Come on Vlad!!!

[L54]

12 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Thats exactly how we needed to proceed all year but we didnt.  The only time Hoffman didnt get the 9th was when he was being overworked and needed rest.  I doubt they change all that in the playoffs when they had 162 games to do so. 

If there ever is a time to do so it’s the playoffs, it’s like hitting reset. Easy to justify and less resistance because you’re doing whatever it takes to win 

He probably gets the first save chance but I doubt they’re married to him at this point

 

[Laika]

The team just never had viable alternatives for the closer role.

Yimi broke.
Nance and YRod don't really have the "STUFF" for it. 
Fluharty was never an option, lefty who throws 90. 
Little is not a good option, lefty who is too wild. 
Seranthony is the only one who could maybe slide in there with his Stuff but he's a walks machine. 
Varland was getting teed off on. He has the stuff for it but hasn't performed.
Fisher is a rookie with a hittable fastball. More of a sneaky/tricky guy to be honest. 

Hopefully in the playoffs they are more aggressive with matchups and stuff. Or yank Hoffman if he doesn't look sharp. Use the lefties and Fisher/Seranthony if matchups dictate and they are still in the pen. 

Good chance Little/Fisher/Seranthony get burned getting to the 9th inning though. So Hoffman is just the guy left. Not really a glorious thing.

[Governator]

38 minutes ago, Laika said:

The team just never had viable alternatives for the closer role.

Yimi broke.
Nance and YRod don't really have the "STUFF" for it. 
Fluharty was never an option, lefty who throws 90. 
Little is not a good option, lefty who is too wild. 
Seranthony is the only one who could maybe slide in there with his Stuff but he's a walks machine. 
Varland was getting teed off on. He has the stuff for it but hasn't performed.
Fisher is a rookie with a hittable fastball. More of a sneaky/tricky guy to be honest. 

Hopefully in the playoffs they are more aggressive with matchups and stuff. Or yank Hoffman if he doesn't look sharp. Use the lefties and Fisher/Seranthony if matchups dictate and they are still in the pen. 

Good chance Little/Fisher/Seranthony get burned getting to the 9th inning though. So Hoffman is just the guy left. Not really a glorious thing.

 

Man, having Yimi down the stretch would have been so nice.

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, L54 said:

If there ever is a time to do so it’s the playoffs, it’s like hitting reset. Easy to justify and less resistance because you’re doing whatever it takes to win 

He probably gets the first save chance but I doubt they’re married to him at this point

 

"The first save chance" could be the difference of us advancing or being eliminated.  Anyways, let's see how things unfold.  

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

"The first save chance" could be the difference of us advancing or being eliminated.  Anyways, let's see how things unfold.  

I'm using Seranthony or Varland myself.  Both were really good in September.

[Jays24]

9 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm using Seranthony or Varland myself.  Both were really good in September.

Ya, I was hoping Varland could be that guy but sucks he had that blip.  He probably would have been that guy if not for that.  Seranthony is the guy to pick given his stuff/track record.  

[Omar]

The Jays should bring Hoff in for the 8th in a hold situation just to test the waters.  Give Seranthony a go.  Risky but Hoffman is just too volatile. 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm using Seranthony or Varland myself.  Both were really good in September.

ERA    IP     HR     BB   SO   WHIP

2.16     8.1     1         3     10    0.960

0.84   10.2   1         7     8     1.125

3.86    11.2    1        4      14   1.200 

 

Which one are you picking?

[Brownie19]

17 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

ERA    IP     HR     BB   SO   WHIP

2.16     8.1     1         3     10    0.960

0.84   10.2   1         7     8     1.125

3.86    11.2    1        4      14   1.200 

 

Which one are you picking?

#1 or #3 without any hesitation

[Orgfiller]

54 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

ERA    IP     HR     BB   SO   WHIP

2.16     8.1     1         3     10    0.960

0.84   10.2   1         7     8     1.125

3.86    11.2    1        4      14   1.200 

 

Which one are you picking?

Is #2 Hoffman? That K/BB rate lol

[mphenhef]

2 is Hoffman in Sep.

