Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[connorp]

Yikes. .553 OPS in 127 ABs against LHP. Will make for late inning decisions in key games

[Jimcanuck]

A lot has been said already, so just touching on main objective points.

 

Purely from a roster construction perspective, this is probably the most perfect possible fit outside of getting someone like Ohtani. Varsho is a legit everyday player who is overstretched as a fulltime C, but can easily handle backup duty. This has cascading effects on the roster, as you effectively remove all limitations on Kirk DHing. The team now can and should pinch run for Kirk aggressively in close games. This is normally a trivial factor, but Kirk is so slow that pinch running Merrifield, Biggio, or Kiermaier will add real value over the course of a season. This also makes late inning defensive C replacement feasible during blowouts which we almost never did last year. I don't put a lot of stock in handedness, but he is a LHH that can play every day, which the front office has desperately sought.

 

People clearly have a problem with Varsho's offensive production, which is fair. He's being compared to Grichuk. His bat could be a liability, and he's borderline unplayable against LHP. With that said, he is a great athlete with that power-speed-defense combo that scouts love. I think he'll age better than someone like Grichuk and has a much better chance of breaking out offensively. Young Jayson Werth coming up as a catcher comes to mind as a best case scenario.

 

With all that said, Varsho's present value is almost entirely in his defense, which is elite. I'm not sure people appreciate how much better Varsho is over someone like Gurriel. This makes his floor super high even if he doesn't break out offensively. In a fantasy world, you could imagine a scenario for the Jays where basically every position on the field is gold glove calibre except shortstop.

 

Varsho replaces Gurriel who is a league average player on a cheap contract for 1 year and isn't worth a QO for draft compensation. To me Gurriel is a non-factor in this trade.

 

Losing Moreno is brutal. His absolute ceiling is a gold glove C with at least an above average MLB bat, so basically a perennial allstar. He's making the league minimum which is going to hurt the team more than you think moving forward. Even if he doesn't reach his potential, it's going to be hard for Moreno to be a total bust.

 

With the farm system wrecked and payroll maxed out, this is undoubtedly a move to go for a championship within the Guerrero window. This is the type of deal that might look bad in 5 years, but there is huge variance based on how both Varsho and Moreno develop.

 

Good post, but the farm system is not wrecked. It would reasonably be ranked 15-20 in MLB with a lot of interesting talent in the lower levels.

 

Moving Moreno does not equate depleting the farm for win now. It's still very much a team and system built for sustained winning.

[Jays24]

I would shocked if Varsho ever catches a game with the Jays. Unless it was an emergency situation. It just wouldn’t make much sense. They brought him in play Outfield very well and hit bombs from the left side.

 

Ya but having him on the roster as someone who can play there in emergency situations is exactly the flexibility that would allow other moves to win games.

[Jays24]

Yikes. .553 OPS in 127 ABs against LHP. Will make for late inning decisions in key games

 

You gotta stack righties that can bash lefties behind him. That will make other managers think twice about going to the bullpen against him.

 

If he bats 6th or lower then we are screwed every time because we also got KK and Biggio that other teams would want to bring a lefty in for.

[Spanky99]

To be clear he's a fair bit below average as a C. We won't see him there very much.

 

Anywhere from 10-20 starts barring injury, our flexibility and depth is sexy AF. Good deal by the Birds, pumped for this season. Few more things to do, but it's looking good.

[Carlos Danger]

I mean. I think the hope was #1 prospect would get you something without warts. Maybe another prospect back like Jordan Walker. I’m sure they were trying for something different and circled back to this deal. Projections have him as a 3 WAR OF and controllable for multiple years, so there’s stuff to like and the hope is they do something with the payroll flexibility .. just underwhelming in the here and now

 

Jordan Walker has had huge K issues and is not proven. Varsho has only been getting better on the biggest stage on a crap team.

[BTS]

Jordan Walker has had huge K issues and is not proven. Varsho has only been getting better on the biggest stage on a crap team.

 

I don't think Walker has big K issues. 21.6% at 20 in AA with 70 grade raw power isn't bad at all

[TBJ12]

I would have been happier with the trade if it was Kirk instead of Moreno. I just can’t see Kirk holding up.

 

Look and body image seem to be #1 on your priority list for players.

[connorp]

Jordan Walker has had huge K issues and is not proven. Varsho has only been getting better on the biggest stage on a crap team.

 

Jesus, man. He had a K rate of 21% in a full season at AA as a 20yo. For someone with possible 80 power, I think that’s ok

[Terminator]

Anywhere from 10-20 starts barring injury, our flexibility and depth is sexy AF. Good deal by the Birds, pumped for this season. Few more things to do, but it's looking good.

 

Yeah they will probably just let him soak up the ABs that the Collins and Hineymans got last year. Usually the third Catchers for teams are ass so the 10-20 games he gets there are valuable enough to keep having him catch.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't think Walker has big K issues. 21.6% at 20 in AA with 70 grade raw power isn't bad at all

 

Your right BTS. My info old. I hadn’t checked him out recently.

 

This was prior to last year.

 

His major concerns are in the form of contact hitting and plate discipline. As of right now, he has to make massive leaps to stay north of the Mendoza line, and likely will spend his entire career suffering a high number of strikeouts

[BTS]

connorp and I are going to be insufferable Walker pumpers when Walker mashes 40 dingers

[Carlos Danger]

So for those worried about Varsho and offense. From a Fantasy standpoint, which is offense only.

