Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[glory]

Hoffman since May of 2025:

-1.0 WAR
62.0 IP
5.66 ERA/5.58 FIP
16 HR allowed
4.6 BB/9

A world where Hoffman never fails his Baltimore physical sounds like the most peaceful existence.

[jaysblue]

6 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

 

You need a new phone. 

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Hoffman since May of 2025:

-1.0 WAR
62.0 IP
5.66 ERA/5.58 FIP
16 HR allowed
4.6 BB/9

A world where Hoffman never fails his Baltimore physical sounds like the most peaceful existence.

This hasn’t just been a rough two-week or one-month stretch. It’s been going on since May of last season.

I really think the issue is the closer’s role itself. The Jays need to pull Hoffman out of high-leverage situations for now, let him reset and rebuild some confidence, and then ease him back into a 7th- or 8th-inning role. And if a guy like Varland or Rogers takes hold of the closer’s job, then that’s the way it should be. Hoffman can still be a very valuable reliever and late-inning weapon for this team, but first they need to get him back on track.

[Spanky__99]

57 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

This hasn’t just been a rough two-week or one-month stretch. It’s been going on since May of last season.

I really think the issue is the closer’s role itself. The Jays need to pull Hoffman out of high-leverage situations for now, let him reset and rebuild some confidence, and then ease him back into a 7th- or 8th-inning role. And if a guy like Varland or Rogers takes hold of the closer’s job, then that’s the way it should be. Hoffman can still be a very valuable reliever and late-inning weapon for this team, but first they need to get him back on track.

You've posted this like 15 times this week, man... we get it, you think he's a mental midget and could excel as a setup man, okay... stop now. F*ck the regurgitation, please and thanks.

[Brownie19]

On 4/19/2026 at 12:28 AM, jaysblue said:

It's just bad luck and randomness. 

You keep filtering this in as a pot shot at others.

Do explain who and what's wrong with this team all might baseball Yoda.  I'd love to learn from one of the truly brilliant baseball minds of our era.

Is Popkins the issue?  I heard for years that Martinez was the issue when we couldn't hit, so I'd assume that means it's now his fault.

Is it Atkins again?

 

[Laika]

Jeff Hoffman first 4 appearances in 2026:

116 Stuff+ 

Jeff Hoffman since then:

95 Stuff+ 

 

It may have been somewhat obvious if you were watching his velocity and other stuff characteristics, but something is going on with him physically. We was sitting 97.7 and now he is down to 96.2. His slider is down 2 mph in a month. His splitter is actually up a bit, changing his FA-Split separation from 8 mph to 6 mph. 

This is the same trend we saw all through 2025. 

I think he's broken. The O's physical was right. 

He seems like a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher because he probably is one, depending on how much he hurts on any given day.

His 2025, taken as a whole with no context, looks like a decent RP (3.73 xFIP is rank 68 out of 191 RP with 40+ IP) who got very unlucky on homers (20% HR/FB is extreme). But he is starting off 2026 with the same stuff going on; I mean he has a 1.65 xFIP right now in 2026 thanks to all the early season strikeouts. 

It's all still small sample size stuff we would presume to be bad luck, most of the time. 77.1 innings as a Toronto Blue Jay. The folly of a relief pitcher. Pitcher HR/FB rates don't stabilize in that period of time. 

You can throw out so many of the numbers people look at. I don't care about the ERA, or the blown saves. The BABIP is ridiculous. The LOB% last year was lucky. The HR/FB for his last 77 innings is not his true talent. None of this matters. So much of it is noise.

BUT you can't ignore the velo trend and the declining Stuff+. His Stuff is gone from plus with Philadelphia to something that is way closer to average. Nobody should expect anything more than an average relief pitcher, going forward. That means middle relief... 

PitchingBot has his stuff as 193rd out of 250 so far
Stuff+ says 120th out of 250 in 2026

There is a decent chance he is worse than Tommy Nance. He might not be a top 5 RP in the Jays current bullpen. 

