General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[glory]

Ah, forgot about the "can't offer the QO twice" rule in the CBA.

 

That's makes the decision even easier. If the Jays are out of it, then move Acetrada ASAP. Then try to re-sign him in the winter.

[glory]

If they are under .500, accelerate the rebuild by making trades. No point in delaying the inevitable (and the value lost) on a hope and a prayer.

 

I'm expecting a retool over a rebuild. Along the lines of what Cashman did for the Yankees last year.

 

I wouldn't mind a rebuild, but don't see this ownership agreeing to it. We will probably see a retool where they get assets back for their impending free agents (Estrada, Jose if he agrees, Smith, Liriano), and then taking another stab at it next year.

[John_Havok]

Also, I'm sure like most of the board the FO is encouraged by the fantastic play of Vlad, Bichette, Alford, Jansen and a few others. The pitching prospects have fallen flat however. Getting a nice horde of pitching prospects back would be good move, IMO.

 

I think targeting arms isnt efficient. Their bust ratio and injury risk really makes them volatile and less reliable. Position players are the way to go when building your core imo. And if you run into a scenario where you have multiple guys at 1 position, either move them to another one or use the dupe as trade bait for arms.

[John_Havok]

From the Nats I would say the highest ceiling piece they have is the bat of Juan Soto.

 

Robles is the highest ceiling in that org but yeah Soto is definitely one to watch.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm expecting a retool over a rebuild. Along the lines of what Cashman did for the Yankees last year.

 

I wouldn't mind a rebuild, but don't see this ownership agreeing to it. We will probably see a retool where they get assets back for their impending free agents (Estrada, Jose if he agrees, Smith, Liriano), and then taking another stab at it next year.

 

What is the difference between rebuild or retool, really? Is it moving JD? Because JD is unrestricted after next year, are the Jays prepared to lose him for nothing.

[glory]

What is the difference between rebuild or retool, really? Is it moving JD? Because JD is unrestricted after next year, are the Jays prepared to lose him for nothing.

 

Retool: take another stab at contending in 2018, then deal with the consequences after that if JD walks (or extend him)

Rebuild: Trade JD now and starting stripping the roster of vets in order to start a long-term rebuild

 

In theory, I think the rebuild makes more sense mainly because I don't think the prospects will be ready to take over in 2019 if JD left, but this is Rogers we are talking about. They can sell hope and .500 finishes or see attendance/revenue plummet for a number of years with a rebuild. I know which direction they'd rather go.

[Bobthe4th]

What is the difference between rebuild or retool, really? Is it moving JD? Because JD is unrestricted after next year, are the Jays prepared to lose him for nothing.

 

A rebuild you trade everyone who has either reached or is past their peak. So as well as JD, you trade Pillar, Happ, Tulo, Martin, etc. You probably also trade anyone you can get lots of value for like Stroman or Sanchez.

 

A retool you keep players who will still be valuable in the next 1 to 2 years, and supplement them with trading expiring contracts, free agents, and a few trades of veterans.

 

IMO JD being traded fits into both of these scenarios.

[Jimcanuck]

In theory, I think the rebuild makes more sense mainly because I don't think the prospects will be ready to take over in 2019 if JD left, but this is Rogers we are talking about. They can sell hope and .500 finishes or see attendance/revenue plummet for a number of years with a rebuild. I know which direction they'd rather go.

 

Agree with the above so maybe Shatkins can sell a third option to Rogers, a partial rebuild involving moving JD for a package including a cost controlled MLB'er to help sell it to the casuals - and moving other older players with value such as Estrada and Pillar. Keep the cost controlled and past their prime $$$ guys that won't bring much of a return (Martin & Tulo). This would keep the Jays from falling into clusterf*** territory.

[saskjayfan]

Agree with the above so maybe Shatkins can sell a third option to Rogers, a partial rebuild involving moving JD for a package including a cost controlled MLB'er to help sell it to the casuals - and moving other older players with value such as Estrada and Pillar. Keep the cost controlled and past their prime $$$ guys that won't bring much of a return (Martin & Tulo). This would keep the Jays from falling into clusterf*** territory.

 

Kevin Pillar isn't old and he's controlled at reasonable cost for 3 more years. You're not doing a partial rebuild if you deal Pillar. You're blowing it up if you trade Pillar.

[Jonn]

[jays4life19]

 

f***ing finallyyyy

[TwistedLogic]

The interesting dilemma will be what if we are around .500, and just a few games out of a second wildcard place?

 

I wouldn't call it an "interesting dilemma" if it's something that's happened repetitively for two decades.

 

Being "around .500" at the trade deadline is the worst case scenario for this team; they'll probably wind up hoarding their pending free agents in an effort to trip over the finish line, and still miss the playoffs in the end.

[glory]

I wouldn't call it an "interesting dilemma" if it's something that's happened repetitively for two decades.

 

Being "around .500" at the trade deadline is the worst case scenario for this team; they'll probably wind up hoarding their pending free agents in an effort to trip over the finish line, and still miss the playoffs in the end.

 

Yeah, they either need to be out of it, or right in the thick of it. A .500 record where they are within 4-5 games of a playoff spot with a number of teams to pass is a terrible place to be.

[Bobthe4th]

I wouldn't call it an "interesting dilemma" if it's something that's happened repetitively for two decades.

 

Being "around .500" at the trade deadline is the worst case scenario for this team; they'll probably wind up hoarding their pending free agents in an effort to trip over the finish line, and still miss the playoffs in the end.

