The Ship is Sinking

[jaysblue]

The Green deal still has plenty of time to work out for the team so I don't know why you feel the need to dunk on that signing at this point.

 

I'm not dunking on the signing but I did acknowledge that it was a lot of money at the time and it came with risk due to his injury concerns. As well, stated that I hope the $11M didn't handcuff the Jays from making other moves this offseason. You and the other members of the Atkins cult were praising the signing as such a bargain and steal. Any criticism of the deal was met with backlash lol. If Green is healthy, I think he definitely is a valuable arm but I wouldn't bet on it.

[jaysblue]

They threw in the towel in April, of course they will judge a signing after 6 innings

 

He only has pitched 6 innings because he's been on the IL and how many months coming off TJS? I thought Atkins and this front office only target durable and healthy arms?

[BTS]

Like 80% of the posts on this forum boil down to "Remember the time when me, being smart, was right and you, being less smart than me, was wrong".

[jaysblue]

Yup. I said last year the Jays will be lucky to get 2 WAR from Springer going forward. He's not what he used to be, and should be moved accordingly.

 

Wonder if there are any trades for Springer out there. Like trade him for another veteran player or arm that needs a change of scenery.

[Terminator]

He only has pitched 6 innings because he's been on the IL and how many months coming off TJS? I thought Atkins and this front office only target durable and healthy arms?

 

Wow you really nailed the front office on this one. One of their relievers suffered a minor injury.

[BigCecil]

Like 80% of the posts on this forum boil down to "Remember the time when me, being smart, was right and you, being less smart than me, was wrong".

 

BTS loves the "Plague on Both Your Houses" takes, but usually he is only really targeting one House.

[Terminator]

BTS loves the "Plague on Both Your Houses" takes, but usually he is only really targeting one House.

 

As we discussed yesterday, the haters and losers that make up the Debbie Downers all live in caves, akin to the Hills Have Eyes people.

 

Team Not Panicking do in fact live in houses. (Admittedly that house is our mother's house for some of us, but still better than a cave.)

[BTS]

BTS loves the "Plague on Both Your Houses" takes, but usually he is only really targeting one House.

 

I love all of you equally

[wilko]

Wonder if there are any trades for Springer out there. Like trade him for another veteran player or arm that needs a change of scenery.

 

I doubt it unless it's a money for money type of deal. That or you throw some prospects in and salary dump him.

[Key22]

I really wanted the Jays to sign Hicks instead of Green - only $2m more per year (granted two more years) but he is younger.

 

It also kind of hurts in hindsight too when you see what Hicks has been doing.

[BTS]

It's May 7th and the team currently has a -45 run differential. This is worst case scenario territory. A total clusterf***.

[jaysblue]

I really wanted the Jays to sign Hicks instead of Green - only $2m more per year (granted two more years) but he is younger.

 

It also kind of hurts in hindsight too when you see what Hicks has been doing.

 

Don't think the Jays had a chance at bringing back Hicks unless they offered him a job in the rotation. Giants from the get go were willing to sign Hicks and give him another shot as a starter.

[BCZ]

Call up the replacements lolz / Aaron Sanchez plz lolz

[jaysblue]

I doubt it unless it's a money for money type of deal. That or you throw some prospects in and salary dump him.

 

Yeah a money for money type of deal. Maybe someone like a Starling Marte (19.5M AAV and one less year) or Nolan Arenado (1.2 WAR already this season but doubt the Cards move him right now). Just some names off the top of my head.

[Carlos Danger]

It is not a ship anymore, it is a submarine with a screen door.

[Masterbather]

It is not a ship anymore, it is a submarine with a screen door.

 

Carbon fiber submersible?

 

Too soon?

[mikepelfrey]

It is not a ship anymore, it is a submarine with a screen door.

 

 

nice allusion its sad that its so apt. this team has so much talent and so little heart

[tazsub3]

some have been apologist, i know i have s*** on that management from the day they got hired tthen let aa go and continue to do so.

Sadly that dont make it any better as a fan.... except the hope they will soon be

gone.

 

Jays in my eyes should be an elite team in MLB, not following the footsteps of Cleveland.

[RobinThicc]

Bichette, Gausman, Varsho can net very solid prospects. Berrios probably too.

 

Depends on if you trust the front office to identify and develop those prospects.

[slips96]

It don't matter what players on the team when your position coaches are absolute trash. Still waiting for someone to tell me what our hitting coach Martinez has ever done in baseball to warrant being a pro ball club hitting coach? Walker historically not good with pitchers. Our pitchers get worse the longer they work with him.

[Stangstag]

Don't think the Jays had a chance at bringing back Hicks unless they offered him a job in the rotation. Giants from the get go were willing to sign Hicks and give him another shot as a starter.

 

Im not sure why we weren’t interested in giving him a shot as 5th starter. I guess the front office likes Manoah and Yrod better?? Maybe Hicks wasn’t interested in coming back at all

[Stangstag]

Bichette, Gausman, Varsho can net very solid prospects. Berrios probably too.

 

Depends on if you trust the front office to identify and develop those prospects.

