Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[Jimcanuck]

Simmons, Didi.. Maybe make a splash for Lindor? I'll take those options versus an unproven MLB player.

 

Will cost more though. And given the players the Jays already have, they can afford to take the Kim risk along with the higher upside he has compared to Simmons and Didi in their decline years.

[dineke]

Recent hitters from the KBO have done quite well off the top of my head. Eric Thames and that Kang dude. I don't how this guy's bat compares to them over in the kbo.

[gruber92]

Will cost more though. And given the players the Jays already have, they can afford to take the Kim risk along with the higher upside he has compared to Simmons and Didi in their decline years.

 

If you can Simmons on a two year deal that would fill the gap until SS gets figured out long term. What would it take to sign Simmons? 2/20?

[Jimcanuck]

If you can Simmons on a two year deal that would fill the gap until SS gets figured out long term. What would it take to sign Simmons? 2/20?

 

Probably something like that. Keep in mind that Simmons has spent a fair bit of time on the IL the last few years.

 

I wouldn't mind a Simmons signing, but think Kim makes more sense for the team ie. he should be target #1.

[Laika]

Pretty sure Andrelton Simmons opted out of 2020 rather than accept a trade to the Blue Jays so good luck there

[glory]

I think people are underestimating how difficult it will be to attract players to the Jays this winter. Players won't know whether they'll play home games in Canada, Buffalo, or Dunedin. They won't know whether they'll be playing half their games in a big league park or a minor league park. I know at the end of the day money/term talks, so if the Jays overpay they'll have a shot, but it's still going to be a factor. I'm talking about notable free agents, not the FAs who will scramble for any job they can get.

 

Kim makes sense from an age perspective. I don't know how good he is or good he can be in the future, but if you can get a FA at age 25 and plug him into your lineup right away, then that's a pretty good outcome if he's any good. I don't know if Ryu can be a factor at all, or if he's even someone who will make an effort to recruit, but that might help as well.

[max silver]

I think people are underestimating how difficult it will be to attract players to the Jays this winter. Players won't know whether they'll play home games in Canada, Buffalo, or Dunedin. They won't know whether they'll be playing half their games in a big league park or a minor league park. I know at the end of the day money/term talks, so if the Jays overpay they'll have a shot, but it's still going to be a factor. I'm talking about notable free agents, not the FAs who will scramble for any job they can get.

 

Kim makes sense from an age perspective. I don't know how good he is or good he can be in the future, but if you can get a FA at age 25 and plug him into your lineup right away, then that's a pretty good outcome if he's any good. I don't know if Ryu can be a factor at all, or if he's even someone who will make an effort to recruit, but that might help as well.

 

Jays historically have to overpay for free agents anyway so that's already factored into any free agent signings no matter where they end up playing.

[glory]

Jays historically have to overpay for free agents anyway so that's already factored into any free agent signings no matter where they end up playing.

 

Convincing a player to play in Canada comes with disadvantages but telling big leaguers to potentially spend half a season in a minor league facility comes with different challenges. It’s hard either way, but this adds more to it than the norm.

[Stangstag]

Jays historically have to overpay for free agents anyway so that's already factored into any free agent signings no matter where they end up playing.

 

I don’t think the “overpay” factor qualifies for any non-american free agents. For a Korean coming over to North America, its already a foreign country and I don’t think Canada vs USA matters much if at all.

 

I would also think Ryu would be HUGE in attracting any Korean players.

[Jimcanuck]

I don’t think the “overpay” factor qualifies for any non-american free agents. For a Korean coming over to North America, its already a foreign country and I don’t think Canada vs USA matters much if at all.

 

I would also think Ryu would be HUGE in attracting any Korean players.

 

Agree 100% and I would suggest that many internationals would prefer Canada, under the present circumstances.

[G-Snarls]

I don’t think the “overpay” factor qualifies for any non-american free agents. For a Korean coming over to North America, its already a foreign country and I don’t think Canada vs USA matters much if at all.

 

I would also think Ryu would be HUGE in attracting any Korean players.

 

Agreed

 

I don't think we ever overpaid for signing/extending any Dominican born players.

 

I think we paid fair market value for Ryu.

 

Russell Martin is Canadian and we paid big $ but he was a coveted free agent. We certainly didn't get any discount.

 

We haven't really signed any major American free agents in a very long time, like the 90s/00s.

[JuneBug]

Agree 100% and I would suggest that many internationals would prefer Canada, under the present circumstances.

 

and what circumstances might those be? this is delusional talk - coronavirus is statistically a non issue for young healthy people, and other than that Canada has nothing tangible to offer. Even of the Jays long term players over the years, how many actually moved to TO area full time?

 

ETA: I believe even Buck Martinez has his main residence in Florida , LOL

Edited October 10, 2020 by JuneBug

[JuneBug]

see below

[JuneBug]

Convincing a player to play in Canada comes with disadvantages but telling big leaguers to potentially spend half a season in a minor league facility comes with different challenges. It’s hard either way, but this adds more to it than the norm.

