Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Cbert]

There used to be chatter of the Jays lining up with the Reds on a trade.

 

With the Reds apparently wanting to dump salary and the Jays having the ability to take a bad contract (with upside) perhaps there is some deal there?

The Jays are looking to add lefty bats and perhaps they should look at one of those old school mega deals.

 

To the Jays:

 

Luis Castillo is a Berrios type - durable, eats innings - led the league in games started last year - had an abysmal start to the season but otherwise was very good. Controlled through 2024. Arbitration salaries.

 

Joey Votto - If you are going to talk about getting a LH 1b then why not Votto? He is owed $25m each of 2022 and 2023 with a $20m in 2024 (or $7m buyout). He's going to be 38 but his 36 home runs, .375 OBP and .563 slugging is still impressive. From an optics point of view it also helps that he is Canadian and Reds fans on their end would probably be okay with it. (The Jays would be taking a minimum of $57m in commitments)

 

In order to get those prizes, the jays need to take one or both of the following.

 

Mike Moustakas and his -1.0 WAR in 2021 and his below average but not atrocious defence at 3B/2B. He is owed $16m in 2022 and $18m in 2023 whit $20m in 2024 ($4m buyout) So the Jays would be taking a minimum of $38million. Still, he's been a quality player as recently as 2019 and he's another lefty bat.

 

Eugenio Suárez 3B bats right. Huge strikeout guy but still has some upside. Bit Below average defence. He's owed $11,300 in 2022, 2023, 2024 and $15m in 2025 with a $2m buyout. (Jays would take on $35m min).

 

It seems to me that because Votto and Moustakas have shorter commitments their salaries could be absorbed without impacting the signing of Bichete and Vlad.

 

If the Reds are really in salary dump mode they would be dumping $130m on the Jays.

 

Going the other way - you're still going to have to give up a lot because you're getting two very high-quality players in return and two average but hardly terrible players.

 

I think though, that the Jays could offer any number of pretty good players to be enticing enough to get it done without going crazy. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alejandro Kirk, Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson from the on-field roster. Four young cheap quality players

 

From the prospect list - you're probably looking at 1 from our top 10 (Groshans) and 1 from 11-20 - more or less depending on if they're willing to take Grichuk.

 

Big trades usually come out of left field but I think Castillo really bolsters the pitching even more and adding a thumper like Votto from the left side sure would look good. Moustakas and Suarez are overpriced but not black holes.

 

Or you know

 

Sign Correa.

 

I’d definitely love to get me some Castillo! Just not sure about the other three guys and the acquisition cost.

 

If Votto were open to coming here, you’ve got a solid hitter who is getting paid, but is 38. He could fall off a cliff any day. I’d hope that taking Suarez and Mous would pretty much offset the cost of getting him.

 

This would mean we should really only be paying for Castillo if we’re taking on nine figures in contracts. I’d try to keep Gurriel out of that deal since that would create another hole in the lineup that we likely don’t have the money to fill. Maybe sub Hoglund in for Pearson so that we maintain decent starting depth while creating the leagues best rotation after this trade.

[The_DH]

I’d definitely love to get me some Castillo! Just not sure about the other three guys and the acquisition cost.

 

If Votto were open to coming here, you’ve got a solid hitter who is getting paid, but is 38. He could fall off a cliff any day. I’d hope that taking Suarez and Mous would pretty much offset the cost of getting him.

 

This would mean we should really only be paying for Castillo if we’re taking on nine figures in contracts. I’d try to keep Gurriel out of that deal since that would create another hole in the lineup that we likely don’t have the money to fill. Maybe sub Hoglund in for Pearson so that we maintain decent starting depth while creating the leagues best rotation after this trade.

 

We aren't getting Votto, although he would be a top addition. And if we are taking on $38 mill of Moose, we aren't giving up much for Castillo. Also not sure if the Reds would use Castillo to get rid of those contracts. I figure taking on Moose would be the equivalent of giving up Martin (and a bit more) as we did earlier for Berrios. So maybe a 7-10 prospect as well. Not sure if I see the Reds doing this.

[Cbert]

We aren't getting Votto, although he would be a top addition. And if we are taking on $38 mill of Moose, we aren't giving up much for Castillo. Also not sure if the Reds would use Castillo to get rid of those contracts. I figure taking on Moose would be the equivalent of giving up Martin (and a bit more) as we did earlier for Berrios. So maybe a 7-10 prospect as well. Not sure if I see the Reds doing this.

 

Yeah I don’t think they actually would either. Votto has always stated he wouldn’t accept a trade anywhere (though one can hope he’d change his mind to come home). I also don’t see them adding bad contracts to their most valuable trade pieces. Fun big trade idea but not likely.

