Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[L54]

Gotta give Matz the QO. 1/18 is fine for his services. In this SP market, it's pretty good actually. We should all hope he accepts.

 

You have to QO Ray and Semien

 

You do not have to QO Matz

[Spanky99]

You have to QO Ray and Semien

 

You do not have to QO Matz

 

QO'ing Matz is a mistake.

 

He isn't worth it. They can set a deal for far less.

[Dokken]

I’d the supposed board sociopath and I can even say you’re f***ed up. In respect of the rules of the forum, I will not speculate on your race:)

 

Apparently you have no sarcasm meter. By the way: what a class act you are all the way. Just proves my point further about what a swell bunch of guys infest this board.

[Dokken]

You're talking about tipping 5% like it doesn't make you a cheap ass motherf***er.

 

Another class act with zero sense of humor and obviously just looking to take cheap shots, same as the guy who started it that Saskjayfan POS!

 

ETA: I BAN myself before you dickwads can do it SO THERE!!

[L54]

QO'ing Matz is a mistake.

 

He isn't worth it. They can set a deal for far less.

 

Agreed. That money is far more useful invested somewhere else. It’s the same price they paid for Semien lol, it’s nuts to give that to Matz up front to start the offseason.

[Spanky99]

Another class act with zero sense of humor and obviously just looking to take cheap shots, same as the guy who started it that Saskjayfan POS!

 

ETA: I BAN myself before you dickwads can do it SO THERE!!

 

lol... what's with the soapbox s***, stop it, man!

[Spanky99]

Agreed. That money is far more useful invested somewhere else. It’s the same price they paid for Semien lol, it’s nuts to give that to Matz up front to start the offseason.

 

Yes silly IMO, plenty of SP looking to win plus a pillow contract, lets play cards, lol.

[The Cats Ass]

I wouldn't really call giving Matz a QO a crazy idea. The front office will have to guess what Matz is feeling. They've probably already reached out to him to get an idea of extension costs. The cost of a win in Free Agency in 2020 was 9.1 M/WAR. Matz put up 2.8 last year, so if he does the same again the QO would represent a surplus value using FA money.

 

That said, I think 18.4M is too high of a AAV for Matz on a multi year deal, I'm okay with it being a 1 year commitment. The team would be paying a bit of a premium to get him on a 1 year deal. This would allow the money to open back up next offseason for more signs or extensions.

[glory]

I'm surprised that some people are on board with giving Matz the QO. I know a one year deal is a no risk kind of contract, but that would still be $18m of the team's available payroll being spent on a guy who had a 4.83 ERA/4.92 FIP (411 IP) in the NL from 2017-2020. As mentioned, that's the same money the team gave Semien who had MVP candidate upside based on his 2019 season and how he finished 2020. Matz at his absolute best is a sub-3 WAR SP with a spotty track record. I'd rather try to find the next Matz who another team wants to give up on rather than pay the real one $18m over a season. If the team is going throw $18m AAV's out there, then go for the bigger fish.

[connorp]

I'm surprised that some people are on board with giving Matz the QO. I know a one year deal is a no risk kind of contract, but that would still be $18m of the team's available payroll being spent on a guy who had a 4.83 ERA/4.92 FIP (411 IP) in the NL from 2017-2020. As mentioned, that's the same money the team gave Semien who had MVP candidate upside based on his 2019 season and how he finished 2020. Matz at his absolute best is a sub-3 WAR SP with a spotty track record. I'd rather try to find the next Matz who another team wants to give up on rather than pay the real one $18m over a season. If the team is going throw $18m AAV's out there, then go for the bigger fish.

 

Would you be ok with Matz 1/12? I don’t think Jays will spend so much, where you’re like “good thing we didn’t spend that $6”. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong:)

[Jimcanuck]

I'm surprised that some people are on board with giving Matz the QO. I know a one year deal is a no risk kind of contract, but that would still be $18m of the team's available payroll being spent on a guy who had a 4.83 ERA/4.92 FIP (411 IP) in the NL from 2017-2020. As mentioned, that's the same money the team gave Semien who had MVP candidate upside based on his 2019 season and how he finished 2020. Matz at his absolute best is a sub-3 WAR SP with a spotty track record. I'd rather try to find the next Matz who another team wants to give up on rather than pay the real one $18m over a season. If the team is going throw $18m AAV's out there, then go for the bigger fish.

