What is needed next year so that the Jays keep winning?

[Olerud363]

I don't mean literally "nothing". You can understand an expression, can you not?

 

They have significantly worse OPS vs hall of fame pitchers than against avg pitchers of their respective eras.

 

For example,

 

Bob gibson vs Hank Aaron, Aaron only had a career .700 ish OPS against gibson vs .950 or so OPS for his entire career.

 

You also completely ignored the article I posted evaluating the effects of great pitching in the playoffs.

 

Let me ask you this. What would Ryan Goins OPS against Bob Gibson?? The AVERAGE OPS against Gibson was about .600 so Aaron was above average against Gibson.

 

One of Gibson's team mates in 1968 was a guy called Larry Jaster. I never heard of him before 5 minutes ago.. I just went to look up an average sort of guy that played in the same era.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jastela01&year=Career&t=p

 

Jaster won 30 something games 3.5 or so era... you know what his career OPS against was?? .709.

 

So great hitters turn Bob Gibson into Larry Jaster.

[Olerud363]

Ofcourse they have worse numbers are good pitchers than average pitchers, that doesn't prove what you think it does. Great pitchers also have worse numbers against good hitters than they do against mediocre hitters. That;s not saying anything and it doesn't really back up what you and some others have been saying.

 

There is no evidence that good pitching disproportionately dominates good hitting more than the other way around.

 

This is so f***ing stupid it is ridiculous. But how can we blame these guys when the media is just as f***ing stupid. Last night on prime time sports they were trying to figure out the last time a good hitting team won the series. AND THEY f***ING COULDN'T.

 

2013 Sox, 2011 Cards, 2009 Yanks -- were hitting dominant teams. Your not going to make the Series if your pitching sucks rocks. However these teams had dominant hitting.

 

1993 Blue f***ing Jays -- won all their series games with 8 or more f***ing runs.

 

Blue Jays - lets win 15-14 against a bunch of beer leaguers. Let's win 8-6 on a last minute famous homerun.

 

I KNOW HALF OF f***ING YOU WEREN'T EVEN BORN IN 1993 and ARE SICK OF HEARING OF IT!!!! And that's fine.

 

But Bob McCowan was godamn alive and well in '93 -- and as a media member it's his job to say - "Remember in 1993 when they won 8-3, 11-3, and then f***ing 15-14"

 

15 TO f***ING 14

 

That is winning the series with hitting.

[Terminator]

I'd be fine with bringing back the same lineup and I think we have enough pieces to fill out a bench. We'll have to add a backup C.

 

We need Starting Pitching and to add to the bullpen.

 

I'm not sure what I'd do with Osuna. It's tempting to just take the free WAR and a half as a reliever but I guess it depends on how effective you think he'd be as a starter. We'd also probably have to stop throwing him as a starter at some point midseason and move him to the bullpen right?

 

Luckily there are a lot of SP options next year but we are going to need to add at least 3.

[RealAccountant]

^ I'd have zero reservations about bringing Navarro back

[Terminator]

^ I'd have zero reservations about bringing Navarro back

 

Yeah I mean if the price is right and we bring Estrada back it would make a lot of sense.

[Brownie19]

This is so f***ing stupid it is ridiculous. But how can we blame these guys when the media is just as f***ing stupid. Last night on prime time sports they were trying to figure out the last time a good hitting team won the series. AND THEY f***ING COULDN'T.

 

2013 Sox, 2011 Cards, 2009 Yanks -- were hitting dominant teams. Your not going to make the Series if your pitching sucks rocks. However these teams had dominant hitting.

 

1993 Blue f***ing Jays -- won all their series games with 8 or more f***ing runs.

 

Blue Jays - lets win 15-14 against a bunch of beer leaguers. Let's win 8-6 on a last minute famous homerun.

 

I KNOW HALF OF f***ING YOU WEREN'T EVEN BORN IN 1993 and ARE SICK OF HEARING OF IT!!!! And that's fine.

 

But Bob McCowan was godamn alive and well in '93 -- and as a media member it's his job to say - "Remember in 1993 when they won 8-3, 11-3, and then f***ing 15-14"

 

15 TO f***ING 14

 

That is winning the series with hitting.

 

I was thinking the same thing during this segment. I thought surely to god one of these maroons is going to say "well we could go as far back as the '93 Blue Jays, who's pitching was abysmal with Ace Jack Morris rocking a 6.19 ERA, Dave Stewart at 4.44 ERA, Guzman walking 4.5 per 9 to a 3.99 ERA and Stottlemyer with a 4.84 ERA"

 

But no - heaven forbid these guys do a hint of research before being paid to speak on the topic.

