[ALDS GM3] : Yankees (Rodon) vs Blue Jays (Bieber): 10/06/25, 8:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Advance!

[wewlad]

LETS f***ING GET IT BOYS, BIEBER FEVER DAY HOLY

[Stangstag]

Okay Biebs lets close this one out!

[Laika]

Odds are probably something like:

Today - 43% Jays to win (on the road vs. Rodon)
Tomorrow - 40% Jays to win (bullpen game on the road vs. Schlittler)

So the Yankees odds to win both are like 34% 

Point being - Jays will be dogs for these two New York games but they don't need to win them both. Just need one big game from the offense or from the pitching staff. Bieber could dominate. 

Yankees need everything to go right. Jays just need one thing to go right (or wrong, for the Yankees). 

Rodon is not an Ace anymore. His velo did decline slowly over 2025. He's a solid SP2 but command can wobble and he's not exactly dominant. 

[glory]

After seeing Lauer and Nance get nuked last game, I’m not sure I want a bullpen game on the road so close this one out tonight. 

[neverbeenhere]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

After seeing Lauer and Nance get nuked last game, I’m not sure I want a bullpen game on the road so close this one out tonight. 

It was not surprising to see that from Nance, but Lauer was supersizing 

[BatFlip]

Let's gooooooo boys!  It's Bieber time!

[max silver]

46 minutes ago, glory said:

After seeing Lauer and Nance get nuked last game, I’m not sure I want a bullpen game on the road so close this one out tonight. 

Yeah gotta get this one done tonight if at all possible. It would be an all bullpen hands on deck situation in a game 4 and with yesterday's day off I would expect everyone in the pen should be available for tomorrow's game if required and the team wouldn't necessarily be forced to use either of Lauer or Nance as a result.

[Masterbather]

I'm surprised to see that Bieber has reverse splits this year. His splits have been pretty even for his career. I wonder if that's just small sample size or if there's something more to it.

[Jonn]

The headline has been swept under the rug a bit but this is a big start for Shane Bieber. He’s got a lot to pitch for individually. He’s got that 16 million dollar player option looming. Which he will 100% decline if healthy. But he’s gotta show teams he’s good enough to want to lock up for 4 or 5+ years. Going into Yankee Stadium and helping his team close out the Yankees will go a long way into accomplishing that goal.

[Orgfiller]

3 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

I'm surprised to see that Bieber has reverse splits this year. His splits have been pretty even for his career. I wonder if that's just small sample size or if there's something more to it.

I'm sure SSS is part of it, but he's upped his changeup usage quite significantly since earlier in his career. 13% changeup usage with 13% cutter usage, both of which are pitches meant to neutralize the opposite handedness. I figure his breaking ball command hasn't quite been where he's wanted it to be for RHH, so maybe that's why he's been hit a little harder by them.

[GoBlue41]

This is why the Blue Jays got Bieber........ for exactly THIS moment!!! LFG!!!!

[Masterbather]

15 minutes ago, Jonn said:

The headline has been swept under the rug a bit but this is a big start for Shane Bieber. He’s got a lot to pitch for individually. He’s got that 16 million dollar player option looming. Which he will 100% decline if healthy. But he’s gotta show teams he’s good enough to want to lock up for 4 or 5+ years. Going into Yankee Stadium and helping his team close out the Yankees will go a long way into accomplishing that goal.

Well all the media focus has been on Carlos Rodon, and how the Yankees for some reason have the pitching edge. 

I guess Shane Bieber is suddenly some no-named schlub.

[Masterbather]

10 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

I'm sure SSS is part of it, but he's upped his changeup usage quite significantly since earlier in his career. 13% changeup usage with 13% cutter usage, both of which are pitches meant to neutralize the opposite handedness. I figure his breaking ball command hasn't quite been where he's wanted it to be for RHH, so maybe that's why he's been hit a little harder by them.

I've heard he's throwing a different type of change this year, one that's better than the one he's used in the past. So there could be something to it. 

He just needs to keep that ball in the ballpark.

[infinitebook]

Rodon had alot of trouble putting away Jays batters last time, over 100 pitches just to get through 5 innings, including a marathon battle with Schneider 

[Laika]

2025 Rodon v Toronto

2 GS
10 IP
11 H
6 R
4 ER
0 HR
8 BB
8 K 

 

PEDESTRIAN

[SeranthonySantander]

I would have liked to have a CY young winner for a non shortened season who isn’t stitched together but I won’t be picky.  We only need him for 4-5 games.  You’d think the warranty on a Tommy John should be longer than a dozen games.

[Olerud363.354]

Is Bieber's stuff back?  Is he 2022 Bieber?  

Seems like his k-rate was insane 2019-2020.  Are those days gone forever?  

What is possible from a guy who has rested 10 days and may get 8 more off if he wins?

[John_Havok]

I irrationally hope today's game is another blowout in the Jays favour, just for the Yankee tears alone. They are delicious and I could drink them all day long. 

I don't think that will happen, probably a much more scrappy game, but still, I don't want to see the Jays at the dome again until the CS

[Laika]

9 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I irrationally hope today's game is another blowout in the Jays favour, just for the Yankee tears alone. They are delicious and I could drink them all day long. 

