Come on Vlad!!!

[Laika]

Reds fans use to whine about Joey Votto all the time because he didn't get enough HRs and RBIs

The Vlad disdain is similar 

I get it, you see him ground into a double play on the first pitch a few times in clutch situations and it feels like he is a choke artist. I get why people feel the way they feel. It's wrong but I get it. 

Most of this is because there is a small disagreement between what Vlad actually is and what people feel like he is or should be. You see him, as a first basemen with his body and tools, and think this is going to be a huge David Ortiz kind of masher. But offensively his comps are mostly good hitting infielders like Machado, Seager, Ketel Marte. 

[BatFlip]

17 minutes ago, Laika said:

Reds fans use to whine about Joey Votto all the time because he didn't get enough HRs and RBIs

The Vlad disdain is similar 

I get it, you see him ground into a double play on the first pitch a few times in clutch situations and it feels like he is a choke artist. I get why people feel the way they feel. It's wrong but I get it. 

Most of this is because there is a small disagreement between what Vlad actually is and what people feel like he is or should be. You see him, as a first basemen with his body and tools, and think this is going to be a huge David Ortiz kind of masher. But offensively his comps are mostly good hitting infielders like Machado, Seager, Ketel Marte. 

This is right on the money.

Vlad's 48 home run season teased fans and created expectations contrary to his actual expected profile.  People started expecting a Big Papi type masher, when the scouting profile on him was clear from the get-go that he was not a power first hitter, but a kid with an elite hit tool and plate discipline that smoked the ball.   

I even recall reading a top scout saying this kid will be a superstar, but not a 40-50HR guy, but a +.300 BA; .400ops; 30 HR type hitter.  That is very close to what he currently is.   

I agree with everyone that this year is a bit of a disappointment, but he also got pretty damn hot during the second half of the season and drove the team's offensive engine for good stretches.  Without the massive contract (I was a loud voice calling it an overpay!), it seems a bit crazy to say .292/.381/.467 is a disappointment.  But feels that way because his yearly potential is probably a .310/.400/.525 type hitter over a healthy full season.  That's the difference between a 4-5 WAR season and a 6-7 WAR type season.  Some years he'll exceed that, some years he'll underperform that.

He can be insanely frustrating to watch during cold stretches, but the guy is going to be a consistent driver of offense for the team for years.

 

[Olerud363.354]

36 minutes ago, Laika said:

 

Most of this is because there is a small disagreement between what Vlad actually is and what people feel like he is or should be. You see him, as a first basemen with his body and tools, and think this is going to be a huge David Ortiz kind of masher. But offensively his comps are mostly good hitting infielders like Machado, Seager, Ketel Marte. 

His comps are also Eddie Murray, Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper (3 of the top 6 on bbref).  

Harper also had a crazy season at 22 but a lot of seasons with a sub .500 slugging too.  

Eugene Saurez is not a great all around hitter but a power hitter and went 49 homers in 2019, down to 22 (in 162 games) in 2023, but back up to 49 this year.  

Vlad didn't hardly walk or homer the last 3 weeks.  Maybe his goal next year should be 100/120.  100 walks 120 ks.  Weird goal to k-more but I think he is the best hitter with below 100ks.  The other really good hitters are 150 ks (Judge, Ohtani, even Freeman ks more, Schwarber). 

[Olerud363.354]

On 9/28/2025 at 11:16 AM, Jays24 said:

The problem with Vlad is that he's just so stupid.  He has talent coming out of his ass but the IQ in knowing how to unlock your potential is severely lacking. 

Hard to believe he is really that stupid.  On the old board I was harder on him than anyone but it mostly had to do with his ground ball tendencies and the risk that they would totally derail his career (like Jayson Heyward who through age 21 was as good as Vlad with dynamite minor league numbers as a teenager).  

Seems like he picks up a lot of details.  Like if someone has a milestone like Kirk's first stolen base he picks up on that stuff right away.  Or I remember the time he let a popup drop for a double play... 