 

He had injury issues in 2017, so let's set that year aside. 2018 to 2020 his xFIP was 4.13, 4.33, 4.15. His 2021 xFIP 3.94, an improvement on the previous 3.

 

The Mets have long had an astrocious infield defence, regularly throwing JD Davis at 3B, old Cano at 2B, Dom Smith at 1B. And I am aware FI stands for fielding independent, but no stat is 100% accurate and I kind of doubt the formula works very well for that Mets infield.

 

We've seen other pitchers take it to another level later in their careers.

 

Whatever the reasons, looking at the numbers and the improvement after leaving the Mets, a Matz QO is a reasonable proposition.

[saskjayfan]

He had injury issues in 2017, so let's set that year aside. 2018 to 2020 his xFIP was 4.13, 4.33, 4.15. His 2021 xFIP 3.94, an improvement on the previous 3.

 

The Mets have long had an astrocious infield defence, regularly throwing JD Davis at 3B, old Cano at 2B, Dom Smith at 1B. And I am aware FI stands for fielding independent, but no stat is 100% accurate and I kind of doubt the formula works very well for that Mets infield.

 

We've seen other pitchers take it to another level later in their careers.

 

Whatever the reasons, looking at the numbers and the improvement after leaving the Mets, a Matz QO is a reasonable proposition.

 

I think you can make the argument, but it still seems a stretch to me. You also have to consider the upcoming free agent pool and if you have the ability to sign any of them:

 

Ray

Matz

Sherzer

Kershaw

Rodon

Greike

Verlander

Kluber

Stroman

Guasman

Duffy

Wood

Syndergaard

Desclafani

Hill

Gray

Paxton

Pineda

Martinez

Bundy

Cobb

Rodriguez

Cueto

Edited October 22, 2021 by saskjayfan

[Jimcanuck]

I think you can make the argument, but it still seems a stretch to me. You also have to consider the upcoming free agent pool and if you have the ability to sign any of them:

 

Ray

Matz

Sherzer

Kershaw

Rodon

Greike

Verlander

Kluber

Stroman

Guasman

Duffy

Wood

Syndergaard

Hill

Gray

Paxton

Pineda

Martinez

Bundy

Cobb

Rodriguez

Cueto

 

And I expect the Jays to sign at least one of them, but for the calibre of pitcher they will be pursuing, it will be a multi year deal. Balancing that with Matz on a 1 year deal is nice risk management. There will be another pool of FA pitchers next year.

[The Cats Ass]

I'm surprised that some people are on board with giving Matz the QO. I know a one year deal is a no risk kind of contract, but that would still be $18m of the team's available payroll being spent on a guy who had a 4.83 ERA/4.92 FIP (411 IP) in the NL from 2017-2020. As mentioned, that's the same money the team gave Semien who had MVP candidate upside based on his 2019 season and how he finished 2020. Matz at his absolute best is a sub-3 WAR SP with a spotty track record. I'd rather try to find the next Matz who another team wants to give up on rather than pay the real one $18m over a season. If the team is going throw $18m AAV's out there, then go for the bigger fish.

 

I'm not sure you understand the meaning of "at his absolute best". Check out his 2nd half stats, that would be consider "at his best".

[The Cats Ass]

I think you can make the argument, but it still seems a stretch to me. You also have to consider the upcoming free agent pool and if you have the ability to sign any of them:

 

Ray

Matz

Sherzer

Kershaw

Rodon

Greike

Verlander

Kluber

Stroman

Guasman

Duffy

Wood

Syndergaard

Desclafani

Hill

Gray

Paxton

Pineda

Martinez

Bundy

Cobb

Rodriguez

Cueto

 

Thing is we need 2 starting pitchers. Matz is better than probably half those guys you listed, and most will be looking for multi year deals. If Matz did except they'd only have to concentrate on signing one of the top guys.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If the Jays are going to go after Ramirez this off season, might as well swing for the fences and try to get Bieber too. If Cleveland deals Ramirez, they might as well go into a full on rebuild.

 

It would gut the farm system, but you'd have a few years to replenish it while being a massive threat for multiple world series titles.

 

 

 

C - Kirk / Jansen

1B - Vladdy

2B - Biggio

3B - Ramirez

SS - Bo

LF - Gurriel

CF - Springer

RF - Teo

DH - FA (Schwarber?)