[OBPlover]

This is so f***ing stupid it is ridiculous. But how can we blame these guys when the media is just as f***ing stupid. Last night on prime time sports they were trying to figure out the last time a good hitting team won the series. AND THEY f***ING COULDN'T.

 

2013 Sox, 2011 Cards, 2009 Yanks -- were hitting dominant teams. Your not going to make the Series if your pitching sucks rocks. However these teams had dominant hitting.

 

1993 Blue f***ing Jays -- won all their series games with 8 or more f***ing runs.

 

Blue Jays - lets win 15-14 against a bunch of beer leaguers. Let's win 8-6 on a last minute famous homerun.

 

I KNOW HALF OF f***ING YOU WEREN'T EVEN BORN IN 1993 and ARE SICK OF HEARING OF IT!!!! And that's fine.

 

But Bob McCowan was godamn alive and well in '93 -- and as a media member it's his job to say - "Remember in 1993 when they won 8-3, 11-3, and then f***ing 15-14"

 

15 TO f***ING 14

 

That is winning the series with hitting.

 

a) you need to seriously calm down. Take a chill pill. Count to 10. There's really no need to get stressed out over this. What's the worst that can happen? The Jays believe they can't win the playoffs with bad pitching so they go out and spend the money on David Price? Oh the horror.

 

If you recall, in 1993, offense was way up across the league. The Jays had a team ERA of 4.22 which was actually good for 5th in the league, just a few pips back of 4th place Seattle at 4.20. The Jays were not a pitching poor team.

 

c) Nobody has ever said that good pitching will win out 100% of the time. In a short series, anything can happen. You and other posters are using small sample sizes like "the 1993 Jays" to prove your point, it's no difference than using the 2015 Mets to prove a point. You would have to go over many years' worth of data and crunch out the numbers to make wide sweeping conclusions.

[Laika]

Steamer is out, so we can kind of see what's needed, according to the computer:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/10/23/the-2016-blue-jays-according-to-steamer/

[Grant77]

Steamer is out, so we can kind of see what's needed, according to the computer:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/10/23/the-2016-blue-jays-according-to-steamer/

 

Fairly solid projection on Pompey. I'm pretty comfortable giving him the LF job next year and dealing Revere.

 

What kind of SP do you think we could get for him? Perhaps the Padres might have interest in Revere + for Tyson Ross

[Cyborg]

Fairly solid projection on Pompey. I'm pretty comfortable giving him the LF job next year and dealing Revere.

 

What kind of SP do you think we could get for him? Perhaps the Padres might have interest in Revere + for Tyson Ross

LOL no. I don't think you could get a MLB SP. We traded 2 s***** prospects that have almost no value for Revere and $1M+. He has almost no value. Phillies must have shopped him everywhere.

[Grant77]

LOL no. I don't think you could get a MLB SP. We traded 2 s***** prospects that have almost no value for Revere and $1M+. He has almost no value. Phillies must have shopped him everywhere.

 

He's a very safe bet for 2 WAR and will only make 6-7 million, so there's a fair bit of surplus value. We gave up J.A. Happ for a guy with similar value.

[Cyborg]

He's a very safe bet for 2 WAR and will only make 6-7 million, so there's a fair bit of surplus value. We gave up J.A. Happ for a guy with similar value.

Then why did they give him away for almost free?

[Boxcar]

Fairly solid projection on Pompey. I'm pretty comfortable giving him the LF job next year and dealing Revere.

 

What kind of SP do you think we could get for him? Perhaps the Padres might have interest in Revere + for Tyson Ross

 

Lmfao

[Orgfiller]

Fairly solid projection on Pompey. I'm pretty comfortable giving him the LF job next year and dealing Revere.

 

What kind of SP do you think we could get for him? Perhaps the Padres might have interest in Revere + for Tyson Ross

 

Lmao

[Laika]

Then why did they give him away for almost free?

 

Amaro?

 

Fairly solid projection on Pompey. I'm pretty comfortable giving him the LF job next year and dealing Revere.

 

What kind of SP do you think we could get for him? Perhaps the Padres might have interest in Revere + for Tyson Ross

 

Much worse than Ross. Ross projects for like, 4 WAR (before adding appropriate injury risk).

 

I'd think something more like league average SP with a year of control. Maybe a swing man type with some control.

[Grant77]

Lmao

 

I don't see how you can criticize it when you don't even know what the + would be. I'm not proposing Ryan Goins for Mike Trout. He's a decent SP with 1 year of control.