1 is Seranthony, 3 is Varland.

[Olerud363.354]

A lot of the frustration with Vlad was the 80 hit tool label given to him by Baseball America.  I think it may have been the first time they gave anyone that rating for hit tool.   Correct me if I am wrong but "80" tools are really rare.  80 hit tool, combined with minor league numbers, combined with 4 months of 'prime Judge/Pujols" level in 2021 gave fans a mental image of what Vlad could be and led to frustrations when he is not that.  

Last 2 games have been what I picture 80 hit tool being.  110 mph 25 degree no doubt homeruns, mixed in with also being productive when not hitting the ball as hard because launch angle was good.   Like 80 hit tool is both elite exit velocity and also adjusting and using elite hand eye to hit a soft line drive when fooled a bit, instead of rolling over and grounding out.  

So he has 80 hit tool but so far maybe needs to be viewed like any other 80 tool.  Like a guy could have 80 speed but not always be able to take advantage of it in a game.  Awesome to see Vlad be 80 hit tool Vlad for 2 playoff games. 

[Big_Walleye]

Yessss!!!  He's coming on!!

Watching that salami last night couldn't have been more satisfying.  It looks like he's figured out how to channel the pressure in the right direction.  The deep breath he took right before destroying that baseball was cool.

Keep it up!!  There's a long way to go. 

[Big_Walleye]

10 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

A lot of the frustration with Vlad was the 80 hit tool label given to him by Baseball America.  I think it may have been the first time they gave anyone that rating for hit tool.   Correct me if I am wrong but "80" tools are really rare.  80 hit tool, combined with minor league numbers, combined with 4 months of 'prime Judge/Pujols" level in 2021 gave fans a mental image of what Vlad could be and led to frustrations when he is not that.  

Last 2 games have been what I picture 80 hit tool being.  110 mph 25 degree no doubt homeruns, mixed in with also being productive when not hitting the ball as hard because launch angle was good.   Like 80 hit tool is both elite exit velocity and also adjusting and using elite hand eye to hit a soft line drive when fooled a bit, instead of rolling over and grounding out.  

So he has 80 hit tool but so far maybe needs to be viewed like any other 80 tool.  Like a guy could have 80 speed but not always be able to take advantage of it in a game.  Awesome to see Vlad be 80 hit tool Vlad for 2 playoff games. 

He's looked great for 2 games for sure.  He said he was working on things during the off days.  Whatever he did is working.  I wonder if he spent some time with the mental performance coach because it sure looked like he shook off the pressure somehow.

[Pendleton]

46 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

A lot of the frustration with Vlad was the 80 hit tool label given to him by Baseball America.  I think it may have been the first time they gave anyone that rating for hit tool.   Correct me if I am wrong but "80" tools are really rare.  80 hit tool, combined with minor league numbers, combined with 4 months of 'prime Judge/Pujols" level in 2021 gave fans a mental image of what Vlad could be and led to frustrations when he is not that.  

Last 2 games have been what I picture 80 hit tool being.  110 mph 25 degree no doubt homeruns, mixed in with also being productive when not hitting the ball as hard because launch angle was good.   Like 80 hit tool is both elite exit velocity and also adjusting and using elite hand eye to hit a soft line drive when fooled a bit, instead of rolling over and grounding out.  

So he has 80 hit tool but so far maybe needs to be viewed like any other 80 tool.  Like a guy could have 80 speed but not always be able to take advantage of it in a game.  Awesome to see Vlad be 80 hit tool Vlad for 2 playoff games. 

 

His savant profile is lit up about as bright red as you're going to see. The only exception being launch angle sweet spot %, which is probably the only thing that separates him from the guys that put up the truly gaudy HR totals. But in terms of being a pure hitter, he really has lived up to the 80 grade, he's among the upmost elite in terms of constantly driving the ball in play with authority.

 

I went there just now to see the statcast numbers on that bizarre infield single last night, but he drove it into the ground at such a severe angle (-71° travelling just 1 foot) that the exit velocity didn't register. 

