Come on Vlad!!!

[Olerud363.354]

48 minutes ago, Governator said:

It's not useless, Vlad came here during the off week, saw the thread title and said "Yes Big_Walleye I got to stop stop hitting dribblers back to the pitcher, thats my f***ing problem!"

Thus a star was born

I am sure the Blue Jays high performance analytics team is having the same conversation as Big_Walleye started, but with better data and better professionalism.  A bunch of them are talking the same things on their slack but way better data and communication skills. 

[Laika]

You can't define a tool by an output. Old scouts might talk about contact and batting average, but in reality the tool (if it even exists) should be something like this:

50 = MLB average ability to make contact
60 = decidedly above MLB average ability to make contact
70 = elite ability to make contact (top 2% to 3%)
80 = elite ability to make contact AND preternatural ability to actually control that contact (find the sweet spot, barrel it, go with the pitch, etc.) 

Vlad is just a 70 for me because he has struggled with barrel control and batted ball profiles too often 

And you can't just look at contact rate because the player's approach plays into this. Swinging and missing isn't always bad. You can't just slap 70 and 80s on the highest contact % guys because lots of them are just letting the ball travel and throwing their bat at it. An 80 for me is elite contact + another elite element demonstrating special control of the barrel. Not even sure Luis Arraez qualifies because I don't watch him enough. 

[Olerud363.354]

31 minutes ago, Laika said:

You can't define a tool by an output.

I think you can say that the tool should lead to an outcome.  Under narrow definition 'hit tool' leads to batting average (with power tool and plate discipline tool leading to other outcomes) we have enough data for Arraez and Vlad to say their in game 'hit tool' is 80 for Arraez 65/70 for Vlad.  Vlad's power tool is around 65 too, and plate discipline tool about that too.  Where an 80/80/80 would be mid 90s Frank Thomas.   Arraez is like an 80/30/30 or something. 

31 minutes ago, Laika said:

Vlad is just a 70 for me because he has struggled with barrel control and batted ball profiles too often 

Thing I am curious about is whether the limitation is inherent, like his hand eye coorrdination and body control is 98th percentile not 99.9.  Or if the next 5 years will be incredible as he finally makes the small mechanical tweak that unlocks the beast.   I think Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Big Papi, Cabrera actually all took it to the next level age 27-33.  It's a bit hidden because of offense levels.   Ramirez, Cabrera were maybe 145 wRC+ until age 26.  Then like 165 age 27-33. 

[Terminator]

A lot of people on this board owe Vlad an apology.

Normally, I'd suggest you all get together and combine on a big Swiss Chalet gift card for him but:

1. he can afford to eat there on his own accord, and
2. we don't need him eating that many calories anyway.

I think a normal apology works in this situation so all of you haters and losers (of which there are many) need to start fessing up.

Who's going to start?

[G-Snarls]

50 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I think you can say that the tool should lead to an outcome.  Under narrow definition 'hit tool' leads to batting average (with power tool and plate discipline tool leading to other outcomes) we have enough data for Arraez and Vlad to say their in game 'hit tool' is 80 for Arraez 65/70 for Vlad.  Vlad's power tool is around 65 too, and plate discipline tool about that too.  Where an 80/80/80 would be mid 90s Frank Thomas.   Arraez is like an 80/30/30 or something. 

Thing I am curious about is whether the limitation is inherent, like his hand eye coorrdination and body control is 98th percentile not 99.9.  Or if the next 5 years will be incredible as he finally makes the small mechanical tweak that unlocks the beast.   I think Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Big Papi, Cabrera actually all took it to the next level age 27-33.  It's a bit hidden because of offense levels.   Ramirez, Cabrera were maybe 145 wRC+ until age 26.  Then like 165 age 27-33. 

What GPT tells me about a comp to Manny:

-

Got it—here’s a FanGraphs-based, apples-to-apples look at Manny Ramírez vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. through their age-25 seasons (Ramírez through 1997; Guerrero Jr. through 2024).

