Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[connorp]

I still see him maxing 1 year deals.

 

Smart money would be on Bauer taking a 4-5 year deal and getting bank. Would be insanity not to for what he’ll likely get. I’ll make you a gentleman’s wager on that

 

He’s 30, not a spring chicken anymore. There’s a time to be young and cocky and a time to be smart. I’m sure everyone in his life is telling him this

[The Cats Ass]

WTF is your problem?!

 

so enlighten me Mr. Einstein, what does 'ETA' mean?

 

Well to me it obviously means Elvis Tribute Artist.

[dineke]

What is bauer trying to do? Be an nba player? Kinda dumb when he's a pitcher.

[Orgfiller]

I'd rather trade Grichuk and keep Rowdy. Rowdy is just scratching the surface and he's cheap. His walk rate ticked up, his strike out rate went down huge. He only had a .276 Babip and he's an above average 1st baseman defensively. What if Vlad just isn't a good defender. I'd rotate the 2 through the Dh and first base position.

 

Tellez is a big and slow guy who pulls the ball often and gets shifted. I don't think you can say he "only" had a .276 BABIP, if anything he probably hit well enough to sustain a BABIP in that range for a guy with his physical + hitting profile. David Ortiz, who was a hall of fame level hitter, had a career .300 BABIP with several good seasons in the .250 - .270 range and he was obviously significantly more skilled with the bat than Tellez is.

[Stangstag]

If it were up to me, I'd rotate Gurriel/Teoscar at DH so they are not in the field together, shift Grichuk to LF and sign Jackie Bradley Jr. to be the everyday CF. In the infield I would look to target Simmons or Semien to play SS, move Bo to 3B and have Cavan stay at 2B. I would fully commit to Vlad at 1B and trade Tellez for whatever I can get for him.

 

I like it, but not sure what Vlad will look like at 1B everyday.

[Dokken]

Well to me it obviously means Elvis Tribute Artist.

 

ROTFLMAO

 

ok fine, now crawl back under your rock please

[glory]

If Bauer is willing to take a one year deal on a team that would promise him 40+ starts a season, then do it and don't look back. If he wants a long term deal, and let's face it guaranteed money in your 30's when every pitcher is potentially a pitch away from hurting themselves is going to be too enticing to turn down, then that promise becomes too much.

 

As far as the OF, if Springer is out of the question, then I'm fine with a Bradley/Davis platoon in CF. Instantly improves the defense, and offensively should be a league average or better. Grich isn't going to want to be the 4th OF, which is why you try to move him this winter. Won't get much back, if anything, assuming anyone even values him at 3/30 over the next three years, but he shouldn't be starting in the OF on a playoff team.

 

I wonder what it would take to get one year of Lindor? Probably doesn't make sense for where the Jays are, but man would that be fun to watch.

[DigitalRock]

WTF is your problem?!

 

so enlighten me Mr. Einstein, what does 'ETA' mean?

 

Extra Tight Anus.

[Dokken]

Extra Tight Anus.

 

yeah that works too. As for me, I am a little uptight right now - seeing your team s*** the bed will do that to a person - so f*** OFF mister comedian!!

[Stangstag]

If Bauer is willing to take a one year deal on a team that would promise him 40+ starts a season, then do it and don't look back. If he wants a long term deal, and let's face it guaranteed money in your 30's when every pitcher is potentially a pitch away from hurting themselves is going to be too enticing to turn down, then that promise becomes too much.

 

As far as the OF, if Springer is out of the question, then I'm fine with a Bradley/Davis platoon in CF. Instantly improves the defense, and offensively should be a league average or better. Grich isn't going to want to be the 4th OF, which is why you try to move him this winter. Won't get much back, if anything, assuming anyone even values him at 3/30 over the next three years, but he shouldn't be starting in the OF on a playoff team.

 

I wonder what it would take to get one year of Lindor? Probably doesn't make sense for where the Jays are, but man would that be fun to watch.

 

People here keep saying this but that's a load of s***. Grichuk would be perfectly acceptable as a corner OF.

[connorp]

People here keep saying this but that's a load of s***. Grichuk would be perfectly acceptable as a corner OF.

 

“Perfectly acceptable” may be a bit strong way to put it

[glory]

People here keep saying this but that's a load of s***. Grichuk would be perfectly acceptable as a corner OF.

 

Defensively maybe, but not with the bat. CF and 3B (or SS with Bo moving to 3B but that's probably not happening yet) are the two spots where the upgrades could be significant. Grichuk may not be better than Hernandez at this point (still need to see Teoscar do this over a full season). He's the one guy in the OF you upgrade on.

[TheHurl]

What is bauer trying to do? Be an nba player? Kinda dumb when he's a pitcher.

