Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[jaysblue]

8 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Keller is a name you don't hear mentioned a lot. He was fantastic last year in his first as a RPer.  Wonder what he's going to get.  He could be a value addition - although there's risk as he doesn't have a long track record.

Someone to consider if we don't have $13-15M AAV available to sign a top end closer.

Mentioned Keller's name last week and he would be a great value addition to the pen if the Jays decide not to spend $ on the other top options. 

[jaysblue]

8 hours ago, Pendleton said:

Yeah it's high end reliever money for a high end reliever, for only three years I would have been totally fine with it. I'd take Robert Suarez on a similar contract 

 

 

I'm not that crazy about Robert Suarez to be honest. 

He's already 34 and prior to this season wasn't really an elite closer or anything special. His K/9 this season was decent but nothing elite like Diaz or Williams. 

Would rather save that money and target guys like Keller or Fairbanks at a fraction of the cost and years. 

[glory]

It does feel like it will be Keller or Fairbanks, which would feel kinda unspectacular but as Hoffman proved, long term deals for relievers aren’t always optimal. I highly doubt they go towards Diaz but seems pretty straight forward if they want him. Give him the years he wants and he’s yours (sounds like he wants 5). They did it with Cease. Not sure they’d do it for a reliever but who knows.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

I'm not that crazy about Robert Suarez to be honest. 

He's already 34 and prior to this season wasn't really an elite closer or anything special. His K/9 this season was decent but nothing elite like Diaz or Williams. 

Would rather save that money and target guys like Keller or Fairbanks at a fraction of the cost and years. 

I tend to agree with this.  All of it.  

I'm not sure I saw it posted here, but Helsley ended up getting a 2 year $28M deal.  Year 2 is a player option and he gets an extra $500K if he's traded.

So if he returns to form, it's a 1 year $14M deal - which is really good value.  If he sucks again, you're probably stuck with him for a 2nd year at $14M.  I think that's worth the risk given his track record.

[Orgfiller]

Not sure why people are down on Robert Suarez. By Pitching+ he was the 12th best reliever in the MLB last season. He's firmly in that second tier of available relievers in free agency this offseason alongside Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Fairbanks, except unlike most of them he was still trending positively, improving his K-BB% rate substantially, so he's arguably the best of those options.

Elite velocity, tough on righties and handles lefties well with his changeup. With his age, you would think he wouldn't need a huge commitment. I'd be quite satisfied if he was our top option in the bullpen, certainly at least throughout the first half of the season.

[Brownie19]

10 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Not sure why people are down on Robert Suarez. By Pitching+ he was the 12th best reliever in the MLB last season. He's firmly in that second tier of available relievers in free agency this offseason alongside Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Fairbanks, except unlike most of them he was still trending positively, improving his K-BB% rate substantially, so he's arguably the best of those options.

Elite velocity, tough on righties and handles lefties well with his changeup. With his age, you would think he wouldn't need a huge commitment. I'd be quite satisfied if he was our top option in the bullpen, certainly at least throughout the first half of the season.

I assumed Suarez is viewed in the same tier as Diaz and Williams and will command a 3 year deal similar to Williams (maybe a little less?).  I don't like him at that price, as he doesn't generate the same whiff rates or K%.  If the market views him in the Fairbanks/Helsley tier and you could get him for 2 years $28M, then I'd be firmly back on board with that. 

[Jimcanuck]

I doubt the Jays are going to pony up big dollars for a reliever when they already have Hoffman.  Agree a lower tier target like Fairbanks and Keller is possible.

[jmomcc]

I think you need to just decide on a contract extension prediction source and then have opinions based on that. Because the contract terms matter obviously. 

anyway, mlb trade rumours have saurez 3/48 and keller at 3/36

- Diaz is 4/82

- Ponce is 2/22

- Finnegan 2/20 

- Weaver 2/18 

- Rogers 2/18 

- Seranthony 2/18 

- Fairbanks 2/18 

- G Soto 2/16 

- Pagan 2/16 

- Nick Martinez 2/25

They have been pretty close so far. 