Snapshot totals (MLB only, through age-25 season)

• Plate Appearances (PA): Ramírez 2,260; Guerrero Jr. 3,540. FanGraphs Baseball FanGraphs Baseball

• HR / RBI: Ramírez 112 HR / 372 RBI; Guerrero Jr. 160 HR / 507 RBI. FanGraphs Baseball FanGraphs Baseball

• fWAR: Ramírez 13.0; Guerrero Jr. 16.7. (Sum of season WAR on FanGraphs pages.) FanGraphs Baseball+1

Season-by-season (key rate stats & value)

• Ramírez (ages 21–25, 1993–1997)
  wRC+: 30, 120, 145, 140, 148; WAR: –0.6, 1.5, 3.2, 4.3, 4.6.
  BB%/K% stabilized quickly near ~12–13% / 16–18% by ages 23–25. FanGraphs Baseball

• Guerrero Jr. (ages 20–25, 2019–2024)
  wRC+: 106, 110, 166, 132, 117, 164; WAR: 0.3, 0.3, 6.3, 3.3, 1.2, 5.3.
  BB%/K% around ~10–12% / 14–16% in best years (2021, 2024). FanGraphs Baseball

What it says

• Peak bat (so far): Both posted elite peak-year production by age 25. Ramírez’s best pre-26 wRC+ was 148 (1997). Vlad has already exceeded that twice (166 in 2021, 164 in 2024). FanGraphs Baseball+1

• Cumulative value: Vlad leads in early-career fWAR (16.7 vs. 13.0), aided by more PA (debuted younger, full 2020 counted) and two MVP-caliber seasons. FanGraphs Baseball+1

• Discipline profile: Ramírez walked a tick more and struck out a bit more (~12–13% BB, ~16–18% K), while Vlad’s best seasons show similar walks with slightly lower Ks (~10–12% BB, ~14–16% K). FanGraphs Baseball+1

• Shape of offense: Ramírez’s ISO settled ~.250–.270 by 24–25; Vlad’s peak ISOs are similar or higher in 2021–24. (See ISO column on each page.) FanGraphs Baseball+1

[Jonn]

24 minutes ago, Terminator said:

A lot of people on this board owe Vlad an apology.

Normally, I'd suggest you all get together and combine on a big Swiss Chalet gift card for him but:

1. he can afford to eat there on his own accord, and
2. we don't need him eating that many calories anyway.

I think a normal apology works in this situation so all of you haters and losers (of which there are many) need to start fessing up.

Who's going to start?

I apologize to the King of New York. I knew he liked playing in the Bronx. I didn't know he was going to decide to take it over.

[Laika]

42 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

What GPT tells me about a comp to Manny:

-

Got it—here’s a FanGraphs-based, apples-to-apples look at Manny Ramírez vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. through their age-25 seasons (Ramírez through 1997; Guerrero Jr. through 2024).

Snapshot totals (MLB only, through age-25 season)

• Plate Appearances (PA): Ramírez 2,260; Guerrero Jr. 3,540. FanGraphs Baseball FanGraphs Baseball

• HR / RBI: Ramírez 112 HR / 372 RBI; Guerrero Jr. 160 HR / 507 RBI. FanGraphs Baseball FanGraphs Baseball

• fWAR: Ramírez 13.0; Guerrero Jr. 16.7. (Sum of season WAR on FanGraphs pages.) FanGraphs Baseball+1

Season-by-season (key rate stats & value)

• Ramírez (ages 21–25, 1993–1997)
  wRC+: 30, 120, 145, 140, 148; WAR: –0.6, 1.5, 3.2, 4.3, 4.6.
  BB%/K% stabilized quickly near ~12–13% / 16–18% by ages 23–25. FanGraphs Baseball

• Guerrero Jr. (ages 20–25, 2019–2024)
  wRC+: 106, 110, 166, 132, 117, 164; WAR: 0.3, 0.3, 6.3, 3.3, 1.2, 5.3.
  BB%/K% around ~10–12% / 14–16% in best years (2021, 2024). FanGraphs Baseball

What it says

• Peak bat (so far): Both posted elite peak-year production by age 25. Ramírez’s best pre-26 wRC+ was 148 (1997). Vlad has already exceeded that twice (166 in 2021, 164 in 2024). FanGraphs Baseball+1

• Cumulative value: Vlad leads in early-career fWAR (16.7 vs. 13.0), aided by more PA (debuted younger, full 2020 counted) and two MVP-caliber seasons. FanGraphs Baseball+1

• Discipline profile: Ramírez walked a tick more and struck out a bit more (~12–13% BB, ~16–18% K), while Vlad’s best seasons show similar walks with slightly lower Ks (~10–12% BB, ~14–16% K). FanGraphs Baseball+1

• Shape of offense: Ramírez’s ISO settled ~.250–.270 by 24–25; Vlad’s peak ISOs are similar or higher in 2021–24. (See ISO column on each page.) FanGraphs Baseball+1

Funny how GPT knows to use ISO and wRC+ and WAR

Smart computer 

[Olerud363.354]

I asked Chat to translate Vlad's stats to 90s levels.   Looks like a decent approximation but haven't checked it over deeply.   In wRC+ and fWAR he his close to Manny through age 26 and that seems wrong at first glance of stats, but adjusting stats to 90s levels makes Vlad look awesome. 

 

Got it — here’s Vlad Jr’s stats adjusted to 1990s levels (AVG + .015, OBP + .020, SLG × 1.10, HR × 1.20, RBI × 1.20).

Year	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
2019	.287	18	83	.359	.476
2020	.277	11	42	.349	.508
2021	.326	58	138	.421	.661
2022	.289	38	114	.359	.528
2023	.279	31	113	.365	.489
2024	.338	36	124	.416	.598
2025	.307	28	101	.383	.535

[Olerud363.354]

 

2 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

What GPT tells me about a comp to Manny

Vlad might be ... a bit better through age 26?  I think comparison with Cabrera is similar.  And they all crush Ortiz through age 26 of course because he was a mediocre platoon player for the Twins. 

The 30 point drop in batting average between 1996 and 2025 makes stat-lines look so much different.   

 

[Omar]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

A lot of people on this board owe Vlad an apology.

Normally, I'd suggest you all get together and combine on a big Swiss Chalet gift card for him but:

1. he can afford to eat there on his own accord, and
2. we don't need him eating that many calories anyway.

I think a normal apology works in this situation so all of you haters and losers (of which there are many) need to start fessing up.

Who's going to start?

Contrition is definitely required here.  I called the Vlad haters an embarrassment near the end of the season.

Who's going to man up and come clean?

[Terminator]

1 minute ago, Omar said:

Contrition is definitely required here.  I called the Vlad haters an embarrassment near the end of the season.

Who's going to man up and come clean?

So far only Jonn has had the courage to stand up and do the right thing.

[Jonn]

The older Vlad gets I think the scarier he gets because once he fully understands his ability to control the strikezone and attack the pitches he needs to attack that is when he truly becomes elite. We know he can hit the ball inside or away. He just needs to put it all together and we saw in this playoffs when he does how crazy good he can be.

Way to often at the plate and why his regular season numbers look pedestrian compared to other stars is chasing bad pitches. Or jamming himself on pitches he should be crushing. Once that light goes on we might be looking at multiple MVP's. We know its in there we just need to see it consistently. The fun thing about the Post Season is everything is small sample and this is the time to get s*** done. And he's doing it and then some.

[Omar]

13 minutes ago, Jonn said:

The older Vlad gets I think the scarier he gets.....

Bookmarking this until 2037 when I can pull a gotcha post.

[Olerud363.354]

3 hours ago, Terminator said:

A lot of people on this board owe Vlad an apology.

I predicted Vlad would get released by the Blue Jays but win multiple triple crowns with the Red Sox.  I think I predicted he'd he .350 54 140 or something for the Red Sox after getting released by the Blue Jays.  At the time he had a 0.2 WAR in August of 2023 or something.  There also seems to have been a time when he had a 60% ground ball rate after 100 PAs (in 2020 I think).  I learned all this from the 'Send Vlad to Indy Ball' thread which I did not bump because such a monstrosity should remain hidden from this new and better version of the message board. 

I think I always believed in Vlad but not the Shatkins high (a.k.a. low) performance team.  I apologize to Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays high (not low) performance team and any other employees of Rogers Communications that I may have insulted.  I believe the high (not low) performance team has been focused on getting the most out of Ernie Clement and Nate Lukes and their 3rd percentile exit velocities and have only recently moved on to getting the most out of Vlad and his 99th percentile exit velocities.  Based on what they did with Ernie Vlad will be getting many triple crowns and even sextuple crowns (runs, rbis, hrs, avg, obp, and slg). 

Sorry to all I insulted, and also sorry to Vlad that I implied you would get released, but even when I said you would get released I also said you'd get a triple crown the next year for Boston. 

[G-Snarls]

39 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

 

Vlad might be ... a bit better through age 26?  I think comparison with Cabrera is similar.  And they all crush Ortiz through age 26 of course because he was a mediocre platoon player for the Twins. 

The 30 point drop in batting average between 1996 and 2025 makes stat-lines look so much different.   

 

I always thought Manny was a hopeful good comp for Vladdy but the last two seasons worried me. Now fingers crossed he is back on track. 

Neither Manny or Vladdy had/have the insane power of Bonds/Canseco/Judge/Ohtani and that's fine. 

But both have amazing K/BB, contact skills and hard hit rates. 

I still think Vladdy has some of his best years ahead of him. 

[Terminator]

12 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I predicted Vlad would get released by the Blue Jays but win multiple triple crowns with the Red Sox.  I think I predicted he'd he .350 54 140 or something for the Red Sox after getting released by the Blue Jays.  At the time he had a 0.2 WAR in August of 2023 or something.  There also seems to have been a time when he had a 60% ground ball rate after 100 PAs (in 2020 I think).  I learned all this from the 'Send Vlad to Indy Ball' thread which I did not bump because such a monstrosity should remain hidden from this new and better version of the message board. 

I think I always believed in Vlad but not the Shatkins high (a.k.a. low) performance team.  I apologize to Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays high (not low) performance team and any other employees of Rogers Communications that I may have insulted.  I believe the high (not low) performance team has been focused on getting the most out of Ernie Clement and Nate Lukes and their 3rd percentile exit velocities and have only recently moved on to getting the most out of Vlad and his 99th percentile exit velocities.  Based on what they did with Ernie Vlad will be getting many triple crowns and even sextuple crowns (runs, rbis, hrs, avg, obp, and slg). 

Sorry to all I insulted, and also sorry to Vlad that I implied you would get released, but even when I said you would get released I also said you'd get a triple crown the next year for Boston. 

Thank you for doing the right thing, sir.

Anybody else want to step up?

[Laika]

I have nothing to apologize for

Anything bad I ever said about Vlad was ironic/trolling/baiting 

[max silver]

35 minutes ago, Jonn said:

The older Vlad gets I think the scarier he gets because once he fully understands his ability to control the strikezone and attack the pitches he needs to attack that is when he truly becomes elite. We know he can hit the ball inside or away. He just needs to put it all together and we saw in this playoffs when he does how crazy good he can be.

Way to often at the plate and why his regular season numbers look pedestrian compared to other stars is chasing bad pitches. Or jamming himself on pitches he should be crushing. Once that light goes on we might be looking at multiple MVP's. We know its in there we just need to see it consistently. The fun thing about the Post Season is everything is small sample and this is the time to get s*** done. And he's doing it and then some.

I think this is already underway as Vlad chased a career best 21% of pitches out of the strike zone this season. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

I was hard on Vlad for sure, all I could see was a guy flopping around like a beached whale at 2nd base after being picked off as the trail runner to end the Jays season.

This version of playoff Vladdy I like much better, and hopefully he is here to stay.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

Contrition is definitely required here.  I called the Vlad haters an embarrassment near the end of the season.

Who's going to man up and come clean?

Wouldn't proclaim Vlad as a HoF type of bat only after 4 Postseason games. 

Wouldn't call myself a Vlad hater so don't really have to apologize for anything. He has all the talent in the world to be one of the best offensive players in the game, and I've stated that many times. Defensively he has been great as well and has made some big defensive plays this Postseason. 

Do I think he's worth $500M? I don't think he is, but I understand the Jays had to keep him and regardless couldn't care about his contract moving forward if he helps the Jays win a World Series during his tenure here. I did make a comment that he had a Lyle Overbay type of season power wise this season and yeah that's disappointing for someone who is making $500M. 

Regardless, Vladdy has had a historic Postseason so far and hope he continues to play like this for the rest of October and into next season. 

[Brownie19]

10 hours ago, Terminator said:

A lot of people on this board owe Vlad an apology.

Normally, I'd suggest you all get together and combine on a big Swiss Chalet gift card for him but:

1. he can afford to eat there on his own accord, and
2. we don't need him eating that many calories anyway.

I think a normal apology works in this situation so all of you haters and losers (of which there are many) need to start fessing up.

Who's going to start?

I owe Vlad an apology.  I've just never been a big fan of him - it's felt like all to often that he's wasting his incredible talents.  He drives me nuts.

