General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Spanky99]

Cito was ahead of his time. Pull dat ball + created more opportunities for minorities

 

That dude is an ugly man, from both good friends and a work experience... ugly AF.

[Jimcanuck]

That dude is an ugly man, from both good friends and a work experience... ugly AF.

 

Yes Gaston is a POS

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

That dude is an ugly man, from both good friends and a work experience... ugly AF.

 

Keep Cito's name out yo f***ing mouth!

[Spanky99]

Keep Cito's name out yo f***ing mouth!

 

Hi shitstain, lol

[Laika]

Ignoring tonights results and thinking about other stuff...

 

Varsho's reversal is simple a "swing less" success story

 

His swing rate and o-swing rates are the only process stats I see with big improvements but both of those would explain a lot. His BB rate is up of course. Getting lucky too but the patience and swing decision improvements are promising I think.

[Olerud363]

We used to make fun of Cito and other hitting coaches "Pull dat ball" philosophy. In '24, we salute them as oracles, and beg our players to adopt the doctrine.

 

A Cito team .250 .300 with 750 runs scored would be great in this offensive environment. The problem was they were getting out scored by the Red Sox and Yankees by 100+ runs in 2008-2010 and 200 runs 1995-1997.

 

So a Cito team that managed the same hitting in a different offensive environment would be fine, but if the Cito team translated to 2023 levels would be like a .200 hitting team with .270 on base 200 homers and 600 runs.

 

And Vlad used to be able to oppo it to the second deck in right... so not like 'pull dat ball' is the answer, what about oppo it like he used to?

 

 

And Bo 3 homers one to each field

 

 

What happened to that? It's just as much that they aren't hitting for power line to line like they used to. And I think if you look the stats they are just hitting like 60% less long fly balls. Like if you look at Vlad Fly balls over any distance 420 feet, 400, 380, 360 it's 40% less between 2021 and 2023.

[Sorrow]

I’ve been looking into a bunch of players and seeing what their production was like prior to a hand injury like Olerud had suggested. For those that don’t want to dig back through the theory is that guys get hit on the hand, or stepped on or whatever and need to leave a game or stick with the game but don’t miss significant time like Jansen does with hand injuries and sure enough it looks like something might be there. I want to do a lot more digging into it to see if this is actually a possibility but for Jays players the drop in stats is roughly 70 points of slg and 30ish wRC+. I’d gone back to the Eric Hinske era and so far this theory actually may have some merit.

 

Once I actually have time to go through a lot more data and if I find anything I’ll share.

[Brownie19]

Ignoring tonights results and thinking about other stuff...

 

Varsho's reversal is simple a "swing less" success story

 

His swing rate and o-swing rates are the only process stats I see with big improvements but both of those would explain a lot. His BB rate is up of course. Getting lucky too but the patience and swing decision improvements are promising I think.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daulton-varsho-is-cleaning-up-his-process/

 

That article mentions that Varsho's swing decisions actually improved last year, despite the poor results. It also talks about adjustments to the approach angles in his swing. If the swing decisions continue to improve, that's probably HUGE for Varsho moving forward. Positive stuff.

[Brownie19]

We used to make fun of Cito and other hitting coaches "Pull dat ball" philosophy. In '24, we salute them as oracles, and beg our players to adopt the doctrine.

 

I don't think anyone makes fun of Cito for his "pull dat ball" philosophy - unless they are complaining that he held back Olerud and Shawn Green because they didn't (or couldn't) buy into that philosophy. It was generally stupid of Cito to try and implement a "one size fits all" approach, instead of letting hitters play to their strengths. I'm sure it helped some hitters, but hurt others.

 

He's just become a meme on here for that philosophy.

[The_DH]

If you remember the outfield corners at exhibition stadium and the wind you understand why you pull dat ball.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's unreal what happened to the Jays offensive players.

 

You go back to 2022, they had one of the top offenses in the league, the bullpen was still a bit weak and the defense was awful.

 

They traded LGJ and Teo to add Swanson and Varsho. On the face of it that should have been just fine, I mean in 2022 they had 9 regulars who were 115 wRC+ or better.

 

As mentioned they traded Teo (130 wRC+) and LGJ (115 wRC+)

 

They still had:

 

Jansen 141 wRC+

Springer 133 wRC+

Vlad 133 wRC+

Bo 130 wRC+

Kirk 129 wRC+

Merrifield 120 wRC+

Chapman 118 wRC+

 

 

And they even had Espinal with 100 wRC+ and Biggio with 97 wRC+

Plus they brought in Varsho who had a 107 wRC+

 

Then in 2023 with one of the best pitching staffs and defense in baseball the same 7 hitters:

 

Bichette 125 wRC+

Vlad 118 wRC+

Jansen 116 wRC+

Chapman 110 wRC+

Springer 104 wRC+

Kirk 96 wRC+

Merrifield 93 wRC+

 

Then returning depth pieces saw Espinal 80 wRC+, Biggio 103 wRC+ and newly acquired Varsho dropped to 85 wRC+

 

Every single f***ing one of them dropped dramatically except Biggio who remained around league average.