Cease was 7/189 which with deferrals is essentially spot on . Helsey was 2/24 so a little low. Williams was 4/68 which i think is a bit lower than he got aav wise. iglesias was 2/26 so 1/16 looks close if you factor in extra for a one year deal. 

 

 

[jmomcc]

Of all those i'd sign Ponce selling him on swingman to start. And then rogers seems like great value. 

[Terminator]

33 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I think you need to just decide on a contract extension prediction source and then have opinions based on that. Because the contract terms matter obviously. 

anyway, mlb trade rumours have saurez 3/48 and keller at 3/36

- Diaz is 4/82

- Ponce is 2/22

- Finnegan 2/20 

- Weaver 2/18 

- Rogers 2/18 

- Seranthony 2/18 

- Fairbanks 2/18 

- G Soto 2/16 

- Pagan 2/16 

- Nick Martinez 2/25

They have been pretty close so far. 

Cease was 7/189 which with deferrals is essentially spot on . Helsey was 2/24 so a little low. Williams was 4/68 which i think is a bit lower than he got aav wise. iglesias was 2/26 so 1/16 looks close if you factor in extra for a one year deal. 

 

 

• I’d go Rogers first. A setup man who can make 80 appearances would be awesome and he shouldn't break the bank.
• Ponce is interesting but probably gets a rotation job elsewhere.
• Fairbanks is worth a look but we'd need some bells and whistles in his contract if those are the terms. Throw SerAnthony and Soto into this bucket too.
• Diaz at that price is tempting, but not if it keeps us from bringing back Bo or chasing Tucker.

[Hipfan]

I want Diaz, and I don’t care about the “value” of the contract. We were 2 outs away from the World Series, and Diaz can take us there. Sign Diaz, Bo, Bassett, trade Berrios and be done with it.

[jmomcc]

14 minutes ago, Terminator said:

• I’d go Rogers first. A setup man who can make 80 appearances would be awesome and he shouldn't break the bank.
• Ponce is interesting but probably gets a rotation job elsewhere.
• Fairbanks is worth a look but we'd need some bells and whistles in his contract if those are the terms. Throw SerAnthony and Soto into this bucket too.
• Diaz at that price is tempting, but not if it keeps us from bringing back Bo or chasing Tucker.

I'm not comfortable paying a reliever what diaz wants honestly. 

I'd be willing to overpay ponce a bit. Just like, we probably need him as a 6th starter at some point, and then if he isn't a playoff starter he could be dynamite in the pen. 

[BTS]

Ponce is traveling to NA earlier than expected because he's getting a lot of interest. He'll be signing with a team with a clear need in the rotation. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'm not a big fan of the Jays spending big on relievers, but if they are opening up the wallet and it won't limit their ability to spend elsewhere, then go and get Diaz for sure.

[Jimcanuck]

22 minutes ago, Hipfan said:

I want Diaz, and I don’t care about the “value” of the contract. We were 2 outs away from the World Series, and Diaz can take us there. Sign Diaz, Bo, Bassett, trade Berrios and be done with it.

that would slightly increase the odds of a Jays WS win

[Brownie19]

34 minutes ago, Terminator said:

• I’d go Rogers first. A setup man who can make 80 appearances would be awesome and he shouldn't break the bank.
• Ponce is interesting but probably gets a rotation job elsewhere.
• Fairbanks is worth a look but we'd need some bells and whistles in his contract if those are the terms. Throw SerAnthony and Soto into this bucket too.
• Diaz at that price is tempting, but not if it keeps us from bringing back Bo or chasing Tucker.

Help me understand the alure of Rogers.  He's entering his age 35 season and had a K/9 below 6 last year.  I know the results were great last year (and very good the 2 years previous).  I guess I just struggle with the unconventional approach.  I need to talk with Jonah Hill more.

