Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[glory]

Worth noting that our A-ball team plays in the Florida State League which is a death sentence for hitters, so you have to grade them on a curve. They have the 2nd youngest avg batters age in the FCL and yet are 3rd best in run scoring. Looking at OPS alone is a bit deceptive. By wRC+, given most of these players are still younger for the level, they seem to be holding their own:

 

Victor Arias, 123 wRC+

Edward Duran, 115 wRC+

Yhoangel Aponte, 107 wRC+

Manuel Beltre, 105 wRC+

Tucker Toman, 101 wRC+

 

Like I don't think they are going to develop into can't-miss superstar-level talents, but they can still turn into useful big leaguers given how young they are. I agree though, there's a distinct lack of impact hitting prospects in this pipeline at the moment beyond maybe Orelvis. And even then, he's has a career .239 batting average in the minors which raises red flags for me in his ability to make contact at the major league levels.

 

If Orelvis can't play 2B/SS/3B at a respectable level then I'm not even sure he's an impact prospect either. It's a pretty grim system. They have only developed 1 SP in 9 years (Manoah) and the only impact position players they have developed since the Vlad/Bo call ups are Kirk for a year and a half before he fell off, and now Davis Schneider. I'm not even sure what the solution to this is because what they actually need (a complete overhaul of their player development and ideally a new front office) will take years to implement effectively, and the Jays aren't rebuilding any time soon.

[Brownie19]

If Orelvis can't play 2B/SS/3B at a respectable level then I'm not even sure he's an impact prospect either. It's a pretty grim system. They have only developed 1 SP in 9 years (Manoah) and the only impact position players they have developed since the Vlad/Bo call ups are Kirk for a year and a half before he fell off, and now Davis Schneider. I'm not even sure what the solution to this is because what they actually need (a complete overhaul of their player development and ideally a new front office) will take years to implement effectively, and the Jays aren't rebuilding any time soon.

 

Years and years of mediocrity I suspect - just like most MLB teams.

[Olerud363]

Worth noting that our A-ball team plays in the Florida State League which is a death sentence for hitters, so you have to grade them on a curve. They have the 2nd youngest avg batters age in the FCL and yet are 3rd best in run scoring. Looking at OPS alone is a bit deceptive. By wRC+, given most of these players are still younger for the level, they seem to be holding their own:

 

Victor Arias, 123 wRC+

Edward Duran, 115 wRC+

Yhoangel Aponte, 107 wRC+

Manuel Beltre, 105 wRC+

Tucker Toman, 101 wRC+

 

Like I don't think they are going to develop into can't-miss superstar-level talents, but they can still turn into useful big leaguers given how young they are. I agree though, there's a distinct lack of impact hitting prospects in this pipeline at the moment beyond maybe Orelvis. And even then, he's has a career .239 batting average in the minors which raises red flags for me in his ability to make contact at the major league levels.

 

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

 

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

 

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

 

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

[Olerud363]

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

 

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

 

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

 

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

 

Long peak guy. Good enough to get to MLB early. Good enough to stay late. Video game stats in the A ball.

 

Short peak guy. Takes a while to get to MLB not good enough to play much after 30. Holds his own in the A ball.

 

Not a guy. Hit's .200 with lots of strike outs in the A ball. May look good here and there especially if repeating a level, but gets stuck in double a.

 

There are exceptions to the rule

[Laika]

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

 

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

 

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

 

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

 

I am not kidding here

 

I wonder if a lot of the Blue Jays front office people are more concerned about the farm system than they are about the MLB team

 

It is more worrisome in a lot of ways

[Brownie19]

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

 

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

 

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

 

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

 

To be fair - you typically don't find long peak guy by playing it safe in the draft. You need to "swing for the fences" more, and obviously when you do that, you miss more often. Nimmala was a high upside draft pick at #20. I'd rather us target big upside guys than take some low upside polished college player who's going to get to the majors quick, but likely won't be an impact player.