 

If the Jays are playing out of Buffalo or Dunedin, etc, in 2021, we will have MUCH BIGGER issues than playing in a 'minor league' stadium.

[Jimcanuck]

and what circumstances might those be? this is delusional talk - coronavirus is statistically a non issue for young healthy people, and other than that Canada has nothing tangible to offer. Even of the Jays long term players over the years, how many actually moved to TO area full time?

 

ETA: I believe even Buck Martinez has his main residence in Florida , LOL

 

Not many, no different than for any other team. Except Cleveland. No player in their right mind moves to Cleveland.

 

Did you notice my post referred to "internationals"?

Edited October 10, 2020 by Jimcanuck

[max silver]

MLBtraderumors.com has a survey up asking about whether you would prefer to sign Stroman or Gausman as a free agent. My knee jerk reaction based on past performance for each pitcher led me to immediately pick Stroman, but after taking a look at Gausman's 2020 numbers I was very tempted to switch my pick to Gausman. He had a really nice (partial) season for the Giants. He managed to up his fastball velocity by over a full MPH and also increased his 4 seam spin rate as well, so it appears his stuff has ticked up a bit. He managed a big jump in his K rate, improving his previous career best 10.03 K/9 up to 11.92 K/9. The biggest change I can see that may explain his newfound success is a marked change in pitch usage, he's basically dumped his slider the last few seasons and gone exclusively fastball/splitter. You really can't argue with the results, 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP/3.49 xERA. I think he's likely to be more successful going forward than Taijuan Walker and would prefer the Jays take a shot at signing him for the rotation. I don't think he'll require a very long term deal due to lack of sustained success in his career, maybe 2-3 years gets it done.

[Jimcanuck]

MLBtraderumors.com has a survey up asking about whether you would prefer to sign Stroman or Gausman as a free agent. My knee jerk reaction based on past performance for each pitcher led me to immediately pick Stroman, but after taking a look at Gausman's 2020 numbers I was very tempted to switch my pick to Gausman. He had a really nice (partial) season for the Giants. He managed to up his fastball velocity by over a full MPH and also increased his 4 seam spin rate as well, so it appears his stuff has ticked up a bit. He managed a big jump in his K rate, improving his previous career best 10.03 K/9 up to 11.92 K/9. The biggest change I can see that may explain his newfound success is a marked change in pitch usage, he's basically dumped his slider the last few seasons and gone exclusively fastball/splitter. You really can't argue with the results, 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP/3.49 xERA. I think he's likely to be more successful going forward than Taijuan Walker and would prefer the Jays take a shot at signing him for the rotation. I don't think he'll require a very long term deal due to lack of sustained success in his career, maybe 2-3 years gets it done.

 

Ya I thought of Gausman, he benefited from a move to the 3rd most pitcher friendly park. Home FIP 2.46, away 3.87. Both numbers are good, but I don't think these results for 1/3 of a season put him past Stroman.

 

Gausman in ALE most likely reverts back to the pitcher he has been for his career.

[max silver]

Ya I thought of Gausman, he benefited from a move to the 3rd most pitcher friendly park. Home FIP 2.46, away 3.87. Both numbers are good, but I don't think these results for 1/3 of a season put him past Stroman.

 

Gausman in ALE most likely reverts back to the pitcher he has been for his career.

 

I had checked out the home/away splits as well, they are pretty weird when you take a closer look. For some odd reason he struck out far fewer batters on the road than at home. Away from home he was beat up a few times by the Dodgers and the Rockies, so no real shame there given how good the Dodgers offense is and how hard it is to pitch at Coors Field. It's far too short a sample size to make any definitive statements after only 10 starts but I really don't think he would just magically revert back to mediocrity just because he'd be pitching in the AL East. I see a pitcher that looks to have improved his stuff and tweaked his repertoire for maximum success, this likely isn't the same pitcher he was when he pitched with the Orioles.

[Jimcanuck]

I had checked out the home/away splits as well, they are pretty weird when you take a closer look. For some odd reason he struck out far fewer batters on the road than at home. Away from home he was beat up a few times by the Dodgers and the Rockies, so no real shame there given how good the Dodgers offense is and how hard it is to pitch at Coors Field. It's far too short a sample size to make any definitive statements after only 10 starts but I really don't think he would just magically revert back to mediocrity just because he'd be pitching in the AL East. I see a pitcher that looks to have improved his stuff and tweaked his repertoire for maximum success, this likely isn't the same pitcher he was when he pitched with the Orioles.

 

Maybe, he's shown flashes before, like when he went to Atlanta. But ends up going back to the frustrating pitcher he always has been.

 

He'd definitely be a welcome addition to the Jays rotation as a #4 or #5 innings eater. Although he'd be #3 on the depth chart as it stands.

[connorp]

Maybe, he's shown flashes before, like when he went to Atlanta. But ends up going back to the frustrating pitcher he always has been.