 

Except you're ignoring important points:

 

the 2nd wildcard was only introduced in 2012 negating your it's happened before theory;

 

the second part of this hypothetical scenario is where the 2nd wildcard is in close reach, a .500 record but >5 teams and games out is completely different to the same record but only say 2 games out;

 

if the Jays got back to around .500 at the deadline it would mean winning the majority of the games, and likely have players returning from injury and playing well. This is good as it gives you options - ride the good form to the playoffs, or sell assets at a high price;

 

the worst case scenario is surely that we suck because of injuries and loss of form - meaning we miss out on playoffs but also can't get value for trades.

[Jimcanuck]

Kevin Pillar isn't old and he's controlled at reasonable cost for 3 more years. You're not doing a partial rebuild if you deal Pillar. You're blowing it up if you trade Pillar.

 

Pillar will be 31/32 by the time the Jays are contenders under a rebuild or partial rebuild scenario. He's also one of the more valuable ML roster assets (5th or 6th in trade value by my estimation). He's also in his prime and having a career year - prime trade bait if the decision is made to rebuild or partial rebuild.

[Grant77]

Pillar will be 31/32 by the time the Jays are contenders under a rebuild or partial rebuild scenario. He's also one of the more valuable ML roster assets (5th or 6th in trade value by my estimation). He's also in his prime and having a career year - prime trade bait if the decision is made to rebuild or partial rebuild.

 

When you say 5th or 6th, do you mean out of any players in all of baseball?

 

Mike Trout

Francisco Lindor

Corey Seager

Kris Bryant

Nolan Arenado

Carlos Correa

 

If that's the case, who is he more valuable than?

[Pendleton]

When you say 5th or 6th, do you mean out of any players in all of baseball?

 

Mike Trout

Francisco Lindor

Corey Seager

Kris Bryant

Nolan Arenado

Carlos Correa

 

If that's the case, who is he more valuable than?

 

Lol for f***s sake

[Orgfiller]

When you say 5th or 6th, do you mean out of any players in all of baseball?

 

Mike Trout

Francisco Lindor

Corey Seager

Kris Bryant

Nolan Arenado

Carlos Correa

 

If that's the case, who is he more valuable than?

 

Really Grant? Really?

[saskjayfan]

 

Donaldson was hit by a pitch in his first at bat back. Thank goodness he's still in the game. Talk about crap luck.

[Governator]

When you say 5th or 6th, do you mean out of any players in all of baseball?

 

Mike Trout

Francisco Lindor

Corey Seager

Kris Bryant

Nolan Arenado

Carlos Correa

 

If that's the case, who is he more valuable than?

 

Whoosh,

 

He's obviously speaking within the org..

[TheHurl]

I love that Grant still couldn't bring himself to write Betts on that list.

[Dick_Pole]

When you say 5th or 6th, do you mean out of any players in all of baseball?

 

Mike Trout

Francisco Lindor

Corey Seager

Kris Bryant

Nolan Arenado

Carlos Correa

 

If that's the case, who is he more valuable than?

 

I'm assuming this is troll bait and these fools took it.

[Grant77]

His statement was so incredibly obvious (Pillar is probably #2 or #3) and the poster is known for outrageous statements. He obviously won't reveal what he truly meant now, but there was and still is some uncertainty.

[Jimcanuck]

His statement was so incredibly obvious (Pillar is probably #2 or #3) and the poster is known for outrageous statements. He obviously won't reveal what he truly meant now, but there was and still is some uncertainty.

 

#2 or #3?

 

Sanchy

Stro

JD

Travis (arguable)

Pillar or Osuna (I'd go with Pillar)

 

Travis ahead because he is younger, not yet in his prime, and better bat (Pillar's good start to 2017 notwithstanding)

[TheHurl]

Went to Fangraphs Trade Value from last year to look up the list. Found this disclaimer. Interesting that Adam Eaton in turn was traded for Giolito plus Lopez.

 

Teams Still Don’t Pay For Defense

Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco

Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay

Adam Eaton, OF, Chicago

Kevin Pillar, OF, Toronto

 

As I noted in yesterday’s introduction, Andrelton Simmons fell off the list in part because he actually got traded over the winter, and the return was underwhelming to say the least. So, while one could make a pretty valid case for the overall value of the four players above, each of them rely pretty heavily on the acceptance of the value of their defense, and even a guy like Simmons (who everyone agrees is an elite fielder) didn’t bring back a high-level return. Crawford came extremely close to making the cut — he’s in that 50-55 group that bounced on and off the list right up until the end — but in the end, there just wasn’t enough evidence that teams will pay premium prices for glove-first players.

[Jimcanuck]

Travis 822 PA, 5 fWAR, 26 yrs old

Pillar 1636 PA, 9.5 fWAR, 28 yrs old

[Jonn]

 

 

I wish Alford was starting over Coghlan though...

[Daniel Labude]

Gibby is beyond frustrating. Why even have Alford up here if he is going to play Coghlan and Carrera over him

[CHRIS]

Gibby is beyond frustrating. Why even have Alford up here if he is going to play Coghlan and Carrera over him

 

Yeah, I don't get this; unless there's an unreported reason for why Alford can't go tonight.

[gruber92]

Gibby is an idiot, i'll tell you what he's thinking regarding Alford. He figures at some point during the game, he'll have a valid reason to insert Alford, either to PH or for defensive purposes. Let's go with the experienced less athletic inferior bat and defender over the better more athletic younger bat with huge upside because that's just how things are done. His savvy move will be using Alford late, Alford contributes towards a win, Gibby leans back in his chair post game and winks at every reporter when asked about Alford's contributions and his decision in using him.