[Deadpool]

There used to be chatter of the Jays lining up with the Reds on a trade.

 

With the Reds apparently wanting to dump salary and the Jays having the ability to take a bad contract (with upside) perhaps there is some deal there?

The Jays are looking to add lefty bats and perhaps they should look at one of those old school mega deals.

 

To the Jays:

 

Luis Castillo is a Berrios type - durable, eats innings - led the league in games started last year - had an abysmal start to the season but otherwise was very good. Controlled through 2024. Arbitration salaries.

 

Joey Votto - If you are going to talk about getting a LH 1b then why not Votto? He is owed $25m each of 2022 and 2023 with a $20m in 2024 (or $7m buyout). He's going to be 38 but his 36 home runs, .375 OBP and .563 slugging is still impressive. From an optics point of view it also helps that he is Canadian and Reds fans on their end would probably be okay with it. (The Jays would be taking a minimum of $57m in commitments)

 

In order to get those prizes, the jays need to take one or both of the following.

 

Mike Moustakas and his -1.0 WAR in 2021 and his below average but not atrocious defence at 3B/2B. He is owed $16m in 2022 and $18m in 2023 whit $20m in 2024 ($4m buyout) So the Jays would be taking a minimum of $38million. Still, he's been a quality player as recently as 2019 and he's another lefty bat.

 

Eugenio Suárez 3B bats right. Huge strikeout guy but still has some upside. Bit Below average defence. He's owed $11,300 in 2022, 2023, 2024 and $15m in 2025 with a $2m buyout. (Jays would take on $35m min).

 

It seems to me that because Votto and Moustakas have shorter commitments their salaries could be absorbed without impacting the signing of Bichete and Vlad.

 

If the Reds are really in salary dump mode they would be dumping $130m on the Jays.

 

Going the other way - you're still going to have to give up a lot because you're getting two very high-quality players in return and two average but hardly terrible players.

 

I think though, that the Jays could offer any number of pretty good players to be enticing enough to get it done without going crazy. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alejandro Kirk, Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson from the on-field roster. Four young cheap quality players

 

From the prospect list - you're probably looking at 1 from our top 10 (Groshans) and 1 from 11-20 - more or less depending on if they're willing to take Grichuk.

 

Big trades usually come out of left field but I think Castillo really bolsters the pitching even more and adding a thumper like Votto from the left side sure would look good. Moustakas and Suarez are overpriced but not black holes.

 

Or you know

 

Sign Correa.

 

Votto is a massive risk, given that the passage of time is a thing that exists.

If I'm taking on this deal, the prospects I'm sending back are more of the "oh s***, I forgot that guy existed" level.

[The_DH]

Votto is a massive risk, given that the passage of time is a thing that exists.

If I'm taking on this deal, the prospects I'm sending back are more of the "oh s***, I forgot that guy existed" level.

 

Basically Votto is a 3 year commitment, 2x25MM and final year of 20. Not a massive risk. Plus he'd get some more rest as a DH here. Still don't think it would happen. He's retiring as a Red.

[Key22]

I mean these kinds of trades are a lark to think about. You'd think if there is one team Votto would be willing to go to it would be Toronto. The fact that it's Toronto a very good team with a very good chance to win is icing on the cake VS playing out his final days on a team likely going nowhere for the rest of his career.

 

The reason I proposed it is that you're basically out of the contracts after 2 years (paying the buyouts). The trouble with some of the free agents is that you may have to go 5-6 years on them (Freeman).

 

Lourdes' contract expires a year earlier than we thought (the end of 2023) https://jaysjournal.com/2021/11/12/blue-jays-lourdes-gurriel-jrs-contract-changes-things/

 

CBert is correct we create a hole in left that would need to be addressed but corner outfielders are somewhat a dime a dozen.

 

I am a pitching first guy - I really would like the Jays to add one more really good starter to offset the Ryu Decline possibility or Manoah regression or Pearson not being that "can't miss Ace" he was projected to be.

 

I'm not a fan of signing these high risk starters like a Paxton, or Kirby Yates or now looking at Rodon. If there is a way of landing Castillo without shipping out your uppermost top prospects then I'd prefer going that route. Ie, I'll take a Castillo and a Moustakas for $20 million and some prospects over Rodon and $25m for the hope that his iffy arm holds up.

[Abomination]

I mean these kinds of trades are a lark to think about. You'd think if there is one team Votto would be willing to go to it would be Toronto. The fact that it's Toronto a very good team with a very good chance to win is icing on the cake VS playing out his final days on a team likely going nowhere for the rest of his career.

 

I'm pretty sure Votto is on record saying he does NOT want to play for the Jays (nothing to do with the Jays or Canada, but added time commitments it would generate from friends and family). I may be getting him mixed up with someone else though.

[glory]

2022 Rodon ~ 2021 Yates

 

He'll either be 2021 Yates or the off season bargain. The lack of QO makes me think Yates is more likely, but who knows.

 

My guess is the Jays get Kikuchi.

[Jimcanuck]

He'll either be 2021 Yates or the off season bargain. The lack of QO makes me think Yates is more likely, but who knows.

 

My guess is the Jays get Kikuchi.

 

I think they trade for an SP, along with usual depth sigings and ST invites

[Grant77]

He'll either be 2021 Yates or the off season bargain. The lack of QO makes me think Yates is more likely, but who knows.

 

My guess is the Jays get Kikuchi.

 

I think we trade for an upcoming FA that Pete Walker belives in, similar to Matz last season. Joe Ross, Sean Manaea, and Chris Bassitt come to mind.

[John_Havok]

I think we trade for an upcoming FA that Pete Walker belives in, similar to Matz last season. Joe Ross, Sean Manaea, and Chris Bassitt come to mind.

 

Could be, though I don’t think Walker is all that up to date on all the arms across baseball that he thinks are underachievers. His plate is probably full enough with all the arms in the Jays system.

[Jimcanuck]

I think we trade for an upcoming FA that Pete Walker belives in, similar to Matz last season. Joe Ross, Sean Manaea, and Chris Bassitt come to mind.

 

Good choices, Reds and Marlins other potential trade partners.

 

I believe Moustakas will return to being the hitter he was pre-2020, and Jays are well positioned to take on that contract if it means Castillo or Mahle at a prospect discount.

[Grant77]

Could be, though I don’t think Walker is all that up to date on all the arms across baseball that he thinks are underachievers. His plate is probably full enough with all the arms in the Jays system.

 

I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be given video of potential trade targets to study, especially during the lockout where he can't connect with major league pitchers. It sure sounds like they consulted with him before we traded for Robbie Ray.

[Spanky99]

He'll either be 2021 Yates or the off season bargain. The lack of QO makes me think Yates is more likely, but who knows.

 

My guess is the Jays get Kikuchi.

 

That'd be fine.

[The_DH]

That'd be fine.

 

Spanky, which would you prefer: Kikuchi for 3 x $15mm or Matz for 1x$18.5mm?

[Spanky99]

Spanky, which would you prefer: Kikuchi for 3 x $15mm or Matz for 1x$18.5mm?

 

Why are you asking me, just curious? That's all hypothetical, I don't think Kikuchi gets the term or AVV your suggesting, likely 2/26. If he gets 3, I'd think it be more 3/36 or something of that nature. Matz wasn't worth the QO, imo. I'd still take Kikuchi in your scenario, easily. I'm glad Stripling got the deal he did, good for him.

[Jimcanuck]

Why are you asking me, just curious? That's all hypothetical, I don't think Kikuchi gets the term or AVV your suggesting, likely 2/26. If he gets 3, I'd think it be more 3/36 or something of that nature. Matz wasn't worth the QO, imo. I'd still take Kikuchi in your scenario, easily. I'm glad Stripling got the deal he did, good for him.

 

Matz has slightly better projections than Kikuchi. 1/18.4 is a better deal for a team than 3/45, especially for a pitcher, so I'm not sure why you would take the Kikuchi deal.

 

Agreed Kikuchi probably doesn't come close to 3/45 but who knows, there are a lot of teams chasing a few pitchers.

[Spanky99]

Matz has slightly better projections than Kikuchi. 1/18.4 is a better deal for a team than 3/45, especially for a pitcher, so I'm not sure why you would take the Kikuchi deal.

 

Agreed Kikuchi probably doesn't come close to 3/45 but who knows, there are a lot of teams chasing a few pitchers.

 

Hah... I looked at Stripling's numbers, derp. In that case I'd take Matz on a 1 year deal. It's still revisionist history, though. Jays didn't think so, but no one thought the FA class's market would be this much better than thought as well. Don't know why I was thinking of Chicken Strip.

[The_DH]

Hah... I looked at Stripling's numbers, derp. In that case I'd take Matz on a 1 year deal. It's still revisionist history, though. Jays didn't think so, but no one thought the FA class's market would be this much better than thought as well. Don't know why I was thinking of Chicken Strip.

 

I only asked because you mentioned when somebody said we'd probably get Kikuchi that it was fine. I thought we should have tendered Matz and would have been okay if he took the amount and also okay if he didn't (for the draft compensation). Just trying to gauge your interest, nothing more. I figure one year's overpayment is cheaper than Kikuchi risk.

[Jimcanuck]

I only asked because you mentioned when somebody said we'd probably get Kikuchi that it was fine. I thought we should have tendered Matz and would have been okay if he took the amount and also okay if he didn't (for the draft compensation). Just trying to gauge your interest, nothing more. I figure one year's overpayment is cheaper than Kikuchi risk.

 

Exactly why my position in October was to tender Matz. Either a couple of million overpay and a rotation spot nailed down, or draft pick compensation.

 

Now, it is quite possible the Jays will take on a bad contract, like Moustakas, in order to get the SP they need without giving up Moreno. Moustakas 38M vs. a 2M overpay for one year of Matz?

[Spanky99]

Exactly why my position in October was to tender Matz. Either a couple of million overpay and a rotation spot nailed down, or draft pick compensation.

 

Now, it is quite possible the Jays will take on a bad contract, like Moustakas, in order to get the SP they need without giving up Moreno. Moustakas 38M vs. a 2M overpay for one year of Matz?

 

Hyperbole.

[Ryu In My House]

I'm pretty sure Votto is on record saying he does NOT want to play for the Jays (nothing to do with the Jays or Canada, but added time commitments it would generate from friends and family). I may be getting him mixed up with someone else though.

 

He is a different man, now. He's always been awesome, but now he knows his time is running out (father time) and he has gone on record as saying he's trying to have as much fun as he can before the party is over. I personally think he would love a trade to the Jays. I mean, can you name a team that seems to have more fun? But this is 100% conjecture.

[max silver]

Exactly why my position in October was to tender Matz. Either a couple of million overpay and a rotation spot nailed down, or draft pick compensation.

 

Now, it is quite possible the Jays will take on a bad contract, like Moustakas, in order to get the SP they need without giving up Moreno. Moustakas 38M vs. a 2M overpay for one year of Matz?

 

How on earth would the Jays ever need to trade Moreno in order to obtain a Steven Matz replacement? The team has already assembled a very strong starting 4 at this point, it's possible that any further starting rotation acquisitions would be back end/reclamation project types at this point.

[Jimcanuck]

How on earth would the Jays ever need to trade Moreno in order to obtain a Steven Matz replacement? The team has already assembled a very strong starting 4 at this point, it's possible that any further starting rotation acquisitions would be back end/reclamation project types at this point.

 

Suspect the Jays are aiming higher than replacement level. But you are right, Moreno wouldn't be moved for pitching.

 

Can totally see a trade for Castillo and Moustakas, with Orelvis headlining the package going the other way.

 

A rotation of Berrios, Castillo, Gausman, Manoah, Ryu is pretty damn nice.

[Ehjays]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/whos-blocking-gabriel-moreno.html

 

Who’s Blocking Gabriel Moreno?

By Darragh McDonald | January 2, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

 

Going into the 2021 season, catcher Gabriel Moreno was ranked as the #8 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system by Baseball America. He finished 2019 playing A-ball, but due to the pandemic wiping out the entire minor leagues in 2020, he had yet to play at the higher levels of the minor leagues.

 

But in the first few months of the 2021 campaign, Moreno’s stock shot straight upwards. He started the season at Double-A and hit eight home runs in 32 games, slashing .373/.441/.651. His strikeout and walk rates were both better than average, coming in at 15.2% and 9.7%, respectively. Unfortunately, a broken thumb derailed him for a few months. He returned in September and played a couple of Complex League games, followed by three Triple-A games. In order to make up for lost time, he went to the Arizona Fall League and got into 22 games there, slashing .329/.410/.494, with an equal number of walks and strikeouts, 13 of each.

 

Baseball America now considers him the #1 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, as well as #8 in all of baseball. Their scouting report highlights his eye for the strike zone, his developing power, his 41% caught stealing rate, with improved blocking and receiving. They predict Moreno, who turns 22 on Valentine’s Day, will be a future all-star who should make his MLB debut in 2022. That means the Blue Jays have a positional crunch on their hands, as Moreno is one of four catchers on the 40-man roster, with the other three all finishing the year with the big league club.

 

Danny Jansen, 26, made a couple of trips to the IL due to hamstring injuries but still got into 70 games in 2021. He hit 11 home runs and slashed .223/.299/.473 for a wRC+ of 105. When combined with positive marks for his defense, he was worth 1.4 wins above replacement in those 70 games, according to FanGraphs.

 

Alejandro Kirk, 23, also spent significant time on the IL and only got into 60 games on the year. He hit .242/.328/.436, with incredible strikeout and walk rates of 11.6% and 10.1%, respectively. His wRC+ of 106 is just a hair ahead of Jansen, but his work on the other side of the ball wasn’t graded as favorably, meaning his fWAR was only 0.7 on the year.

 

With Jansen and Kirk on the opening day roster in 2021, that meant there was no room for Reese McGuire. McGuire, 26, was designated for assignment, as he is out of options. He stayed with the Jays after clearing waivers and was selected back to the roster in May after Kirk went on the IL. Due to both Kirk and Jansen missing time, McGuire eventually got into 78 games, the most of the trio. He hit .253/.310./343 for a wRC+ of 78. Due to solid defensive marks, he was worth 1.3 fWAR on the year.

 

All of this means that the Blue Jays have decisions to make, as they are approaching a situation where they have four MLB-caliber backstops, with most clubs usually only rostering two. The team has had Moreno dabble at third base, as he played one game there at Double-A, which suggests they have at least considered the possibility of carrying three out of this group. That would still leave them with a surplus at some point, though, as none of this foursome is nearing free agency anytime soon. Danny Jansen is the closest to qualifying for the open market, but he still has three years of club control remaining.

 

It’s possible that the club may just want to hold onto all four, at least for the short-term. Last year, they went into spring with Jansen, Kirk and McGuire and just DFA’d McGuire once Opening Day rolled around and all three were healthy. Maybe they will just take the same approach, with Moreno getting more reps in Triple-A until either an injury creates an opening for him or he plays so well that they call him up and try to make the three-catcher scenario work.

 

However, there’s also the catching market to consider. This year’s crop of free agents was fairly limited and many of the stronger options have already been removed, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all have new teams for 2022. For catching-needy teams, the best options available are now older veterans such as Robinson Chirinos and Kurt Suzuki.

 

Even the trade market has been picked over, as Jacob Stallings and Tucker Barnhart have already been shipped this offseason. Willson Contreras has been rumored to be available, especially with the Cubs signing Gomes. But Contreras is turning 30 in a few months and is entering his final year of club control, making him a different type of trade chip than the Jays’ backstops. The Athletics have reportedly considered shopping Sean Murphy. However, their highest priority in the post-lockout period will be moving their players that are closer to free agency than Murphy, who still has four years of team control remaining. Carson Kelly makes some sense as a trade candidate, but that doesn’t seem to be in the Diamondbacks’ plans. Due to that shortage of available options, it’s possible that some team might make the Blue Jays an offer strong enough that they consider subtracting from their depth.

 

Regardless of how it plays out, it seems to be an enviable position for the Blue Jays brass. FanGraphs’ depth charts currently rank the team second at the backstop position, trailing only the Dodgers, ahead of the J.T. Realmuto-led Phillies and the Yasmani Grandal-led White Sox. And that’s even without any contribution from Gabriel Moreno, who should be one of most interesting prospects to watch this year.

[AdamGreenwood]

We're strong at catcher already, and I think Janssen is gonna have a huge breakout this year.

Would love to see Moreno traded for a similarly ranked 2B or 3B.

 

Nolan Gorman would be perfect. The Cardinals are gonna need a new catcher soon, and Arenado is locked up at 3B.

[max silver]

We're strong at catcher already, and I think Janssen is gonna have a huge breakout this year.

Would love to see Moreno traded for a similarly ranked 2B or 3B.

 

Nolan Gorman would be perfect. The Cardinals are gonna need a new catcher soon, and Arenado is locked up at 3B.

 

Instead of trading Moreno it would be easier to just move him to third base. He could also serve as an occasional catcher in that scenario as well.

[John_Havok]

Instead of trading Moreno it would be easier to just move him to third base. He could also serve as an occasional catcher in that scenario as well.

 

It would be easier and ideal. I doubt that he would suck since when he was drafted he played SS, but after 3 years of catching exclusively it wouldn't hurt to get a few hundred innings at 3rd in the minors before anointing him at the big league level.

 

Having someone already in house as a stopgap 3b/2b until they can evaluate his 3b readiness would be ideal. OR, they need to scrap the Moreno 3b idea, bring in someone else for the position, wait until he's fully ready as a catcher and then deal with the catcher problem later.

[Deadpool]

I'm almost tempted to start a thread on this because there's just NO info coming out anywhere, but this should be mentioned somewhere at least...

 

[The_DH]

I'm almost tempted to start a thread on this because there's just NO info coming out anywhere, but this should be mentioned somewhere at least...

 

 

It looks kosher, it's on Sports Illustrated. Looks like a good signing.