 

B - Espinal

B - Kirk / Jansen

B - Grichuk

B - Valera / Lopez

 

------

 

SP - Bieber

SP - Berrios

SP - Ryu

SP - Manoah

SP - Stripling / Hatch / FA (Syndergaard, Gray, Matz?)

 

CL - Romano

SU - FA (Iglesias, McHugh?)

SU - FA (Neris, Givens?)

RP - Mayza

RP - Cimber

RP - Richards

RP - Merryweather

RP - Borucki

[glory]

I'm not sure you understand the meaning of "at his absolute best". Check out his 2nd half stats, that would be consider "at his best".

 

No, I’m using that term correctly. Using that logic, Grichuk at his best is an all star. That doesn’t mean it’s a realistic expectation over a full season. Matz has had two really good seasons in his career, and he’s been around the same type of pitcher (from a value standpoint) both years. That’s probably a best case for what he is.

 

Now, if the team thinks 2nd half Matz is sustainable, then it would make more sense to try to get him on a longer term deal for less AAV.

[Brownie19]

I think you can make the argument, but it still seems a stretch to me. You also have to consider the upcoming free agent pool and if you have the ability to sign any of them:

 

Ray

Matz

Sherzer

Kershaw

Rodon

Greike

Verlander

Kluber

Stroman

Guasman

Duffy

Wood

Syndergaard

Desclafani

Hill

Gray

Paxton

Pineda

Martinez

Bundy

Cobb

Rodriguez

Cueto

 

It is all going to depend on the market this year. If it's a hot market and guys like Desclafani and Wood are landing 3 year deals, you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have Matz on a 1 year $18M deal or Desclafani/Wood at 3 years $36M (or something like that). I'd rather have Matz personally.

 

It's all kind of risk/reward evaluations - you'd hate to not qualify Matz and see him leave on a 4 year $60M deal where we missed out on a free compensation piece.

 

Ray, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, Stro and ERod are all getting multi year deals....They shouldn't be included in this discussion as we're likely trying to sign one of them already.

 

It's Matz, Pineda, Duffy, Bundy, Cobb, Paxton, Cueto, Martinez, Hill, Desclafani, Wood, Kluber, Gray, Grienke that will be looking at relatively short term deals and there's more than a few them I really have no interest in. If it's a soft market and you can get these guys at 1 year / $12M AND you have to get them to want to sign and play in Toronto (which means you might swing and miss at your top 2-3 options) are you going to lose sleep over the extra $6M you gave Matz when he's more of a known commodity in TO? Oh and if he wants to leave, you get compensation?

 

Syndergaard and Verlander are wild cards - obviously if they want a 1 year pillow deal and want to play in Toronto - then yeah, I want them over Matz.

 

To be honest - I think Gray is the guy you want. I'm happy to let Matz leave if we can get Gray on a 2 or 3 year deal (ideally with a club option).

[glory]

Aren't the Rockies going to qualify Gray? Maybe I'm misremembering, but that seemed to be their logic when they didn't trade any of their vets at the deadline, although maybe that was just meant for Story.

 

I think Syndergaard takes a pillow contract due to his age, but Verlander is probably going to need at least a two year guarantee to choose Toronto over many of the other contenders that will be after him on a one year deal. I wonder if Toronto looks more appealing for FA's now after the success of Semien and Ray. Players looking for one year deals, especially pitchers, may have avoided Toronto in the past, but hopefully that is changing.

[The_DH]

Aren't the Rockies going to qualify Gray? Maybe I'm misremembering, but that seemed to be their logic when they didn't trade any of their vets at the deadline, although maybe that was just meant for Story.

 

I think Syndergaard takes a pillow contract due to his age, but Verlander is probably going to need at least a two year guarantee to choose Toronto over many of the other contenders that will be after him on a one year deal. I wonder if Toronto looks more appealing for FA's now after the success of Semien and Ray. Players looking for one year deals, especially pitchers, may have avoided Toronto in the past, but hopefully that is changing.

 

If you were a pitcher would you take a pillow contract from Toronto to face some of the biggest opposition while pitching half your games at the Dome? Don’t think we’re the first choice for that. If you were a bat you might do it but not a pitcher.