[Olerud363.354]

6 minutes ago, Pendleton said:

But in terms of being a pure hitter, he really has lived up to the 80 grade, he's among the upmost elite in terms of constantly driving the ball in play with authority.

That's another one of the disconnects that frustrates fans.   Good year this year, but the kind of year that you'd expect out of Lyle Overbay or Yandy Diaz.  80 hit tool makes you picture Pujols or Frank Thomas in his prime.  Has his overall performance really lived up to 80 tool?  Kind of semantics but who else has gotten the 80 hit tool?  Seems like Vlad is performing more at a 70 hit tool level.  

He is elite in terms of velocity, but is that really 80 hit tool if the launch angle sweet spot isn't there?   The launch angle sweet spot doesn't only effect the hard contact, but if launch angle is good soft contact will be more productive.  Like Saturday he had a 101 mph homerun, and a couple of soft contact hits because launch angle was good on all.  

Like when Frank Thomas, or Cabrera or Manny Ramirez were putting up really big years was it all hard contact ?  Or was some of the soft contact productive too?  Or Judge this year?  Winning a batting title King as much as he does did he also have a good sweet spot percentage on his soft contact?  

As just a fan watching a couple games this weekend Vlad gave the "And that's why he's such a great hitter,  he was fooled a bit on that pitch but dunked it into center field' vibe, not the 'hit hard but right at third and they turn the double play" vibe. 

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

That's another one of the disconnects that frustrates fans.   Good year this year, but the kind of year that you'd expect out of Lyle Overbay or Yandy Diaz.  80 hit tool makes you picture Pujols or Frank Thomas in his prime.  Has his overall performance really lived up to 80 tool?  Kind of semantics but who else has gotten the 80 hit tool?  Seems like Vlad is performing more at a 70 hit tool level.  

He is elite in terms of velocity, but is that really 80 hit tool if the launch angle sweet spot isn't there?   The launch angle sweet spot doesn't only effect the hard contact, but if launch angle is good soft contact will be more productive.  Like Saturday he had a 101 mph homerun, and a couple of soft contact hits because launch angle was good on all.  

Like when Frank Thomas, or Cabrera or Manny Ramirez were putting up really big years was it all hard contact ?  Or was some of the soft contact productive too?  Or Judge this year?  Winning a batting title King as much as he does did he also have a good sweet spot percentage on his soft contact?  

As just a fan watching a couple games this weekend Vlad gave the "And that's why he's such a great hitter,  he was fooled a bit on that pitch but dunked it into center field' vibe, not the 'hit hard but right at third and they turn the double play" vibe. 

 

Does an 80 hit tool necessarily need to come along with an optimal launch angle/sweet spot contact? I thought that the hit tool rating was largely predicated on the repeatable ability to produce base hits and to subsequently record high batting averages year in and year out. 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Does an 80 hit tool necessarily need to come along with an optimal launch angle/sweet spot contact? I thought that the hit tool rating was largely predicated on the repeatable ability to produce base hits and to subsequently record high batting averages year in and year out. 

You are correct, also, I really hate these useless asinine threads.

[Orgfiller]

3 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

That's another one of the disconnects that frustrates fans.   Good year this year, but the kind of year that you'd expect out of Lyle Overbay or Yandy Diaz.  80 hit tool makes you picture Pujols or Frank Thomas in his prime.  Has his overall performance really lived up to 80 tool?  Kind of semantics but who else has gotten the 80 hit tool?  Seems like Vlad is performing more at a 70 hit tool level.  

He is elite in terms of velocity, but is that really 80 hit tool if the launch angle sweet spot isn't there?   The launch angle sweet spot doesn't only effect the hard contact, but if launch angle is good soft contact will be more productive.  Like Saturday he had a 101 mph homerun, and a couple of soft contact hits because launch angle was good on all.  

Like when Frank Thomas, or Cabrera or Manny Ramirez were putting up really big years was it all hard contact ?  Or was some of the soft contact productive too?  Or Judge this year?  Winning a batting title King as much as he does did he also have a good sweet spot percentage on his soft contact?  

