The Ship is Sinking

[Laika]

Teams will jump on Berrios. Solid 2 who stays healthy. Invaluable.

 

Probably. Backloaded contract though, coming off a weak offseason for free agents.

[Laika]

Berrios is an easy sell. Dude is virtually a unicorn these days.

 

Varsho isn't worth a lot. Doesn't belong on the list with the potential of the other 2.

 

He might be the best player on the team and he's cheap / still controllable. Definitely worth a lot, lol.

[hanton]

Potentially worth a lot:

Varsho

Bichette (assuming he starts trending in the right direction)

Gausman (assuming he starts looking like an Ace again)

 

Worth a good amount:

Kikuchi

Jansen

Romano (assuming he starts looking like himself)

 

Worth something:

Garcia

Turner

 

Might be worth something to someone?

Vlad

 

You might get a B prospect.... or D prospect... or international money... or cash...

Richards (if he is shoving before the trade deadline)

Biggio

Mayza (if he is shoving before the trade deadline)

Swanson (if he is shoving before the trade deadline)

Cabrera (if he is shoving before the trade deadline)

Pearson

 

Someone might take on the contract?

Berrios

IKF (if someone is desperate for infield D)

Green (he has to look great for a bit)

KK (a team with no CF)

 

Nobody is touching the contract:

Springer

Bassitt

 

trade from a position of strength to maximize your return, Kikuchi and Berrios would be at the top of my list

[Masterbather]

He might be the best player on the team and he's cheap / still controllable. Definitely worth a lot, lol.

 

Not buying it, if Gausman returns to ace form and Bo gets back to being Bo, both are easily more valuable because they are frontline talents. Varsho might be a platoon OF and defensive replacement/pinch runner on a championship team.

[Laika]

Not buying it, if Gausman returns to ace form and Bo gets back to being Bo, both are easily more valuable because they are frontline talents. Varsho might be a platoon OF and defensive replacement/pinch runner on a championship team.

 

Did you come into the world this way or was it like, childhood meningitis or something like that?

[Masterbather]

Did you come into the world this way or was it like, childhood meningitis or something like that?

 

I stand by what I said. Teams won frontline talent in the playoffs. He's not a front of the rotation arm nor a top of the order type of bat. He has value but not like that.

[connorp]

Arjun Nimmala looks like he sucks. I understand he was raw, but looks like he sucks

[glory]

Anthony Kay?

 

Kay, Merryweather, Waguespack, Pannone, Paulino, Perez, McKinney, Drury, Wall, Spanberger, Fisher, Hatch, Johnston, Copping.

 

Atkins doing the selling is kinda terrifying. There was Teoscar and Espinal in that group though, as well as SWR, so not all bad. The key is whether the Jays will actually trade guys one year too early rather than one year too late. It was mostly the latter during the last rebuild.

[Stangstag]

Its hard to see the Front office throwing in the towel and selling at the deadline this year. I think they double down and trade prospects for a bat or two. Its quite possible these guys' jobs hinge on a solid playoff run in 2024.

 

I think if there's a rebuild, it would have to happen in the offseason and it would have to be after Atkins (maybe Shapiro too?) is canned.

[glory]

Its hard to see the Front office throwing in the towel and selling at the deadline this year. I think they double down and trade prospects for a bat or two. Its quite possible these guys' jobs hinge on a solid playoff run in 2024.

 

I think if there's a rebuild, it would have to happen in the offseason and it would have to be after Atkins (maybe Shapiro too?) is canned.

 

I think they will 100% try to contend in 2025. Shapiro has a year left on his deal and they just did expensive stadium renovations. What they do at the deadline really depends on where they are in the standings, but if they are selling, then I think it's the impending FA's only that are moved. They'll keep Vlad, Bo, Romano, Gausman, Berrios, etc, in an effort to give it one last try next year. It's exactly how they played it during the last rebuild (2017-18) and that was with AA's core. Atkins would have dismantle his own core in this scenario, and I can't see him doing that, nor should he be allowed to be doing that. It's a weird spot to be in.

