Trey Yesavage Is the Lou Reed of the Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays selected Trey Yesavage with the 20th pick in the 2024 MLB Amateur Draft. It is unusual for a player to advance through four MiLB levels in one season, let alone make his MLB debut that same year. But Yesavage did just that. He made his professional debut in 2025 with Dunedin and continued his journey through Vancouver, New Hampshire, and Buffalo. Overall, his MiLB numbers included a 3.12 ERA and a 1.90 xERA (at High-A and Triple-A). Then, Yesavage made his MLB debut on September 15. In three regular season games, he posted a 3.21 ERA, 4.09 xERA and a 2.35 FIP. In five postseason starts, he recorded a 3.58 ERA and a 3.61 FIP. Please note that unless otherwise stated, references to 2025 include the regular season and postseason. I included the postseason to bump up Yesavage’s innings from 14 to 42.

Thus far in 2026, Yesavage has performed well overall. Among starters with at least 40 innings, his 3.72 ERA ranks in the 62nd percentile. Even better, his 3.31 xERA ranks in the 77th percentile among all pitchers, and his 5.5% barrel rate, a measure of soft contact, ranks in the 81st percentile. Another example of the soft contact that Yesavage has induced this season is his .296 xwOBAcon, which is xwOBA on batted balls. Among the 239 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Yesavage’s xwOBAcon ranks as the seventh-lowest, though not quite as good as Tyler Rogers’ second-best ranking (.270).

On the negative side of the ledger, Yesavage’s 22.2 K% and 12.5 BB% rank at the 47th and 12th percentiles, respectively. Last season, Yesavage posted a 32.2 K%, well above the 22.3% MLB average. I will address the K% decline later in the article. Concerning 2026 BB%, Yesavage has indeed taken a walk on the wild side. However, in his 2025 outings, Yesavage posted a 10.5 BB%, higher than the 2025 MLB average of 8.4%. Yes, Yesavage’s walk rate has risen in 2026, but he also had an elevated walk rate in 2025. The good news is that, as John Schneider and Yesavage opined, the lack of control is primarily due to posture. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson has the details. If Yesavage can correct his pitch-mechanics issues, his walk rate should decline, which could lead to better overall numbers.

Concerning FIP, his 4.11 ranks in the 48th percentile among starters with at least 40 innings. Yesavage’s FIP has suffered because of the low rankings of his K% and BB%, but is aided by his 81st percentile 0.84 HR/9.

An issue of interest is Yesavage’s pitch mix and how opposing batters have fared against it. Behold the first table!

The key observations are as follows:

• Yesavage has reduced his slider usage by almost eight percentage points, offset mainly by increasing the rate of four-seam fastballs.
• Consider xwOBA, which eliminates the impact of defence on the results and, accordingly, is a better measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness than wOBA. All his 2026 offerings generate xwOBA numbers better than the MLB average (all pitches).
• Furthermore, compared to 2025, the 2026 xwOBA results of the four-seam fastball and slider are better. Although the 2026 splitter is not as effective as last season, it remains Yesavage’s best pitch.
• It is noteworthy that the average velocities and spin rates of Yesavage’s three pitches are not materially different this season compared to last.

Two other issues to consider are Yesavage’s ability to find the strike zone and batter whiff rates. The table below provides more details.

Concerning throwing in-zone pitches, the notable change is the splitter. In 2025, Yesavage’s in-zone rate was 43%, much higher than 2026’s 30%. In terms of whiffs, this season, the rate on his splitter is 40%. That rate is five percentage points higher than MLB's 35% average for splitters but noticeably lower than his 58% in 2025. Given the splitter’s reduced in-zone rate this season, it appears that batters are more disciplined and, therefore, chasing less (30% chase rate in 2026, less than 2025’s 39%) and swinging at more in-zone splitters (60% swing rate in 2025 and 71% in 2026). Regarding whiff rate, the significant change is the in-zone whiff rate drop this season compared to last year (50% to 18%). However, there is a bright side to the splitter story. Despite higher in-zone and out-of-zone contact rates in 2026, the corresponding xISO scores are better or largely the same this season. On in-zone batted balls, the 2026 .144 xISO is lower than 2025’s .218 (the MLB in-zone splitter average xISO is .165). Concerning out-of-zone splitters, the 2026 xISO number is like last season (.013 versus .009). Therefore, compared to 2025, the batters in 2026 are chasing Yesavage’s splitter at a lower rate and making more contact, but it is pitcher-friendly contact (lower exit velocity and launch angle). 

Regarding the reduced K%, the causes are as follows:

• In 2025, 59.6% of all his plate appearances reached two strikes, which is higher than 2026’s 53.1%.
• Last season, the K% on his splitter was 56.1%, considerably higher than 2026’s 30.5%. Consistent with the noted higher contact rates on the splitter, the in-zone whiff rate with two strikes is 12.1% this season, which lags the 46.2% number in 2025. With two strikes, his out-of-zone whiff rate was 64.3%, higher than this season’s 48.7%.
• The increased 2026 K% on four-seam fastballs (17.1% versus 2025’s 12.7%) is partially offset by the lower K% on sliders in 2026 (23.9% versus 27.6%). 

In summary, the primary reason for Yesavage’s K% decline in 2026 is the splitter. With two strikes, batters are making contact at a higher rate this season than they did in 2025.

A final matter to address is Yesavage’s consistency. Many people on social media have opined that Yesavage has been inconsistent this season, but that observation appears to be a case of recency bias. Consider Game Score. In 10 of his 14 starts, Yesavage has posted above-average Game Scores. Yes, his last outing was bad per the Game Score rule-of-thumb chart: a 22 Game Score in less than two innings, with seven walks and four earned runs. However, in his four previous starts, one was above average (57) and three were good (60 or higher). By comparison, Dylan Cease and Cristopher Sánchez, the two starters in the 2026 MLB All-Star Game, have posted below-average Game Scores at rates like Yesavage’s 28.6% rate (4/14). Notably, Cease’s below-average Game Score rate is 29.4% (5/17) and Sánchez’s is 25.0% (5/20). Obviously, by many metrics, both Cease and Sánchez have posted better 2026 numbers than Yesavage, including overall Game Scores of 63 and 61, respectively. However, contrary to the sentiment of many, Yesavage has been relatively consistent in 2026.

The Last Word

Yesavage burst onto the MLB scene last September. The combination of his elevated strikeout and swing-and-miss rates, together with his postseason success, made him an important member of Toronto’s starting rotation and a fan favourite. His performance this season has been good and more consistent than some people believe. Yesavage has generated an xERA that ranks in the 77th percentile among all pitchers. However, his strikeout and whiff rates have declined from 2025’s lofty heights, primarily due to batters in 2026 chasing the splitter less and making contact at a higher rate.

Of note is his higher-than-average walk rate this season and last. It is reasonable for some MLB observers to wonder if Yesavage is the real-life Ricky Vaughn. Perhaps, under the direction of pitching coach Pete Walker and the boys in the lab, a change in posture can resolve Yesavage’s lack of control just as glasses did for Vaughn!