As just a fan watching a couple games this weekend Vlad gave the "And that's why he's such a great hitter,  he was fooled a bit on that pitch but dunked it into center field' vibe, not the 'hit hard but right at third and they turn the double play" vibe. 

 

Some people might argue that Luis Arraez has an 80 grade hit tool. Hell, fangraphs gave Willians Astudillo an 80 grade hit tool, which IMO was absurd, mostly because he just had a knack for putting bat to ball and never striking out. I do think quality of contact has to come into play, you can't just be an 80 grade hit tool guy if all you do is hit soft grounders and bloops all over the place.

Vlad objectively combines both an elite amount of contact with hard hit balls, with a pretty healthy spray chart that makes him difficult to shift in any particular way. His issue, if you want to call it that, is he's probably a 75-80 raw power guy with "only" 55/60 game power. The Miguel Cabrera, Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas examples provided more like 70-75 game power, with guys like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Barry Bonds, peak steroids Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa providing that 80 grade version, with varying levels of hit tool output.

[Olerud363.354]

18 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Some people might argue that Luis Arraez has an 80 grade hit tool. Hell, fangraphs gave Willians Astudillo an 80 grade hit tool, which IMO was absurd, mostly because he just had a knack for putting bat to ball and never striking out.

I think it would be fair to give Arraez an 80 grade hit tool.  Multiple batting titles and active lifetime leader with near .320 career average.   Amazingly his other tools are so bad he is an average player even with 80 hit tool.  No walks, no power, no baserunning, no defense.  

Vlad is probably 65 hit tool, 60 power, 60 strike zone judgement in game, but 80/80/70 raw talent.   On a hall of fame track Dave Winfield/Eddie Murray/Freddie Freeman level, but not Frank Thomas Pujols level.  

However story is still to be written.   He has 2 elite seasons and if he ages well could put up a few more.  

[Orgfiller]

8 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I think it would be fair to give Arraez an 80 grade hit tool.  Multiple batting titles and active lifetime leader with near .320 career average.   Amazingly his other tools are so bad he is an average player even with 80 hit tool.  No walks, no power, no baserunning, no defense.  

Vlad is probably 65 hit tool, 60 power, 60 strike zone judgement in game, but 80/80/70 raw talent.   On a hall of fame track Dave Winfield/Eddie Murray/Freddie Freeman level, but not Frank Thomas Pujols level.  

However story is still to be written.   He has 2 elite seasons and if he ages well could put up a few more.  

Vlad xBA rankings since 2021:

2021 - 99th percentile

2022 - 95th percentile

2023 - 96th percentile

2024 - 100th percentile

2025 - 100th percentile

In all those years, his K rate was never lower than 81st percentile, and it's trended into the 90th+ percentile since 2023.

Vlad objectively has an 80 grade hit tool by the usual definition. 65 is an outrageous claim.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Vlad xBA rankings since 2021:

2021 - 99th percentile

2022 - 95th percentile

2023 - 96th percentile

2024 - 100th percentile

2025 - 100th percentile

In all those years, his K rate was never lower than 81st percentile, and it's trended into the 90th+ percentile since 2023.

Vlad objectively has an 80 grade hit tool by the usual definition. 65 is an outrageous claim.

rEkT!!!

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

Vlad xBA rankings since 2021:

2021 - 99th percentile

2022 - 95th percentile

2023 - 96th percentile

2024 - 100th percentile

2025 - 100th percentile

In all those years, his K rate was never lower than 81st percentile, and it's trended into the 90th+ percentile since 2023.

Vlad objectively has an 80 grade hit tool by the usual definition. 65 is an outrageous claim.

I'm curious to find out what adjustments Vlad has made at the plate during the bye period and if there are notable differences in metrics such as attack angle. It appeared to me as though he was tilting back a bit at the plate on his home run swings in a similar fashion to George Springer, but I haven't compared this to home run swings from earlier in the season. Vlad has cleaned up his plate discipline a lot this season and this bodes very well for his future chances of finally reaching the MVP caliber potential year in and year out if/when he unlocks his swing sufficiently to allow this to occur.

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Vlad objectively has an 80 grade hit tool by the usual definition. 65 is an outrageous claim.