Did Detroit change Finnegan at all?  He was lights out for them (SSS alert).  Maybe just got some BABIP luck and some LOB% luck?

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Help me understand the alure of Rogers.  He's entering his age 35 season and had a K/9 below 6 last year.  I know the results were great last year (and very good the 2 years previous).  I guess I just struggle with the unconventional approach.  I need to talk with Jonah Hill more.

Did Detroit change Finnegan at all?  He was lights out for them (SSS alert).  Maybe just got some BABIP luck and some LOB% luck?

Rogers is impossible to square up. If you look at his savant page, he routinely rates in the top 99-100th percentile in avg exit velo, 95+ percentile in barrel rate, and also among the top in GB rate. He also walks nobody. So you're getting him into games and he immediately provides a very different look to any other pitcher that hitters see throughout the year, resulting in uncomfortable ABs with lots of strikes and extremely weak contact.

He's not really the guy you put in with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs to get a much needed strikeout, although he could work if you want to induce a groundball at a defender to come home on or turn 2, it's unlikely he's giving up a deep flyball.

His low velo and arm angle also means he's a rubber arm who never misses time and can pitch whenever.

Finnegan is a fastball-splitter guy, who started locating much better when he arrived in Detroit. Hard to say if that's sustainable, although I would believe you if you told me that Detroit is ahead of the curve compared to Washington when it comes to pitching more effectively. His stuff didn't change at all, although Detroit doubled his splitter usage and limited the fastball, pretty much pitching backwards leveraging his best pitch most often.

[jmomcc]

54 minutes ago, BTS said:

Ponce is traveling to NA earlier than expected because he's getting a lot of interest. He'll be signing with a team with a clear need in the rotation. 

Yea that's fair. I think some team will get a steal with him. 

[mphenhef]

Imagine going from Trey to Rogers and having any hope of picking up the ball.

[glory]

From BNS:

Quote

With all of that in mind and Lauer’s ability to make a difference out of the bullpen if needed, it’s no surprise that the Blue Jays have remained engaged on the starting pitching market since agreeing to terms with Cease. One pitcher who could be of interest is Michael King, Cease’s former teammate with the Padres with a lifetime 3.24 ERA and a plus changeup.

Granted, teams express interest in many players this time of year, and it’s not yet clear whether there's serious traction with King or other potential targets such as Bassitt or Scherzer, both of whom have publicly expressed openness to a reunion.

 

Quote

It’s also notable that Monday marked the official opening for signing international free agents like Cody Ponce, who struck out 252 hitters on his way to a 1.89 ERA in Korea this past season. Thanks to their growing presence in the Pacific Rim, the Blue Jays have had the chance to do plenty of background work of Ponce, who’s now seen as a likely candidate to land a multi-year deal.

Some industry observers suggest Ponce's market could move quickly now that he's eligible to sign. It stands to reason that the Blue Jays will remain involved there.

 

Honestly looking at what's left of the RP market, it wouldn't be the worst pivot to add another SP instead. It would create a glut of SPs but that's never been a bad problem to have. Fairbanks, Suarez, Keller, etc, all feel pretty underwhelming to me depending on the cost.

[jmomcc]

I'd love king or ponce. King can be really really good. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Rogers is impossible to square up. If you look at his savant page, he routinely rates in the top 99-100th percentile in avg exit velo, 95+ percentile in barrel rate, and also among the top in GB rate. He also walks nobody. So you're getting him into games and he immediately provides a very different look to any other pitcher that hitters see throughout the year, resulting in uncomfortable ABs with lots of strikes and extremely weak contact.

He's not really the guy you put in with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs to get a much needed strikeout, although he could work if you want to induce a groundball at a defender to come home on or turn 2, it's unlikely he's giving up a deep flyball.

His low velo and arm angle also means he's a rubber arm who never misses time and can pitch whenever.