 

It's not though. He does things his way when it comes to training and many other aspects to his preparation. He doesn't want another Cleveland situation where they were all for his way but then asked him to change. Cincy will give him exactly what he wants, so will SD. Jays are trying to build a culture. I know as far as yoga and meditation Bauer is all-in. I'm not sure what some of the other programs are, but if they don't align, they probably will be out on him IMO. I like that Bauer is betting on himself. If his career ends he goes into the teaching side.

[TheHurl]

Jays are much more likely to believe in Grichuk, than Rowdy who caps at 1.5-2.0 WAR. It's funny how recency bias comes into play in 3 week hot streaks.

[connorp]

It's not though. He does things his way when it comes to training and many other aspects to his preparation. He doesn't want another Cleveland situation where they were all for his way but then asked him to change. Cincy will give him exactly what he wants, so will SD. Jays are trying to build a culture. I know as far as yoga and meditation Bauer is all-in. I'm not sure what some of the other programs are, but if they don't align, they probably will be out on him IMO. I like that Bauer is betting on himself. If his career ends he goes into the teaching side.

 

You make it sound like “ho hum if his career ends he’ll just go into teaching”..

He’ll also leave $100+ million on the table.

[Jays24]

Smart money would be on Bauer taking a 4-5 year deal and getting bank. Would be insanity not to for what he’ll likely get. I’ll make you a gentleman’s wager on that

 

He’s 30, not a spring chicken anymore. There’s a time to be young and cocky and a time to be smart. I’m sure everyone in his life is telling him this

 

Ya he will take a long deal with opt outs. Would be dumb for him to do otherwise. All it takes is one injury and you've lost out on hundreds of millions...

Edited October 1, 2020 by Jays24

[Jays24]

I like it, but not sure what Vlad will look like at 1B everyday.

 

If we can't trust Vlad to be a first baseman at age 21/22 then his overall value to any team goes to s***. We have to trust he will improve at his trait like most young players. Although ill agree, I've never seen a first baseman struggle at that position the way he did.

[Jays24]

People here keep saying this but that's a load of s***. Grichuk would be perfectly acceptable as a corner OF.

Agreed, I'm not even a Grichuk fan but hes an average corner OFer at worst. We might just have better options for those positions for the future but that doesn't mean Grichuk won't have value to another team.

[connorp]

Agreed, I'm not even a Grichuk fan but hes an average corner OFer at worst. We might just have better options for those positions for the future but that doesn't mean Grichuk won't have value to another team.

 

He’s been good for a little under 1.5 WAR/per over 2+ seasons for the Jays (with nothing weird).. so you could say he’s a little below average at worst. But close to average is best description maybe

[glory]

Agreed, I'm not even a Grichuk fan but hes an average corner OFer at worst. We might just have better options for those positions for the future but that doesn't mean Grichuk won't have value to another team.

 

A ~100 wRC+ bat in RF with above average defense (presumably, defensive metrics can fluctuate) isn’t a bad player, but it’s not a good one either. I’ll take Teoscar’s below average D in RF if he keeps hitting the way he has since June of last year over him. Another negative, and this isn’t Grich’s fault, is that management thinks he’s better than he is, so he’ll bat much higher in the lineup than he should. Even if you don’t believe lineup construction is that important, you don’t want a .290 OBP in one of the top spots even if he’s hitting for power.

 

It’s probably a moot point since they don’t give him $50m only to dump him a year later, but still, CF will remain a problem as long as he’s there.

[Stangstag]

A ~100 wRC+ bat in RF with above average defense (presumably, defensive metrics can fluctuate) isn’t a bad player, but it’s not a good one either. I’ll take Teoscar’s below average D in RF if he keeps hitting the way he has since June of last year over him. Another negative, and this isn’t Grich’s fault, is that management thinks he’s better than he is, so he’ll bat much higher in the lineup than he should. Even if you don’t believe lineup construction is that important, you don’t want a .290 OBP in one of the top spots even if he’s hitting for power.

 

It’s probably a moot point since they don’t give him $50m only to dump him a year later, but still, CF will remain a problem as long as he’s there.

 

100 = 112 now eh?

[glory]

100 = 112 now eh?

 

2016-2020

 

2241 PA, 101 wRC+, .242/.290/.477, 5.8 BB%

 

He's the same guy except now with less exit velo and less strike outs.

[Eat My Shatkins]

What's the word on Tim Mayza's recovery from his surgery last year?

 

He should factor into the bullpen next year as a lefty that can miss bats.

[RobinThicc]

Get a:

 

Stop gap SS or 3B (maybe groshans or martin stick at SS. If you think they cant, them maybe go for a long term SS or keep Bo there, in which case go for the stop gap 3b).

 

Top of the rotation starter

 

CF'er with good defense

 

Possibly upgrade at C

[BTS]

What's the word on Tim Mayza's recovery from his surgery last year?

 

He should factor into the bullpen next year as a lefty that can miss bats.

 

Is he even still with the org? He was DFA’d last offseason and I don’t remember him ever signing a contract for 2020.

[wilko]

Is he even still with the org? He was DFA’d last offseason and I don’t remember him ever signing a contract for 2020.