 

I like the process/decision making, even if he ultimately flops.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Even if you look at the group of top 100 prospects they had back in 2021, literally none of them have had sustained success at the MLB level.

 

Manoah came on strong but regressed

Kirk came on strong and regressed

Pearson can't even be a consistent reliever

Martin is barely anything

SWR isn't much either but only spent a brief time as a Jays prospect

Moreno is not looking like anything special right now

Groshans flopped

 

Something is rotten

[Olerud363]

Even if you look at the group of top 100 prospects they had back in 2021, literally none of them have had sustained success at the MLB level.

 

Manoah came on strong but regressed

Kirk came on strong and regressed

Pearson can't even be a consistent reliever

Martin is barely anything

SWR isn't much either but only spent a brief time as a Jays prospect

Moreno is not looking like anything special right now

Groshans flopped

 

Something is rotten

 

Vlad and Bo both had their best season in 2021. Their ability to get nice MLB seasons out of late 20s players has been much worse last couple of years. Like they are not able to get the same types of seasons out of Varsho and Chapman that they were out of Semien and Teoscar.

 

Like the ability to have any positive suprises in the majors or minors is gone.

[Olerud363]

Vlad and Bo both had their best season in 2021. Their ability to get nice MLB seasons out of late 20s players has been much worse last couple of years. Like they are not able to get the same types of seasons out of Varsho and Chapman that they were out of Semien and Teoscar.

 

Like the ability to have any positive suprises in the majors or minors is gone.

 

I know people will say this is on the players, but if so maybe it is like the Jays aren't getting the players that can can absorb all the info needed to succeed in 2024.

 

Sort of a debate around like should they put away the ipads and go old school? Too much data analytics? Or not enough ?

 

Or maybe other teams have some sort of screening to find the players that can take in all the info and are coachable.

[AMS528]

Vlad and Bo both had their best season in 2021. Their ability to get nice MLB seasons out of late 20s players has been much worse last couple of years. Like they are not able to get the same types of seasons out of Varsho and Chapman that they were out of Semien and Teoscar.

 

Like the ability to have any positive suprises in the majors or minors is gone.

 

Positive surprises is definitely the thing here. If you're going to be successful and paper over flaws that inevitably pop up on your big league team (core guys having bad years), you need those players that seemingly come of the blue (as a result of effective player development) that teams like Tampa and Houston always seed to get.

 

As everyone has mentioned several times, Davis Schneider is the only one of those guys from either the pitching or hitting pool that has happened for.

 

You need a Boweden Francis to look good as a back end starter, an Otto Lopez to succeed. You need some low level guys who weren't top picks to have really good years so it looks like they've got a shot and you can pool them when you need to make a trade for Juan Soto etc.

[Daniel Labude]

https://www.milb.com/player/enmanuel-bonilla-806962

 

Emanuel Bonilla hitting .243 .286 .414 with a 2 to 23 bb/k in a super low league he should be dominating. This is like the guys that play at 9:00 am before the real low level A league team plays.

 

He sucks. Nimilla and Bonilla have both had horrible seasons and yes they are young, but the odds are against them now.

 

I'm sort of double posting but the other guy mentioned in his thread we have no international players with fire, like Julio-Rod or Sota except for Vlad.

 

Does anyone have any concept of what those 3 did at 18 ? Really good players reach A+ at 18 hitting .345 with awesome k/bb. Players that are destined to make the majors hold their own at these leagues.

 

You know what Bonilla and Nimalla's future is? Go to New Hampshire watch the Beltre and De'Jesus guy. Nimmilla and Bonilla will be lucky if they get that far.

 

Couldn't be more wrong with almost almost all of this post

[Daniel Labude]

If Orelvis can't play 2B/SS/3B at a respectable level then I'm not even sure he's an impact prospect either. It's a pretty grim system. They have only developed 1 SP in 9 years (Manoah) and the only impact position players they have developed since the Vlad/Bo call ups are Kirk for a year and a half before he fell off, and now Davis Schneider. I'm not even sure what the solution to this is because what they actually need (a complete overhaul of their player development and ideally a new front office) will take years to implement effectively, and the Jays aren't rebuilding any time soon.

