How the Blue Jays Can Make the Postseason While Avoiding Tiebreakers

With a month left in the season, the American League Wild Card is a jumbled race to secure the third and final spot. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox sit comfortably in the top two spots, with at least a 6.5-game lead over the third spot. However, a losing skid could change their comfort level. 

The Cleveland Guardians sit in third, with six teams nipping at their heels within five games. The Toronto Blue Jays are three games back, but they have the advantage of playing most of these teams over the next month. With so many teams vying for one spot, there’s a good chance a tiebreaker will come into effect. Here are the tiebreaker scenarios, which can also be found on MLB.com.

Tiebreaker Scenarios

If Two Teams Are Tied

1. Head-to-head record determines who advances.
2. Intradivision record determines who advances. If both teams are tied in the head-to-head matchup, their records against their divisional opponents decide who moves on. This gives some teams an advantage over the Blue Jays, who are 23-23 in the AL East, as the Central and West are weaker than the East. With a 64-69 record, the Jays would still have a chance at a division title if they weren’t in the East.
3. Record against AL teams determines who advances. 
4. Record against AL teams after the All-Star break determines who advances.
5. Outcome of last game versus an AL team before the All-Star break determines who advances. If both teams won or lost the last game against an AL opponent, then the tiebreaker moves to the previous game. Repeat until a winner is determined.

If Three Teams Are Tied

If all three teams have identical records against one another, tiebreakers are determined in this order.

1. Highest winning percentage among three tied clubs in intradivision games.
2. Highest winning percentage among three tied clubs in intraleague games. 
3. Highest winning percentage in the second half of intraleague games. 
4. Highest winning percentage in the second half against AL teams plus the last intraleague game of the first half of the season. The “plus one” games can’t be against teams in the tiebreaker. This step backtracks until a winner is determined. 

If the three teams don’t have identical records against one another, these steps determine the tiebreaker.

1. If one team has a better record against each of the other two, it advances.
2. If no team has a better record against each of the other two:

• a. The teams will be ranked by their overall winning percentage against the other two teams combined. The team with the highest overall winning percentage in that group qualifies.
• b. If two of the teams have identical winning percentages against the other two, then they would follow the two-team tiebreak rules to break their tie to determine the qualifier.
• c. If all three teams have identical winning percentages against the other two, then the tiebreak rules above for three clubs having identical records against one another should be followed.

If Four Teams Are Tied

1. If one team has a better record against each of the other three, it advances.
2. Highest winning percentage in games among the tied teams.*
3. Highest winning percentage in intradivision games.*
4. Highest winning percentage in intraleague games.*
5. Highest winning percentage in the second half of AL games.*
6. Highest winning percentage in the second half plus the last first-half AL game. The “plus one” games can’t be against teams in the tiebreaker. This step backtracks until a winner is determined. 

* If two teams have identical winning percentages, then the two-team tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which team qualifies. If three teams have identical winning percentages, then the three-team tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which team(s) qualify.

How the Blue Jays Can Avoid Tiebreakers

Here’s how many games in each upcoming series against teams fighting for the third Wild Card spot the Blue Jays need to win to avoid a tiebreaker. 

Seattle Mariners - August 28-30

The Blue Jays will need to sweep the Mariners if they want to win the season series. The Mariners won two of three games when Toronto struggled offensively in the middle of the season. The Blue Jays were outscored 14-2 and shut out in two games. Seattle also holds the advantage against intradivisional teams with a 20-13 record in the AL West. This means if the Blue Jays don’t get a sweep, they would be eliminated if they end the season tied with Seattle.

Looking at the projected pitching matchups, Toronto has the edge. The matchups are:

• Game 1: Dylan Cease vs. Emerson Hancock
• Game 2: José Soriano vs. Kade Anderson
• Game 3: Max Scherzer vs. Bryce Miller

Game three is the coin flip, but the Blue Jays will be favored in the first two matchups. If they win the first two, I prefer Mad Max in a very important game for both teams, but the questionable part is which version of him we see.

Cleveland Guardians - September 1-3

The Blue Jays have won two of three games against the Guardians. However, Cleveland has a slight lead in intradivisional record (19-17). To win the head-to-head, the Blue Jays need to win two of the three games. Since this series follows the Mariners series, the projected pitching matchups aren’t as ideal for Toronto right now. 

• Game 1: Bullpen game/Jameson Taillon vs. Gavin Williams
• Game 2: Spencer Arrighetti vs. Joey Cantillo
• Game 3: Cease vs. Tanner Bibee

With Cease pitching game three, the pressure on fans eases slightly, but facing Gavin Williams in game one will be a tough task. He’s second in strikeouts among AL pitchers (204), five behind Cease. Although, the Blue Jays are a tough team to strike out.

Baltimore Orioles - September 11-13 and 21-23

As AL East rivals, the Blue Jays will face the Orioles more than any of their other Wild Card opponents. Toronto holds a 4-3 record against Baltimore this season, so they need to win three games over the two series. They also have the better record in the AL East, as the Orioles are 15-20. Baltimore still has a three-game series against both the Red Sox and Yankees. That divisional record is unlikely to improve by much with strong opponents waiting.

Detroit Tigers - September 14-16

The Blue Jays have won two of three games against the Tigers this season. The Blue Jays also hold the intradivisional edge, as the Tigers are 13-25 in the AL Central. Detroit is skidding with only two wins in its last 10 games. The pitching staff is not as impressive after Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize were traded away. This gives Toronto an advantage, as the Jays need to win two of three games to clinch the season series.  

Texas Rangers - September 18-20

The Blue Jays enter this series having already lost the head-to-head matchup. They were swept in a four-game series at the end of June. However, the Rangers' remaining schedule is much tougher than Toronto’s, with series against four teams with winning records: the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Blue Jays currently trail the Rangers by two games, so they’d need to gain some ground, but the remaining strength of schedules is in their favor.

Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins

The Blue Jays won’t play the Astros or Twins anymore this season. Toronto tied the Astros in their head-to-head matchup and leads the intradivisional matchup by one game. However, the Astros have a two-game series against the Mariners and a highly favorable four-game series against the Athletics coming up. These will be their last two series of the season, giving the Blue Jays an idea of how many games the Astros will need to lose if both teams are close in the standings. 

The Twins have won the season series 4-3 and have a 19-18 record against AL Central teams. They have two series against both the White Sox and Tigers remaining, so there’s an opportunity for their intradivisional record to worsen and for the Blue Jays to advance if the season record is tied.