 

Kinda forgot about Tim.

[BlueRocky]

Some interesting early-offseason decisions to be made:

 

- Do they pick up the 9.5M option on Anderson? (probably)

- Do they non-tender Shaw (probably) or Cole (probably not)?

- Do they cut their losses and eat the 12M Roark sunk cost? (probably not)

- Is there any reason to retain an out-of-options Reese McGuire? (meh)

 

2021 Free Agents

Bass

*Giles

Ray

Shoemaker

Walker

Panik

Villar

 

* = 60-day IL

 

On 40-man roster = 35

 

 

7 guaranteed contracts and TOs = $61.008M

15 near-minimum contracts ~ $8.4525M

4 arbitration contracts = (MLBTR estimates TBD)

 

Total 26-man roster projected payroll = $69.4605M + 4 arb contracts

 

Great summary.

 

Just to keep things short, I would:

 

- non-tender Anderson, save the 9.5M

- stretch out Merryweather, Kay, Hatch as 5th starters/SP depth

- Resign Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray, maybe Shoemaker

- Reese McGuire to Buffalo. Move forward with Jansen/Kirk

- Make an upgrade on Shaw. If tendered, he should not have an everyday role IMO.

- Let Villar walk.

- Resign Bass, maybe Giles on cheap.

- $69.4605M + 4 arb contracts in commitments means the jays have cash to play with, it will be an interesting offseason. They could use another Ryu-like talent in the rotation.

 

They are essentially a .500 talent ball club until the next wave of prospects arrive.

One elite SP and elite bat is priority if they’re serious about competing in 2021.

 

I love Trevor Bauer, but it will be a tough sign as other teams will also be willing to fork out massive cash for him on a 1-year deal. I’m not sure there’s another arm that’s close in FA. I can see him either staying with the Reds, or going ring chasing with the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, or even Mets/Braves/Angels before considering Toronto. He has all the leverage as everyone wants him, so most $ and bests competing environment wins.

 

Defensive upgrades are welcomed, an elite third baseman that can hit would be great though we’re kinda expecting one of Martin/Groshans/Martinez to eventually fill that hole. If Bichette moves to 3B there’s room for an elite defensive SS like Simmons. He’ll rather stay at SS, as he should. But it really depends on how the roster develops overtime.

Edited October 1, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is he even still with the org? He was DFA’d last offseason and I don’t remember him ever signing a contract for 2020.

 

I don't see him on Blue Jays Roster Resource but every where else I look it says he's still with the org. I would have thought they'd keep him around and bring him back after his TJS. He was looking like a pretty good lefty reliever with control until 2025.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Great summary.

 

Just to keep things short, I would:

 

- non-tender Anderson, save the 9.5M

- stretch out Merryweather, Kay, Hatch as 5th starters/SP depth

- Resign Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray, maybe Shoemaker

- Reese McGuire to Buffalo. Move forward with Jansen/Kirk

- Make an upgrade on Shaw. If tendered, he should not have an everyday role IMO.

- Let Villar walk.

- Resign Bass, maybe Giles on cheap.

 

They are essentially a .500 talent ball club until the next wave of prospects arrive.

One elite SP and elite bat is priority if they’re serious about competing in 2021.

 

I love Trevor Bauer, but it will be a tough sign as other teams will also be willing to fork out massive cash for him on a 1-year deal. I’m not sure there’s another arm that’s close in FA. I can see him either staying with the Reds, or going ring chasing with the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, or even Mets/Braves before considering Toronto.

 

Defensive upgrades are welcomed, an elite third baseman that can hit would be great though we’re kinda expecting one of Martin/Groshans/Martinez to eventually fill that hole. If Bichette moves to 3B there’s room for an elite defensive SS like Simmons.

 

Do we really think Merryweather can be stretched out still? The guy pitched 0 innings in 2018, 6 innings in 2019 and only managed 13 innings this year before heading back to the IL yet again.

[Terminator]

The Jays need to improve defensively next season. They were the second worst defensive OF by OAA, fifth worst defensive infield and second worst total defense by the same metric.

 

The defense is a damn mess. On some level we just have to accept it a bit and try and outhit the other team. Solving it is further complicated with the addition of Kirk. If he DH's a lot it allows Jansen, who is our best defensive player, more PT at a key position. But that only adds to the glut of DH types who then need to take the field to get AB's which includes Kirk, Vlad Jr., Tellez, Teoscar, Lourdes, Shaw, Fisher, etc.

 

Perhaps we could acquire a good defensive 3B and CFer and then release Fisher, release/bench Shaw and trade Tellez. That leaves Vlad, Gurriel, Teoscar, and Kirk vying for AB's among DH, 1B, C, and LF but that's probably fine. Then pray that Bo, Biggio and Vlad Jr. (he'll never be good but he could go from atrocious to borderline playable) improve defensively.

 

The other option is to just say f*** it and go all out for offense.