Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Captain_Obvious]

Good luck with Jansen producing 5 war, cause Moreno aint gonna cut it.

 

edit: don't forget Jansen is brittle. When was the last time he had a healthy season? Never?

 

Jansen 400 ABs and Moreno 300 ABs should produce 7 WAR comfortably.

[Captain_Obvious]

I don't see the D-Bags doing that trade. Varsho can play C as is, so no real point in moving him for a similarly talented C. Varsho just happens to be so damn good in CF that they are going to move him there mostly full time. I'm not even sure how much interest they'd have in Kirk. Between Varsho and Carson Kelly they aren't exactly in dire straights at the position and it's not like they have excess pitching to move.

 

You might be able to pull it off if you're a con artist like AA.

[Spanky99]

Who says no?

 

[Stangstag]

Who says no?

 

 

If im AZ I don’t see a point in diminishing Gallen’s value by bundling him with Bumgarner.

 

Gallen straight up for Moreno seems fair

[Jimcanuck]

Yes, I don't think Arizona has a money issue. Bumgarner likely there to stay

[Solaxys]

We have enough f***in reclamation projects here in Toronto; lets not add another in Bumgarner.

 

I think if DBacks are thinking of competing next year (or even 2024), they will bite for Kirk. If they are creating a model for 2025+, prolly not - cause they can train Varsho to C to ease up on the OF depth if not have other internal option pop up showing promise.

 

Kirk has a lot of value (I think more than Jansen tbh even though the results this year show otherwise) simply because of his K-BB ratio which is elite af and will never depreciate. And he is still super young.

DBacks/Cards will definitely go for that kind of bat + control (I mean, most teams without strong prospect catchers would)

[Jimcanuck]

I'm down with Kirk for Alek Thomas and Jameson

[Brownie19]

I tried to make something fair for both sides and realistic. You don't really like it which is fair but Laika doesn't think the Astros would really like it. That combined with the Trade Simulator score tells me it's at least fair enough to be within the realm of possibility. As for your comments on the players in question I think that's all pretty fair.

 

-RP is volatile but Abreu has a lot of control left and he looks like a shutdown late inning guy. Everyone constantly talking about swing and miss and this would do it about as good as we could expect.

-Urquidy is solid but he's hitting arb so will be more expensive and not providing as much surplus value. But still, this team desperately needs a #4 SP right now.

-Meyers is kind of a throw in but he has some potential after an injury riddled year. His defense looks really really good and the bat isn't a total zero.

 

Losing Jansen sucks but it's only 2 years of control left on him and we've got a 4 WAR Catcher and a Top 5 prospect to replace him.

 

I hear you Term. It's all good man. This truly is a realistic trade for both teams. I just don't love it at first glance. Perhaps Urquidy has more upside than I realize.

[Captain_Obvious]

We have enough f***in reclamation projects here in Toronto; lets not add another in Bumgarner.

 

I think if DBacks are thinking of competing next year (or even 2024), they will bite for Kirk. If they are creating a model for 2025+, prolly not - cause they can train Varsho to C to ease up on the OF depth if not have other internal option pop up showing promise.

 

Kirk has a lot of value (I think more than Jansen tbh even though the results this year show otherwise) simply because of his K-BB ratio which is elite af and will never depreciate. And he is still super young.

DBacks/Cards will definitely go for that kind of bat + control (I mean, most teams without strong prospect catchers would)

 

Kirk has more value than Jansen because he has more years of control. Jansen is probably the better player short-term. I would not be looking to trade Kirk if Moreno was not around to maintain our great long-term C outlook. This is truly a unique situation where a team has 3 potentially top 10 MLB catchers.

[Captain_Obvious]

I'm down with Kirk for Alek Thomas and Jameson

 

Alek Thomas + something good might be interesting. Jameson worries me though. I am doing stat scouting and he sucked at AAA where he spent most of the year in 2022. He is 25 already.

[The Iceman]

Hell no to sell low on Gurriel

 

He's prime rebound material

 

Teo a different matter, looking at his career numbers 2021 may have been his high water mark, and 2022 is closer to what we can expect going forward on the wrong side of 30

 

Teo is a 2 time silver slugger award winner, a team like Florida would give up a great pitching piece for him any day of the week.

He is 4 days the wrong side of 30. Has a few productive seasons ahead.

[Jimcanuck]

Teo is a 2 time silver slugger award winner, a team like Florida would give up a great pitching piece for him any day of the week.

He is 4 days the wrong side of 30. Has a few productive seasons ahead.