 

That team should have been a 100 win team but the hitters all forgot how to hit at the exact same time? What gives?

 

And now this year it's getting even worse.

[RustyTrombone]

We really got Space Jam'd and had all our star players talent stolen. Now the question is who stole it? Guillermo Martinez? Don Mattingly? The Mariners?

[Eat My Shatkins]

We really got Space Jam'd and had all our star players talent stolen. Now the question is who stole it? Guillermo Martinez? Don Mattingly? The Mariners?

 

I said in the other thread it was Mattingly. Career Yankee, what were they thinking. Obvious double agent.

[MikeM3]

It's unreal what happened to the Jays offensive players.

 

You go back to 2022, they had one of the top offenses in the league, the bullpen was still a bit weak and the defense was awful.

 

They traded LGJ and Teo to add Swanson and Varsho. On the face of it that should have been just fine, I mean in 2022 they had 9 regulars who were 115 wRC+ or better.

 

As mentioned they traded Teo (130 wRC+) and LGJ (115 wRC+)

 

They still had:

 

Jansen 141 wRC+

Springer 133 wRC+

Vlad 133 wRC+

Bo 130 wRC+

Kirk 129 wRC+

Merrifield 120 wRC+

Chapman 118 wRC+

 

 

And they even had Espinal with 100 wRC+ and Biggio with 97 wRC+

Plus they brought in Varsho who had a 107 wRC+

 

Then in 2023 with one of the best pitching staffs and defense in baseball the same 7 hitters:

 

Bichette 125 wRC+

Vlad 118 wRC+

Jansen 116 wRC+

Chapman 110 wRC+

Springer 104 wRC+

Kirk 96 wRC+

Merrifield 93 wRC+

 

Then returning depth pieces saw Espinal 80 wRC+, Biggio 103 wRC+ and newly acquired Varsho dropped to 85 wRC+

 

Every single f***ing one of them dropped dramatically except Biggio who remained around league average.

 

That team should have been a 100 win team but the hitters all forgot how to hit at the exact same time? What gives?

 

And now this year it's getting even worse.

 

Coaching and processes not keeping up. Plain for anyone to see. When you employ a guy who can't even use a computer to run your offence you're just bad, end of story.

 

I don't care if you hit on 7 out of 10 one year deals. None of it will matter eventually if you can't set up a Trajekt machine and program your hitters to line up their A swings with that night's starter.

 

We have like a top 5 payroll and have hitting profiles of like Oakland and Washington. Slap hit oppo dog s*** that you find off the scrap heap.

[BCZ]

Our team suck .. thanks to Guerrero in particular.

[L54]

Coaching and processes not keeping up. Plain for anyone to see. When you employ a guy who can't even use a computer to run your offence you're just bad, end of story.

 

I don't care if you hit on 7 out of 10 one year deals. None of it will matter eventually if you can't set up a Trajekt machine and program your hitters to line up their A swings with that night's starter.

 

We have like a top 5 payroll and have hitting profiles of like Oakland and Washington. Slap hit oppo dog s*** that you find off the scrap heap.

 

Ya but last year we had the 7th highest wRC+ does that mean nothing to you???

[Brownie19]

Ya but last year we had the 7th highest wRC+ does that mean nothing to you???

 

You say that like it's a bad thing.

[mikepelfrey]

I said in the other thread it was Mattingly. Career Yankee, what were they thinking. Obvious double agent.

 

Mattingly can’t hit for them, it’s not his fault Bichette and Vlad think they already know it all. Even after his back injury stole his power, he still had a good batting average and on base ability. And that was playing in great pain.

 

Don’t slander an all time great just because we have players who think they are too good to learn

[Masterbather]

Mattingly can’t hit for them, it’s not his fault Bichette and Vlad think they already know it all. Even after his back injury stole his power, he still had a good batting average and on base ability. And that was playing in great pain.

 

Don’t slander an all time great just because we have players who think they are too good to learn

 

We have no idea if Mattingly is any good as a coach. Great players don't necessarily make for great coaches. But I'm beyond blaming coaches and expecting players to suddenly change. We all knew this wasn't going to be a great team coming into this year and we all knew that we were going to struggle offensively and here we are.

[hanton]

We have no idea if Mattingly is any good as a coach. Great players don't necessarily make for great coaches. But I'm beyond blaming coaches and expecting players to suddenly change. We all knew this wasn't going to be a great team coming into this year and we all knew that we were going to struggle offensively and here we are.

 

we actually do check his record with the Marlins

[Spanky99]

Can our Offense please wake the f*** up, asking for a friend...

[Stangstag]

Can our Offense please wake the f*** up, asking for a friend...