His career average of .288 is 13th I think among active players.  80 is hall of fame. 70 is elite.  65 is star according to the definition of the scale I found.  If we consider 'hit tool' to mostly reflect average (with power, and plate discipline being different tools)

In terms of hit tool

80 Aaerez - .317 

70 (.290+) Altuve, Turner, Bichette, Judge, Betts, Diaz and a couple of others

65 (.285+) - Vlad, Seager, Yelich and a few others

Vlad also ranks 8th in batting average in franchise history.   Maybe 5th in the advanced era adjusted hitting ratings (after Baustista, Donaldson, McGriff and Delgado).  

Vlad has underperformed his expected stats.  There is an argument that he has only dramatically underperformed twice (which is true) but he has under-performed by a bit a lot of other years, never over-performed so career is down 15 points wRC+ between expected and actual hitting stats.   

Some of this is semantics but I wouldn't label a top 10-20 hitter active and 5-10 franchise performing at 80 hit tool level.   Like seems 80 should be for once in a generation.  Like top 3 active.   Best in 30 years for franchise.

Vlad is still on hall of fame track if he lasts through his contract.  And could up ranking much higher for "top 5" seasons then he will "overall". Like if he plays 20 years maybe he has 5 great seasons that are generational, but the overall isn't quite as good.    

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

Turn the question the other way.  Do you think Vlad could hit .320 .420 .600 over a 5 year span ?  He's only 26.  Judge, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez all went on 5 year runs like this at age 27 or later.  So if he did do this, which from minor stats, best 4 month runs, and scouting reports I think he could I would call that performance 80 hit tool.   I'd call his 2019-2025 performance 65 hit tool.  

So I don't mean to insult Vlad by calling him 65 hit tool, just saying he is a 65 right now, but still a potential 80 and could still go on that kind of run for a few years. 

[G-Snarls]

[thatoneguy]

Just wanted to point out how similar Vlad's grand slam in G2 was to Joey Bats' G5 bat flip vs. Texas. Bautista's was 97 running in on the hands from Dyson off the facade of the second deck of left field. Vlad's was 96 running in on the hands from Warren in almost the exact same location, into the first row of the second deck of left field.

[Olerud363.354]

On 10/9/2025 at 3:19 AM, thatoneguy said:

Just wanted to point out how similar Vlad's grand slam in G2 was to Joey Bats' G5 bat flip vs. Texas. Bautista's

Just incredible watching him over those four games.   At his best he can do what Bautista did but mix in opposite field singles on tough pitches.   He mixed elite exit velocity, a good eye, and good launch angle and hit to all fields.    Love that in game one he pulled a 365 fly ball which would have been a routine out if hit to center,  Then also hit several opposite field singles. 

80 hit tool in the ALDS.   

[Governator]

On 10/6/2025 at 12:45 PM, Spanky__99 said:

You are correct, also, I really hate these useless asinine threads.

It's not useless, Vlad came here during the off week, saw the thread title and said "Yes Big_Walleye I got to stop stop hitting dribblers back to the pitcher, thats my f***ing problem!"

Thus a star was born

[Olerud363.354]

On 10/6/2025 at 11:41 AM, max silver said:

Does an 80 hit tool necessarily need to come along with an optimal launch angle/sweet spot contact? I thought that the hit tool rating was largely predicated on the repeatable ability to produce base hits and to subsequently record high batting averages year in and year out. 

But it is hard to get a .320 average with a 50% ground ball rate (also hard to do it with a 25% ground ball rate ie Daulton Varsho).  Luis Arraez career launch angle is 12% and launch angle sweet spot percentage is 40%, Vlad's is 7.8% and 33%,  Varshos is like 20% launch angle and 30%.

If one defines 80 hit tool "in game" as a .320 average, top 3 in baseball, batting titles,  best in a generation franchise, which I think is reasonable, then can't get there without a good launch angle sweet spot. 

80 as a tool may be the hand eye coordination to potentially get there.  Which is why Vlad so far I would say is 65 in game with 80 potential and still time to get there.