Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Masterbather said:

It's a problem that it's even a struggle for him to get the 30 home runs in the first place. He had a hot couple of months of 8 home runs in order to get there 2 years ago, he hasn't touched that since, until suddenly he finds eight home runs in 18 games against the toughest pitching in the postseason. WTF?!

I get that he's more of a line drive hitter, but I'm sorry with his raw power 30 home runs should not be a struggle. He should be a 40 to 60 home run threat. 

Why does he swing to contact with less than two strikes? Don't they always talk about getting your A-swing off? That ain't it. 

How does he miss barreling so many meatballs that should be launched into the sun? Why are these deep power swoons so consistent with him?

It's maddening.

 

it keeps me up at night 

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, james jones said:

But you cannot keep putting him for 9th and hoping the luck will regress to the mean soon.

I think you can. It's ballsy, but there's nothing wrong with playing the odds.  That said, the Jays have taken him out of the highest leverage role.  He's only pitched the 9th in the past few weeks on days when Varland faces the meat of the order in the 8th and he faces the bottom half in the 9th.  That's the right approach.

[Masterbather]

1 minute ago, Brownie19 said:

Location+ suggests he's controlling pitches better than he ever has.  He's at 103 on the year v. his career average of 92.

It's certainly very odd and disheartening.  Baseball can certainly be a confusing an cruel game.  At this point, all we can do is hope things start to even out.  If they do, Hoffman will probably be one of the best RPers in baseball over the next 4-5 months.  We could certainly use that.

Yeah I know his command has been outstanding, except there are times where it starts to get away from him and all of a sudden he can't find his command. That's the point. He just inexplicably comes apart at the seams. 

I do think overuse could be an issue, hopefully we get healthier and we don't have to use these guys at this rate for the rest of the season.

[Terminator]

But even if he's tubing them down the middle, tipping pitches, is a mental midget, or whatever else could possibly be wrong with him....teams aren't making hard contact off of him at all.

87.7 EV against him is the best of his career. 

[Masterbather]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

But even if he's tubing them down the middle or tipping pitches is a mental midget, or whatever else could possibly be wrong with him....teams aren't making hard contact off of him at all.

87.7 EV against him is the best of his career. 

In many ways he's having one of his best maybe even his best season. He's just had three or four games this year where an inning just becomes an avalanche on him. 

I'm sure luck is playing a major role in how extreme his results have been. But once a couple of guys get on, he's at risk of the inning running away from him.

I'm not and I haven't been acting as extremely as some others have been with him this year, I don't think they should give up on the guy and I still trust him, but I do think it's worth having an insurance policy behind him if Varland is going to pitch before him. Rogers or at least Fisher. 

[Laika]

That hanging slider from Juff Huffman is just the most hittable pitch in baseball history 

Your 10 year old son could cream it for a double

Your grandma could get a bunt single on it 

[Brownie19]

23 minutes ago, Terminator said:

A .516 BABIP is insane. Position players pitching don't even get close to this. 

Heineman's BABIP is .400 in 3 innings this year...

[Brownie19]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

That hanging slider from Juff Huffman is just the most hittable pitch in baseball history 

Your 10 year old son could cream it for a double

Your grandma could get a bunt single on it 

Grandma could also steal a base off Hoffman - that isn't helping things at all.  He needs to hold runners better.

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Location+ suggests he's controlling pitches better than he ever has.  He's at 103 on the year v. his career average of 92.

It's certainly very odd and disheartening.  Baseball can certainly be a confusing an cruel game.  At this point, all we can do is hope things start to even out.  If they do, Hoffman will probably be one of the best RPers in baseball over the next 4-5 months.  We could certainly use that.

Hoffman has been almost comically unlucky with results on batted balls but his last few games have featured horrible stuff and command. Hopefully this is a result of fatigue and not underlying injury of some sort. 

        Stuff+/Location+

5-30 95/62

5-28 94/74

[Olerud363.354]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

I'm sure this was discussed at length in the GDT this weekend but I was looking under the hood on what is wrong with Jeff Hoffman and I cannot figure anything out other than he is experiencing perhaps the worst luck in MLB history.

I figured maybe he has a tell and they hammerred him 9th inning Saturday... not really the exit Vs of the three hits were I think 85, 75 and 95.  All at good launch angle though. 

[Olerud363.354]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

it keeps me up at night 

I wonder how Vlad would do being a #2 to a Judge or Soto, or Ohtani.  Watching them hit 25 degree 110 milers 3 times a week. he would want to get in on the fun.

Should be a 'for the good of the game...' rule in baseball, where commissioner can transfer a player to a different team, if the team is not getting the most out of his talents.   Vlad could be transferred to Yankees or Dodgers.  Hoffman probably also needs a transfer.  