[BTS]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

You keep filtering this in as a pot shot at others.

Do explain who and what's wrong with this team all might baseball Yoda.  I'd love to learn from one of the truly brilliant baseball minds of our era.

Is Popkins the issue?  I heard for years that Martinez was the issue when we couldn't hit, so I'd assume that means it's now his fault.

Is it Atkins again?

 

Nah man, only a homer would think that having Kirk, Santander, Bieber, Yesavage, Garcia, Springer, Barger, Berrios, Ponce and Varsho on the IL at the same time is making it difficult to win games. 

[Orgfiller]

Ernie Clement quietly has a 102 wRC+ on the back of a Luis Arraez like performance: .302 batting average, .105 ISO, 1.1 % BB rate, 6.9% K rate. Yes, the xwOBA says he's getting a bit lucky, but he's been outperforming it for a few years now so this isn't fully out of the norm for him. He has zero barrels on the season, but his squared up rate is in the 97th percentile.

The defensive metrics have been mediocre thus far, but I'm willing to fully dismiss that as early season noise in the metrics. Some actual metrics of note though: his sprint speed is down about 1.5 ft/s, and his arm strength is down about 7 mph. I'm pretty sure this is just a factor of him mostly playing 2B and not requiring as many full strength throws as he would from 3B, but he hasn't had enough tosses from the latter this season to compare the difference.

[RA Whiffleball]

I was always worried about how Hoffman would recover mentally from Game 7. I look back at Mitch Williams, and he was never the same pitcher after 1993. 

The physical issues have been well documented by other posters, but every time he has a bad outing, the fanbase will go into meltdown, and John Schneider will face uncomfortable questions from the media. So far he has doubled down, like he always does, but this looks like another Brendan Little scenario.

I was hoping the club would have brought in at least one elite late-inning reliever in free agency, especially since they weren't going to re-sign Dominguez and Bichette, and they lost out on Tucker.

To me, we have too many relievers who don't throw hard, walk too many, and are vulnerable to the HR. Lack of HR prevention in our BP was the difference in the WS. 

 

 

 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Jeff Hoffman first 4 appearances in 2026:

116 Stuff+ 

Jeff Hoffman since then:

95 Stuff+ 

 

It may have been somewhat obvious if you were watching his velocity and other stuff characteristics, but something is going on with him physically. We was sitting 97.7 and now he is down to 96.2. His slider is down 2 mph in a month. His splitter is actually up a bit, changing his FA-Split separation from 8 mph to 6 mph. 

This is the same trend we saw all through 2025. 

I think he's broken. The O's physical was right. 

He seems like a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher because he probably is one, depending on how much he hurts on any given day.

His 2025, taken as a whole with no context, looks like a decent RP (3.73 xFIP is rank 68 out of 191 RP with 40+ IP) who got very unlucky on homers (20% HR/FB is extreme). But he is starting off 2026 with the same stuff going on; I mean he has a 1.65 xFIP right now in 2026 thanks to all the early season strikeouts. 

It's all still small sample size stuff we would presume to be bad luck, most of the time. 77.1 innings as a Toronto Blue Jay. The folly of a relief pitcher. Pitcher HR/FB rates don't stabilize in that period of time. 

You can throw out so many of the numbers people look at. I don't care about the ERA, or the blown saves. The BABIP is ridiculous. The LOB% last year was lucky. The HR/FB for his last 77 innings is not his true talent. None of this matters. So much of it is noise.

BUT you can't ignore the velo trend and the declining Stuff+. His Stuff is gone from plus with Philadelphia to something that is way closer to average. Nobody should expect anything more than an average relief pitcher, going forward. That means middle relief... 

PitchingBot has his stuff as 193rd out of 250 so far
Stuff+ says 120th out of 250 in 2026

There is a decent chance he is worse than Tommy Nance. He might not be a top 5 RP in the Jays current bullpen. 