Probably tough for the coaching staff.   If you try and unlock more power do you risk messing up other ways?  I half jokingly said he should try and strikout more....  Did Aaron Judge have the highest strike-out rate ever for a batting title winner this year?   What's the deal with these high k very productive guys.  Low swing rate and always A swing?  Like if they guess wrong they swing and miss and don't adjust and get weak contact like Vlad seems to sometimes....

[GoBlue41]

11 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Hard to believe he is really that stupid.  On the old board I was harder on him than anyone but it mostly had to do with his ground ball tendencies and the risk that they would totally derail his career (like Jayson Heyward who through age 21 was as good as Vlad with dynamite minor league numbers as a teenager).  

Seems like he picks up a lot of details.  Like if someone has a milestone like Kirk's first stolen base he picks up on that stuff right away.  Or I remember the time he let a popup drop for a double play... 

Probably tough for the coaching staff.   If you try and unlock more power do you risk messing up other ways?  I half jokingly said he should try and strikout more....  Did Aaron Judge have the highest strike-out rate ever for a batting title winner this year?   What's the deal with these high k very productive guys.  Low swing rate and always A swing?  Like if they guess wrong they swing and miss and don't adjust and get weak contact like Vlad seems to sometimes....

Yeah, he seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders defensively and makes some pretty smart decisions. That throw from first to third a few weeks ago and the throw home yesterday are just a couple of examples. 

[Brownie19]

On 9/25/2025 at 12:38 PM, Big_Walleye said:

Stats are for losers, isn't that how the saying goes?

 

On 9/28/2025 at 10:55 AM, Big_Walleye said:

Call it whining if you want.  Go right ahead and quote stats and numbers.  I trust what my eyes tell me and right now they're telling me he's terrible.  Stats are for losers.

Why do you keep saying this? 

 

[L54]

The thing about good hitters is they can break their slump and get hot out of nowhere. Look at Kirk for example 

The Jays will go as far as Vlad takes them. Him and Hoffman are the X factors for me 

[Jays24]

11 hours ago, max silver said:

LMAO you of all people are here insulting somebody else's IQ. That's almost too good to be true. And I actually think that Vlad is improving his decision making on the field in this season in particular and making more heads up plays within the games. He's taken a big step forward defensively in terms of deciding to throw home, starting double plays etc., and I was impressed in a recent game when he managed to dive out of the way to avoid an incoming tag at first place on a throw that went wide.

Funny how you think youre smarter than most people because you love to live and die off advanced metrics.  There were a bunch of idiots who wanted to DFA him because he wasnt worth his 20M salary and I was laughing at the stupidity of that notion.  

And yes, I have noticed Vlad get a lot sharper/smarter on a lot of decisions this year.  Now let's hope he starts applying those skills to figure out why his hitting tools arent being maximized.  Hes clearly not making the right adjustments at the plate. 

[Jays24]

1 minute ago, L54 said:

The thing about good hitters is they can break their slump and get hot out of nowhere. Look at Kirk for example 

The Jays will go as far as Vlad takes them. Him and Hoffman are the X factors for me 

I agree about Vlad but Hoffman has zero track record of being a great closer.  I have no clue how someone with that is allowed to crap the bed all year and still have his job.  I have very little faith he will perform his role well.  

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Hard to believe he is really that stupid.  On the old board I was harder on him than anyone but it mostly had to do with his ground ball tendencies and the risk that they would totally derail his career (like Jayson Heyward who through age 21 was as good as Vlad with dynamite minor league numbers as a teenager).  

Seems like he picks up a lot of details.  Like if someone has a milestone like Kirk's first stolen base he picks up on that stuff right away.  Or I remember the time he let a popup drop for a double play... 

Probably tough for the coaching staff.   If you try and unlock more power do you risk messing up other ways?  I half jokingly said he should try and strikout more....  Did Aaron Judge have the highest strike-out rate ever for a batting title winner this year?   What's the deal with these high k very productive guys.  Low swing rate and always A swing?  Like if they guess wrong they swing and miss and don't adjust and get weak contact like Vlad seems to sometimes....

I don't think he is stupid. 