 

Orelvis can play some respectable defense at all 3 positions. Gonna take more than 20-30 games for him to be comfortable at those positions though

[Olerud363]

Couldn't be more wrong with almost almost all of this post

 

Give us an example of guys who hit like Nimmala and Bonilla at 18 with simillar k/bb and became stars? Or even made it to the majors.

 

I am sure you can find some because nothing is black and white, but you are a statistically illiterate moron.

 

If you think that extreme performances in the first 200 at bats of a guys career mean nothing then... well nothing I can do....

 

Your history is out there for everyone to see. For 3 years you kept telling us Vlad was close. He's close. He's almost there. He's close.

 

Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could.

 

You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do.

 

'Vlad's close'!

 

Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage

 

LTBF - told you he was gonna come back, hitting .290 again. Told you he was close.

 

OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome.

 

They are hitting .200 combined with a terrible k rate. Neither can stick in low A Dunnedin (Bonilla can't even get there).

 

But LTBF has looked at their swings... stats don't matter.

[Olerud363]

Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could.

 

You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do.

 

'Vlad's close'!

 

Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage

 

OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome.

 

 

I am sure new posters are tired of seeing fights between old time posters, which there are a lot of lately, and I guess I am making the problem worse.

 

However just some context. After 2021, starting around May of 2022 LTBF claimed literally at least 100 times that Vlad was on the verge of returning to his 2021 form.

 

It just became a joke "He's close", "He's almost there", "He's close".

 

I am sure to cover his ass LTBF will claim he just meant Vlad was going to return to hitting .275 or something. Really? Does anybody think that LTFB meant Vlad was going to return to his 2022-2024 form? Which he was already at. As Vlad marched through 2022 to now, hitting OK the whole time, LTBF constantly told us Vlad was 'close'. 'Close'. CLose to what? Close to returning to being 2021 Vlad. So close.

 

He's close. He's close. Just missed that one. Real close. Bo sucks. Bo just grounded into a double play. Bo sucks. Vlad's close. Tango is wrong. Tango is wrong. Tango is here? On this board? He is wrong. Bo would have 70 errors if it wasn't for Vlad.

 

OK. Just to be precise, LTBF did not say the last one. Everything else he said, and he was wrong on.

 

Vlad was never close to returning to his 2021 form and never will. Nimalla and Bonilla have a much longer road ahead as it should be obvious they aren't storming through the minors in 3 years. That ship has sailed.

 

Reality. Sucks.

[Daniel Labude]

Give us an example of guys who hit like Nimmala and Bonilla at 18 with simillar k/bb and became stars? Or even made it to the majors.

 

I am sure you can find some because nothing is black and white, but you are a statistically illiterate moron.

 

If you think that extreme performances in the first 200 at bats of a guys career mean nothing then... well nothing I can do....

 

Your history is out there for everyone to see. For 3 years you kept telling us Vlad was close. He's close. He's almost there. He's close.

 

Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could.

 

You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do.

 

'Vlad's close'!

 

Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage

 

LTBF - told you he was gonna come back, hitting .290 again. Told you he was close.

 

OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome.

 

They are hitting .200 combined with a terrible k rate. Neither can stick in low A Dunnedin (Bonilla can't even get there).

 

But LTBF has looked at their swings... stats don't matter.

 

If you choose to be stupid thats fine, doesn't bother me

[Ray]

Orelvis with another dinger

 

[Daniel Labude]

I am sure new posters are tired of seeing fights between old time posters, which there are a lot of lately, and I guess I am making the problem worse.

 

However just some context. After 2021, starting around May of 2022 LTBF claimed literally at least 100 times that Vlad was on the verge of returning to his 2021 form.

 

It just became a joke "He's close", "He's almost there", "He's close".