 

No, Florida would not. Teo is a free agent after the 2024 season and the Marlins are unlikely to be competitive before then.

 

Unless by great pitching piece you mean someone like Elieser Hernandez

 

As my post said, going forward we can expect more seasons like 2022 from Teo, fairly meh for a corner outfielder

[Solaxys]

I'd not trade Teo - dude, despite all his faults, has a lot of impact on this team wrt run production, slugging and speed on bases. We also don't know how much of the fielding issue this year was due to all the leg injuries.

If we can't extend him cause he's too expensive, that's fine, let him walk after a QO (and hopefully we get a comp pick), but there's no way we should trade him if we intend to compete next year.

 

Of the two, Gurriel should be the one to let go (if we are giving up outfielders) - if his stance change is something he is sticking with, I don't know how much value another contact bat is really going to net us over someone like Teo who can alter games by himself, thanks to his power.

[Spanky99]

We have enough f***in reclamation projects here in Toronto; lets not add another in Bumgarner.

 

I think if DBacks are thinking of competing next year (or even 2024), they will bite for Kirk. If they are creating a model for 2025+, prolly not - cause they can train Varsho to C to ease up on the OF depth if not have other internal option pop up showing promise.

 

Kirk has a lot of value (I think more than Jansen tbh even though the results this year show otherwise) simply because of his K-BB ratio which is elite af and will never depreciate. And he is still super young.

DBacks/Cards will definitely go for that kind of bat + control (I mean, most teams without strong prospect catchers would)

 

Mad-Bum would simply be $$$ relief and depth, Gallen/Nelson and Jameson line our SP up for the future... now in saying that. Yeah, it likely wouldn't happen, was just playing with that site.

[Terminator]

You guys won't believe some of the trades I've been cooking up over the past 8 hours. Someone tell me how to get in contact with Ross. He'll s*** his pants when he sees these beauties.

[John_Havok]

I dunno, Varsho is good

 

He is, not really disputing that.

 

But a ton of his value is tied to defense, not the bat, where he's right around league average. This is like trading Kirk for the 2021 version of Espinal if you saw Espinal as a starting SS and needed one - elite D and was on pace for 4+ WAR with even above average bat. Now the value from the bat between Espinal and Varsho is very different, Varsho has power, swings and misses a lot and chases alot. Espinal doesnt hit for power, but sprays it around, contact guy. If you had the belief that Varsho was going to take leaps forward with the bat and step more into a 120 wRC+ range ... different story, though I'm not seeing much in his profile from this season that makes me think that kind of improvement is imminent.

 

Would people really be lining up to trade Kirk for 2021 Espinal if the area of need was SS rather and the OF ?? I doubt that. As much as it makes sense in a WAR for WAR situation, it's not really necessary to give up well above average bats to get well above average defense in return. Rightly or wrongly, defense is and always has been cheaper to get via trade and free agency.

[Laika]

He is, not really disputing that.

 

But a ton of his value is tied to defense, not the bat, where he's right around league average. This is like trading Kirk for the 2021 version of Espinal if you saw Espinal as a starting SS and needed one - elite D and was on pace for 4+ WAR with even above average bat. Now the value from the bat between Espinal and Varsho is very different, Varsho has power, swings and misses a ton. Espinal doesnt hit for power, but sprays it around, contact guy. If you had the belief that Varsho was going to take leaps forward with the bat and step more into a 120 wRC+ range ... different story, though I'm not seeing much in his profile from this season that makes me think that kind of improvement is imminent.

 

Would people really be lining up to trade Kirk for 2021 Espinal if the area of need was SS rather and the OF ?? I doubt that. As much as it makes sense in a WAR for WAR situation, it's not really necessary to give up well above average bats to get well above average defense in return. Rightly or wrongly, defense is and always has been cheaper to get via trade and free agency.

 

But Varsho has physical tools

Was a highly touted prospect

And was just as good in 2021

 

7 WAR in 1000 career PA for Varsho

 

he's real!

 

look, Daulton Varsho is a sick player. How many catchers slash centrefielders have there EVER been? He's a dual threat, five tool dude. Well, four tool dude... not sure if the hit tool is amazing. The K rate is fine but getting close to concerning. The AVG is low. So maybe a fringe average hit tool.

 

Which is all to say that I would be shocked if Arizona would even consider the swap believe it or not. They probably LOVE Varsho and consider him a bit of a unicorn. He would be like, Bo Bichette for them.

[Brownie19]

He is, not really disputing that.

