General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[jaysblue]

14 hours ago, Grant77 said:

A second game lost already because we didn't invest in middle relief, via major league signings, or smart minor league signings. It was an obvious black hole and surely guys would have jumped at the chance to earn a spot.

Who's next in the merry-go-round of s***** ass relievers when Fluharty gets DFA'd?

Seems like the Jays just abandoned this issue and likely will keep rotating through guys from Buffalo like you said. By time they address the situation in June/July, will be too late. Kinda feels like deja vu from 2021. 

[Grant77]

10 hours ago, max silver said:

The team is down an important reliever in Swanson. If/when he comes back Fluharty will likely find his way back to AAA.

Swanson has a FIP over 6 last season and we knew that he was injured well before the season started. 

 

I believe that he can be good, but counting on him as a key reliever would have been extremely naive. It's not like we're a solid bullpen group with only 1 weak spot, either. The lack of both talent and depth was extremely obvious back in February.

 

Did you actually believe that we wouldn't have to use minor league calibre relievers in key situations before the season started? I think a lot of us saw this situation coming and being a problem all season.

[Laika]

It's not 1999. 

You can just measure the stuff of guys like Fluharty and Little and compare it to available free agents. They probably project better than the alternatives that weren't signed, or at least it was close enough to justify not allocating any additional budget to the bullpen.

Flu is probably good. Now should he have been facing Juan Soto there? Different question.

[Brownie19]

Laika is spot on IMO.  We're talking about the last couple of arms in the pen.  I think most teams struggle to fill those spots with reliable arms.  It's not like we penciled Swanson in as the setup guy.

We broke camp with Lovelady over Fluharty because Flu had options.  You're typically trying to find lightning in a bottle with those last few spots and roster management is used to give you as many chances as possible to catch that lightning.  

This isn't new.  Almost every team does this.  Criticizing this approach is silly.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Laika is spot on IMO.  We're talking about the last couple of arms in the pen.  I think most teams struggle to fill those spots with reliable arms.  It's not like we penciled Swanson in as the setup guy.

We broke camp with Lovelady over Fluharty because Flu had options.  You're typically trying to find lightning in a bottle with those last few spots and roster management is used to give you as many chances as possible to catch that lightning.  

This isn't new.  Almost every team does this.  Criticizing this approach is silly.

Agree somewhat, but lets hope this isn't a revolving door with struggles and hope that someone does stick or the FO makes the necessary upgrades.  Can't be an ongoing issue through June/July. 

[mphenhef]

I have said it before and will say it again I am sure.  The biggest failing of this front office has been the complete inability to draft and develop any pitchers.  They haven’t even managed to draft and develop relievers even.  Middle relievers should not be the types that you spend any money or trade assets on but this front office has had to time and time again due to this complete failing to develop ANYTHING.

[Grant77]

If it were as simple as looking at a 'stuff' stat and only signing guys if it's higher than your available relievers then we wouldn't see teams consistently build good bullpens, while other teams like us consistently struggle.

If we truly thought that guys like Lovelady and Fluharty were better than the players available then that suggests that our projection systems are extraordinarily flawed. We have perhaps the league's finest pitching coach and still can't get results. I have doubts that it's a coaching problem.

That can be addressed, but in the meantime we should have acknowledged our failures and spent a bit of money to get better options in place. Chris Martin (1/5), Jonathan Loaisaga (1/3), and Justin Wilson (1/2) were some names that I suggested in the offseason. There's a good chance that we already have another win this season, had we signed one of them 

[Jonn]

This team has played 10 games.

There’s 5 players who have individually matched our entire team’s Homerun total. Aaron Judge has out homered our roster himself.

And only 3 players have hit our 5 combined Homeruns. Our backup Catcher has one. George Springer has one. And our glove First Second Baseman has the other 3.

Pretty crazy and sad.

[Brownie19]

9 hours ago, Jonn said:

This team has played 10 games.

There’s 5 players who have individually matched our entire team’s Homerun total. Aaron Judge has out homered our roster himself.

And only 3 players have hit our 5 combined Homeruns. Our backup Catcher has one. George Springer has one. And our glove First Second Baseman has the other 3.

Pretty crazy and sad.

oooof - it has been painful.  Apparently Santander is known to be a slow starter, but we need to get it going boys.

