency if other clubs are holding back.

 

Looking at the 2020-21 free agent class, such names as J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu stand out at the top of the market, if Toronto planned to look into the very upper tier of available players. Since Ryu and Nate Pearson seem like the only locks for next year’s Jays rotation, pitching is an obvious need, so the Blue Jays could be more apt to explore signing Bauer or a known AL East commodity in Masahiro Tanaka. Re-signing Taijuan Walker wouldn’t be as expensive as those other names, though Walker is sure to attract a lot of attention given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.

 

In regards to position players, Atkins said the front office will “stay open-minded” about possible additions. Davidi speculates that shortstop could be a target position, as the Jays have had interest in free agents Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius in the past, and the club could also revisit trade talks with the Indians over Francisco Lindor. Bo Bichette would move off shortstop in this scenario, with Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely handling second and third base in some combination.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Trading for Lindor and extending him would be an incredible add to the position player core. An above average switch hitting bat with power and speed, and a gold glove level short stop who is just turning 27. Plus moving Bichette to 3rd would be an upgrade at that position as well. What's the cost though? Probably one of Jansen, Kirk or Moreno, or Orelvis Martinez....or worse both a catcher and Martinez??

 

Or would it be better to try and sign Simmons or Gregorius without giving up any prospect capital and wait for Groshans/Martin and Orelvis to develop?

 

Neither of those guys move the needle as much as Lindor would obviously, but they would still improve the team defense while adding roughly a league average bat for a lesser cost.

[Carlos Danger]

Trading for Lindor and extending him would be an incredible add to the position player core. An above average switch hitting bat with power and speed, and a gold glove level short stop who is just turning 27. Plus moving Bichette to 3rd would be an upgrade at that position as well. What's the cost though? Probably one of Jansen, Kirk or Moreno, or Orelvis Martinez....or worse both a catcher and Martinez??

 

Or would it be better to try and sign Simmons or Gregorius without giving up any prospect capital and wait for Groshans/Martin and Orelvis to develop?

 

Neither of those guys move the needle as much as Lindor would obviously, but they would still improve the team defense while adding roughly a league average bat for a lesser cost.

 

Where are you getting that if we obtained Lindor we would move Bichette to 3rd? Not sure he has the arm to play there. His obvious position would be 2b and then move Biggio to 3rd or OF until help arrives.

[Spanky99]

Where are you getting that if we obtained Lindor we would move Bichette to 3rd? Not sure he has the arm to play there. His obvious position would be 2b and then move Biggio to 3rd or OF until help arrives.

 

Bichette's arm is adequate, better than Biggio's? A SS arm is always strongest in the IF, by rule.

[Carlos Danger]

Bichette's arm is adequate, better than Biggio's? A SS arm is always strongest in the IF, by rule.

 

Ok, maybe I got the arm strength part wrong.. But I have never heard of Bichette moving to 3b. I have always heard he would go to 2B and Biggio, Groshans in the future or someone else would play 3B.

[Spanky99]

Ok, maybe I got the arm strength part wrong.. But I have never heard of Bichette moving to 3b. I have always heard he would go to 2B and Biggio, Groshans in the future or someone else would play 3B.

 

Why not, he'd be a fantastic upgrade, if the Birds found an upgrade of course.

[Grant77]

I'd prefer to just pay up for a 3B like LeMahieu or Turner. Giving up a ton of assets for Lindor and handing him a mega contract is not the kind of move that we need to make at this juncture.

 

By moving Bichette when it is not at all necessary, we sacrifice a lot of the upside that Lindor would offer over a guy like LeMahieu. It isn't even clear if we'd come out ahead with Lindor, even without considering the asset cost.

[Laika]

I'd prefer to just pay up for a 3B like LeMahieu or Turner. Giving up a ton of assets for Lindor and handing him a mega contract is not the kind of move that we need to make at this juncture.

 

By moving Bichette when it is not at all necessary, we sacrifice a lot of the upside that Lindor would offer over a guy like LeMahieu. It isn't even clear if we'd come out ahead with Lindor, even without considering the asset cost.

 

Fine in theory but it probably takes a shocking overpay to get DJL or Turner to come to Toronto, over their current teams who have all the money in the world and should be trying to retain.

[Grant77]

Fine in theory but it probably takes a shocking overpay to get DJL or Turner to come to Toronto, over their current teams who have all the money in the world and should be trying to retain.

