General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[gruber9292]

If Willy Wagner isn't batting lead off by mid April at the worst, then.... 

[Spanky__99]

18 hours ago, Terminator said:

The Twins were running a lot of platoons that year.

I think they had several lefties coming up when Kikuchi came in and the Twins burned their pinch hitters as a result.

They did tag us for a couple of early runs, but we had a great bullpen that year and all of our RH relievers mowed them down the rest of the game. I think this was part of the equation with bringing Kikuchi in.

But because we couldn't score it didn't matter.

Yeah the result didn't matter, but the optics and Ross chucking all accountability and Schneider under the bus is what grinded my gears, I wanted him gone right there, we were a laughing stock at that point league wide, it was embarrassing.

[Vancouverite]

On 2/22/2025 at 5:35 AM, gruber9292 said:

If Willy Wagner isn't batting lead off by mid April at the worst, then.... 

 Yeah but what positions does he play?

 

Don't think you can afford penciling him DH full time. I like having the DH spot to rotate guys in and out

I'm reallt hoping Martinez rips it and by end of season he's our unsung here batting 5th or 6th with 25-30 HR.

The kids got legit power

[Brownie19]

57 minutes ago, Vancouverite said:

 Yeah but what positions does he play?

 

Don't think you can afford penciling him DH full time. I like having the DH spot to rotate guys in and out

I'm reallt hoping Martinez rips it and by end of season he's our unsung here batting 5th or 6th with 25-30 HR.

The kids got legit power

Wagner likely won't start v. LHP, so you can always rotate some guys though then (Santander, Vlad, Bo, Springer, etc.).

The Jays will probably need a couple of the young kids to step up and earn roles in the starting lineup.  Orelvis and Wagner are probably our 2 best bets.

[Terminator]

55 minutes ago, Vancouverite said:

 Yeah but what positions does he play?

 

Don't think you can afford penciling him DH full time. I like having the DH spot to rotate guys in and out

I'm reallt hoping Martinez rips it and by end of season he's our unsung here batting 5th or 6th with 25-30 HR.

The kids got legit power

You're right in that ideally you'd want this guy to play the field. That's why Gimenez was kind of an awkward acquisition since 2B is his natural fit.

But there will be plenty of ABs to go around for Wagner. He can play DH, 2B, and 1B. Roster Resource guys swear he is going to mix in at 3B. Not sure I buy that but he could.

He can mostly DH but if you want to rotate guys into the DH spot you could put Wagner at 2B and Gimenez slides over to SS and Bo can DH. Or you can play Wagner at 1B and Vlad can DH. Or you can just sit Wagner against lefties and use Orelvis to DH.

[glory]

February 2025

April 2024

 

[jaysblue]

Santander you hope is good for 35-40 HR's. Same with Vladdy in his contract year. 

Bo is capable of hitting between 20-25 HR's over a full season..

A healthy Varsho should be able to hit 20-25 HR's, though there is always the potential for more if he gets locked in.  

20+ HR's from Springer would be nice as well. 

The rest of the lineup: Gimenez, Kirk, Clement, Wagner - those guys might hit between 10-15 HR's each in a perfect world. 

Another power bat would have been ideal, but oh well. 

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Santander you hope is good for 35-40 HR's. Same with Vladdy in his contract year. 

Bo is capable of hitting between 20-25 HR's over a full season..

A healthy Varsho should be able to hit 20-25 HR's, though there is always the potential for more if he gets locked in.  

20+ HR's from Springer would be nice as well. 

The rest of the lineup: Gimenez, Kirk, Clement, Wagner - those guys might hit between 10-15 HR's each in a perfect world. 

Another power bat would have been ideal, but oh well. 

Agree with this assessment, though we have seen Vlad flirt with 50 and both Bo and Varsho, within a hair of 30. 

Optimistic outlook for sure, but one of these days there has to be a guy overperform projections right? Just...once?

[Brownie19]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/

Article on what Vlad's worth.  If he repeats 2024, they think he's probably worth $400M over 9 years.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/

Article on what Vlad's worth.  If he repeats 2024, they think he's probably worth $400M over 9 years.

I wouldn't love going towards 45 mil AAV, but I could live with it on a term like 9 years... I would want to vomit daily, but..so be it

[Terminator]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/

Article on what Vlad's worth.  If he repeats 2024, they think he's probably worth $400M over 9 years.

At that point just throw in another 5 years for 50 to 100 million to lower the tax hit. 

[Spanky__99]

On 2/21/2025 at 10:23 PM, jaysblue said:

LOL make it 3 now 🤣

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

Somebody's drunk again...

[Spanky__99]

5 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Somebody's drunk again...

F*ck you! Goof!

[Spanky__99]

19 hours ago, Terminator said:

At that point just throw in another 5 years for 50 to 100 million to lower the tax hit. 

I mentioned this Friday or Saturday, if the money starts with a 5, use deferrals to get it near 10/450 it might be doable(still too much, but doable). Soto and the Mets with that ridiculous contract messed us up, bigly.

[Brownie19]

Nice little breakdown from rotoworld on Gausman's new cutter.  Sorry if this doesn't work for those in dark mode, here's the link to the full article - https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2025-mlb-spring-training-notebook-kevin-gausman-griffin-canning-show-new-pitches.

I was really down on Kevin Gausman coming into the off-season. I had him ranked inside the top 10 overall starters last year despite acknowledging that he was essentially a one-pitch pitcher with an elite splitter and a mediocre fastball. That was why he always gave up a lot of hard contact and had high WHIPs. While there were some years in San Francisco where he seemed to get his walk rate in check and posted strong WHIPs, he’s been about a 1.22 WHIP pitcher in his three seasons in Toronto and that can actually hurt your team when you’re getting 180+ innings of that high of a WHIP from your supposed ace.