[Laika]

9 hours ago, Jonn said:

This team has played 10 games.

There’s 5 players who have individually matched our entire team’s Homerun total. Aaron Judge has out homered our roster himself.

And only 3 players have hit our 5 combined Homeruns. Our backup Catcher has one. George Springer has one. And our glove First Second Baseman has the other 3.

Pretty crazy and sad.

and it's not even like there have been a good number of warning track shots or just foul cranks 

this team is driving nothing 

3rd last in MLB in barrel rate 
#26 in ISO 
#7 in MLB in oppo rate 
#24 in FB rate 
#3 in MLB in IFFB rate 
#28 in stolen bases 

I hope you guys like singles because that's pretty much all the 2025 Blue Jays know how to do.  

[John_Havok]

8 minutes ago, Laika said:

and it's not even like there have been a good number of warning track shots or just foul cranks 

this team is driving nothing 

3rd last in MLB in barrel rate 
#26 in ISO 
#7 in MLB in oppo rate 
#24 in FB rate 
#3 in MLB in IFFB rate 
#28 in stolen bases 

I hope you guys like singles because that's pretty much all the 2025 Blue Jays know how to do.  

There's more guys on the Jays hitting singles than a Dr. Dinger weekend house party.

[mphenhef]

What makes this even worse is the fact they haven't exactly been facing tough starters thus far. 

[BB17]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

and it's not even like there have been a good number of warning track shots or just foul cranks 

this team is driving nothing 

3rd last in MLB in barrel rate 
#26 in ISO 
#7 in MLB in oppo rate 
#24 in FB rate 
#3 in MLB in IFFB rate 
#28 in stolen bases 

I hope you guys like singles because that's pretty much all the 2025 Blue Jays know how to do.  

I mean Ernie was a couple feet from a homer and Santander on the homestand had a couple 110+ exit velo homer shots go foul.  One game could skew the numbers back pretty easily but yeah not pretty so far. 

Feels like a lot of hittable pitches they've missed on too. 

[Laika]

MLBTR poll is a landslide 

Personally I think people are being a bit too dismissive about a Bo extension 

[Terminator]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

MLBTR poll is a landslide 

Personally I think people are being a bit too dismissive about a Bo extension 

Yeah I wouldn't really put anything past Ed Rogers when it comes to spending at this point.

[Brownie19]

I'm all for signing Bo if he comes at a reasonable price.  Dude can hit.  He should probably flipflop with Gimenez, but he's legit with the stick.

[Jonn]

Would be kind of stupid to give Vlad all that money only to let Bo walk. Just taking a step back and he will need to  be replaced.

[John_Havok]

9 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Would be kind of stupid to give Vlad all that money only to let Bo walk. Just taking a step back and he will need to  be replaced.

I think the same, but... what Bo gonna cost? Is Bo worth 10/300? That's probably where his ask is starting from given the recent history at the position in FA. No, he's not the same player as the below guys but ... s*** is getting weird with contracts these days

Bogaerts 11/280

Turner 11/300

Machado 10/300

Seager 10/325

[Brownie19]

9 hours ago, Jonn said:

Would be kind of stupid to give Vlad all that money only to let Bo walk. Just taking a step back and he will need to  be replaced.

You could suggest that Gimenez replaces Bo and he's already signed...

Bo can be traded to help replenish the farm system.  But it puts pressure on us to keep landing FAs, which isn't easy.

[glory]

I actually think there's a better than 50% chance that Bo stays now. The only big market team that needs a SS is the Dodgers, and they don't seem like a team that would get into a bidding war for Bichette. I'm not sure where else Bo would be able to get big money. Rogers is obviously willing to overpay (see Vlad), plus now Bo has a reason to stay with his buddy extended. I doubt Kyle Tucker is a real option for the Jays, and I'd be surprised if Schwarber leaves Philly. Not much else available in free agency with any real impact potential on the position player side. 

Of course, if the Jays are out of it at the deadline and decide to trade Bo, then all bets are off. 

[Laika]

Big Shortstops
Age at Big Contract Commencement 

Seager - 28
Lindor - 28
Machado - 30
Bogaerts - 30
Turner - 30

Bo will be 28. 

This doesn't mean he deserves 10/$300 but it does mean he has a good argument for a long deal if he has a good season. Maybe it's more like 10/$250. 