 

Catcher- Varsho is ranked #2 behind Reamulto in many rankings. If not #2, no lower than 5.

 

CF- Top 15

OF top 20 or 30 depending on which ranking.

 

Plus elite D and multi positional talent.

[Brownie19]

Yeah they will probably just let him soak up the ABs that the Collins and Hineymans got last year. Usually the third Catchers for teams are ass so the 10-20 games he gets there are valuable enough to keep having him catch.

 

That's what I said....he's the backup plan that allows them to play Kirk and Jansen in the same lineup. If somoene gets hurt - surely they would put Varsho back there instead of losing the DH

[Spanky99]

That's what I said....he's the backup plan that allows them to play Kirk and Jansen in the same lineup. If somoene gets hurt - surely they would put Varsho back there instead of losing the DH

 

Sublime flexibility and defense now on this club and it's glorious.

[connorp]

So for those worried about Varsho and offense. From a Fantasy standpoint, which is offense only.

 

Catcher- Varsho is ranked #2 behind Reamulto in many rankings. If not #2, no lower than 5.

 

CF- Top 15

OF top 20 or 30 depending on which ranking.

 

Plus elite D and multi positional talent.

 

I actually checked to see if you had him in one, or both. It’s both lol

[BTS]

That's what I said....he's the backup plan that allows them to play Kirk and Jansen in the same lineup. If somoene gets hurt - surely they would put Varsho back there instead of losing the DH

 

It really is a meaningful benefit. Not to mention having him as the backup catcher to start 2-3 times a week if/when Kirk or Jansen get hurt. He’s a unique player that benefits the team in ways that aren’t necessarily obvious

[G-Snarls]

Feels like a deal where we normally get a prospect back at the lower levels in addition to the major leaguer

 

Is 6M in payroll reduction enough to counteract that?

[Captain_Obvious]

Feels like a deal where we normally get a prospect back at the lower levels in addition to the major leaguer

 

Is 6M in payroll reduction enough to counteract that?

 

Yes. The deal looks fair as it is.

[connorp]

Feels like a deal where we normally get a prospect back at the lower levels in addition to the major leaguer

 

Is 6M in payroll reduction enough to counteract that?

 

Yeah seems pretty clear Jays wanted that over something else. Really doubtful AZ sought out LG, a 29 yo declining OF taking ABs in a contract year for him, when AZ isn’t expected to compete

 

It was the kicker the Jays apparently wanted instead of the lotto prospect

[Laika]

Nah

 

Gurriel isn’t worth much of anything but he’s still a small asset

[Jimcanuck]

Nah

 

Gurriel isn’t worth much of anything but he’s still a small asset

 

True, but they may have wanted Vladdy less distracted by goofballs.

[John_Havok]

I don't think Pham is a great fit for this organization given the amount of value placed on character and Pham's various violence related issues.

 

Yeah. Pollack better

[Laika]

True, but they may have wanted Vladdy less distracted by goofballs.

 

Sure but they still wouldn't have to dump Lourdes. They could have easily traded him for a B prospect or RP or something.

 

Arizona clearly wanted him, for whatever reason. They think they can compete for the NL Wild Card this year.

[Captain_Obvious]

Sure but they still wouldn't have to dump Lourdes. They could have easily traded him for a B prospect or RP or something.

 

Arizona clearly wanted him, for whatever reason. They think they can compete for the NL Wild Card this year.

 

B prospect? Would you give a B prospect to pat Gurriel 6M for 2023? I wouldn't.

[Laika]

B prospect? Would you give a B prospect to pat Gurriel 6M for 2023? I wouldn't.

 

1.5 projected WAR, that's worth a bit more than his $5.4M salary

 

I'm just talking about some 40 FV prospect barely inside a team's top 20. Those guys are only worth a few million.

[TheHurl]

Wow, people are really underselling Varsho’s offensive potential. He’s not really comparable to Kiermaier.

 

First off, Varsho’s offensive baseline is higher. 106 wRC+ last year, and that is with the shift. His baseline going forward should be around 110-115 wRC+ with the shift restrictions. That’s basically Kiermaiers career high. Then you add the fact that he’s still 26, has less than 1500 PA’s in the majors, is a former top prospect, and had a .899 OPS in the minors with a 15% k-rate, and you’re looking at a potentially superstar level player if he improves offensively.

 

Like if he just improves a little and gets to 120 wRC+ (very possible) coupled with his defense, he’s EASILY a 6-7 WAR player.

 

To add to this. Because it is such a good run scoring environment people seem to forget that Chase Field suppresses home runs. Varsho’s road slugging percentage was .475. A 120 wRC+ is not that out of the question.

[Solaxys]

To add to this. Because it is such a good run scoring environment people seem to forget that Chase Field suppresses home runs. Varsho’s road slugging percentage was .475. A 120 wRC+ is not that out of the question.

 

 

KK + Varsho just drastically boosted our baserunning metric in the 2023 stolen base meta, that's super cool.

[Captain_Obvious]

1.5 projected WAR, that's worth a bit more than his $5.4M salary

 

I'm just talking about some 40 FV prospect barely inside a team's top 20. Those guys are only worth a few million.

 

The 9? M per WAR formula works above a certain threshold. There are tons of 1 WAR position players you can get at league minimum.

[Dagagad]

I like but dont love this trade. I really think that last year is moreno last year was first year after hand injury. I think he will mash this year.

 

You have to give up good players to get good players, though.