I don't think that will happen, probably a much more scrappy game, but still, I don't want to see the Jays at the dome again until the CS

I have spent so much time since Saturday on the Yankees message boards and listening to Yankees podcasts
It's glorious stuff
 

[infinitebook]

34 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Is Bieber's stuff back?  Is he 2022 Bieber?  

Seems like his k-rate was insane 2019-2020.  Are those days gone forever?  

What is possible from a guy who has rested 10 days and may get 8 more off if he wins?

His command is there, and his fastball velocity, he is just giving up more hard hits than before. The key will be keeping it in the ballpark. 

Bieber basically has had one bad inning, when he gave up a 5 spot to the Reds, in which he bounced back and still won the game.  I don't really see Rodon being an advantage for the Yanks, if anything it's a wash.

[Laika]

33 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Is Bieber's stuff back?  Is he 2022 Bieber?  

Seems like his k-rate was insane 2019-2020.  Are those days gone forever?  

What is possible from a guy who has rested 10 days and may get 8 more off if he wins?

He is a weird guy to evaluate on stuff 

Until mid 2021 he threw 93/94 and could touch 95+. He might have started to hurt late in 2021 (velo graph).

Then in 2022 pre-injury Bieber (PIB) began and his velo went down a tick and the stuff went with it.

This version of Bieber is similar to PIB but there are a few important differences:

• Better fastball now 94 Stuff+ vs 87 Stuff+
• Worse slider and curve now (85 and 92 Stuff+ vs 95 and 104 Stuff+)
• Better changeup now (103 Stuff+ vs 76)

PIB was surviving on good breaking balls and good command. 

Post TJS Bieber has some velo back, and a better change, and good command, but he does not have his PIB breaking balls! 

The Bieber who existed until 2021 is gone forever. The velo is not coming back. But if he can find that knuckle curve again, he could be Ace(ish). If he never finds his spin again, this could be more of  Merrill Kelly or Zac Gallen experience in the future. 

[Laika]

what if we just... step on their necks?

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

Well all the media focus has been on Carlos Rodon, and how the Yankees for some reason have the pitching edge. 

I guess Shane Bieber is suddenly some no-named schlub.

Plus hot Vladdy vs Rodon is a great matchup in our favour

[Terminator]

Let’s hammer these a$$holes.

I want Vlad launching a nuke in the first inning and I want him to pimp it so hard that the boos start raining down before he even hits first base.

I want Yankees fans to watch ball after ball clank off the wall while their infield boots routine plays. Their strikeouts piling up, the scoreboard flipping like a slot machine for the visitors.

And I want nine full innings of the broadcast camera glued to Aaron Boone’s face as he slowly, visibly realizes this is it. This is the night it all ends, that he’s watching his last game as Yankee manager unfold pitch by pitch.

Run wild on the bases. Pound the zone. Make the plays. Break their spirit.

Let’s bury these frauds. Go Jays.

[Masterbather]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

what if we just... step on their necks?

What I wouldn't give for us to put up a crooked number in the first inning and have Rodon sent to the showers before the Yankees even pick up a bat.

Given what has happened in the first two games it seems excessively greedy to ask for, it's not likely, but man would it be nice. 

[Stangstag]

41 minutes ago, Laika said:

I have spent so much time since Saturday on the Yankees message boards and listening to Yankees podcasts
It's glorious stuff
 

It only matters if the Jays can finish this series. If we somehow choke it we will never hear the end of it. We just need 1 more good game.

Honestly I would not feel bad losing to either of Det/Seattle in the CS if we beat the Yankees.

[mphenhef]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Odds are probably something like:

Today - 43% Jays to win (on the road vs. Rodon)
Tomorrow - 40% Jays to win (bullpen game on the road vs. Schlittler)

So the Yankees odds to win both are like 34% 

Point being - Jays will be dogs for these two New York games but they don't need to win them both. Just need one big game from the offense or from the pitching staff. Bieber could dominate. 

Yankees need everything to go right. Jays just need one thing to go right (or wrong, for the Yankees). 

Rodon is not an Ace anymore. His velo did decline slowly over 2025. He's a solid SP2 but command can wobble and he's not exactly dominant. 

Rodon on more than 4 days rest had much better numbers than Rodon on 4 days rest this year.  Nearly a 1 ERA difference I believe.    

[Masterbather]

6 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

It only matters if the Jays can finish this series. If we somehow choke it we will never hear the end of it. We just need 1 more good game.

Honestly I would not feel bad losing to either of Det/Seattle in the CS if we beat the Yankees.

I'd rather just lose to the Yankees.

They are the biggest roadblock in the American League in my mind, to manage to get by them and then to lose to teams I think we should beat would f***ing suck (especially Detroit). It would be a massive missed opportunity.

Beating the Yankees is wonderful, but they are not my world series, the World Series is my World Series.

[G-Snarls]

I want them to make it to the World Series at this point.  It feels like they can and that this is their best chance in a decade.  

The Dodgers, Brewers and Phiiles are really good won't be too upset if they lose to either once they get there