 

But a ton of his value is tied to defense, not the bat, where he's right around league average. This is like trading Kirk for the 2021 version of Espinal if you saw Espinal as a starting SS and needed one - elite D and was on pace for 4+ WAR with even above average bat. Now the value from the bat between Espinal and Varsho is very different, Varsho has power, swings and misses a ton. Espinal doesnt hit for power, but sprays it around, contact guy. If you had the belief that Varsho was going to take leaps forward with the bat and step more into a 120 wRC+ range ... different story, though I'm not seeing much in his profile from this season that makes me think that kind of improvement is imminent.

 

Would people really be lining up to trade Kirk for 2021 Espinal if the area of need was SS rather and the OF ?? I doubt that. As much as it makes sense in a WAR for WAR situation, it's not really necessary to give up well above average bats to get well above average defense in return. Rightly or wrongly, defense is and always has been cheaper to get via trade and free agency.

 

I agree with this. No thank you to Kirk for Varsho.

[John_Havok]

But Varsho has physical tools

Was a highly touted prospect

And was just as good in 2021

 

7 WAR in 1000 career PA for Varsho

 

he's real!

 

look, Daulton Varsho is a sick player. How many catchers slash centrefielders have there EVER been? He's a dual threat, five tool dude. Well, four tool dude... not sure if the hit tool is amazing. The K rate is fine but getting close to concerning. The AVG is low. So maybe a fringe average hit tool.

 

LIke I said, if management thinks there's a real uptick in the bat lurking there, I would do it and be okay with it. I just generally dont like trading great offense for great defense because history has taught us we dont need to do that. Can figure out a way to improve the D without giving up Kirk

[Captain_Obvious]

LIke I said, if management thinks there's a real uptick in the bat lurking there, I would do it and be okay with it. I just generally dont like trading great offense for great defense because history has taught us we dont need to do that. Can figure out a way to improve the D without giving up Kirk

 

Varsho is decent offensively and has been for a while. If he improves just a little bit offensively (for example, walk a little bit more and return to 2021 rates), he would probably become untouchable.

[Olerud363]

LIke I said, if management thinks there's a real uptick in the bat lurking there, I would do it and be okay with it. I just generally dont like trading great offense for great defense because history has taught us we dont need to do that. Can figure out a way to improve the D without giving up Kirk

 

This thread is really just about how you think Kirk's body type will age near term. It sounds like some people think Kirk has already peaked.

 

I wouldn't trade him. Seems to me he got tired and stopped hitting for power second half. Yeah, looked it up and he had like a .320 slugging in the second half. Was that random or was he getting tired and beatup?

 

Only 23, I think there might be even more in his bat. Like batting title with 20 homers. Or do you guys think the May/June Kirk the fluky one?

[John_Havok]

This thread is really just about how you think Kirk's body type will age near term. It sounds like some people think Kirk has already peaked.

 

I wouldn't trade him. Seems to me he got tired and stopped hitting for power second half. Yeah, looked it up and he had like a .320 slugging in the second half. Was that random or was he getting tired and beatup?

 

Only 23, I think there might be even more in his bat. Like batting title with 20 homers. Or do you guys think the May/June Kirk the fluky one?

 

I dont know about thinking that he's peaked as the reason fro trading him, just that Jansen/Moreno would be more than satisfactory as a catching tandem, so why not strike while the iron is hot and trade a very valuable chip to fill other areas of need if you can. That's probably more the thought process.

 

As for whether there is more in the bat... Yeah there could be. His batted ball profile is pretty excellent, so I dont think a 135-140 wRC+ is out of the realm of possibility which is liekly where he would be with 20 HR and a similar triple slash as 2022. I dont know that his average will ever contend for the title given his slowness of foot.

[Spanky99]

I dont know about thinking that he's peaked as the reason fro trading him, just that Jansen/Moreno would be more than satisfactory as a catching tandem, so why not strike while the iron is hot and trade a very valuable chip to fill other areas of need if you can. That's probably more the thought process.

 

As for whether there is more in the bat... Yeah there could be. His batted ball profile is pretty excellent, so I dont think a 135-140 wRC+ is out of the realm of possibility which is liekly where he would be with 20 HR and a similar triple slash as 2022. I dont know that his average will ever contend for the title given his slowness of foot.

 

I think Kirk was leading the team in infield singles at one point in the summer, or maybe still does...

[John_Havok]

I think Kirk was leading the team in infield singles at one point in the summer, or maybe still does...

 

Probably a volume thing, he hit 50% of his balls in play on the ground. Vlad was 52%.