He has made some bad baserunning decisions in his career, but offensively the problem most of the time is almost just the curse of having hand eye coordination that is too good. 

He will make a bad swing decision and swing at a pitch six inches inside, and groundout. Aaron Judge would just whiff instead and get another chance to homer. Or he will get fooled on the pitch type and swing at a changeup but just through raw talent he will be able to make contact... on the ground. 

So yeah he needs to strikeout more. It's a weird thing to tell somebody. He could take a lesson from 2025 Springer and come into 2026 focusing on getting his A swing off more often, with aggression. 

[Laika]

24 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

I agree about Vlad but Hoffman has zero track record of being a great closer.  I have no clue how someone with that is allowed to crap the bed all year and still have his job.  I have very little faith he will perform his role well.  

There is always the chance that a reliever just throws 2 mph harper in October and is that much better for it. 

Hoffman's fastball really seemed pedestrian towards the end of the year. What if the adrenaline has him throwing 98 again?

Dunno if this is likely to be honest from the velo graph he might actually be hurt...

[Jays24]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

There is always the chance that a reliever just throws 2 mph harper in October and is that much better for it. 

Hoffman's fastball really seemed pedestrian towards the end of the year. What if the adrenaline has him throwing 98 again?

Dunno if this is likely to be honest from the velo graph he might actually be hurt...

So you'd be willing to risk your entire season and ignore the 162 game sample size for a chance that Hoffman becomes something he's never shown in his MLB career by becoming a shutdown closer?

The reasons dont matter at this stage, its just about performance.  Play your best in the position theyre most likely to succeed in. 

[Laika]

13 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

So you'd be willing to risk your entire season and ignore the 162 game sample size for a chance that Hoffman becomes something he's never shown in his MLB career by becoming a shutdown closer?

The reasons dont matter at this stage, its just about performance.  Play your best in the position theyre most likely to succeed in. 

Okay who is their best projected reliever? 

Keep in mind that Hoffman's projections will carry the weight of his MLB dominance from before. Most other Blue Jays relievers are pop-up guys in 2025. 

[Orgfiller]

14 minutes ago, Laika said:

Okay who is their best projected reliever? 

Keep in mind that Hoffman's projections will carry the weight of his MLB dominance from before. Most other Blue Jays relievers are pop-up guys in 2025. 

I'd say Varland since the stuff is outrageous, but with the likely possibility that he headlines an opener game I don't know if that changes his usage in a playoff series. Maybe it doesn't though?

Dominguez is a little like Hoffman, except he trades giving up bombs for the likelihood of way more walks. He's pretty unhittable though, the stuff is nuts here too. I think the bullpen hierarchy should definitely come down to who has the best stuff right now. Varland + Seranthony are up there, Little too, with Fluharty and Fisher being firemen ready to be used at any point in the game.

I'm as big of a believer in projections as anyone, but the projections are a different story than like June when Hoffman was still throwing 97 with regularity and getting shelled, than this version who throws 94 more often than he throws 96+, with s***** command of all pitches to boot.

[Stangstag]

3 hours ago, Jays24 said:

I agree about Vlad but Hoffman has zero track record of being a great closer.  I have no clue how someone with that is allowed to crap the bed all year and still have his job.  I have very little faith he will perform his role well.  

He did pitch like an elite closer in the month of April, so he has the capacity. Im not exactly holding my breath because that was a long while ago. But its a possibility he returns to that for a couple weeks which is all we'd need.

[Jays24]

14 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

He did pitch like an elite closer in the month of April, so he has the capacity. Im not exactly holding my breath because that was a long while ago. But its a possibility he returns to that for a couple weeks which is all we'd need.

He was elite but doesnt that make it more shocking why his overall numbers look the way they do?  It tells you how crappy he is when he's off.  Hes pretty much one of the worst closers in the game.  

[max silver]

 

3 hours ago, Jays24 said:

I agree about Vlad but Hoffman has zero track record of being a great closer.  I have no clue how someone with that is allowed to crap the bed all year and still have his job.  I have very little faith he will perform his role well.  

Hoffman didn't crap the bed all year. If that were remotely true he would have been removed from the closer role a long time ago. I think the fact that Hoffman had a series of truly awful outings in early May has created a picture of him being far worse than he has been in reality. There have been times when he clearly doesn't have it, and his manager has left him in games for far too long and allowed him to surrender a bushel full of runs. The worst 5 outings saw him surrender 18 ER in only 2/1/3 innings which occurred in a really bad week in May and another really bad week in late August. The rest of the season saw him allow a 2.03 ERA over the remaining 65 2/3 innings over 5.5 months of play so I believe in actuality he's generally been a very solid closer, albeit one who allows too many home runs for comfort and is prone to spectacular meltdowns at times when he doesn't have it.

Hoffman was MLB's best reliever for the month of Apri, had a really tough month of May with the bulk of the runs being allowed in 3 disastrous outings, then he was very solid for 3 months from June to the end of August where he had a tough week, and he's barely allowed a thing in September albeit being of the smoke and mirrors variety due to his stuff and command faltering at times. I think he should be fine in a closer role but the club should monitor his work load a bit to avoid the excessive 4 games in 5 stretches that have seen him suffer from reduced velocity and stuff afterwards. I believe a key is to get another arm up far sooner on days when it's obvious that he's struggling with command instead of allowing the tying or go ahead runs to score.

[max silver]

7 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

He was elite but doesnt that make it more shocking why his overall numbers look the way they do?  It tells you how crappy he is when he's off.  Hes pretty much one of the worst closers in the game.  

I have a far more detailed reply in this thread but the numbers look the way they do due to 5 shockingly bad outings that occurred in two separate really bad weeks. He's been very good the rest of the way.

[Jays24]

Just now, max silver said:

I have a far more detailed reply in this thread but the numbers look the way they do due to 5 shockingly bad outings that occurred in two separate really bad weeks. He's been very good the rest of the way.

So let's remove his worst appearances and then he would become average.  Only if life worked that way... 

As a closer, you get a long leash to either close or blow the game.  The reason his numbers are what they are is because the Jays have stuck with him in games when he was clearly off. 

His performances clearly tell you that hes a really good 7th/8th inning guy who you take out when hes not on.  You know, the role hes had during the best years of his career.

[max silver]

9 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

So let's remove his worst appearances and then he would become average.  Only if life worked that way... 

As a closer, you get a long leash to either close or blow the game.  The reason his numbers are what they are is because the Jays have stuck with him in games when he was clearly off. 

His performances clearly tell you that hes a really good 7th/8th inning guy who you take out when hes not on.  You know, the role hes had during the best years of his career.

Your entire premise is that Hoffman has been terrible all season long and that's not remotely true. 

[Laika]

26 minutes ago, max silver said:

 

Hoffman didn't crap the bed all year. If that were remotely true he would have been removed from the closer role a long time ago. I think the fact that Hoffman had a series of truly awful outings in early May has created a picture of him being far worse than he has been in reality. There have been times when he clearly doesn't have it, and his manager has left him in games for far too long and allowed him to surrender a bushel full of runs. The worst 5 outings saw him surrender 18 ER in only 2/1/3 innings which occurred in a really bad week in May and another really bad week in late August. The rest of the season saw him allow a 2.03 ERA over the remaining 65 2/3 innings over 5.5 months of play so I believe in actuality he's generally been a very solid closer, albeit one who allows too many home runs for comfort and is prone to spectacular meltdowns at times when he doesn't have it.

Hoffman was MLB's best reliever for the month of Apri, had a really tough month of May with the bulk of the runs being allowed in 3 disastrous outings, then he was very solid for 3 months from June to the end of August where he had a tough week, and he's barely allowed a thing in September albeit being of the smoke and mirrors variety due to his stuff and command faltering at times. I think he should be fine in a closer role but the club should monitor his work load a bit to avoid the excessive 4 games in 5 stretches that have seen him suffer from reduced velocity and stuff afterwards. I believe a key is to get another arm up far sooner on days when it's obvious that he's struggling with command instead of allowing the tying or go ahead runs to score.

bridge too far 

5 shockingly bad outings is a lot for a guy 

and he was awful and lucky for all of September 

May 8.64 FIP
August 7.64 FIP 5.23 xFIP
September 5.10 FIP 5.77 xFIP

In May you could argue he just got unlucky on homers but then for the last two months he was f***ing brutal and had horrendous K-BB ratio and declining stuff. Honestly quite scary, I think he might have broken. 

[Brownie19]

Yeah - I don't know what they do with Hoffman in the playoffs.  I don't think he's someone you can rely on.

The HRs are the killer.  I'd be curious to see what their predictive modelling suggests in that regard.  

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

bridge too far 

5 shockingly bad outings is a lot for a guy 

and he was awful and lucky for all of September 

May 8.64 FIP
August 7.64 FIP 5.23 xFIP
September 5.10 FIP 5.77 xFIP

In May you could argue he just got unlucky on homers but then for the last two months he was f***ing brutal and had horrendous K-BB ratio and declining stuff. Honestly quite scary, I think he might have broken. 

The August numbers are yet again entirely due to a bad week. I'm not trying to argue that this isn't a massive potential issue for the post season as a bad week for a closer can end the team's season.

Hoffman at least managed to avoid opposition barrels in September on the way to a 2.84 xERA largely on the strength of an 85.6 MPH average exit velocity. The FIP numbers are still ugly but this is due to an excessive walk rate vs the barrage of home runs from earlier in the season. It's highly debatable how repeatable a skill inducing the soft contact will be based on the declining velocity of stuff and command but at the very least the homer problem was kept at bay.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Yeah - I don't know what they do with Hoffman in the playoffs.  I don't think he's someone you can rely on.

The HRs are the killer.  I'd be curious to see what their predictive modelling suggests in that regard.  

I'd like to see more of a matchup based closer by committee setup employed, but given how Schneider tends to completely empty the pen on the way to the closer I don't know how likely this is to happen unless Hoffman is removed from the primary closing spot. I do eventually expect a far tighter leash on Hoffman given the stakes of the post season, but even this may not occur before he's allowed several meltdowns along the way.

[M.E.]

On 9/26/2025 at 10:42 AM, polar bear said:

Faux superstar.

Brian Kenny just called him the 3rd best 1B in the league,   That guy knows more than you or me.

[Jays24]

7 hours ago, max silver said:

Your entire premise is that Hoffman has been terrible all season long and that's not remotely true. 

No, my premise is that his season has been up and down but down enough to be considered one of the worst closers in baseball.  A guy who's throwing 94MPH who gave up record setting amount of HRs in the 9th doesnt instill confidence in me

[M.E.]

11 hours ago, Jays24 said:

So you'd be willing to risk your entire season and ignore the 162 game sample size for a chance that Hoffman becomes something he's never shown in his MLB career by becoming a shutdown closer?

The reasons dont matter at this stage, its just about performance.  Play your best in the position theyre most likely to succeed in. 

The organization appears to be willing to do so. 

[L54]

20 hours ago, Jays24 said:

I agree about Vlad but Hoffman has zero track record of being a great closer.  I have no clue how someone with that is allowed to crap the bed all year and still have his job.  I have very little faith he will perform his role well.  

That’s what makes him an X factor 

If he was David Bednar we wouldn’t be wondering what we’ll get from him 

I would tell the pen guys any of them could be used at any point. Last thing I would do is give every 9th inning to Hoff 

[polar bear]

11 hours ago, M.E. said:

Brian Kenny just called him the 3rd best 1B in the league,   That guy knows more than you or me.

Whatever, he’s still a faux superstar.

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, L54 said:

That’s what makes him an X factor 

If he was David Bednar we wouldn’t be wondering what we’ll get from him 

I would tell the pen guys any of them could be used at any point. Last thing I would do is give every 9th inning to Hoff 

Thats exactly how we needed to proceed all year but we didnt.  The only time Hoffman didnt get the 9th was when he was being overworked and needed rest.  I doubt they change all that in the playoffs when they had 162 games to do so.