[Stangstag]

It is all going to depend on the market this year. If it's a hot market and guys like Desclafani and Wood are landing 3 year deals, you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have Matz on a 1 year $18M deal or Desclafani/Wood at 3 years $36M (or something like that). I'd rather have Matz personally.

 

It's all kind of risk/reward evaluations - you'd hate to not qualify Matz and see him leave on a 4 year $60M deal where we missed out on a free compensation piece.

 

Ray, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, Stro and ERod are all getting multi year deals....They shouldn't be included in this discussion as we're likely trying to sign one of them already.

 

It's Matz, Pineda, Duffy, Bundy, Cobb, Paxton, Cueto, Martinez, Hill, Desclafani, Wood, Kluber, Gray, Grienke that will be looking at relatively short term deals and there's more than a few them I really have no interest in. If it's a soft market and you can get these guys at 1 year / $12M AND you have to get them to want to sign and play in Toronto (which means you might swing and miss at your top 2-3 options) are you going to lose sleep over the extra $6M you gave Matz when he's more of a known commodity in TO? Oh and if he wants to leave, you get compensation?

 

Syndergaard and Verlander are wild cards - obviously if they want a 1 year pillow deal and want to play in Toronto - then yeah, I want them over Matz.

 

To be honest - I think Gray is the guy you want. I'm happy to let Matz leave if we can get Gray on a 2 or 3 year deal (ideally with a club option).

 

I think the QO decision would come before any of those other guys sign though right? Can't wait to watch the market, the decision has to be made independently

[Stangstag]

If you were a pitcher would you take a pillow contract from Toronto to face some of the biggest opposition while pitching half your games at the Dome? Don’t think we’re the first choice for that. If you were a bat you might do it but not a pitcher.

 

That's a great point. Robbie Ray is Alpha as fk

[THANOS]

It is all going to depend on the market this year. If it's a hot market and guys like Desclafani and Wood are landing 3 year deals, you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have Matz on a 1 year $18M deal or Desclafani/Wood at 3 years $36M (or something like that). I'd rather have Matz personally.

 

It's all kind of risk/reward evaluations - you'd hate to not qualify Matz and see him leave on a 4 year $60M deal where we missed out on a free compensation piece.

 

Ray, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, Stro and ERod are all getting multi year deals....They shouldn't be included in this discussion as we're likely trying to sign one of them already.

 

It's Matz, Pineda, Duffy, Bundy, Cobb, Paxton, Cueto, Martinez, Hill, Desclafani, Wood, Kluber, Gray, Grienke that will be looking at relatively short term deals and there's more than a few them I really have no interest in. If it's a soft market and you can get these guys at 1 year / $12M AND you have to get them to want to sign and play in Toronto (which means you might swing and miss at your top 2-3 options) are you going to lose sleep over the extra $6M you gave Matz when he's more of a known commodity in TO? Oh and if he wants to leave, you get compensation?

 

Syndergaard and Verlander are wild cards - obviously if they want a 1 year pillow deal and want to play in Toronto - then yeah, I want them over Matz.

 

To be honest - I think Gray is the guy you want. I'm happy to let Matz leave if we can get Gray on a 2 or 3 year deal (ideally with a club option).

 

I agree 100% with all of your post. Gray is my guy out of that group as well as long as his decrease in K/9 the past few years isn't a result of a decline in stuff. If his stuff is the same, you sign Gray, get him out of Colorado, put him with Petey, and reap the rewards. The guy is an ace if he puts it together and the stuff is still the same.

 

Gray + Thor + Max Max (Or Ray, Rodon, Gaus) is my ideal pitching offseason. Thor would only be a 1Y deal so he's off the books after 2022. Gray, like you mentioned, I'd try and lock up for 3Y cheap AAV. Mad Max is probably getting 3Y high AAV and he's ageless, so I would do that without hesitation.

[glory]

If you were a pitcher would you take a pillow contract from Toronto to face some of the biggest opposition while pitching half your games at the Dome? Don’t think we’re the first choice for that. If you were a bat you might do it but not a pitcher.

 

That's why I wonder if Ray's success is going to change that. He came here after completely s***ing the bed in 2020, and put up a Cy Young season with a pitching coach who seems to be able to help pitchers improve. No doubt the Jays will still have to offer the most money (like they probably did with Ray), but I'm curious if pitchers might view the Jays differently when Ray turns 1/8 into $100m+ a year later.