[Laika]

Honestly, Bo's defense may be more interesting to watch this year than his bat. 

I don't have a lot of doubts about his ability to hit. Yeah the power comes and goes and we would all like him to pull 28 homers but if he hits .280 with 15 homers as every system expects, that's still a very good hitter for the position in a league where the typical player hits f***ing .239 these days. 

But the defense is a more interesting question. Fringe defender by scouting reports entering the league and bad metrics in his first two full seasons, 2021 and 2022, including a -7 OAA in 2022 with an even uglier UZR. 

Different story in 2023. Positive UZR! An OAA of -3 is more palatable.

2024, limited time of course around the injuries, but UZR and OAA were both in the green. 

Too early in 2025 to tell but he looks solid and has +1 OAA. Anecdotally we do seem a few years removed from him being an obviously bad shortstop. 

Perceptions of him in terms of a long/big contract are much different if you think he can provide 4 years of shortstop defense at the front end of the deal.  

[BB17]

Bo seems to have gotten pretty good at making the routine plays where as in the past there was a lot of throwing errors. You can see on that one play last night where if he doesn’t get his feet set the throw was awful. His range still seems below average just watching though and only will continue to get worse as he ages.

And I’m not really sure you want to hand over $300M to a guy with no position in 4-5 years. It’s been great to see him hitting well so far this year but you don’t want to be stuck with a Bogarts contract. And with Vladdy having 5 sunk years at the end you don’t want to be paying Bo and Vladdy $70M a year for 2 War in the last 5 years of that deal.

[Terminator]

Get your checkbook out Ed, it's time to write one out to Bo

[Terminator]

 

[Laika]

Time to start looking at his other characteristics like arm angle, extension, deception, stuff like that. Is he better than his raw stuff numbers would indicate? 

[Terminator]

He throws his fastball a ton. Almost 60%. Gets good rise on it which is about the only above average movement shown on his pitches via statcast. Opposing batters are 1 for 20 against it, the lone hit being a single lol.

Seems like hitters might adjust to that but then he can counter-adjust by throwing his junk more often.

His heat maps look excellent to me. He attacks the zone vertically with high fastballs and low changeups. Sliders and sweepers are low and away or up and in. Having elite framers has to help.

Deception might be really good. Three quarters slot from a lefty with two pitches that tail in (one which rises) and two that break. The velos on the changeup and slider are exactly the same which isn't uncommon but helps. 

 

[glory]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

Bo seems to have gotten pretty good at making the routine plays where as in the past there was a lot of throwing errors. You can see on that one play last night where if he doesn’t get his feet set the throw was awful. His range still seems below average just watching though and only will continue to get worse as he ages.

And I’m not really sure you want to hand over $300M to a guy with no position in 4-5 years. It’s been great to see him hitting well so far this year but you don’t want to be stuck with a Bogarts contract. And with Vladdy having 5 sunk years at the end you don’t want to be paying Bo and Vladdy $70M a year for 2 War in the last 5 years of that deal.

Seems like Ed was a big part of the Vlad extension, so logic might not be in play here, but Vlad is obviously more important to the Jays from a marketing standpoint than Bo is, so who knows how far they would be willing to go for Bichette. Would be nice if Jimenez or Kasevich turn into 2026 SS options this season, but both are hurt at the moment. Or they could shift Gimenez over to short and run a Wagner/Jimenez platoon at 2B, which might not be that bad assuming the defense (Wagner's) is average or better, though I wonder if they'd even want to move Gimenez given how elite he is at 2B. Or maybe Orelvis finally figures things out, but I suspect if the Jays are in a playoff race in July, then he's the one they'll ship out for more help. 

[Laika]

Yeah Rogers clearly stepped in and saw Vlad as a marketing extension. 

That won't apply for Bo Bichette so the numbers need to make sense to Boss Atkins. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, BB17 said:

And I’m not really sure you want to hand over $300M to a guy with no position in 4-5 years. It’s been great to see him hitting well so far this year but you don’t want to be stuck with a Bogarts contract. And with Vladdy having 5 sunk years at the end you don’t want to be paying Bo and Vladdy $70M a year for 2 War in the last 5 years of that deal.

Frankly - this is beta talk. You can't get worried about what might happen in 2034.  If you focus on the potential negatives far into the future, you'll never sign anyone.