[L54]

Its hard to see the Front office throwing in the towel and selling at the deadline this year. I think they double down and trade prospects for a bat or two. Its quite possible these guys' jobs hinge on a solid playoff run in 2024.

 

I think if there's a rebuild, it would have to happen in the offseason and it would have to be after Atkins (maybe Shapiro too?) is canned.

 

I’m starting to see a path where Atkins at least is relieved of his duties this season

 

You can’t possibly kick this can down the road. They’re in an awkward spot

 

Kinda like how Baltimore is in an awkward spot too. Except their problem is they have too many good young players

[Omar]

I’m starting to see a path where Atkins at least is relieved of his duties this season

 

You can’t possibly kick this can down the road. They’re in an awkward spot

 

Kinda like how Baltimore is in an awkward spot too. Except their problem is they have too many good young players

 

A General Manager fired in season is unlikely. Perhaps Shapiro takes the reins himself until a new candidate is identified. I guess it's possible. Terrible optics if both Atkins and Schneider are canned in season. Makes the org look mickey mouse.

[MikeM3]

You guys realize we have a banner hanging for wild card appearances right? We will never sell

[Carlos Danger]

Worst case scenario is we start playing .600 ball for the two weeks prior to the trade deadline.

[Stangstag]

Worst case scenario is we start playing .600 ball for the two weeks prior to the trade deadline.

 

Classic Angels

[Key22]

If the Jays do fire Atkins - who is the new hire? Kim Ng - You know how the Jays like Optics.

 

I think you would want someone from outside the organization to take over. Then she would be able to can the manager and hire someone new.

 

Shapiro can be somewhat shielded because his job apparently isn't related to signing free agents and drafting - his job is the business side of things, stadium renovation and spring training facilities and that sort of thing.

 

To be fair - the free agent class this year was absolutely ABYSMAL. It was basically Ohtani or not much of anything. I mean Turner looks to be a pretty good signing. Chapman and his 81+ OPS (.619OPS) isn't exactly someone who would have helped.

 

At the end of the day - there is only so much you can do as manager or GM - on paper they should be better than this.

 

Varsho has a 1.9 WAR so far

 

Lourdes has a 0.3 WAR so far

Moreno has a 0.5 WAR so far

Combined 0.8 WAR

 

So even that trade right now isn't looking too bad when you consider that the Jays are paying very little for Varsho.

 

Unfortunately, I don't think anyone would think that Springer would fall off a cliff so fast - or that Bo would be this terrible for so long. Or that the bullpen would completely s*** the bed coming off a strong season last year - with pretty much all the same guys back.

[L54]

You guys realize we have a banner hanging for wild card appearances right? We will never sell

 

Flags fly forever

 

What a ride that was

[L54]

A General Manager fired in season is unlikely. Perhaps Shapiro takes the reins himself until a new candidate is identified. I guess it's possible. Terrible optics if both Atkins and Schneider are canned in season. Makes the org look mickey mouse.

 

Might be unlikely but every series they lose the bunsen burner flame gets a little warmer

 

I wouldn’t care about external optics at this point. Do what needs to be done

[Joltin Joe]

Tear it down I say. This management group don't have it. Did same thing in Cleveland.

 

Do another rebuild. We have a lot of movable parts.

 

Our 5th rebuild in 30 years. Under Ash, Riccardi, AA, Sharipo, ???

[BTS]

With Vlad and Bo being so bad that nobody even wants the team to extend them, this is the AL San Francisco Giants. There is no core of impact talent in place. Unless the team goes out and gets Juan Soto or something, it probably makes sense to move the remaining vets, clear all payroll commitments, and reload for 2026 and beyond. But its a tough situation because Ross Atkins shouldn't be allowed to oversee the retool. If the team keeps losing, Shapiro needs to earn his pay and properly set the direction of the franchise, which should include replacing the head of baseball ops.

[BigCecil]

Might be unlikely but every series they lose the bunsen burner flame gets a little warmer

 

I wouldn’t care about external optics at this point. Do what needs to be done

 

This is where we are at. Shapiro is adept at setting up a foil in Ross. Ross has a very rigid baseball operations approval threshold on asset management, as well as anything material over certain values, that affect financial signings & payroll/projections/revenue/budget that good ol' Shappy has sold to the Board as the strategy and approach each fiscal year.

 

Anything material beyond a low threshold in baseball operations requires Shapiro review and approval, for obvious reasons. Standard in in large corp business. The CEO is where the buck stops. Its a popular myth on this board that this is not the case.

 

At this point, I'd like to see them both go, but I would settle for Ross right now. The reason for this is the paramount importance of having more clinical objective new eyes deal with the transition out of Bo, Vlad, Jano, Kooch era this year and next.

 

What I actually think will happen is the worst of all worlds. Nobody will go except JS. They will 2017 it and try and milk a withering bunch to death trying to gloss over the situation and keep the new renos full, and the appearance of success. I think this team will still WIN 85 games or close to it - in other words half pregnant between "competitive" and teetering on a rebuild.

[BigCecil]

Flags fly forever

 

What a ride that was

 

Yes, we have the banner to celebrate for all time the kick off of Jays elite pitching and D era wildcard series.

 

Where we got outpitched and outhit by MINN scoring 1 run in 18 innings, and eliminated in 2 games.

 

A victim of the playoff "randomness" crap shoot again.

[connorp]

Yes, we have the banner to celebrate for all time the kick off of Jays elite pitching and D era wildcard series.

 

Where we got outpitched and outhit by MINN scoring 1 run in 18 innings, and eliminated in 2 games.

 

A victim of the playoff "randomness" crap shoot again.

 

One could call in foreshadowing of the 2024 season. But since it was how things were going into the playoffs. It’s almost like it’s been one giant continuation.

[L54]

[

At this point, I'd like to see them both go, but I would settle for Ross right now. The reason for this is the paramount importance of having more clinical objective new eyes deal with the transition out of Bo, Vlad, Jano, Kooch era this year and next.

 

I feel pretty neutral on Shapiro. If he stays, cool. He’s done impressive stuff for the org in the renos, player development complex and convincing Rogers to spend so credit where credit is due. And change is good so maybe it’s time the dynamic duo is broken up and Shapiro works with a different baseball mind.

 

I have no faith in Atkins turning this around or leading the rebuild.

 

 

What I actually think will happen is the worst of all worlds. Nobody will go except JS. They will 2017 it and try and milk a withering bunch to death trying to gloss over the situation and keep the new renos full, and the appearance of success. I think this team will still WIN 85 games or close to it - in other words half pregnant between "competitive" and teetering on a rebuild.

 

This is the worst case scenario and I hope you’re wrong

[Brownie19]

Arjun Nimmala looks like he sucks. I understand he was raw, but looks like he sucks

 

This horrible FO must have already ruined him.

[AMS528]

Arjun Nimmala looks like he sucks. I understand he was raw, but looks like he sucks

 

He's the youngest player in that league. He's struggled a bit, but this is beyond early for any judgement given his age.

[Brownie19]

What I actually think will happen is the worst of all worlds. Nobody will go except JS. They will 2017 it and try and milk a withering bunch to death trying to gloss over the situation and keep the new renos full, and the appearance of success. I think this team will still WIN 85 games or close to it - in other words half pregnant between "competitive" and teetering on a rebuild.