 

Can’t wait to trade away Varsho for a fraction of the cost we acquired him for

[Brownie19]

Im not sure why we weren’t interested in giving him a shot as 5th starter. I guess the front office likes Manoah and Yrod better?? Maybe Hicks wasn’t interested in coming back at all

 

To be fair, Hicks was awful as a starter in the past. His transformation into a starter is pretty amazing. This is probably the 95th percentile outcome and I don't think many at all saw him having anywhere near this type of success. If they did, he would have gotten more $$$. I mean kudos to the Giants, but this has to be working out beyond even their wildest dreams.

[Masterbather]

Can’t wait to trade away Varsho for a fraction of the cost we acquired him for

Absolutely.

[L54]

Can’t wait to trade away Varsho for a fraction of the cost we acquired him for

 

They really didn’t give up that much. Gurriel was a free agent and Moreno had and still has massive questions about his power. He profiles extremely similar to Kiebert Ruiz who has like a 20 wRC+ right now so those guys can go south quick

 

Both C and CF are premium positions and they had depth. Moreno’s post season coupled with the “top prospect in baseball” tag make it seem worse. He was a top prospect because of high floor defensive ability which is fine but I doubt he turns into a legit stud

 

I wouldn’t trade Varsho. Cheap and elite defense. You need some major league players during a rebuild

[jaysblue]

To be fair, Hicks was awful as a starter in the past. His transformation into a starter is pretty amazing. This is probably the 95th percentile outcome and I don't think many at all saw him having anywhere near this type of success. If they did, he would have gotten more $$$. I mean kudos to the Giants, but this has to be working out beyond even their wildest dreams.

 

He's still only 27 and always has had electric stuff, so definitely worth the gamble for San Fran. Worst case, they move him back to the pen and he's still a valuable late-inning arm at $11M per season. Pitching in San Fran helps for sure. K/9 as a starter (7.11K/9) lower than his career averages and has a 3.25 FIP thus far. Still quite impressive over his first 7 starts but will be interesting to see how he holds up over a full season.

 

If San Fran gave him 4 years and $44M, sure the Blue Jays would have had to either go an extra year and/or up the AAV. Plus who knows if Hicks wanted to return to Toronto anyways.

[jaysblue]

Im not sure why we weren’t interested in giving him a shot as 5th starter. I guess the front office likes Manoah and Yrod better?? Maybe Hicks wasn’t interested in coming back at all

 

Yeah maybe Hicks wasn't interested in coming back. As well, if the Giants gave him 4 years/$44M, Jays likely have to go an extra year and/or up the AAV maybe closer to $13-14M.

 

Even if he never panned out as a starter, still worth the 4 years/$44M for the Giants, since most late-inning arms were getting similar years and AAV.

[Ray]

The thing is, would firing Ross Atkins even translate to tangible changes? Or is it simply something to appease the masses for optics' sake? Not saying you don't do it, but I'm struggling to think about how much of an impact that will actually have.

 

Like okay, let's assume Ross Atkins is fired and replaced by James Click. There are 46 people listed in the official Blue Jays Front Office directory who work in baseball operations. These research analysts, data scientists, software engineers, scouts, and systems developers are ultimately the ones who are suggesting processes, draft decisions, roster acquisitions, gameplans, and even day-to-day roster moves. I think the GM has ownership over broad baseball strategy, but I also think they have less influence on day-to-day than we actually think. I really don't think firing Atkins would make the analysts think about optimizing their models more or 'work better'. There are no 'unilateral' decision-makers in modern baseball anymore (unless you're absolute trash orgs like the Rockies or White Sox). Replacing Click with Atkins actually might not do anything unless you re-evaluate your entire baseball ops strategy and decision-making.

 

I think in terms of major league trades and player acquisitions, the baseball ops department has objectively been pretty good. Someone identified Tesocar and Lourdes and they became good contributors. The process of identifying pitching at the major league level has led to some great success stories that most orgs could hope for (turning Ray into a Cy Young Winner, Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, not to speak of the bullpen success last year).

 

The biggest negative about this organization is the inability to draft/develop well to feed a sustainable winner. It feels like they haven't cracked the code the same way that high-functioning orgs like the Rays, Dodgers, Padres, and Braves have done where the cupboard is always full enough to have "waves of talent", or to make high-impact trades. And maybe that changes soon with the PDP complex showing results, but that's the biggest slight against Shapiro/Atkins IMO. That the scouts, talent evaluators, and analysts they hired haven't been good enough to yield a good farm system. It's the thing that would keep me up at night most knowing that we haven't drafted well at all in recent years, and unless either the processes, or talent evaluation, or synergy between player development/scouting department improves, I don't know how you fix it, because it truly seems deep rooted.

[Spanky99]

Like 80% of the posts on this forum boil down to "Remember the time when me, being smart, was right and you, being less smart than me, was wrong".

 

Hindsight is a beautiful f***ing thing. lol

[Spanky99]

It's May 7th and the team currently has a -45 run differential. This is worst case scenario territory. A total clusterf***.

 

Never thought I'd see that, terrible in every facet of the game, it has to turn around right, RIGHT???