See this is the type of s*** I wanna see/read

Not “HOFFMAN SUCKS GET HIM OFF THE TEAM” 50 times a day

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, BTS said:

Nah man, only a homer would think that having Kirk, Santander, Bieber, Yesavage, Garcia, Springer, Barger, Berrios, Ponce and Varsho on the IL at the same time is making it difficult to win games. 

Just look at the Braves, they are managing just fine!!

(Please ignore last year when the pitching injuries completely derailed their season)

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, RA Whiffleball said:

I was always worried about how Hoffman would recover mentally from Game 7. I look back at Mitch Williams, and he was never the same pitcher after 1993. 

The physical issues have been well documented by other posters, but every time he has a bad outing, the fanbase will go into meltdown, and John Schneider will face uncomfortable questions from the media. So far he has doubled down, like he always does, but this looks like another Brendan Little scenario.

I was hoping the club would have brought in at least one elite late-inning reliever in free agency, especially since they weren't going to re-sign Dominguez and Bichette, and they lost out on Tucker.

To me, we have too many relievers who don't throw hard, walk too many, and are vulnerable to the HR. Lack of HR prevention in our BP was the difference in the WS. 

 

 

 

HR rate was an issue for the entire staff last season.

Also, the manager is not gonna come out and blast his players to the media (unless you’re Vitello who can’t keep his mouth shut)

Hoffman has obviously been moved down the pecking order with him pitching the 8th the other day, whether the manager says so or not.

And finally, its not usually worth investing highly into relief pitchers on big contracts as they have an extremely high chance of turning to s*** immediately 

[Terminator]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

And finally, its not usually worth investing highly into relief pitchers on big contracts as they have an extremely high chance of turning to s*** immediately 

Exhibit A: Edwin Diaz

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, RA Whiffleball said:

I was always worried about how Hoffman would recover mentally from Game 7. I look back at Mitch Williams, and he was never the same pitcher after 1993. 

The physical issues have been well documented by other posters, but every time he has a bad outing, the fanbase will go into meltdown, and John Schneider will face uncomfortable questions from the media. So far he has doubled down, like he always does, but this looks like another Brendan Little scenario.

I was hoping the club would have brought in at least one elite late-inning reliever in free agency, especially since they weren't going to re-sign Dominguez and Bichette, and they lost out on Tucker.

To me, we have too many relievers who don't throw hard, walk too many, and are vulnerable to the HR. Lack of HR prevention in our BP was the difference in the WS. 

Tyler Rogers?

[Orgfiller]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Tyler Rogers?

Sorry he got infield singled to death the other day, he sucks.

[BTS]

Lost in the Hoffman implosion is that Louis Varland has become one of the best relievers in baseball. That trade is going to look like a steal unless Rojas becomes a rotation fixture in Minnesota 

[Terminator]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Jeff Hoffman first 4 appearances in 2026:

116 Stuff+ 

Jeff Hoffman since then:

95 Stuff+ 

 

It may have been somewhat obvious if you were watching his velocity and other stuff characteristics, but something is going on with him physically. We was sitting 97.7 and now he is down to 96.2. His slider is down 2 mph in a month. His splitter is actually up a bit, changing his FA-Split separation from 8 mph to 6 mph. 

This is the same trend we saw all through 2025. 

I think he's broken. The O's physical was right. 

He seems like a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher because he probably is one, depending on how much he hurts on any given day.

His 2025, taken as a whole with no context, looks like a decent RP (3.73 xFIP is rank 68 out of 191 RP with 40+ IP) who got very unlucky on homers (20% HR/FB is extreme). But he is starting off 2026 with the same stuff going on; I mean he has a 1.65 xFIP right now in 2026 thanks to all the early season strikeouts. 

It's all still small sample size stuff we would presume to be bad luck, most of the time. 77.1 innings as a Toronto Blue Jay. The folly of a relief pitcher. Pitcher HR/FB rates don't stabilize in that period of time. 

You can throw out so many of the numbers people look at. I don't care about the ERA, or the blown saves. The BABIP is ridiculous. The LOB% last year was lucky. The HR/FB for his last 77 innings is not his true talent. None of this matters. So much of it is noise.