[Stangstag]

4 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I wonder how Vlad would do being a #2 to a Judge or Soto, or Ohtani.  Watching them hit 25 degree 110 milers 3 times a week. he would want to get in on the fun.

Should be a 'for the good of the game...' rule in baseball, where commissioner can transfer a player to a different team, if the team is not getting the most out of his talents.   Vlad could be transferred to Yankees or Dodgers.  Hoffman probably also needs a transfer.  

How about the Mets transfer us Soto instead 

[jaysblue]

Steve Phillips was on OverDrive and floated the idea that the Jays might DFA Hoffman, which I thought was wild. I really don’t see it coming down to that. Hoffman was starting to right the ship before that implosion on Saturday, and even if the Jays did move on, some team would definitely roll the dice on him.

I like Hoffman, and I still think that if he figures things out and is used properly, he could be a real weapon out of the pen. You can’t ignore those strikeout rates. To me, it feels like a combination of bad luck and something psychological. He just doesn’t look comfortable in the ninth-inning role and honestly, he hasn’t really looked comfortable there dating back to last season. I’d probably feel more confident with Hoffman pitching in a one-run game in the seventh than protecting a four-run lead in the ninth, lol.

He did tease us a bit with those two saves on May 21 and 23 when Varland was unavailable. But like Masterbather said, they probably need to employ a different strategy for the time being when it comes to the ninth - maybe using another arm like Fisher, who picked up the save the other day, whenever Varland has already been used or isn’t available.

The problem with Hoffman is that when he implodes, he really implodes, and it gets ugly fast. It’s not usually just one or two earned runs - it’s more like four or five earned runs, two or three walks, and maybe a hit-by-pitch thrown in for good measure, haha.

 

[Brownie19]

Steve Phillips is a moron.  The fact someone pays him to talk and write about baseball is embarrassing.

[Olerud363.354]

11 hours ago, Stangstag said:

How about the Mets transfer us Soto instead 

The Mets have kept Soto operational.  The idea of the transfer program is to reward teams that are giving their players good coaching/sign stealing/supplements whatever it is, and giving those teams under-performing players which they could help.

It would be a very rare program only for very special cases like Vlad.  A generational talent that should be on a team that can keep him operating at his inherent skill level.  

 

[Masterbather]

The fact that anyone is seriously discussing DFAing Hoffman is insane. 

He's had many fantastic outings and a few implosions. He's still one of the best weapons out of the pen not just on our team but in all of baseball.

 

[Laika]

I think I figured out Jeff Hoffman, a bit

This does NOT explain his 6.31 ERA vs his 2.61 FIP and 3.15 xERA but it probably explains some of his inconsistencies and a reasonably elevated ERA

The guy has more or less lost his slider and his splitter at this point. They vary between horrible and average. Look at the game logs of his Stuff+

This guy needs to go back to being a normal, establish the fastball dude. Throw the heater 50% of the time or more. It is the only consistently plus pitch. This is not rocket science, Jeff. I don't know what  happened but two years ago your Slider was good and now it's cooked. 

[Bob_Gratton]

19 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I wonder how Vlad would do being a #2 to a Judge or Soto, or Ohtani.  Watching them hit 25 degree 110 milers 3 times a week. he would want to get in on the fun.

Should be a 'for the good of the game...' rule in baseball, where commissioner can transfer a player to a different team, if the team is not getting the most out of his talents.   Vlad could be transferred to Yankees or Dodgers.  Hoffman probably also needs a transfer.  

He will be better, coz will get better pitches, if have a very good hitter that follow him in batting order. When you have guys like Okamoto, Barger, Sanchez or Varsho, it's no stressful, so can quietly send Vlad fishing.

[Bob_Gratton]

On 5/24/2026 at 12:26 PM, JaysFan99 said:

What would we have to give up to get Skubal? I have a feeling the cost wouldn’t be worth it. 

No need to lost time trying get Skubal, he won't be interested to sign with the Jays, better try get Logan Weeb or Freddie Peralta instead. Then add a very good hitter with power, and a reliever for the 8 inning that can save game when Varland no available. 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

I think I figured out Jeff Hoffman, a bit

This does NOT explain his 6.31 ERA vs his 2.61 FIP and 3.15 xERA but it probably explains some of his inconsistencies and a reasonably elevated ERA

The guy has more or less lost his slider and his splitter at this point. They vary between horrible and average. Look at the game logs of his Stuff+

This guy needs to go back to being a normal, establish the fastball dude. Throw the heater 50% of the time or more. It is the only consistently plus pitch. This is not rocket science, Jeff. I don't know what  happened but two years ago your Slider was good and now it's cooked. 