 

I am sure to cover his ass LTBF will claim he just meant Vlad was going to return to hitting .275 or something. Really? Does anybody think that LTFB meant Vlad was going to return to his 2022-2024 form? Which he was already at. As Vlad marched through 2022 to now, hitting OK the whole time, LTBF constantly told us Vlad was 'close'. 'Close'. CLose to what? Close to returning to being 2021 Vlad. So close.

 

He's close. He's close. Just missed that one. Real close. Bo sucks. Bo just grounded into a double play. Bo sucks. Vlad's close. Tango is wrong. Tango is wrong. Tango is here? On this board? He is wrong. Bo would have 70 errors if it wasn't for Vlad.

 

OK. Just to be precise, LTBF did not say the last one. Everything else he said, and he was wrong on.

 

Vlad was never close to returning to his 2021 form and never will. Nimalla and Bonilla have a much longer road ahead as it should be obvious they aren't storming through the minors in 3 years. That ship has sailed.

 

Reality. Sucks.

 

I'm not sure what you are going on about. Good luck with your insanity. I'm around if you need info on reality of prospects though

[Olerud363]

I'm not sure what you are going on about. Good luck with your insanity. I'm around if you need info on reality of prospects though

 

So who are the players that struggled at 18, struggled to the point they couldn't even stick in low A and became impact talent? I can't remember a single player in Blue Jays history who did this.

 

Arguably Shawn Green and Alex Rios are two, but even they hit like .270 with good k rates at 18, they just didn't show power (yet). Derek Jeter at first glance.

 

However that is only a product of the funny way age is measured. When Jeter was 3 months older than Nimalla, in his second season, the year he turned 19, he was doing fine in low A. Jeter was 18 years 9 months, Nimalla 18 years 6 months.

 

Of course across the entire history of baseball you can find a few players who turned it around. I mean it's only been 2 months, Nimalla could finish strong, who knows.

 

Just that if you look at history, even the history of this franchise, D.J. Davis, Kevin Ahrens, Miguel Negron, the like 15-20 overall draft picks, and compare them to Travis Snider, Brett Lawrie, Bo Bichette, you could already see the differences after 2 months in A-ball.

 

I remember when Jays traded Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose there was huge debate on the old board. And the Gose haters were right because they intuitively knew just glancing at his stats, that even though he was just a teenager, the shape of his numbers showed that he couldn't hit and wouldn't.

[Daniel Labude]

So who are the players that struggled at 18, struggled to the point they couldn't even stick in low A and became impact talent? I can't remember a single player in Blue Jays history who did this.

 

Arguably Shawn Green and Alex Rios are two, but even they hit like .270 with good k rates at 18, they just didn't show power (yet). Derek Jeter at first glance.

 

However that is only a product of the funny way age is measured. When Jeter was 3 months older than Nimalla, in his second season, the year he turned 19, he was doing fine in low A. Jeter was 18 years 9 months, Nimalla 18 years 6 months.

 

Of course across the entire history of baseball you can find a few players who turned it around. I mean it's only been 2 months, Nimalla could finish strong, who knows.

 

Just that if you look at history, even the history of this franchise, D.J. Davis, Kevin Ahrens, Miguel Negron, the like 15-20 overall draft picks, and compare them to Travis Snider, Brett Lawrie, Bo Bichette, you could already see the differences after 2 months in A-ball.

 

I remember when Jays traded Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose there was huge debate on the old board. And the Gose haters were right because they intuitively knew just glancing at his stats, that even though he was just a teenager, the shape of his numbers showed that he couldn't hit and wouldn't.

 

Davis Schneider spent parts of 4 seasons at rookie and A ball at age 18, 19, 20, and 21

 

Danny Jansen was at rookie and A for 4 years at age 18, 19, 20, and 21. OPS of 500 and 600

 

George Springer was in A-, A+, and AA at 21 and 22

 

Justin Turner was in rookie ball at 21

 

18 at rookie and A ball is exceptional by itself. Bonilla has hit very well at DSL and rookie. Nimmala hasn't been good, but shown potential. Not sure why you are making up a s*** case to cry about

[Brownie19]

FFS man - now Olerud is going to write a 783 page novel on why you're wrong.