 

He'd definitely be a welcome addition to the Jays rotation as a #4 or #5 innings eater. Although he'd be #3 on the depth chart as it stands.

 

Basically agree on Gausman but after Bauer it’s pretty much Gausman, along with a handful of other guys. Jays should sign two outside of making any trades.

[Jimcanuck]

Basically agree on Gausman but after Bauer it’s pretty much Gausman, along with a handful of other guys. Jays should sign two outside of making any trades.

 

I would rank them:

 

Bauer

Stroman

Paxton

Richards

Gausman

Ray

Odorizzi

Archer

Tanaka

 

Assuming Pirates do not pick up the option, and Kluber is done.

 

Archer is actually an interesting target. 3.75 FIP in 2018, and apparently battled injuries in 2019. A healthy Archer could be relied on for a sub 4.00 FIP.

[connorp]

Pretty aggressive on Richards. One years worth of starts across the last 5 years and not like he’s dominant again

Paxton clearly is #2 talent wise IMO but it’ll be interesting what teams offer him

[max silver]

Pretty aggressive on Richards. One years worth of starts across the last 5 years and not like he’s dominant again

Paxton clearly is #2 talent wise IMO but it’ll be interesting what teams offer him

 

Both guys scare me with their injury histories, Paxton in particular with the back injuries and forearm concern that popped up this season. I bet Odorizzi is kicking himself for not taking the Jays offer last offseason, I'd be curious to see how far apart the two sides were. He may be a decent bounceback candidate if he's willing to take a pillow contract to build some value.

[Jimcanuck]

Pretty aggressive on Richards. One years worth of starts across the last 5 years and not like he’s dominant again

Paxton clearly is #2 talent wise IMO but it’ll be interesting what teams offer him

 

When healthy, Richards has been quite good, he's a talented pitcher. 3.68 FIP for his career. But yes, probably aggressive given his history.

[glory]

If Paxton can pass a physical, then he's probably the best combination of affordable (due to injury) and upside. Although he still held a grudge with the Jays org even after he was traded to the Yankees, as he brought it up on a NY radio interview after the trade. I'm sure Shapiro (and money) can fix that, but whatever AA did to him during the draft must have been pretty bad.

 

Jays seemed pretty serious about Odorizzi last winter too, so wouldn't be surprised if that is revisited without the QO involved.

[43211234]

Potential Rule 5 guys:

 

Gabriel Moreno

Otto Lopez

Kevin Smith

Josh Winckowski

Chavez Young

Ty Tice

Samad Taylor

Ryan Noda

Riley Adams

 

 

You have to protect Moreno. Ty Tice is the type of guy that doesn't get protected and someone takes a flier on him. Winckowski could maybe get grabbed so I think he's a debatable case to add to the 40-man. Otto Lopez is probably too raw for a team to use a positional player roster spot on him. Still maybe worth protecting him.

 

So, they probably need two or three 40-man spots need for these guys, I think.

[Laika]

If Paxton can pass a physical, then he's probably the best combination of affordable (due to injury) and upside. Although he still held a grudge with the Jays org even after he was traded to the Yankees, as he brought it up on a NY radio interview after the trade. I'm sure Shapiro (and money) can fix that, but whatever AA did to him during the draft must have been pretty bad.

 

Jays seemed pretty serious about Odorizzi last winter too, so wouldn't be surprised if that is revisited without the QO involved.

 

Physicals often are not a binary pass/fail thing. Most of these guys have funky s*** going on in their arms. Paxton is going to be a huge injury risk no matter what, simply based on his history.

[Laika]

Potential Rule 5 guys:

 

Gabriel Moreno

Otto Lopez

Kevin Smith

Josh Winckowski

Chavez Young

Ty Tice

Samad Taylor

Ryan Noda

Riley Adams

 

 

You have to protect Moreno. Ty Tice is the type of guy that doesn't get protected and someone takes a flier on him. Winckowski could maybe get grabbed so I think he's a debatable case to add to the 40-man. Otto Lopez is probably too raw for a team to use a positional player roster spot on him. Still maybe worth protecting him.

 

So, they probably need two or three 40-man spots need for these guys, I think.

 

Gabriel Moreno

Josh Winckowski

Riley Adams

Kevin Smith

Otto Lopez

Chavez Young

Ty Tice

Samad Taylor

Ryan Noda

Logan Warmoth

 

This ^ would probably be my protection priority. They can maybe leave Young and Lopez exposed and not lose them. Agree Tice gets left exposed and is selected.

 

I think they absolutely trade one or two catchers this offseason. Probably two of McGuire, Adams, Moreno.

[Jimcanuck]

I think they absolutely trade one or two catchers this offseason. Probably two of McGuire, Adams, Moreno.

 

Every team has guys like McGuire and Adams. I would think Moreno is the only one with trade value?

[max silver]

Every team has guys like McGuire and Adams. I would think Moreno is the only one with trade value?

 

Adams had a nice run of success at high A and AA in 2019, he looks like he might have some potential with the bat. The high strikeout numbers are a bit of a red flag though.