Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Orgfiller]

When Don Mattingly was 18 he struck out 6 times in 50 games. Nimmala strikes out 12 times as much. This tells us something already.

 

I totally concede that he can turn it around, but I've yet to see a list of 18 year olds who hit .200 and struck out 40% in low A as a teenager but became good big leaguers anyway.

 

SO far the list is no one has succeeded after such a start, so Nimmala will be the first after the other 1000 failed.

 

Don Mattingly played in an era where the average fastball was probably barely faster than the average breaking ball in 2024. That tells us a lot.

 

Snide aside, not every prospect has to be a 65 FV. Nimmala is clearly very raw, if he gets the warts out I'll certainly take a 50 FV prospect, something like Paul DeJong in his good years.

[Laika]

RE: Nimmala

 

He is *basically* the youngest player in the Florida State League and he has a 78 wRC+ in the first month. Not only is that not that bad, I might go so far as to say it's even... good in a couple of ways? Sounds insane because of his K rate and AVG which are of course very poor but he does have a decent .139 ISO and has flashed actual adult man raw power. While being *basically* the youngest player in the league and a shortstop with defensive upside. I say basically because a couple guys might be some weeks or months younger than him.

 

The FSL right now is probably comparable to short season class A from 2019 and the preceding years. NWL is the league, which was short season class A back then. Here are some guys who had bad or mediocre numbers in the NWL in 2019 or the few years before then. This is just an eyeball scan for below average hitters who are or were MLB players now:

 

Ezequiel Tovar, 17, 80 wRC+

Marco Lucaiono, 17, 91 wRC+

Leodys Taveras, 17, 59 wRC+

Miguel Amaya, 18, 71 wRC+

Lane Thomas, 19, 80 wRC+

Osleivis Basabe, 18, 73 wRC+

Chris Morel, 19, 4 wRC+ (93 PA)

Davis Schneider, 20, 49 wRC+ (49 PA) also had 96 wRC+ at 19 in Rookie Ball

[burlingtonbandit]

When Don Mattingly was 18 he struck out 6 times in 50 games. Nimmala strikes out 12 times as much. This tells us something already.

 

I totally concede that he can turn it around, but I've yet to see a list of 18 year olds who hit .200 and struck out 40% in low A as a teenager but became good big leaguers anyway.

 

SO far the list is no one has succeeded after such a start, so Nimmala will be the first after the other 1000 failed.

 

What about all the players who come in as a freshman at a college program and are toolsy but unpolished? Aaron Judge wasn't a big time prospect out of high school. I want to say Dylan Crews wasn't either and then by the time he was 21 he's a top pick in the draft.

 

You would think an MLB program/facility is better than college programs so why can't the Jays or a different MLB team unlock a guys potential? Its crazy to write off an 18 year old because of bad numbers in the first 2 months of a season. If a guy makes swing changes the results don't even matter that much, you just want to get game action/reps and see improvement in the long run.

[Jimcanuck]

No one is writing off Nimmala.

[The_DH]

No one is writing off Nimmala.

 

Agree totally, but it also shows why ranking him 3rd best prospect is complete ********. Hadn't even picked up a wooden bat and already 3rd best prospect? Ratings like that lose respect. Give him honourable mention or something like that, but let the kid swing a bat before rating him.

[Spanky__99]

Agree totally, but it also shows why ranking him 3rd best prospect is complete ********. Hadn't even picked up a wooden bat and already 3rd best prospect? Ratings like that lose respect. Give him honourable mention or something like that, but let the kid swing a bat before rating him.

 

C'mon man, he was a first round pick, it's not like he was cracking top 100 listings.

[mphenhef]

Agree totally, but it also shows why ranking him 3rd best prospect is complete ********. Hadn't even picked up a wooden bat and already 3rd best prospect? Ratings like that lose respect. Give him honourable mention or something like that, but let the kid swing a bat before rating him.

 

that probably said just as much about the Jays system as it did about Nimmala

[Laika]

Agree totally, but it also shows why ranking him 3rd best prospect is complete ********. Hadn't even picked up a wooden bat and already 3rd best prospect? Ratings like that lose respect. Give him honourable mention or something like that, but let the kid swing a bat before rating him.

 

Obviously you value certainty a bit more than upside but he's completely defensible as one of the best organizational prospects if you value upside

 

High risk but he's an 18 year old with a SS body already capable of hitting the baseball harder than half of MLB players...

[The_DH]

Obviously you value certainty a bit more than upside but he's completely defensible as one of the best organizational prospects if you value upside

 

High risk but he's an 18 year old with a SS body already capable of hitting the baseball harder than half of MLB players...

 

Not really, I learned from a professional baseball person once that young players get compared to people that have travelled the path to the majors before. I just think some 17-18 year old has to prove something to be ranked so high as a prospect. He's an honourable mention to me, not a 3rd ranked prospect. And yes, I think we have a lot of duds on the list. I figure we have maybe 3-4 prospect bats and maybe 1 pitcher (Ricky T if healthy). Some others who might get a cup of coffee also exist.