Isn’t the obvious answer that he can’t locate his fastball? He has no confidence in it. Can’t locate anything really. Maybe the mechanics are off. 

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

Isn’t the obvious answer that he can’t locate his fastball? He has no confidence in it. Can’t locate anything really. Maybe the mechanics are off. 

It is probably part of it

His slider becomes a crutch pitch if he thinks he has a better chance of landing it for a strike than the other stuff 

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

I think I figured out Jeff Hoffman, a bit

This does NOT explain his 6.31 ERA vs his 2.61 FIP and 3.15 xERA but it probably explains some of his inconsistencies and a reasonably elevated ERA

The guy has more or less lost his slider and his splitter at this point. They vary between horrible and average. Look at the game logs of his Stuff+

This guy needs to go back to being a normal, establish the fastball dude. Throw the heater 50% of the time or more. It is the only consistently plus pitch. This is not rocket science, Jeff. I don't know what  happened but two years ago your Slider was good and now it's cooked. 

With Hoffman I don't think it's as simple as throwing his 4 seam fastball more frequently. In the outings where he struggles a good deal of that is due to complete inability to command his fastball as he tends to fall behind hitters and inevitably ends up grooving pitches down the middle of the plate. If you were to examine the log using Location+ I suspect you would see the disaster outings corresponding to the days where he has little to no command of his arsenal with the 4 seam fastball being particularly poor.

Date	Team	Opp	GS	Loc+ FA	Loc+ SI	Loc+ FC	Loc+ FS	Loc+ SL	Loc+ CU	Loc+ CH	Loc+ KC	Loc+ FO	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
Total	- - -	- - -	0	104	80		103	106					106	103	110
Date	Team	Opp	GS	Loc+ FA	Loc+ SI	Loc+ FC	Loc+ FS	Loc+ SL	Loc+ CU	Loc+ CH	Loc+ KC	Loc+ FO	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
2026-05-30	TOR	@BAL	0	71	-528		129	77					95	61	60
2026-05-28	TOR	@BAL	0	68			62	79					94	74	79
2026-05-27	TOR	MIA	0	74			76	122					114	106	115
2026-05-23	TOR	PIT	0	51			149	98					111	110	120
2026-05-21	TOR	@NYY	0				38	113					107	100	107
2026-05-20	TOR	@NYY	0	129			73	105					101	100	99
2026-05-18	TOR	@NYY	0	117			103	135					97	127	132
2026-05-15	TOR	@DET	0	141			59	111					116	116	124
2026-05-13	TOR	TBR	0	77	-109		139	129					109	91	102
2026-05-12	TOR	TBR	0	128			237	75					106	116	128
2026-05-08	TOR	LAA	0	97			168	93					114	101	114
2026-05-05	TOR	@TBR	0	97			126	163					136	109	145
2026-05-03	TOR	@MIN	0	146	106		96	148					100	136	140
2026-05-01	TOR	@MIN	0	127	59		102	150					106	115	122
2026-04-28	TOR	BOS	0	147	131		113	110					105	128	129
2026-04-26	TOR	CLE	0	83			111	64					114	80	93
2026-04-21	TOR	@LAA	0	207	69		164	71					106	103	104
2026-04-20	TOR	@LAA	0	102	164		107	62					106	103	110
2026-04-18	TOR	@ARI	0	52	176		84	128					90	85	82
2026-04-14	TOR	@MIL	0	121	190		60	132					89	112	112
Date	Team	Opp	GS	Loc+ FA	Loc+ SI	Loc+ FC	Loc+ FS	Loc+ SL	Loc+ CU	Loc+ CH	Loc+ KC	Loc+ FO	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
2026-04-12	TOR	MIN	0	132			150	197					115	153	157
2026-04-08	TOR	LAD	0	81	127		137	101					99	102	109
2026-04-07	TOR	LAD	0	82	142		131						99	114	118
2026-04-03	TOR	@CHW	0				76	135					93	97	103
2026-04-01	TOR	COL	0	52	161		90	122					108	106	107
2026-03-31	TOR	COL	0	122	135		109	153					120	126	135
2026-03-29	TOR	ATH	0	116	101		100	89					102	103	103
2026-03-27	TOR	ATH	0	108			82	70					125	69	85

[Bob_Gratton]

45 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Isn’t the obvious answer that he can’t locate his fastball? He has no confidence in it. Can’t locate anything really. Maybe the mechanics are off. 

Maybe Hoffman just need nerds confidance😉

[jaysblue]

Hoffman needs Christopher Lloyd and his crew coming down to games when he pitches: