General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

[Laika]

Vlad's fundamental problem is that his hit tool was overrated by one maybe even two grades as a prospect because his exit velo and bat speed were so good.

 

You can see it in this sweet spot rate on statcast now

[burlingtonbandit]

It could be they're waiting too long to start the swing and ending up taking too many rushed swings instead of smooth ones.

 

I'd also like to know which players are the ones bringing it down. I definitely suspect Springer to be towards the bottom of the list.

 

Edit: just looked it up on Savant, Turner has the slowest average bat speed. Vlad has the highest.

 

For all Jays with 100 swings or more only 2 have above MLB average bat speed. Vlad 75.5, Varsho 73.1. Springer is right at about league average 71.2.

 

The three lowest... Turner, Clement, IKF at 65.4, 66.4 and 67.2 respectively

 

Dropping it the 50 swings....still only Vlad and Varsho are above average.

 

Have to take it all the way down to 25 swings as the bar to get Barger on there just behind Vlad and Vogelbach at 71.4

 

Not surprised on Turner, especially at his age. Goes to show you how good of a hitter he is despite father time catching up.

 

I heard they are going to eventually have bat path/attack angle. I would have to think Varsho would have one of the most inefficient bath paths of anyone on the team, as he does have above average bat speed.

[hanton]

It could be they're waiting too long to start the swing and ending up taking too many rushed swings instead of smooth ones.

 

I'd also like to know which players are the ones bringing it down. I definitely suspect Springer to be towards the bottom of the list.

 

Edit: just looked it up on Savant, Turner has the slowest average bat speed. Vlad has the highest.

 

For all Jays with 100 swings or more only 2 have above MLB average bat speed. Vlad 75.5, Varsho 73.1. Springer is right at about league average 71.2.

 

The three lowest... Turner, Clement, IKF at 65.4, 66.4 and 67.2 respectively

 

Dropping it the 50 swings....still only Vlad and Varsho are above average.

 

Have to take it all the way down to 25 swings as the bar to get Barger on there just behind Vlad and Vogelbach at 71.4

 

nice catch

 

Turner, by matching his swing plane to the plane of the pitch beats anything bat speed has to offer

[MikeM3]

Vlad's fundamental problem is that his hit tool was overrated by one maybe even two grades as a prospect because his exit velo and bat speed were so good.

 

You can see it in this sweet spot rate on statcast now

 

Also hit tool is an antiquated tool category. Scouts basically just use it as a proxy for your ability to put the bat on the ball when you could argue more contact is sometimes bad

[burlingtonbandit]

Vlad's fundamental problem is that his hit tool was overrated by one maybe even two grades as a prospect because his exit velo and bat speed were so good.

 

You can see it in this sweet spot rate on statcast now

 

His numbers as a prospect were really good though so I wouldn't say his grade was overrated at the time, he was striking out less than 10% of the time as a 19 year old in AAA with above average power.

 

His mechanics changed as a big leaguer even from 2021 till now, perhaps it was an injury that cause it but who knows.

[Laika]

His numbers as a prospect were really good though so I wouldn't say his grade was overrated at the time, he was striking out less than 10% of the time as a 19 year old in AAA with above average power.

 

His mechanics changed as a big leaguer even from 2021 till now, perhaps it was an injury that cause it but who knows.

 

Yeah but a super scout might have realized that smashing the ball into the ground isn't really a 70 hit tool

 

It's a hard hit ball but a mishit

 

He probably did that everywhere and hit .350 with 50% groundball rates most of the time

 

He's more of a 50/80 hitter right now. That's raw power of course not game

 

Probably at his peak was 60/80?

[hanton]

Ya he needs to do this. Such a smart hitter. His problem is he is 39 and there is only so much you can do when the bat slows down.

 

His numbers against V weren't great in '23 and they aren't this year either. His wRC+ has dropped to 111 and his WAR to 0.1

 

Yes, JD Martinez is another one with similar mechanics. It also allows them to lift the ball with less effort. Maybe he needs to get into Vladys ear lol - like he needs another voice

[Olerud363]

His numbers as a prospect were really good though so I wouldn't say his grade was overrated at the time, he was striking out less than 10% of the time as a 19 year old in AAA with above average power.

 

His mechanics changed as a big leaguer even from 2021 till now, perhaps it was an injury that cause it but who knows.

 

What the hell else rating are you going to give to a guy who hits .400 at aa as a teenager? He had one season of 80 hit tool performance too right? I mean almost winning a batting title while hitting 48 homers is 80 hit tool.

 

Weird story, at 18, 19 and 22 in the 99.99th percentile of all time performance at that age. At 24 and 25 in like the ... 40th percentile or something?

[Omar]

 

I'm convinced that when I was Biggio's age I think I was a better hitter than he is now.

 

Wrt Vladdy, perhaps it's simply a case of not being able to rise to the level of competition. Being a phenom in Milb but just average Joe at MLB level. It happens.

[BigCecil]

Carlos Santanna, Cal Raleigh and Ryan Mountcastle, please just f*** right off now.

[Omar]

Carlos Santanna, Cal Raleigh and Ryan Mountcastle, please just f*** right off now.

 

I still shudder when I think of all the times Brett Gardner got a big hit or made a great catch whenever we played the Yanks.

[keggy]

Also hit tool is an antiquated tool category. Scouts basically just use it as a proxy for your ability to put the bat on the ball when you could argue more contact is sometimes bad

 

Hit tool is the single best predictor of reaching the major leagues lol

[Laika]

Hit tool is the single best predictor of reaching the major leagues lol

 

It's still antiquated because it does not have a clear and consistent definition and now we are able to finally break it down (and power) into more measurable, objective components like:

 

1. ability to make contact

2. capacity for power (maxEV)

3. swing speed

4. swing length

5. frequency of "squaring up" the baseball defined as "how much exit velocity did you get as a share of how much exit velocity was possible based on your swing speed and the speed of the pitch"

6. frequency of "blasting" the baseball defined as #5 but with with a swing speed minimum (similar to barrels, which are LA with an EV minimum)

 

Like, some scouts probably have defined HIT TOOL as #1 before. Or as #1 with some eyeball scouting of swing speed/length layered in there.

 

But scientifically we should probably consider HIT TOOL to be more like #5. There will be historical examples of guys who swing and miss too much to get classical good hit tool grades, but they square up the baseball more often than not when they do swing... they should be considered to have good hit tools, right!?

 

And then when we combine HIT TOOL with RAW POWER we can sort of measure this through #6.

 

Finally with bat tracking I think we may be able to measure HIT TOOL. The definition that is being measured though will not be exactly congruent with what scouts, or at least all scouts, think of as hit tool.

[wilko]

 

RIP Biggio.

[Carlos Danger]

RIP Biggio.

 

The Twinkies knew that (as do all) , hence the steady diet of high fastballs Jr could not connect with in the playoffs last year.

[Krylian]

 

Wasn't it Keith Law that said Biggio couldn't handle a ML fastball, years and years ago?

[wilko]

Wasn't it Keith Law that said Biggio couldn't handle a ML fastball, years and years ago?

 

He did, but it was an obvious observation.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah but a super scout might have realized that smashing the ball into the ground isn't really a 70 hit tool

 

It's a hard hit ball but a mishit

 

He probably did that everywhere and hit .350 with 50% groundball rates most of the time

 

He's more of a 50/80 hitter right now. That's raw power of course not game

 

Probably at his peak was 60/80?

 

It makes me sad looking at some of his scouting reports

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=504

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/3761-vladimir-guerrero/

 

https://calltothepen.com/2019/02/12/toronto-blue-jays-scouting-report-vladimir-guerrero-jr/

 

https://www.tsn.ca/phillips-an-in-depth-scouting-report-on-vladdy-jr-1.1161877

[Laika]

Wasn't it Keith Law that said Biggio couldn't handle a ML fastball, years and years ago?

 

Yes and he was right.

 

Keith just didn't understand the value of literally not swinging. It turns out that simply staring at pitches go by can be worth something.