[max silver]

I agree 100% with all of your post. Gray is my guy out of that group as well as long as his decrease in K/9 the past few years isn't a result of a decline in stuff. If his stuff is the same, you sign Gray, get him out of Colorado, put him with Petey, and reap the rewards. The guy is an ace if he puts it together and the stuff is still the same.

 

Gray + Thor + Max Max (Or Ray, Rodon, Gaus) is my ideal pitching offseason. Thor would only be a 1Y deal so he's off the books after 2022. Gray, like you mentioned, I'd try and lock up for 3Y cheap AAV. Mad Max is probably getting 3Y high AAV and he's ageless, so I would do that without hesitation.

 

I'm not sure I'm super interested in Gray. Perhaps as a reclamation project acquiring him could hold merit, but it seems unlikely simply getting him away from Coors alone is going to lead to much if any improvement, as his career home and away splits are actually very similar across the board.

[John_Havok]

I'm not sure I'm super interested in Gray. Perhaps as a reclamation project acquiring him could hold merit, but it seems unlikely simply getting him away from Coors alone is going to lead to much if any improvement, as his career home and away splits are actually very similar across the board.

 

I think the assumption he was making is that Gray, under Pete Walker's tutelage would have improved numbers rather than just staying the same. It's an interesting assumption for sure as we've seen how working with Walker helped Ray and Matz. But, there's also other examples where working with him didn't help so... who knows what would actually happen.

[Brownie19]

If you were a pitcher would you take a pillow contract from Toronto to face some of the biggest opposition while pitching half your games at the Dome? Don’t think we’re the first choice for that. If you were a bat you might do it but not a pitcher.

 

I agree - but there's now also the opportunity to play on a team that has a chance to win the WS. That - combined with the recent success of Pete Walker and the new facilities makes us more appealing than we were 3-4 years ago. Plus then you don't have to face Toronto's lineup

[THANOS]

I'm not sure I'm super interested in Gray. Perhaps as a reclamation project acquiring him could hold merit, but it seems unlikely simply getting him away from Coors alone is going to lead to much if any improvement, as his career home and away splits are actually very similar across the board.

 

I think the assumption he was making is that Gray, under Pete Walker's tutelage would have improved numbers rather than just staying the same. It's an interesting assumption for sure as we've seen how working with Walker helped Ray and Matz. But, there's also other examples where working with him didn't help so... who knows what would actually happen.

 

This is my exact assumption yes. It could be a wrong assumption, or may not produce the same results, but Gray's issue, from the outside, doesn't seem to be stuff.

 

Fixing the below could pay dividends and then some for whomever signs Gray:

 

1. Altitude - get him out of Coors where breaking balls die and FBs go to the moon

2. Pitch Mix - this could be a Pete Walker and Matt Buschman fix

3. Confidence - this is definitely a Pete Walker strength from everything we've read

[John_Havok]

This is my exact assumption yes. It could be a wrong assumption, or may not produce the same results, but Gray's issue, from the outside, doesn't seem to be stuff.

 

Fixing the below could pay dividends and then some for whomever signs Gray:

 

1. Altitude - get him out of Coors where breaking balls die and FBs go to the moon

2. Pitch Mix - this could be a Pete Walker and Matt Buschman fix

3. Confidence - this is definitely a Pete Walker strength from everything we've read

 

Yeah I would love to get Gray on a 1 year deal, but he hasn't been so bad that there wouldn't be teams out there likely willing to give him more than 1. Like, he's not a disaster that someone needs to fix in order to be viable in the rotation, he's got the stuff and just needs a tweak or two to get him to where everyone thinks he should be.

 

Honestly, I'd be okay with the Jays offering a multi-year deal with a club option. Maybe 2+1 in the 20 million range, some performance bonuses and the option would be for 12 with a 2 million buyout or something.

[The_DH]

I agree - but there's now also the opportunity to play on a team that has a chance to win the WS. That - combined with the recent success of Pete Walker and the new facilities makes us more appealing than we were 3-4 years ago. Plus then you don't have to face Toronto's lineup

 

I just don’t think we are a top choice place to pitch. While Ray may have turned it around here, you don’t hear any sense of gratitude. I would think that might be heard by a few around the league. Also while Ray excelled, there were Brad Hand, Tanner Roark and others. Pete Walker may be a good coach but I don’t know if he changes free agents decisions.