[max silver]

FFS man - now Olerud is going to write a 783 page novel on why you're wrong.

 

Ignore list is your friend.

[Daniel Labude]

FFS man - now Olerud is going to write a 783 page novel on why you're wrong.

 

Lmao

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nice to see Orelvis heating up again, he'd gone cold for a bit

[Brownie19]

Ignore list is your friend.

 

Oh it sure is. But I like Olerud's posts for the most part. But LTBF is feeding the beast!

[AMS528]

How Leo Jimenez's defense at SS? He's having a decent enough season with the bat, if we move on from Bo and aren't replacing him with an external option immediately we're either going to be playing IKF there and Jimenez is the only other option as far as I know.

[Spanky__99]

How Leo Jimenez's defense at SS? He's having a decent enough season with the bat, if we move on from Bo and aren't replacing him with an external option immediately we're either going to be playing IKF there and Jimenez is the only other option as far as I know.

 

6. Leo Jimenez

SS

 

Ht: 5'10" | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk: 45/High

 

Track Record: Jimenez was considered one of the top players to come out of Panama in the last decade when he signed for $825,000 in 2017. He endured two injury-shortened seasons in 2021 and 2022, missing time with shoulder and hand injuries. Jimenez began 2023 with Double-A New Hampshire, making 76 starts for the Fisher Cats primarily at shortstop and hitting .287/.372/.436 with a 15.9% strikeout rate. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Buffalo in late August.

 

Scouting Report: Jimenez does not wow with loud tools or flashy play, but he’s an instinctual, disciplined ballplayer. He employs a simple swing with a direct path and average bat speed. He shows an ability to adjust his hands and make a high rate of contact. Jimenez rarely swings and misses in the strike zone and shows advanced swing decisions. He’s patient but not passive, regularly attacking strikes. Jimenez shows sneaky power, but it’s mostly in the form of line drives. He began to show the ability to pull the ball in the air without forcing it, hinting at untapped power. His underlying exit velocity data is above-average for his age, with a 88.5 mph average and a 90th percentile EV of 104.2. He’s a fringe-average runner capable of clocking an average run time on a hustle play down the line. He’s not a basestealing threat but has a quick first step and good infield instincts. He shows an average arm at shortstop, but his quick release and good internal clock allow him to make a majority of plays. Jimenez may end up at second base due to the limitations of his arm.

 

The Future: Jimenez is a solid all-around player who will likely break-in as a utilityman but should develop into a second-division regular over time.

 

Scouting Grades Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 45 | Field: 55 | Arm: 50

[glory]

How Leo Jimenez's defense at SS? He's having a decent enough season with the bat, if we move on from Bo and aren't replacing him with an external option immediately we're either going to be playing IKF there and Jimenez is the only other option as far as I know.

 

Jimenez after this season will also be Ross Atkins’ worst nightmare: a 40 man roster player with no options. Either going to trade him or he’ll be on the 26 man next season. Would be nice if he could develop into a starting caliber SS.

[Brownie19]

Jimenez after this season will also be Ross Atkins’ worst nightmare: a 40 man roster player with no options. Either going to trade him or he’ll be on the 26 man next season. Would be nice if he could develop into a starting caliber SS.

 

We could get a look at him this year if they decide the Clement magic is gone - or we move on from Biggio - or there's an injury. He's an interesting piece.

[Terminator]

We could get a look at him this year if they decide the Clement magic is gone - or we move on from Biggio - or there's an injury. He's an interesting piece.

 

Yeah surely a guy who can play a good SS for league minimum can stick around as the 26th man.

[Olerud363]

FFS man - now Olerud is going to write a 783 page novel on why you're wrong.

 

Unfair. None of my posts are that long it is only an illusion created by the phone. I don't use phones and I am sure I am in the minority but a few sentences strung together look horrible on the phone.

 

I use the computer. So many f***ing morons these days have no idea how to use a computer, and their brains are fried looking at the 3 inch screen all day, which is why reading comprehension and stats are gone.