[Laika]

Barger hit a 432 foot homer in AAA last night

 

Not sure if you guys toggled the cutoff low enough to see but the one promising thing from his MLB sample was his swing speed. His bat speed and fast swing rate were right there with Vlad and better than Varsho's. Same swing length as Vlad too so he's not winding up like crazy or anything.

[Delgalladay]

Barger hit a 432 foot homer in AAA last night

 

Not sure if you guys toggled the cutoff low enough to see but the one promising thing from his MLB sample was his swing speed. His bat speed and fast swing rate were right there with Vlad and better than Varsho's. Same swing length as Vlad too so he's not winding up like crazy or anything.

 

Why don't they call up him or Horowitz? This offense is absolutely putrid as it is. Why not try something different?

[Masterbather]

Why don't they call up him or Horowitz? This offense is absolutely putrid as it is. Why not try something different?

 

Because our front office has no f***ing balls.

[Olerud363]

Don Mattingly played in an era where the average fastball was probably barely faster than the average breaking ball in 2024. That tells us a lot.

 

Snide aside, not every prospect has to be a 65 FV. Nimmala is clearly very raw, if he gets the warts out I'll certainly take a 50 FV prospect, something like Paul DeJong in his good years.

 

One of the hopes for this year was that Bonilla and Nimmala would become really good prospects and do what Vlad/Bo/Orelvis/Kirk did when teenagers... and come quick.

 

No doubt they have years to still become something. But the baseball gods took away two shots at some joy. The hope for a Paul Dejong in 2030 isn't joy, just a routine thing that every team has.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays - the most joyless, soulless, hopeless thing out there....

 

The amount of endorphins the Baltimore Orioles franchise provide their fans compared the the Blue Jays is like 1 million to 0. Was just in Baltimore and no one could stop talking about the pure joy their team brings the community...

 

Toronto - maybe we'll get Paul Dejong in many, many years!

[Olerud363]

Because our front office has no f***ing balls.

 

The hate for Justin Turner will be hilarious in 2 weeks. I bet he'll be hitting .230 with negative WAR

 

1. For all you kids who follow the stats cast bat speed s*** you got Barger

2. For all you kids who think Horwitz .330 .450 .480 would translate to a decent mlb hitter (despite 'no power bro') you got Horwitz.

3. For all you kids who like 40 year olds that the stats cast doesn't like anymore you got Turner.

[glory]

Why don't they call up him or Horowitz? This offense is absolutely putrid as it is. Why not try something different?

 

Because they want to build a "sustainable contender" with nothing but vetrins.

[Olerud363]

Because they want to build a "sustainable contender" with nothing but vetrins.

 

Justin Turner final numbers .230 11 52 -2 WAR

Vogelbech final numbers .190 1 homer -1 WAR (amazing for so little playing time)

Springer final numbers .210 10 homer -3 WAR

 

Stats cast new bat speed numbers for these guys - like 61 mph (same as you)

 

Barger .290 25 80 .410 on base in AAA 78 mph bat speed 100 mph arm speed (freak of nature)

Howritz .340 .450 .490 in AAA 71 mph bat speed

 

IF ANYONE SHOULD BE TAKING LESSONS TO BECOME THE NEXT MATTINGLY IT's Howritz? f*** if Mattingly wants a protegee he is the only one deserving of Mattingly's lessons.

[glory]

Leo Jimenez coming into tonight's game has a 134 wRC+ (.260/.431/.420) and .423 xwOBA in AAA. Still 22. Supposed to be a good defensive SS. Out of options after this season. Wonder if he's trade bait or someone the Jays plan to use at the big league level. If it's the latter, then they might want to get him some big league reps somehow because he'll have to be on the 26 man roster if he's still on the team in 2025.

[spats]

Lukes went 6 for 6 tonight with a hr. Bring him up tomorrow and DFA Vogelbach. No brainer.

[Olerud363]

Lukes went 6 for 6 tonight with a hr. Bring him up tomorrow and DFA Vogelbach. No brainer.

 

1. Lukes lf

2. Barger rf

3. Vlad dh/1b

4. Howritz dh/1b

5. Scheider 2b

6. Varsho cf

7. Jansen/Kirk c

8. IKF 3b

9. Jiminez ss

10. H. Jacket (mascot/good luck charm/inspiration)

 

Bo traded. Springer benched or released. Vlad stays to rebuild value, gets to bring HR Jacket back and have fun with the inexperienced guys.

 

Better than current team? More watchable than current team? Funner than Current team? Yes to all 3.

[Stangstag]

1. Lukes lf

2. Barger rf

3. Vlad dh/1b

4. Howritz dh/1b

5. Scheider 2b

6. Varsho cf

7. Jansen/Kirk c

8. IKF 3b

9. Jiminez ss

10. H. Jacket (mascot/good luck charm/inspiration)

 

Bo traded. Springer benched or released. Vlad stays to rebuild value, gets to bring HR Jacket back and have fun with the inexperienced guys.