BUT you can't ignore the velo trend and the declining Stuff+. His Stuff is gone from plus with Philadelphia to something that is way closer to average. Nobody should expect anything more than an average relief pitcher, going forward. That means middle relief... 

PitchingBot has his stuff as 193rd out of 250 so far
Stuff+ says 120th out of 250 in 2026

There is a decent chance he is worse than Tommy Nance. He might not be a top 5 RP in the Jays current bullpen. 

There's a lot of good stuff in this post but you might be jumping to conclusions.

If he had good stuff in his first 4 appearances and bad stuff in his last 6, there could be any number of explanations for that.

He could be sick, his mechanics could be slightly off, he has a minor injury, his confidence is down so he's aiming the ball, etc. All of that could be corrected and the stuff returns.

Or he could be permanently broken, as you said. He is getting up there a bit in age, after all. But there's no way to know that based off 6 appearances. 

[Laika]

52 minutes ago, Terminator said:

There's a lot of good stuff in this post but you might be jumping to conclusions.

If he had good stuff in his first 4 appearances and bad stuff in his last 6, there could be any number of explanations for that.

He could be sick, his mechanics could be slightly off, he has a minor injury, his confidence is down so he's aiming the ball, etc. All of that could be corrected and the stuff returns.

Or he could be permanently broken, as you said. He is getting up there a bit in age, after all. But there's no way to know that based off 6 appearances. 

Mostly the fact that he lost like 3 mph last year during the regular season, and he seems primed to do the same thing in 2026 

[RA Whiffleball]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Tyler Rogers?

Dominguez out, Rogers in, He is not an add.

Don't get me wrong, I like Rogers, but we need more 97-99 mph in our BP or this is going to be a long season. It seems every team we play rolls out these kind of arms in the late innings. We must be the only club that values 92-94 mph arms with lots of spin.

 

 

[jaysblue]

56K views · 335 reactions | So... Jeff Hoffman... #torontobluejays...

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So... Jeff Hoffman... #torontobluejays #sick #thesidseixeiroshow

 

[The_DH]

I was watching some of the pitches that Hoffman got beaten on.  Individually they didn't look that bad.  I'm just wondering if he's somehow telegraphing his pitches or sequences.

[Laika]

Just now, The_DH said:

I was watching some of the pitches that Hoffman got beaten on.  Individually they didn't look that bad.  I'm just wondering if he's somehow telegraphing his pitches or sequences.

Anecdotally this does seem to happen.

I don't think he is tipping or anything because he fools hitters all the time but he will miss with back to back splitters so the LHB knows a FB is coming, for example. Stuff like that. 

Varying types of inconsistencies 

[Orgfiller]

Maybe he emits bad cosmic energy? Drafted by the team, traded away and then came back to reset the bad energy. He has a Thanos tattoo and a closer's entrance that revolves around it, kind of cringe? He has an absurd K rate - second best in the league - but an almost unbelievable .571 BABIP and a 33% HR/FB rate on the few times they're making contact. Maybe the universe just thinks he has bad vibes and is punishing him for it.

[RA Whiffleball]

21 hours ago, Stangstag said:

HR rate was an issue for the entire staff last season.

Also, the manager is not gonna come out and blast his players to the media (unless you’re Vitello who can’t keep his mouth shut)

Hoffman has obviously been moved down the pecking order with him pitching the 8th the other day, whether the manager says so or not.

And finally, its not usually worth investing highly into relief pitchers on big contracts as they have an extremely high chance of turning to s*** immediately 

I`m more worried about HRs allowed by the BP. That was the difference in the WS. Everyone was saying their BP was their Achilles Heel, but ultimately it was our BP`s inability to prevent the HR that cost us the series. 

Their BP only allowed 1 HR in the entire WS, the Barger GS in a blowout game 1. In the critical games 3 and 7, their BP went 22 innings without allowing a HR. If their BP gives up even 1 HR in that span, in either game, the Jays win the series. Conversely, in the 20 innings our BP threw in those 2 games, we gave up 5 HR, 2 of which tied the game late, and 2 of which broke a tie late to win the game.