[Orgfiller]

I don't see how you can criticize it when you don't even know what the + would be. I'm not proposing Ryan Goins for Mike Trout. He's a decent SP with 1 year of control.

 

That's like me saying the Jays should trade Cliff Pennington+ for Josh Reddick. The + generally represents a smaller piece, a deal centered around Revere is not getting you Tyson Ross.

 

Ross is not a "decent" SP, he's quite good actually.

[saskjayfan]

at a boy goins

[Grant77]

That's like me saying the Jays should trade Cliff Pennington+ for Josh Reddick. The + generally represents a smaller piece, a deal centered around Revere is not getting you Tyson Ross.

 

Ross is not a "decent" SP, he's quite good actually.

 

No, it's not at all. Cliff Pennington might not even get a major league deal. I'm not going to fight with you over semantics, I know Ross' stats and abilities as well as you do.

[Grant77]

Amaro?

 

 

 

Much worse than Ross. Ross projects for like, 4 WAR (before adding appropriate injury risk).

 

I'd think something more like league average SP with a year of control. Maybe a swing man type with some control.

 

I was first going to bring up Randall Delgado, but they don't match up for Revere.

[John_Havok]

Get Ben Zobrist

[Grant77]

and Ben Zobrist is a f***ing piece of s***.

[RealAccountant]

Get Ben Zobrist

 

And move EE

 

f***er is LHB and plays like every position.

[L54]

Ben Zobrist to the Mets

[Orgfiller]

No, it's not at all. Cliff Pennington might not even get a major league deal. I'm not going to fight with you over semantics, I know Ross' stats and abilities as well as you do.

 

I'm not sure that you do, his biggest concerns are his mechanics and potential injury history that may come with it. Revere is a 1-2 win player, which isn't nothing, but it certainly isn't on the level of a starter of Ross' caliber.

 

Guess the starters: 205.0 IP, 3.34 ERA/2.92 FIP/3.06 xFIP/5.0 WAR

196.0 IP 3.26 ERA/2.98 FIP/3.15 xFIP/4.4 WAR

212.1 IP, 3.65 ERA/3.47 FIP/3.40 xFIP/4.2 WAR

 

Two of them are considered aces/#1 pitchers across baseball.

[Grant77]

I'm not sure that you do, his biggest concerns are his mechanics and potential injury history that may come with it. Revere is a 1-2 win player, which isn't nothing, but it certainly isn't on the level of a starter of Ross' caliber.

 

Guess the starters: 205.0 IP, 3.34 ERA/2.92 FIP/3.06 xFIP/5.0 WAR

196.0 IP 3.26 ERA/2.98 FIP/3.15 xFIP/4.4 WAR

212.1 IP, 3.65 ERA/3.47 FIP/3.40 xFIP/4.2 WAR

 

Two of them are considered aces/#1 pitchers across baseball.

 

I had the fangraphs page up before I even mentioned him. This exercise accomplishes nothing, I know how to read and interpret statistics as well as you do.

 

I'll also say once again, that I was not proposing a straight up deal. It's a f***ing message board, you can't infer what I meant.

[Orgfiller]

I had the fangraphs page up before I even mentioned him. This exercise accomplishes nothing, I know how to read and interpret statistics as well as you do.

 

I'll also say once again, that I was not proposing a straight up deal. It's a f***ing message board, you can't infer what I meant.

 

You said Revere+, like every other hypothetical ever posted here in the form Player X+, I assumed that Player X was headlining our end. Usually when people post something like Revere+ they don't mean Revere + Encarnacion.

[Grant77]

You said Revere+, like every other hypothetical ever posted here in the form Player X+, I assumed that Player X was headlining our end. Usually when people post something like Revere+ they don't mean Revere + Encarnacion.

 

I mean something like Revere + Reid-Foley. Just going with 7 mil/WAR for simplicity, you're talking about 10 million in surplus value for Revere. Ross is harder to peg, but put him at his 3 year average of 3.2 and he's got ~21 million in surplus value over his 2 seasons using some quick arb estimates from MLBTR.

 

I was really just throwing out names, but there's proof that the idea is hardly egregious.

[goldbug103]

A better manager might be useful. Gibbons is well below league average.

[GD]

I mean something like Revere + Reid-Foley. Just going with 7 mil/WAR for simplicity, you're talking about 10 million in surplus value for Revere. Ross is harder to peg, but put him at his 3 year average of 3.2 and he's got ~21 million in surplus value over his 2 seasons using some quick arb estimates from MLBTR.

 

I was really just throwing out names, but there's proof that the idea is hardly egregious.

 

How do you figure? More like $1m, at most.