 

I 100% believe this will be the chosen path. 85 win teams bring fans to the seats and make the team money. I think fans overestimate just how much owners really care about winning the world series. This is board is going to go berserk over these decisions, which will be hilarious. We'll eventually bring in a new GM and we'll sell off whatever we can and we'll all get excited by all our prospects - only to watch most of them become flaming piles of s*** - just like we have with Vlad, Kirk, Pearson, Manoah, DJ Davis, Groshans, Zeuch, Harris, Hoffman, Pentecost, Warmouth, Ricky, Moreno, Snider, JPA, Lawrie, etc.

 

If we try to buy our way out of this - it seem inevitable we'll eventually swing and miss and end up with a Baez, Pujols, etc. situations on our hands. We've seen teams try to build through free agency and it almost always fails....so we should probably drop payroll back to like $80-$100M while we go through this rebuild.

 

Those who hate this FO and what they've done over the past 5 years may soon realize how much more they prefer watching an 85-90 win team that never really "goes for it". s*** will probably get really ugly around here. It might be 2030 by the time we even consider the playoffs again.

[Olerud363]

He's the youngest player in that league. He's struggled a bit, but this is beyond early for any judgement given his age.

 

 

I remember watching the Derek Jeter documentary and Jeter totally sucked as an 18 year old, and it is true. Jeter was at a lower level than Nimmila and sucked hitting .200.

 

Long time ago but I am always interested in the question as to what is the best outcome a player has had when they look like player X.

 

Of course I am sure you can find 100 18 year old short stops who were first or second round draft picks (Tucker Toman cough, Kevin Ahrens cough) and their first 25 games in A ball told you everything you needed to know...

 

Honestly this year sucks, and everything nice is taken away and given to the Orioles. Their Joy is unlimited, their happiness unbounded, yes maybe Holliday is performing bad but they get a Holliday no problem with the 40th pick (Gunnar Henderson) and will probably get 3 more with their first 3 picks...

 

What I am saying is in a world where everyone got a little bit to be happy about, Jays would suck, but Nimilla and Bonilla would be hitting in A-ball giving a bit of joy and hope and box scores to loook at...

 

Instead there are no nice things, probably no nice things for a couple years, when the next happy thing will appear I do not know....

[max silver]

With Vlad and Bo being so bad that nobody even wants the team to extend them, this is the AL San Francisco Giants. There is no core of impact talent in place. Unless the team goes out and gets Juan Soto or something, it probably makes sense to move the remaining vets, clear all payroll commitments, and reload for 2026 and beyond. But its a tough situation because Ross Atkins shouldn't be allowed to oversee the retool. If the team keeps losing, Shapiro needs to earn his pay and properly set the direction of the franchise, which should include replacing the head of baseball ops.

 

It's sad that this entire window never really fully opened and it largely hinged on whether a certain heavyset player developed into the franchise player he was seemingly destined to be. Atkins used to take a ton of heat for not extending his young superstar players, but he may have actually been wise in waiting to see what these two players actually were before signing them to long term mega deals.

[glory]

What I actually think will happen is the worst of all worlds. Nobody will go except JS. They will 2017 it and try and milk a withering bunch to death trying to gloss over the situation and keep the new renos full, and the appearance of success. I think this team will still WIN 85 games or close to it - in other words half pregnant between "competitive" and teetering on a rebuild.

 

This is 100% what will happen. Remember in the deadline of 2017, that was AA’s core. If Shatkins didn’t sell AA’s core at the right time, instead opting to hold them too long and get nothing back for the sake of selling tickets, then I can’t imagine they will trade their own core with any more urgency. Also, Rogers probably doesn't want a tank/rebuild in any scenario, but right after stadium renovations is a pipe dream. On top of all of that, Shapiro will have a year left on his deal after this season. If he’s going to play that out, which I’m positive he will, then he has absolutely no incentive to gut the team for the long term health of the org. He has a much greater incentive to try to win in 2025.

 

I think at absolute most we will see the impending FAs traded. Beyond that, anyone expecting a major tear down is in for disappointment. If anything, Vlad and Bo struggling this badly makes it less likely for the team to get the assets back that would make it worth moving them, so it may not even be the best time.