 

Better than current team? More watchable than current team? Funner than Current team? Yes to all 3.

 

Springer released lol

[Spanky__99]

Jays in on this kid for the IFA draft, he's in the top 6...

 

Cristopher Polanco, SS, Dominican Republic

 

Team: Blue Jays

 

Polanco is one of the most advanced hitters in the class. He’s a lefthanded hitter who consistently puts together quality at-bats with a mature approach for his age. Polanco’s swing is compact, gets on plane early and he has the bat control that enables him to make contact at a high clip. It’s a low swing-and-miss rate with occasional home run pop, with the strength projection in his frame for more of his doubles to start stretching over the fence in the coming years. Polanco’s offensive track record stands out, but he’s also a solid defender at shortstop. An average runner, Polanco doesn’t have the same raw tools or explosiveness as some of the other top shortstops for this year, but he has good actions and body control, with improved footwork over the past year. His arm is a tick below-average but looks like it should jump another grade given his arm action, arm speed and strength projection.

 

[Olerud363]

Jace Bohrofen finally hits his first homer of the year.

 

At .300 .482 .438 he is in very much danger of entering the dreaded BJMB 'no power bro' club. Hopefully this homer leads to many more.

 

Otherwise he will end up hitting .350 .450 .450 in Buffalo age 25 through 28 while the Blue Jays will have to find a 38 year old DH somewhere to take his playing time.

[Olerud363]

Josh 'no power bro' Kasevich up to .328 .383 .406 and .290 .363 ..369 lifetime.

 

1. May have the D and position to survive without power.

2. Steven Kwan translated from .300 .380 .438 minors to .289 .361 .385

3. That would put Kasevich at .280 .340 .340 or so with similar translation.

 

Maybe still not enough to survive. However I guess Kasevich still has a year or so to develop a bit more power so he can put up a 2024 VGJR like .270 .370 .370 line.

[keggy]

Bo traded. Springer benched or released. Vlad stays to rebuild value, gets to bring HR Jacket back and have fun with the inexperienced guys.

 

I know you're joking but you don't want a lazy headcase anywhere near a core of young players during a hard reset. He would be the first to go.

[Olerud363]

I know you're joking but you don't want a lazy headcase anywhere near a core of young players during a hard reset. He would be the first to go.

 

Not entirely joking. Springer is playing at a level where he should be released, though realistically they give him another year to work out of it.

 

Guerrero? Not really sure he is that bad of a guy. I don't know though. Seems like the type who would have fun with young players and in a non-pressure situation.

 

Like if the goal is to develop these young guys, who cares if they have a little fun and where a homerun jacket when they are losing 9-3. Maybe relaxed for a year Vlad would rebuild some value for Trade Deadline 2025.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nimmala hasn't played in almost a week, must be nursing an injury

[Terminator]

Nimmala hasn't played in almost a week, must be nursing an injury

 

They moved him to the Development List.

[Terminator]

Why don't they call up him or Horowitz? This offense is absolutely putrid as it is. Why not try something different?

 

They should really call them both up. These aren't high pedigree, 21 year olds that we need to treat carefully and play everyday.

 

They are mildly interesting AAA guys in their mid 20s who are showing some interesting things in the minors. We should see what they've got.

 

Dump Biggio and Vogelbach and play these guys more by sitting Turner and Springer a little bit more.

[Olerud363]

Leo Jimenez coming into tonight's game has a 134 wRC+ (.260/.431/.420) and .423 xwOBA in AAA. Still 22. Supposed to be a good defensive SS. Out of options after this season. Wonder if he's trade bait or someone the Jays plan to use at the big league level. If it's the latter, then they might want to get him some big league reps somehow because he'll have to be on the 26 man roster if he's still on the team in 2025.

 

Jiminez and Howritz are in the same boat. Low power, high on base percentage guys, who play the position of our 2 franchise players who are headed for free agency.

 

Both could replace Vlad/Bo without losing any fWAR if their defense scores well. (won't replace the 2021 11 WAR version of Vlad/Bo, but I'm talking about the current 5 WAR combined version)

 

I don't really buy that they won't project in MLB because of no power. Even Russ Adams would have been an OK player if his defense worked. It didn't. Obviously you can't be useful with no power and no defense.

[Spanky__99]

Jiminez and Howritz are in the same boat. Low power, high on base percentage guys, who play the position of our 2 franchise players who are headed for free agency.

 

Both could replace Vlad/Bo without losing any fWAR if their defense scores well. (won't replace the 2021 11 WAR version of Vlad/Bo, but I'm talking about the current 5 WAR combined version)

 

I don't really buy that they won't project in MLB because of no power. Even Russ Adams would have been an OK player if his defense worked. It didn't. Obviously you can't be useful with no power and no defense.

 

Howritz is just blocked big guy, there's a reason the Birds have him playing 2nd base and LF recently. His bat should play in the MLB if he transitions well, anyone thinking he won't are being obtuse. There's always a chance.