 

I think we're going to see a lot of unexpected moves in this year's free agent market. That could mean big money teams making uncharacteristic cost cutting moves and it could mean unexpected players like Kris Bryant perhaps entering the market.

 

The point is, there are several available impact players at 2B and 3B that probably offer us better value than adding a shortstop when there isn't an obvious need at that position. It probably also upsets our best player, which needs to be considered.

[Jimcanuck]

If Toronto pursues Lindor it won't be by trade, it will be as a FA at the end of 2021.

 

Signings this offseason probably pitching and locking up a couple of roster guys long term.

[THANOS]

If Toronto pursues Lindor it won't be by trade, it will be as a FA at the end of 2021.

 

Signings this offseason probably pitching and locking up a couple of roster guys long term.

 

Yeah I'd definitely like to see some long-term extensions for sure. Vlad could probably be had for cheaper than a year ago. I'd try and extend Bo, Pearson, and Teo as well. Kirk could probably be had for a very cheap extension given his humble beginnings. Lock up the core imo.

 

For SP, I like signing Bauer. I also wonder if someone like Carrasco would be available via trade as well, and what that would cost now, give his age and recent history.

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah I'd definitely like to see some long-term extensions for sure. Vlad could probably be had for cheaper than a year ago. I'd try and extend Bo, Pearson, and Teo as well. Kirk could probably be had for a very cheap extension given his humble beginnings. Lock up the core imo.

 

For SP, I like signing Bauer. I also wonder if someone like Carrasco would be available via trade as well, and what that would cost now, give his age and recent history.

 

I would try and lock up Cavan, Bo, and Vlad this offseason. With his history, would rather see Teo continue what he did for at least another half season before talking long term deal, and too early on Pearson IMO.

[Dick_Pole]

The chances of locking up the core - right before the CBA expires and during a pandemic when we don't know how many games will be played next year, if fans will be allowed in the stadium or if the team is even allowed in the country - is slim to nil unless it's a massive underpay. So get that right out of your minds. Using the budget space to overpay on short term deals in order to accelerate the competitive window is what this team needs to be doing.

[Jimcanuck]

The chances of locking up the core - right before the CBA expires and during a pandemic when we don't know how many games will be played next year, if fans will be allowed in the stadium or if the team is even allowed in the country - is slim to nil unless it's a massive underpay. So get that right out of your minds. Using the budget space to overpay on short term deals in order to accelerate the competitive window is what this team needs to be doing.

 

Disagree. Extending the young MLB core now while the Jays have a top 5 farm will mean a very competitive team starting in a few years and extending for quite some time. No need to rush the process.

[Dick_Pole]

Disagree. Extending the young MLB core now while the Jays have a top 5 farm will mean a very competitive team starting in a few years and extending for quite some time. No need to rush the process.

 

I'm not saying I disagree with the idea. I just don't think it will happen given the unique circumstances.

[Boxcar]

Ok, so we can't talk about the pandemic. Understood

I am sorry. We can mention it, right? But just on the side, like vaguely allude to it?

[connorp]

Ok, so we can't talk about the pandemic. Understood

I am sorry. We can mention it, right? But just on the side, like vaguely allude to it?

 

Can you believe T**m* got C**i*? Crazy

[Boxcar]

Can you believe T**m* got C**i*? Crazy

 

No idea what you're talking about. I have no desire to break forum rules and discuss something mildly interesting

[Dick_Pole]

No idea what you're talking about. I have no desire to break forum rules and discuss something mildly interesting

 

You'll be happy to know that I read your comment before it was deleted just like you got to quote and comment on mine before it was deleted.

 

The ability to play in Toronto next year is the #1 biggest issue facing this team and until this uncertainty is unsettled it puts the Jays at a distinct disadvantage versus all 29 other clubs. And we know this decision is 100% in the hands of the Feds because Ontario gave the green light (though if things get worse maybe that will change). The NHL is talking about starting the season in early December which means hopefully there is some kind of framework in place that the Jays can use before heading into the winter meetings. Now hopefully this post is non-political enough to not get deleted.

[XAEA12]

Boxcar = admin = Ju1ced = colossal prick... amirite or amirite?

[Spanky99]

lol

[RobinThicc]

 

Any good points made in the article?