 

If anything, just like Vlad, his launch angle would need to improve

[Jimcanuck]

This thread is really just about how you think Kirk's body type will age near term. It sounds like some people think Kirk has already peaked.

 

I wouldn't trade him. Seems to me he got tired and stopped hitting for power second half. Yeah, looked it up and he had like a .320 slugging in the second half. Was that random or was he getting tired and beatup?

 

Only 23, I think there might be even more in his bat. Like batting title with 20 homers. Or do you guys think the May/June Kirk the fluky one?

 

.319 BABIP 1st half vs .272 2nd half. For his MLB career his BABIP is .287

 

So yes, probably some luck in the 1st half, IIRC some here commented on lucky hits dropping in

 

Kirk is a bit of an enigma, who knows how he does going forward. He's slow already, and being a catcher, will keep slowing down as soon as next season.

 

Personally I think moving him now is a sell high, but I could be wrong, and I've been wrong before.

[Captain_Obvious]

.319 BABIP 1st half vs .272 2nd half. For his MLB career his BABIP is .287

 

So yes, probably some luck in the 1st half, IIRC some here commented on lucky hits dropping in

 

Kirk is a bit of an enigma, who knows how he does going forward. He's slow already, and being a catcher, will keep slowing down as soon as next season.

 

Personally I think moving him now is a sell high, but I could be wrong, and I've been wrong before.

 

I agree. He is already where people thought he would peak at. 300 avg, 370 OBP, 15 HRs. He even exceeded expectations defensively. I think he will hover around these numbers for the next few years. I would be very surprised if he improves further.

[Brownie19]

 

 

There's absolutely no contest here. You'd be taking Varsho almost exclusively for his defense and speed and like JH said - that's historically not a great idea. Despite the 'solid' results this year, there simply isn't a lot in his bat to get excited about.

[Olerud363]

I dont know about thinking that he's peaked as the reason fro trading him, just that Jansen/Moreno would be more than satisfactory as a catching tandem, so why not strike while the iron is hot and trade a very valuable chip to fill other areas of need if you can. That's probably more the thought process.

 

As for whether there is more in the bat... Yeah there could be. His batted ball profile is pretty excellent, so I dont think a 135-140 wRC+ is out of the realm of possibility which is liekly where he would be with 20 HR and a similar triple slash as 2022. I dont know that his average will ever contend for the title given his slowness of foot.

 

 

For sure. However you don't have to trade Kirk, you just have to consider trading one of them, (or moving Moreno to another position), and I think if Kirk looked like a normal player no one would be wanting to trade him.

 

I am not even saying they are wrong. I think they are wrong, but my bias is just thinking back on guy with medium power, a nice swing, and more walks then Ks and I picture him developing like Olerud or Joe Mauer, even though he doesn't look like them.

 

Another guy I think is similar as a hitter, from a LONG time ago, is John Kruk. He got better and better as he aged and was a great hitter in his early 30s.

 

lol. I am sure I am forgetting all the 23 year olds who popped 15 homers with 65/55 bb/k but went no where... or am I?

[Olerud363]

For sure. However you don't have to trade Kirk, you just have to consider trading one of them, (or moving Moreno to another position), and I think if Kirk looked like a normal player no one would be wanting to trade him.

 

I am not even saying they are wrong. I think they are wrong, but my bias is just thinking back on guy with medium power, a nice swing, and more walks then Ks and I picture him developing like Olerud or Joe Mauer, even though he doesn't look like them.

 

Another guy I think is similar as a hitter, from a LONG time ago, is John Kruk. He got better and better as he aged and was a great hitter in his early 30s.

 

lol. I am sure I am forgetting all the 23 year olds who popped 15 homers with 65/55 bb/k but went no where... or am I?

 

Edgar Martinez is another one. Started late. His first full year was very Kirkish in 1990. Became a monster in his 30s... though who knows how much we can trust the 90s. But still...

 

Just it feels to me guys who have Kirks contact rate and line drive power develop even further... like I said I could be totally wrong because I am forgetting the ones who didn't win batting titles.

[wilko]

Edgar Martinez is another one. Started late. His first full year was very Kirkish in 1990. Became a monster in his 30s... though who knows how much we can trust the 90s. But still...

 

Just it feels to me guys who have Kirks contact rate and line drive power develop even further... like I said I could be totally wrong because I am forgetting the ones who didn't win batting titles.

 

You think Kirk could have the power Martinez had? I can't see him hitting 35+ bombs in a season.