On top of that, Gausman had allowed at least a 42% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) in each of 2022 and 2023, and I should have paid more attention to that. I like using ICR instead of barrel rate because ICR includes hard groundballs while barrel rate ignores them because of their low launch angle. Still, hard groundballs often turn into hits, and hits turn into baserunners, so we don’t like pitchers who give up hard contact, whether it’s in the air or on the ground.

Gausman’s splitter regressed a bit in 2024, and we have to remember that we only have three years of elite production from Gausman after he reinvented himself in San Francisco. It’s not like he’s been a stud for 10 years and just lost it for one season last year. Pitchers who rely on the splitter as their primary pitch are always a risk, so I came into the off-season ready to plummet Gausman down my rankings, and I did at first. However, I’m more in on Gausman than I was a month ago because of the continued talk that he will use a new cutter or sinker more in 2025. That could be a game-changer for Gausman.

He introduced the sinker at the end of April last season and seemed to get more confident in it as the year went on. He threw the pitch primarily to righties, using it just under 10% of the time, but he struggled with command of it. It posted just a 30% zone rate (well below the 53% league average) and had a 57% strike rate (well below the 67.4% league average). The sinker also didn’t miss bats but, importantly, it did allow just a 30% ICR, and that’s what we want here.

Gausman used the sinker against righties to give them a look at another fastball besides the four-seamer. That should theoretically allow the four-seamer to play up more as a swing-and-miss pitch but also be squared up less than it was previously. The only issue here is that, since Gausman couldn’t command the sinker, hitters didn’t worry about it much. His four-seamer did miss more bats in 2024 than it did in 2023, but it also got hit harder. Some of that also could have been that he also used the sinker low in the zone to righties, so when they saw a low fastball, they knew it was a sinker, and a high fastball was a four-seamer. Still, even though the pitch didn’t work great for him in 2024, I think the idea behind incorporating it was spot-on, and a better command of the pitch could make a real impact in 2025.

We also know that Gausman intends to use a cutter in 2025, which is a pitch he’s never thrown before. The cutter should operate as a second fastball variation to left-handed hitters in the same way the sinker is to righties. In 2024, Gausman got below-average swinging strikes on his four-seamer to lefties but didn’t allow a lot of hard contact. However, his splitter was far less impactful against lefties in 2024. That has a lot to do with Gausman’s command of the pitch itself, but he also only used the four-seam inside the lefties 20% of the time, so lefties were able to look away and could have picked up the splitter more easily. Using a cutter to jam lefties up and in will open up the outside part of the plate for him to get more swings and misses with the splitter.

At 34 years old, I think the days of Gausman as a top-10 starter are done, and the majority of his bounceback is going to have to come from getting more strikes and chases with his splitter. However, I think these added fastball variations could help with that. Each one can be used up and inside to hitters, which will back them up off the plate and make it harder for hitters to time up the splitter low and away. Also, even if the sinker and cutter are just average, it will mean that hitters won’t be able to sit on his four-seam fastball as much as they have been in the past, which should lead to less hard contact and potentially better WHIPs. That could allow us to get a 3.50 ERA season out of Gausman, with his strikeout rate climbing back up around 26% or higher.

[max silver]

16 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

Somebody's drunk again...

Somebody is still a mouth breather.

[Orgfiller]

39 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Nice little breakdown from rotoworld on Gausman's new cutter.  Sorry if this doesn't work for those in dark mode, here's the link to the full article - https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2025-mlb-spring-training-notebook-kevin-gausman-griffin-canning-show-new-pitches.

...

Not sure if you did anything different from other times, but this time it pasted seamlessly.

[Brownie19]

15 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Not sure if you did anything different from other times, but this time it pasted seamlessly.

Thanks for letting me know.  As I was adjusting the font size, I noticed a button to "remove format" and clicked it.  Glad to hear that fixes the issue.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Somebody is still a mouth breather.

 

What a burn

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

17 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

F*ck you! Goof!

Yep.  Wasted.

[max silver]

54 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

 

What a burn

I'm trying to be civil. I would say much worse but I've been on my best behavior since new management took over. 

[BB17]

Not sure the cutter will work for Gauseman since he struggles in getting pitches to move glove side with the way he throws the ball. Guess we will see though!

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

20 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

F*ck you! Goof!

Reported.

[Jonn]

People on this board are going to be in absolute shambles when Roden wins AL ROY.

[Terminator]

13 minutes ago, Jonn said:

People on this board are going to be in absolute shambles when Roden wins AL ROY.

Wouldn't we all be pretty happy?

[max silver]

14 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Wouldn't we all be pretty happy?

Yeah I don't get why anyone would be in shambles. I don't even recall any major criticism sent his way either so this is just a puzzling post. I'm a big Roden supporter personally and I think he's the player with the best shot of providing any level of impact in the upper levels of the minors based on his toolset.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

35 minutes ago, Jonn said:

People on this board are going to be in absolute shambles when Roden wins AL ROY.

Why do you say that?

Everyone would be ecstatic if he won ROY.

[BatFlip]

11 minutes ago, max silver said:

Yeah I don't get why anyone would be in shambles. I don't even recall any major criticism sent his way either so this is just a puzzling post. I'm a big Roden supporter personally and I think he's the player with the best shot of providing any level of impact in the upper levels of the minors based on his toolset.

Classic Jonn.  He cheers against our own players so he assumes that the rest of us are also whiney, wet blankets.  

[Pendleton]

43 minutes ago, Jonn said:

People on this board are going to be in absolute shambles when Roden wins AL ROY.

...tell us what you think a shamble is