 

Also, I bet Biggio looked better on these stats when he was younger. He used to be able to put up ISOs near .200 so he probably had more bat speed at 24/25.

But he is 29 now and past his physical prime. Which was not much to see to begin with because he's a stick bug who obviously has some sort of chronic illness.

[Eat My Shatkins]

So, does Berrios have a bounce back start today or are we just straight up going to get killed?

[G-Snarls]

So, does Berrios have a bounce back start today or are we just straight up going to get killed?

 

He'll be fine but they'll still lose

[glory]

Tonight's 5-9 in the order: Vogelbach, Kirk, IKF, Biggio, Clement.

 

Unless Jansen is hurt, it's criminal that they are not using him at the DH spot. This is going to be a long season folks.

[Orgfiller]

Tonight's 5-9 in the order: Vogelbach, Kirk, IKF, Biggio, Clement.

 

Unless Jansen is hurt, it's criminal that they are not using him at the DH spot. This is going to be a long season folks.

 

Knowing Jansen he's probably nursing some undisclosed injury.

[Laika]

Tonight's 5-9 in the order: Vogelbach, Kirk, IKF, Biggio, Clement.

 

Unless Jansen is hurt, it's criminal that they are not using him at the DH spot. This is going to be a long season folks.

 

ugh biggio

 

the only thing worse than biggio is fat biggio (dv)

[Jays24]

Tonight's 5-9 in the order: Vogelbach, Kirk, IKF, Biggio, Clement.

 

Unless Jansen is hurt, it's criminal that they are not using him at the DH spot. This is going to be a long season folks.

 

Didn't Jansen just pinch hit in the most important spot of yesterday's game? Clearly we know this entire management is full of dumbasses.

[Dick_Pole]

Damn we have the lowest bat speed in the league

 

 

This right here is an indictment that the FO is by no means teeming with analytical geniuses. I know they focused on run prevention. I know they stink at drafting. Ricciardi was both of these things yet never had an offense this putrid. There is absolutely no excuse for a team that supposedly is analytical to be below every team in the league in an advanced metric, including two teams that are clearly rebuilding and might not even win 50 games this year.

 

The extent of the Jays' analytics ability is to pull a hot starter in the 4th inning of a do-or-die playoff game. Atkins needs to go.

[Dick_Pole]

I would love to see some Secret Base or Foolish Baseball level deep dive on front offices. There is something fundamentally wrong with the organization. I bet there is a story here. How can a team that is willing to spend, clearly trying to compete, purports to be progressive, and generally winning on trades and free agent signings be so absolutely terrible at constructing an offensive skill set?

[Laika]

I would love to see some Secret Base or Foolish Baseball level deep dive on front offices. There is something fundamentally wrong with the organization. I bet there is a story here. How can a team that is willing to spend, clearly trying to compete, purports to be progressive, and generally winning on trades and free agent signings be so absolutely terrible at constructing an offensive skill set?

 

Ross Atkins is a charlatan. He is the 100 IQ meme personified.

 

As an Economics major raised in Miami who played professional minor league baseball for five years, he was practically tailor made to schmooze and climb the baseball front office hierarchies.

 

However, like most Economics majors and baseball players, he is full of s*** and gets by on fooling people more than anything. Not scientific, not actually rigorous or interested in the truth. Storyteller.

[MikeM3]

This right here is an indictment that the FO is by no means teeming with analytical geniuses. I know they focused on run prevention. I know they stink at drafting. Ricciardi was both of these things yet never had an offense this putrid. There is absolutely no excuse for a team that supposedly is analytical to be below every team in the league in an advanced metric, including two teams that are clearly rebuilding and might not even win 50 games this year.

 

The extent of the Jays' analytics ability is to pull a hot starter in the 4th inning of a do-or-die playoff game. Atkins needs to go.

 

Because we're not analytical! I've been saying this for 3 years. Atkins is an ex player. Everyone here attached themselves to him because they thought they were getting a holier than though I know better than you GM but they didn't get that.