Finnegan is a fastball-splitter guy, who started locating much better when he arrived in Detroit. Hard to say if that's sustainable, although I would believe you if you told me that Detroit is ahead of the curve compared to Washington when it comes to pitching more effectively. His stuff didn't change at all, although Detroit double his splitter usage and limited the fastball, pretty much pitching backwards leveraging his best pitch most often.

Thanks - all fair points.  Rogers is kinda what we hoped Sandlin would provide.  He's like the premium version of Cimber.  That type of arm certainly has a lot of value.  I think my concern might be that it can't be used in every situation and I have recency bias with the inability of Sandlin or Cimber to sustain success.

Finnegan might also be a solid 'budget' option if you think the gains are sustainable.  Although I suspect some crappy team will offer him the chance to close.  I keep forgetting that Stuff+ is on Fangraphs now and that you can show partial seasons.  I wish you could do that on the Savant page too!

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I'd love king or ponce. King can be really really good. 

It would be bananas (B-A-N-A-N-A-S) if the Jays signed another starter like King.  Someone is going to give Ponce a guaranteed roster spot.  I don't see us landing either to be honest.  If we do add another - I would bet it's Bassitt.

[Eat My Shatkins]

In my opinion, if the Jays land another legit starting option it means that Berrios is either still injured or the Jays and him are on the outs moving forward and they plan to find a trade partner to offload him once the free agent SP market has dried up.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Also I just want to say i think it's hilarious and awesome that the Jays have 5 legit starters already, plus Lauer and not only are they still apparently on the hunt for more, it also appears from player comments that they could probably sign both Bassitt and Scherzer today if they wanted to. That's no joke really, as Bassitt and Scherzer combine for over a 3 fWAR projection. 

[Terminator]

I could see Scherzer coming back on the Kershaw plan.

Sign for a discount at 1 year, 8 mil. He and his wife love it here and he doesn’t need the money. He can take the first couple of months off and then we can figure it out from there. We are contenders so he’ll get another crack at a ring.

Bassitt is probably a little tougher to add as he’s looking at bigger contracts and a more guaranteed rotation spot. Would probably need to trade Berrios but that feels like we are spinning our tires a bit.

 

[max silver]

36 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Thanks - all fair points.  Rogers is kinda what we hoped Sandlin would provide.  He's like the premium version of Cimber.  That type of arm certainly has a lot of value.  I think my concern might be that it can't be used in every situation and I have recency bias with the inability of Sandlin or Cimber to sustain success.

Finnegan might also be a solid 'budget' option if you think the gains are sustainable.  Although I suspect some crappy team will offer him the chance to close.  I keep forgetting that Stuff+ is on Fangraphs now and that you can show partial seasons.  I wish you could do that on the Savant page too!

My concern with soft tossing relievers is that they often have little margin for error once the stuff starts to slip even a little bit. We saw this with Cimber as he became awfully easy to square up once his stuff dipped a touch and I think that Sandlin was starting to experience this as well.

For Baseball Savant I don't know of a way to display percentile rankings for a partial season sample, but it is possible to do Statcast searches for specific date ranges on Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

[Pendleton]

With the lack of higher upside SP options on the FA market, someone will pay Ponce like a #4 SP for 3-4 years.

[Spanky__99]

36 minutes ago, Pendleton said:

With the lack of higher upside SP options on the FA market, someone will pay Ponce like a #4 SP for 3-4 years.

Likely, not sure about term though. Someone going the extra year gets him though. Also, I'm not sure BNS knows what he's talking about. 😜

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

It would be bananas (B-A-N-A-N-A-S) if the Jays signed another starter like King.  Someone is going to give Ponce a guaranteed roster spot.  I don't see us landing either to be honest.  If we do add another - I would bet it's Bassitt.

Righty Bassitt and Lefty Lauer out of the bullpen and who can both start as needed would be a powerful tool.