That said, I was always optimistic that would improve with maturity and I was in favor of signing him to the $500M deal.  Despite his inconsistencies, he was just too important to the franchise and still had the ability to become a consistent Top 5 bat in MLB.  

It is so awesome to see him performing in the playoffs this year.  I hope this is a sign of things to come.

[max silver]

9 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I owe Vlad an apology.  I've just never been a big fan of him - it's felt like all to often that he's wasting his incredible talents.  He drives me nuts.

That said, I was always optimistic that would improve with maturity and I was in favor of signing him to the $500M deal.  Despite his inconsistencies, he was just too important to the franchise and still had the ability to become a consistent Top 5 bat in MLB.  

It is so awesome to see him performing in the playoffs this year.  I hope this is a sign of things to come.

I'll never be a huge fan of the deal but it's simply because it's too damn long for a bad body first base type. Hopefully Vlad can break the mold a bit and ages more like an Ortiz type vs Pujols/Cabrera etc. On an AAV basis I have zero issues as Vlad is paid like a typical superstar player but in the back half of the deal if he's struggling to break replacement level it's going to be a bit of an anchor around the franchise's neck.

[Big_Walleye]

21 hours ago, Terminator said:

A lot of people on this board owe Vlad an apology.

Normally, I'd suggest you all get together and combine on a big Swiss Chalet gift card for him but:

1. he can afford to eat there on his own accord, and
2. we don't need him eating that many calories anyway.

I think a normal apology works in this situation so all of you haters and losers (of which there are many) need to start fessing up.

Who's going to start?

Hate is a strong word.  The only time I've felt that way about Vlad was when he stood at the mic right before spring training this year.  The rest of the time it's been the same frustration that most fans have felt with him.  The second ½ of September this year especially. 

The fact that he looked dominant in the ALDS and helped KO the Yankees has eased everyone's concerns.  Let's hope that something has clicked and he's unlocked that potential that we all knew was in there.  

I live and die with this team for 6 months every year (hopefully 7 months this year).  Watching Vlad destroy that GS and fling the bat was right up there with Joe Carter's epic homer just because it was the Yankees.  But the job isn't done.  Seattle is a good team with a pretty tough pitching staff.  If an apology will help him stay locked in for 8 more wins sign me up.

Sorry Vlad!  Sorry I doubted you!  Now get back to work!😆

BTW. I "hate" Swiss Chalet.  I'd rather get a batters box any time.

[Terminator]

53 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

BTW. I "hate" Swiss Chalet.  I'd rather get a batters box any time.

Reported

[Big_Walleye]

47 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Reported

To the Poultry Police?  Did I hit a fowl ball?😄

[SeranthonySantander]

The Yankees were our World Series 

 

im happy if we even take 1 in the ALCS

 

i don’t expect Vlad to do anything this series but I would be happy if he did.  He has earned that contract and he can relax now, nobody is expecting anything out of him vs a real team ie mariners 

[max silver]

6 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

The Yankees were our World Series 

 

im happy if we even take 1 in the ALCS

 

i don’t expect Vlad to do anything this series but I would be happy if he did.  He has earned that contract and he can relax now, nobody is expecting anything out of him vs a real team ie mariners 

[Jonn]

33 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

The Yankees were our World Series 

 

im happy if we even take 1 in the ALCS

 

i don’t expect Vlad to do anything this series but I would be happy if he did.  He has earned that contract and he can relax now, nobody is expecting anything out of him vs a real team ie mariners 

No our World Series is the World Series lol

I don't know why Yankees fans started some weird narrative that beating them was all we cared about lol. We aren't The Red Sox.

[SeranthonySantander]

3 minutes ago, Jonn said:

No our World Series is the World Series lol

I don't know why Yankees fans started some weird narrative that beating them was all we cared about lol. We aren't The Red Sox.

yea but losing to the mariners despite being 1 round further still won’t feel as bad as if we lost to the Yankees after the drama this year with narratives etc 

Jays beating the Yankees was celebrated like a World Series for Red Sox fans 

[Omar]

50 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

The Yankees were our World Series 

im happy if we even take 1 in the ALCS

i don’t expect Vlad to do anything this series but I would be happy if he did.  He has earned that contract and he can relax now, nobody is expecting anything out of him vs a real team ie mariners