 

I dont think its gonna happen bro. We were waiting and waiting all season last year and it never really happened.

[Omar]

Teoscar Hernandez on the difference between the way the Dodgers prep for games versus the "other" teams he has played for:

 

“The way they prepare their games and all the plans and all that stuff, it's a little different than the ones that I've been with,” Hernandez explained. “That makes a difference when you’re going to play games.”

[Eat My Shatkins]

Mattingly can’t hit for them, it’s not his fault Bichette and Vlad think they already know it all. Even after his back injury stole his power, he still had a good batting average and on base ability. And that was playing in great pain.

 

Don’t slander an all time great just because we have players who think they are too good to learn

 

It's a f***ing joke you imbecile.

 

Did you actually think I was serious?

 

SMFH

[Olerud363]

Teoscar Hernandez on the difference between the way the Dodgers prep for games versus the "other" teams he has played for:

 

“The way they prepare their games and all the plans and all that stuff, it's a little different than the ones that I've been with,” Hernandez explained. “That makes a difference when you’re going to play games.”

 

Modern baseball is a massive proprietary war of game planning and counter game planning. As fans we can't know exactly what each teams plan is because by design they are keeping it secret from the other teams (and thus the fans).

 

All we can is look at results and patterns.

 

It should be obvious to everyone that the Jays hitters have been solved and neither the coaches nor the players have any counter strategy. Whether it is bad coaching, or players who are not receptive to coaching or players who not have the minds to be coached that I do not know.

 

The silver lining and one small ray of hope is that perhaps the new crew coming up have the minds to be coached and strategize... Barger, Schneider, Orelvis, Horwitz, Clemente, give them all 700 PAs and find out!

[Olerud363]

Mattingly can’t hit for them, it’s not his fault Bichette and Vlad think they already know it all. Even after his back injury stole his power, he still had a good batting average and on base ability. And that was playing in great pain.

 

Don’t slander an all time great just because we have players who think they are too good to learn

 

 

Actually Mattingly peaked at 160 wRC+ in 1986, but was an average hitter between 1990 and 1995... He was like hitting .290 with 9 homers in a game that had transitioned to big time power with big time average so hit .290 with 9 homers though looking respectable paled with the true greats like Frank Thomas (like .350 .450 .600 with 40 homers )

 

Also keep in mind that Olerud was out-performing Mattingly from 90-95 however Cito thought Olerud needed to be sat down for Jacob Brumfield.

 

Thus 1990s Mattings is below Jacob Brumfield, which maybe is why all the Jays hitters are hitting like Jacob Brumfield. Maybe Cito is still behind the scenes giving them the same hitting tips he gave Brumfield.

[BCZ]

The window is now closed for jays and leafs fans for many many years

[BigCecil]

Coaching and processes not keeping up. Plain for anyone to see. When you employ a guy who can't even use a computer to run your offence you're just bad, end of story.

 

I don't care if you hit on 7 out of 10 one year deals. None of it will matter eventually if you can't set up a Trajekt machine and program your hitters to line up their A swings with that night's starter.

 

We have like a top 5 payroll and have hitting profiles of like Oakland and Washington. Slap hit oppo dog s*** that you find off the scrap heap.

 

Its not a video game or a fantasy league. The FO is responsible for roster construction, drafting and development. How much weight they put on nerd projections is their call. Any business that just blames their employees (players and coaches) for "under performance" without taking full accountability is doomed.

 

I know what Steamer projected was going to happen but who really thinks making a bet to roll out Kirk, Springer and Vlad again would resurrect this offense to score more runs? and yeah I know what their team wRC+ was last year and this season.

 

JT was a good piece who may over perform his 105 projection, but they spent resources elsewhere as a luxury tax team, and failed to close other targets they pursued. Sucks. But in business, coffee is for closers and this isn't the try league.

 

We hoped they would bring us a sustainable winner. So far they have brought us sustainable competitive luxury tax mediocrity.

 

Also, and I have to keep reminding myself of this during this skid, its only April and by the end of all this the FO might look like geniuses. And if so, great.

[Sorrow]

I don’t have twitter but Joe Siddal put a side by side video up of Guerrero in 2021 and in 2024 and the swing is so drastically different.

 

Weight transfer in the lower half is different, bat path to the zone has become slow and long, hand setup is different. To me it looks like someone compensating physical issues like a leg injury that didn’t heal 100% or a hand injury that has sapped strength, with the knee issues he’s had and the wrist issues I wonder if a lot of not all of Guerreros production problems are because his body is not capable of doing what he did prior to 2023.

 

It’s similar to Bichette, Bichette has looked different at the plate post his leg injury. He doesn’t look as explosive with the swing and it looks like he’s struggling to bring the bat into the zone with speed like we’ve seen in the past.

[DigitalRock]

Steib is always posting on twitter how bichette and Vlad pull their head off the ball