 

[AMS528]

Random aside, but I remember on the old version of these boards, the minor league thread would often have tons of activity through the year (whether the big league team was good or not). I feel like it gets buried underneath the great updates threads in the minor league part of the forum. No one posts in that thread for weeks. I get the sense like 90% of people only click on Toronto Blue Jays Talk. 

It'd be nice to have that aspect of the team be active as well with discussion, maybe one general minor league thread on this part of the forum would work? 

I was going to ask if Charles McAdoo had made any changes or looked better with his numbers looking great in Buffalo but the last post in there was April 7th. 

[Brownie19]

45 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

Random aside, but I remember on the old version of these boards, the minor league thread would often have tons of activity through the year (whether the big league team was good or not). I feel like it gets buried underneath the great updates threads in the minor league part of the forum. No one posts in that thread for weeks. I get the sense like 90% of people only click on Toronto Blue Jays Talk. 

It'd be nice to have that aspect of the team be active as well with discussion, maybe one general minor league thread on this part of the forum would work? 

I was going to ask if Charles McAdoo had made any changes or looked better with his numbers looking great in Buffalo but the last post in there was April 7th. 

I think I made a similar comment last week.  I'd like the minor league prospect thread under the Toronto Blue Jays Talk section as well.  It used to be my favourite thread.

[Laika]

18 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I think I made a similar comment last week.  I'd like the minor league prospect thread under the Toronto Blue Jays Talk section as well.  It used to be my favourite thread.

I made a crossover thread yesterday! 

I think we can use it for the highlights and top prospect stuff. The in depth info and deep dives can stay in the minor league subforum.

[BTS]

I'm still on the Hoffman train. His K-BB is like 33% and the stuff is still above average. Just have to assume the results fall into place eventually. 

xFIP is 1.22

xERA 2.57

ERA inflated with a 0.571 BABIP and 33.3% HR/FB. Easiest regression candidate in baseball right now, 

[Olerud363.354]

Dumb stat but it is the second I have invented after 'bases clogged' (walks + double - stolen bases - triples), lower is better.  For example John Olerud has a lot of clogged bases (100 walks 40 doubles 0 steals 0 triples in a year would give you 140 clogged bases).   Vince Colemen in his prime might have 50 walks 15 doubles 110 steals and 10 triples.   That's like -55 clogged bases (negative is good, not clogging bases).

Second stat I am inventing is called LOD.  LOD stands for Leverage OPS dif.  

a) Take worst of your lead-off or second hitter and subtract the OPS against of your closer from it.  Jeff Hoffman last year was like .750 or something, Nathan Lukes, who hit second game 7 of World Series was .730 or so LOD is -20 or so.  That is bad.  You'd like the LOD to be 200-300 (.800 OPS for worst of first or second hitter, .500 to .600 OPS against for closer.

Kind of being stupid here, but the point is that for a World Series contender the closer should have a good OPS against (.500 or .600), and 1st and 2nd good OPS for (around .800 at least).  They are the ones pitching the critical inning and getting the most at bats.  Now of course not every team is perfect, but I bet almost every team with a bad LOD can fix this stat very easily.  Hit Vlad second, Varland closes and LOD is like 400 or something. 

So teams could have both actual LOD (decision by management) and optimum LOD (what it could be if players used in best way. 

[Terminator]

24 minutes ago, BTS said:

I'm still on the Hoffman train. His K-BB is like 33% and the stuff is still above average. Just have to assume the results fall into place eventually. 

xFIP is 1.22

xERA 2.57

ERA inflated with a 0.571 BABIP and 33.3% HR/FB. Easiest regression candidate in baseball right now, 

In addition his LOB% is 58%, adding to his s*** luck. But his peripherals are insane. 

To the eye it seems like he'll hang a pitch over the plate far too often. But even so, you would expect him to get away with that far more often than he has been.

I'm hopeful he will right the ship.